Arch Capital Group 10-Q 2023-09-30

UNITED STATES

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-Q

Commission file number: 001-16209

ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Exchange Act:

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days. Yes ☑ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically every Interactive Data File required to be submitted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit such files). Yes ☑ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company, or an emerging growth company. See the definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company,” and “emerging growth company” in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.

Large Accelerated Filer ☑ Accelerated Filer ☐ Non-accelerated Filer ☐ Smaller reporting company ☐ Emerging growth company ☐

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the Registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the Registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act). Yes ☐ No ☑

As of November 6, 2023, there were 373,171,909 common shares, $0.0011 par value per share, of the registrant outstanding.

ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD.

INDEX TO FORM 10-Q

PART I. FINANCIAL INFORMATION

Cautionary Note Regarding Forward-Looking Statements

The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (“PSLRA”) provides a “safe harbor” for forward-looking statements. This report or any other written or oral statements made by or on behalf of us may include forward-looking statements, which reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in or incorporated by reference in this report are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements, for purposes of the PSLRA or otherwise, can generally be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “believe” or “continue” and similar statements of a future or forward-looking nature or their negative or variations or similar terminology.

Forward-looking statements involve our current assessment of risks and uncertainties. Actual events and results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Important factors that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those indicated in such statements are discussed below and elsewhere in this report and in our periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”), and include:

• our ability to successfully implement our business strategy during “soft” as well as “hard” markets;

• acceptance of our business strategy, security and financial condition by rating agencies and regulators, as well as by brokers and our insureds and reinsureds;

• our ability to consummate acquisitions and integrate the business we have acquired or may acquire into our existing operations;

• our ability to maintain or improve our ratings, which may be affected by our ability to raise additional equity or debt financings, by ratings agencies’ existing or new policies and practices, as well as other factors described herein;

• general economic and market conditions (including inflation, interest rates, unemployment, housing prices, foreign currency exchange rates, prevailing credit terms and the depth and duration of a recession, including those resulting from COVID-19) and conditions specific to the reinsurance and insurance markets in which we operate;

• competition, including increased competition, on the basis of pricing, capacity (including alternative sources of capital), coverage terms, or other factors;

• developments in the world’s financial and capital markets and our access to such markets;

• our ability to successfully enhance, integrate and maintain operating procedures (including information technology) to effectively support our current and new business;

• the loss and addition of key personnel;

• material differences between actual and expected assessments for guaranty funds and mandatory pooling arrangements;

• accuracy of those estimates and judgments utilized in the preparation of our financial statements, including those related to revenue recognition, insurance and other reserves, reinsurance recoverables, investment valuations, intangible assets, bad debts, income taxes, contingencies and litigation, and any determination to use the deposit method of accounting;

• greater than expected loss ratios on business written by us and adverse development on claim and/or claim expense liabilities related to business written by our insurance, reinsurance and mortgage subsidiaries;

• the adequacy of the Company’s loss reserves;

• severity and/or frequency of losses;

• greater frequency or severity of unpredictable natural and man-made catastrophic events;

• claims for natural or man-made catastrophic events or severe economic events in our insurance, reinsurance and mortgage businesses could cause large losses and substantial volatility in our results of operations;

• the effect of climate change on our business;

• the effect of contagious diseases (including COVID-19) on our business;

• acts of terrorism, political unrest and other hostilities or other unforecasted and unpredictable events;

• availability to us of reinsurance to manage our gross and net exposures and the cost of such reinsurance;

• the failure of reinsurers, managing general agents, third party administrators or others to meet their obligations to us;

• the timing of loss payments being faster or the receipt of reinsurance recoverables being slower than anticipated by us;

• our investment performance, including legislative or regulatory developments that may adversely affect the fair value of our investments;

• changes in general economic conditions, including sovereign debt concerns or downgrades of U.S. securities by credit rating agencies, which could affect our business, financial condition and results of operations;

• the volatility of our shareholders’ equity from foreign currency fluctuations, which could increase due to us not matching portions of our projected liabilities in foreign currencies with investments in the same currencies;

• changes in accounting principles or policies or in our application of such accounting principles or policies;

• changes in the political environment of certain countries in which we operate or underwrite business;

• a disruption caused by cyber attacks or other technology breaches or failures on us or our business partners and service providers, which could negatively impact our business and/or expose us to litigation;

• statutory or regulatory developments, including as to tax matters and insurance and other regulatory matters such as the adoption of proposed legislation that would affect Bermuda-headquartered companies and/or Bermuda-based insurers or reinsurers and/or changes in regulations or tax laws applicable to us, our subsidiaries, brokers or customers, including the implementation of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (“OECD”) Pillar I and Pillar II initiatives and the possible enactment of a recently proposed Bermuda corporate income tax; and

• the other matters set forth under Item 1A “Risk Factors,” Item 7 “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” and other sections of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022, as well as the other factors set forth in our other documents on file with the SEC, and management’s response to any of the aforementioned factors.

