Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
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Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
We are exposed to potential loss from various market risks, in particular interest rate risk and credit risk. Additionally, we are exposed, to a lesser extent, to foreign exchange risk.
Interest rate risk is the possibility that the fair value of liabilities will change more or less than the market value of investments in response to changes in interest rates, including changes in investment yields and changes in spreads due to credit risks and other factors.
Credit risk is the possibility that counterparties may not be able to meet payment obligations when they become due. We assume counterparty credit risk in many forms. A counterparty is any person or entity from which cash or other forms of consideration are expected to extinguish a liability or obligation to us. We have exposure to credit risk primarily from customers, as a holder of fixed maturity securities and by entering into reinsurance cessions.
Foreign exchange risk is the possibility that changes in exchange rates produce an adverse effect on earnings and equity when measured in domestic currency. This risk is largest when assets backing liabilities payable in one currency are invested in
financial instruments of another currency. Our general principle is to invest in assets that match the currency in which we expect the liabilities to be paid.
Interest Rate Risk
Interest rate risk arises as we invest substantial funds in interest-sensitive fixed income assets, such as fixed maturity securities, mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities and commercial mortgage loans, primarily in the U.S. and Canada. There are two forms of interest rate risk – price risk and reinvestment risk. Price risk occurs when fluctuations in interest rates have a direct impact on the market valuation of these investments. As interest rates rise, the market value of these investments falls, and conversely, as interest rates fall, the market value of these investments rises. Reinvestment risk is primarily associated with the need to reinvest cash flows (primarily coupons and maturities) in an unfavorable lower interest rate environment. In addition, for securities with embedded options such as callable bonds, mortgage-backed securities and certain asset-backed securities, reinvestment risk occurs when fluctuations in interest rates have a direct impact on expected cash flows. As interest rates fall, an increase in prepayments on these assets results in earlier than expected receipt of cash flows, forcing us to reinvest the proceeds in an unfavorable lower interest rate environment. Conversely, as interest rates rise, a decrease in prepayments on these assets results in later than expected receipt of cash flows, forcing us to forgo reinvesting in a favorable higher interest rate environment.
We manage interest rate risk by selecting investments with characteristics such as duration, yield, currency and liquidity tailored to the anticipated cash outflow characteristics of our insurance and reinsurance liabilities.
The interest rate sensitivity relating to price risk of our fixed maturity securities investment portfolio is assessed using hypothetical scenarios that assume several positive and negative parallel shifts of the yield curves. We have assumed that the U.S. and Canadian yield curve shifts are equal in direction and magnitude. The individual securities are repriced under each scenario using a valuation model. For investments such as callable bonds and mortgage-backed and asset-backed securities, a prepayment model is used in conjunction with a valuation model. Our actual experience may differ from the results noted below particularly due to assumptions utilized or if events occur that were not included in the methodology. The following tables summarize the results of this analysis for bonds, mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities held in our investment portfolio as of the dates indicated:
| Interest Rate Movement Analysis of Market Value of Fixed Maturity Securities Investment Portfolio | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| -100 bps | -50 bps | Base | 50 bps | 100 bps | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total market value | $ | 7,597.1 | $ | 7,402.0 | $ | 7,215.3 | $ | 7,036.7 | $ | 6,865.7 | |||||||||||||||||||
| % change in market value from base case | 5.29 | % | 2.59 | % | — | % | (2.48) | % | (4.85) | % | |||||||||||||||||||
| $ change in market value from base case | $ | 381.8 | $ | 186.7 | $ | — | $ | (178.6) | $ | (349.6) | |||||||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| -100 bps | -50 bps | Base | 50 bps | 100 bps | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total market value | $ | 7,067.4 | $ | 6,905.8 | $ | 6,815.5 | $ | 6,601.4 | $ | 6,457.2 | |||||||||||||||||||
| % change in market value from base case | 3.70 | % | 1.32 | % | — | % | (3.14) | % | (5.26) | % | |||||||||||||||||||
| $ change in market value from base case | $ | 251.9 | $ | 90.3 | $ | — | $ | (214.1) | $ | (358.3) |
The interest rate sensitivity relating to reinvestment risk of our fixed maturity securities investment portfolio is assessed using hypothetical scenarios that assume purchases in the primary market and consider the effects of interest rates on sales. The effects of embedded options, including call or put features are not considered. Our actual results may differ from the results noted below particularly due to assumptions utilized or if events occur that were not included in the methodology.