All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to us or persons acting on our behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by these cautionary statements. The foregoing review of important factors should not be construed as exhaustive and should be read in conjunction with other cautionary statements that are included herein or elsewhere. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS

(U.S. dollars and shares in millions)

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The following is a discussion and analysis of our financial condition and results of operations. This should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements included in Item 1 of this report and also our Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations contained in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022 (“2022 Form 10-K”). In addition, readers should review “Risk Factors” set forth in Item 1A of Part I of our 2022 Form 10-K and “ITEM 1A—Risk Factors” of this Form 10-Q. All amounts are in millions, except per share amounts, unless otherwise noted.

Arch Capital Group Ltd. (“Arch Capital” and, together with its subsidiaries, “Arch”, “we”, “our” or “us”) is a publicly listed Bermuda exempted company with approximately $18.0 billion in capital at September 30, 2023 and, through operations in Bermuda, the United States, Europe, Canada and Australia, writes insurance, reinsurance and mortgage insurance on a worldwide basis.

CURRENT OUTLOOK

As we near the end of 2023 and look ahead to 2024, our objective to deliver long term value for our shareholders remains the same. With our commitment to underwriting acumen, prudent reserving and cycle-focused capital allocation, we were able to deliver another profitable quarter. The 2023 third quarter net income available to Arch common shareholder was $713 million, primarily reflecting strong underwriting returns. Our underwriting teams capitalized on good market conditions and relatively light catastrophe losses to produce an outstanding $721 million of underwriting income in the 2023 third quarter. Financial highlights for the quarter included book value per share growth of 4.3% and annualized net income and operating returns on average common equity of 20.2% and 24.8%, respectively. See “Comment on Non-GAAP Financial Measures.”

Our property and casualty underwriting teams continued to lean into attractive market conditions where excellent risk-adjusted returns remain available resulting in $3.1 billion of net premium written in the 2023 third quarter, up 26% from one year ago. Broadly, we continue to achieve rate increases above loss trend in most sectors of the property and casualty market. Although rate increases are slowing in some lines, they are re-accelerating in others, which is a good reminder that there is not a single insurance cycle, but many. We continue to execute our cycle management strategy by actively allocating capital to the segments with the best risk-adjusted returns.

In our insurance segment, we continue to take advantage of favorable global market conditions. Growth in net premiums written in the insurance segment was over 11% in the 2023 third quarter. Such growth was more broad-based because of our focus on small and medium-sized specialty accounts. Although pricing has declined in some lines, such as large public directors’ and officers’ liability insurance, the property and casualty markets in which our insurance segment operates generally continue to provide adequate returns.

As underwriting opportunities arise, our reinsurance segment is able to react quickly and significantly when markets pivot. In the reinsurance property market, our overall exposure to property catastrophe risk remains well below our self-imposed threshold (see “Catastrophic and Severe Economic Events”) and, because of our diversified portfolio and broad set of opportunities, we retain the flexibility to pursue the most attractive returns across lines and geographies. Our expectation is that we will continue to see hard property market conditions through next year’s renewal cycle as loss activity remains elevated.

Inflation continues to be a focus for our industry. We proactively analyze available data and we incorporate emerging trends into our pricing and reserving. We believe

that this discipline, coupled with increases in future investment returns and prudent reserving, allows us to maximize the capabilities of our diversified platform.

Our mortgage segment continues to deliver a steady level of earnings for our shareholders. Higher persistency of our in force U.S. primary mortgage insurance portfolio helped offset the slight decrease in new insurance written, which has been affected by a lower volume of mortgage originations primarily as a result of higher mortgage rates. We continue to see meaningful opportunities for the mortgage segment outside of the U.S. and our strategic decision to diversify our mortgage operations is yielding positive results.

FINANCIAL MEASURES

Management uses the following three key financial indicators in evaluating our performance and measuring the overall growth in value generated for Arch Capital’s common shareholders:

Book Value per Share

Book value per share represents total common shareholders’ equity available to Arch divided by the number of common shares outstanding. Management uses growth in book value per share as a key measure of the value generated for our common shareholders each period and believes that book value per share is the key driver of Arch Capital’s share price over time. Book value per share is impacted by, among other factors, our underwriting results, investment returns and share repurchase activity, which has an accretive or dilutive impact on book value per share depending on the purchase price. Book value per share was $38.62 at September 30, 2023, compared to $37.04 at June 30, 2023, and $29.69 at September 30, 2022. The 4.3% increase in book value per share for the 2023 third quarter reflected strong underwriting results.

Operating Return on Average Common Equity

Operating return on average common equity (“Operating ROAE”) represents annualized after-tax operating income available to Arch common shareholders divided by the average of beginning and ending common sha

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Reference is made to the information appearing above under the subheading “Market Sensitive Instruments and Risk Management” under the caption “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations,” which information is hereby incorporated by reference.

Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures

In connection with the filing of this Form 10-Q, our management, including the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, conducted an evaluation, as of the end of the period covered by this report, for the purposes set forth in the applicable rules under the Securities and Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”). Based on that evaluation, the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer concluded that the disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of the end of and during the period covered by this report with respect to information being recorded, processed, summarized and reported within time periods specified in the SEC’s rules and forms and with respect to timely communication to them and other members of management responsible for preparing periodic reports of all material information required to be disclosed in this report as it relates to Arch Capital and its consolidated subsidiaries.

We continue to enhance our operating procedures and internal controls to effectively support our business and our regulatory and reporting requirements. Our management does not expect that our disclosure controls or our internal controls will prevent all errors and all fraud. A control system, no matter how well conceived and operated, can provide only reasonable, not absolute, assurance that the objectives of the control system are met. Further, the design of a control system must reflect the fact that there are resource constraints, and the benefits of controls must be considered relative to their costs. As a result of the inherent limitations in all control systems, no evaluation of controls can provide absolute assurance that all control issues and instances of fraud, if any, within the company have been detected. These inherent limitations include the realities that judgments in decision-making can be faulty, and that breakdowns can occur because of simple error or mistake. Additionally, controls can be circumvented by the individual acts of some persons or by collusion of two or more people. The design of any system of controls also is based in part upon certain assumptions about the likelihood of future events, and there can be no assurance that any design will succeed in achieving

its stated goals under all potential future conditions; over time, controls may become inadequate because of changes in conditions, or the degree of compliance with the policies or procedures may deteriorate. As a result of the inherent limitations in a cost-effective control system, misstatement due to error or fraud may occur and not be detected. Accordingly, our disclosure controls and procedures are designed to provide reasonable, not absolute, assurance that the disclosure controls and procedures are met.

Changes in Internal Controls Over Financial Reporting

There have been no changes in internal control over financial reporting that occurred during the quarter ended September 30, 2023 that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, internal control over financial reporting. We have not experienced any material impact to our internal controls over financial reporting.

PART II. OTHER INFORMATION

ITEM 1. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS

We, in common with the insurance industry in general, are subject to litigation and arbitration in the normal course of our business. As of September 30, 2023, we were not a party to any litigation or arbitration which is expected by management to have a material adverse effect on our results of operations and financial condition and liquidity.

There were no material changes from the risk factors previously disclosed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022.

ITEM 2. UNREGISTERED SALES OF EQUITY SECURITIES AND USE OF PROCEEDS

Issuer’s Repurchases of Equity Securities

The following table summarizes our purchases of common shares for the 2023 third quarter:

(1)This column represents (in whole shares) open market share repurchases, including an aggregate of 6,197, 480 and 636 shares repurchased by Arch Capital during July, August and September, respectively, other than through publicly announced plans or programs. We repurchased these shares from employees in order to facilitate the payment of withholding taxes on restricted shares granted and the exercise of stock appreciation rights, in each case at their fair value as determined by reference to the closing price of our common shares on the day the restricted shares vested or the stock appreciation rights were exercised.

(2)This column represents the remaining approximate dollar amount available at the end of each applicable period under Arch Capital’s $1.0 billion share repurchase authorization, authorized by the Board of Directors of ACGL on December 19, 2022. Repurchases may be effected from time to time in open market or privately negotiated transactions through December 31, 2024.

ITEM 3. DEFAULTS UPON SENIOR SECURITIES

None.

ITEM 4. MINE SAFETY DISCLOSURES

Not applicable.

During the three months ended September 30, 2023, none of the Company’s directors or officers (as defined in Rule 16a-1(f) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934) adopted or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement (as such terms are defined in Item 408 of Regulation S-K of the Securities Act of 1933).

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.