The following tables summarize the results of this analysis on our reported portfolio yield as of the dates indicated:
| Interest Rate Movement Analysis of Portfolio Yield of Fixed Maturity Securities Investment Portfolio | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2021 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| -100 bps | -50 bps | Base | 50 bps | 100 bps | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Portfolio yield | 3.23 | % | 3.39 | % | 3.55 | % | 3.71 | % | 3.87 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
| % change in portfolio yield | (0.32) | % | (0.16) | % | — | % | 0.16 | % | 0.32 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2020 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| -100 bps | -50 bps | Base | 50 bps | 100 bps | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Portfolio yield | 3.51 | % | 3.63 | % | 3.76 | % | 3.89 | % | 4.01 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
| % change in portfolio yield | (0.25) | % | (0.13) | % | — | % | 0.13 | % | 0.25 | % |
Credit Risk
We have exposure to credit risk primarily from customers, as a holder of fixed maturity securities and by entering into reinsurance cessions.
Our risk management strategy and investment policy is to invest in debt instruments of high credit quality issuers and to limit the amount of credit exposure with respect to any one issuer. We attempt to limit our credit exposure by imposing fixed maturity portfolio limits on individual issuers based upon credit quality. Currently our portfolio limits are 1.5% for issuers rated AA- and above, 1% for issuers rated A- to A+, 0.75% for issuers rated BBB- to BBB+, 0.38% for issuers rated BB- to BB+ and 0.25% for issuers rated B and below. These portfolio limits are further reduced for certain issuers with whom we have credit exposure on reinsurance agreements. For our portfolio limits, we use credit ratings from Moody’s, S&P, Fitch Ratings, Inc. and DBRS, Inc. (collectively, the “NRSROs”) to determine an issuer’s rating. When three or more credit ratings are available for an issuer, the second lowest rating will be used. When two or fewer credit ratings are available for an issuer, the lower rating will be used.
The following table presents our fixed maturity securities investment portfolio by ratings of the NRSROs as of the dates indicated:
| December 31, 2021 | December 31, 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rating | Fair Value | Percentage of Total | Fair Value | Percentage of Total | |||||||||||||||||||
| Aaa/Aa/A | $ | 4,066.5 | 56.4 | % | $ | 4,051.3 | 59.5 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Baa | 2,719.0 | 37.7 | % | 2,288.1 | 33.6 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Ba | 333.7 | 4.6 | % | 384.4 | 5.6 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| B and lower | 96.1 | 1.3 | % | 91.7 | 1.3 | % | |||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 7,215.3 | 100.0 | % | $ | 6,815.5 | 100.0 | % |
We are also exposed to the credit risk of our reinsurers. When we purchase reinsurance, we are still liable to our insureds regardless of whether we get reimbursed by our reinsurer. As part of our overall risk and capacity management strategy, we purchase reinsurance for certain risks underwritten by our various business segments as described above under “Item 7 – Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations – Critical Accounting Estimates – Reinsurance.”
We had $6.18 billion and $6.61 billion of reinsurance recoverables as of December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, the majority of which are protected from credit risk by various types of risk mitigation mechanisms such as trusts, letters of credit or by withholding the assets in a modified coinsurance or co-funds-withheld arrangement. For example, reserves of $410.2 million as of December 31, 2021 relating to coinsurance arrangements with John Hancock related to the sale of LTC that is backed by trusts. If the value of the assets in these trusts falls below the value of the associated liabilities, John Hancock will be required to put more assets in the trusts. We may be dependent on the financial condition of John Hancock, whose A.M. Best financial strength rating is currently A+, with a stable outlook.
As of December 31, 2021, we had $817.4 million of reinsurance recoverables from ERAC that are included in assets held for sale on our consolidated balance sheet related to the agreement to sell JALIC. A.M. Best withdrew its rating for ERAC in 2019 and there are currently no assets or other collateral backing reserves relating to the reinsurance recoverable from ERAC. General Electric Company, the ultimate parent of ERAC, has a capital maintenance agreement in place to maintain ERAC’s
RBC ratios at an acceptable regulatory level, which has been maintained in recent years through capital infusions into ERAC. For ERAC and other reinsurance recoverables that are not protected by the risk mitigation mechanisms referenced above, we are dependent on the creditworthiness of the reinsurer. See “Item 1A – Risk Factors – Financial Risks – Reinsurance may not be adequate or available to protect us against losses, and we are subject to the credit risk of reinsurers”, “Item 1A – Risk Factors – Financial Risks – Through reinsurance, we have sold or exited businesses that could again become our direct financial and administrative responsibility if the reinsurers become insolvent” and Note 18 to the Consolidated Financial Statements included elsewhere in this Report.
Foreign Exchange Risk
We are exposed to foreign exchange risk arising from our international operations, mainly in Canada. We also have foreign exchange risk exposure to the British Pound, Brazilian Real, Euro, Mexican Peso and Argentine Peso. Total invested assets denominated in currencies other than the Canadian Dollar were approximately 5% and 6% of our total invested assets at December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively.
Foreign exchange risk is mitigated by matching our liabilities under insurance policies that are payable in foreign currencies with investments that are denominated in such currencies.
The foreign exchange risk sensitivity of our fixed maturity securities denominated in Canadian Dollars, whose balance was $423.2 million and $466.5 million of the total market value as of December 31, 2021 and 2020, respectively, on our entire fixed maturity securities portfolio is summarized in the following tables:
| Foreign Exchange Movement Analysis of Market Value of Fixed Maturity Securities | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Foreign exchange spot rate at December 31, 2021, US Dollar to Canadian Dollar | -10% | -5% | 0 | 5% | 10% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total market value | $ | 7,173.0 | $ | 7,194.1 | $ | 7,215.3 | $ | 7,236.4 | $ | 7,257.6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| % change of market value from base case | (0.59) | % | (0.29) | % | — | % | 0.29 | % | 0.59 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| $ change of market value from base case | $ | (42.3) | $ | (21.2) | $ | — | $ | 21.1 | $ | 42.3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 31, 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Foreign exchange spot rate at December 31, 2020, US Dollar to Canadian Dollar | -10% | -5% | 0 | 5% | 10% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total market value | $ | 6,768.9 | $ | 6,792.2 | $ | 6,815.5 | $ | 6,838.9 | $ | 6,862.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| % change of market value from base case | (0.68) | % | (0.34) | % | — | % | 0.34 | % | 0.68 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| $ change of market value from base case | $ | (46.6) | $ | (23.3) | $ | — | $ | 23.4 | $ | 46.6 |
The foreign exchange risk sensitivity of our consolidated net income from continuing operations is assessed using hypothetical test scenarios that assume earnings in Canadian Dollars are recognized evenly throughout a period. Our actual results may differ from the results noted below particularly due to assumptions utilized or if events occur that were not included in the methodology. For more information on this risk, see “Item 1A – Risk Factors – Financial Risks – Fluctuations in the exchange rate of the U.S. Dollar and other foreign currencies may materially and adversely affect our results of operations.” The following tables summarize the results of this analysis on our reported net income from continuing operations for the periods indicated:
| Foreign Exchange Movement Analysis of Net Income from Continuing Operations | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year Ended December 31, 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Foreign exchange daily average rate for the year ended December 31, 2021, US Dollar to Canadian Dollar | -10% | -5% | 0 | 5% | 10% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income from continuing operations | $ | 610.8 | $ | 612.2 | $ | 613.5 | $ | 614.8 | $ | 616.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| % change of net income from base case | (0.44) | % | (0.21) | % | — | % | 0.21 | % | 0.44 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| $ change of net income from base case | $ | (2.7) | $ | (1.3) | $ | — | $ | 1.3 | $ | 2.7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year Ended December 31, 2020 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Foreign exchange daily average rate for the year ended December 31, 2020, US Dollar to Canadian Dollar | -10% | -5% | 0 | 5% | 10% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income from continuing operations | $ | 517.6 | $ | 519.0 | $ | 520.4 | $ | 521.8 | $ | 523.2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| % change of net income from base case | (0.54) | % | (0.27) | % | — | % | 0.27 | % | 0.54 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| $ change of net income from base case | $ | (2.8) | $ | (1.4) | $ | — | $ | 1.4 | $ | 2.8 |
Derivatives
Derivatives are financial instruments whose values are derived from interest rates, foreign exchange rates, financial indices or the prices of securities or commodities. Derivative financial instruments may be exchange-traded or contracted in the over-the-counter market and include swaps, futures, options and forward contracts.
Under insurance statutes, our insurance companies may use derivative financial instruments to hedge actual or anticipated changes in their assets or liabilities, to replicate cash market instruments or for certain income-generating activities. These statutes generally prohibit the use of derivatives for speculative purposes. We generally do not use derivative financial instruments.
In accordance with the guidance on embedded derivatives, we have bifurcated the modified coinsurance agreement with Talcott Resolution into its debt host and embedded derivative (total return swap) and recorded the embedded derivative at fair value in the consolidated balance sheets. The invested assets related to this modified coinsurance agreement are included in other investments in the consolidated balance sheets.
For additional information on derivatives, see Notes 8 and 19 to the Consolidated Financial Statements included elsewhere in this Report.
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