Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
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Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Market Risk
Our primary market risk exposures are interest rate, equity price, foreign currency exchange rate and credit risk. Equity price and interest rate fluctuations can have a significant impact on our results of operations, primarily due to the effects they have on the asset management and other asset-based fees we earn, the spread income generated on our fixed deferred annuities, fixed insurance, brokerage client cash balances, banking deposits, face-amount certificate products, fixed portion of our variable annuities and variable insurance contracts, the value of deferred acquisition costs (“DAC”) and deferred sales inducement costs (“DSIC”) assets, the value of liabilities for guaranteed benefits associated with our variable annuities and the value of derivatives held to hedge these benefits.
RiverSource Life has the following variable annuity guarantee benefits: guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits (“GMWB”), guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits (“GMAB”), guaranteed minimum death benefits (“GMDB”) and guaranteed minimum income benefits (“GMIB”). Each of these benefits guarantees payouts to the annuity holder under certain specific conditions regardless of the performance of the underlying invested assets.
The variable annuity guarantees continue to be managed by utilizing a hedging program which attempts to match the sensitivity of the assets with the sensitivity of the liabilities. This approach works with the premise that matched sensitivities will produce a highly effective hedging result. Our comprehensive hedging program focuses mainly on first order sensitivities of assets and liabilities: Equity Market Level (Delta), Interest Rate Level (Rho) and Volatility (Vega). Additionally, various second order sensitivities are managed. We use various options, swaptions, swaps and futures to manage risk exposures. The exposures are measured and monitored daily, and adjustments to the hedge portfolio are made as necessary.
We have a macro hedge program to provide protection against the statutory tail scenario risk arising from variable annuity reserves on our statutory surplus and to cover some of the residual risks not covered by other hedging activities. We assess the residual risk under a range of scenarios in creating and executing the macro hedge program. As a means of economically hedging these risks, we may use a combination of futures, options, swaps and swaptions. Certain of the macro hedge derivatives used contain settlement provisions linked to both equity returns and interest rates; the remaining are interest rate contracts or equity contracts. The macro hedge program could result in additional earnings volatility as changes in the value of the macro hedge derivatives, which are designed to reduce statutory capital volatility, may not be closely aligned to changes in the variable annuity guarantee embedded derivatives.
To evaluate interest rate and equity price risk we perform sensitivity testing which measures the impact on pretax income from the sources listed below for a 12-month period following a hypothetical 100 basis point increase in interest rates or a hypothetical 10% decline in equity prices. The interest rate risk test assumes a sudden 100 basis point parallel shift in the yield curve, with rates then staying at those levels for the next 12 months. The equity price risk test assumes a sudden 10% drop in equity prices, with equity prices then staying at those levels for the next 12 months. In estimating the values of variable annuities, indexed annuities, stock market certificates, indexed universal life (“IUL”) insurance and the associated hedge assets, we assume no change in implied market volatility despite the 10% drop in equity prices.
The following tables present our estimate of the impact on pretax income from the above defined hypothetical market movements as of December 31, 2022:
| Equity Price Decline 10% | Equity Price Exposure to Pretax Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Before Hedge Impact | Hedge Impact | Net Impact | |||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Asset-based management and distribution fees (1) | $ | (285) | $ | 2 | $ | (283) | |||||||||||||||||
| DAC and DSIC amortization (2)(3) | (43) | — | (43) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Variable annuities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| GMDB and GMIB (3) | (33) | — | (33) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| GMWB (3) | (534) | 489 | (45) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| GMAB | (31) | 31 | — | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Structured variable annuities | 494 | (463) | 31 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| DAC and DSIC amortization (4) | N/A | N/A | (4) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Total variable annuities | (104) | 57 | (51) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Macro hedge program (5) | — | 230 | 230 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Certificates | 1 | (1) | — | ||||||||||||||||||||
| IUL insurance | 15 | (30) | (15) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | (416) | $ | 258 | $ | (162) | (6) |
N/A Not Applicable
| Interest Rate Increase 100 Basis Points | Interest Rate Exposure to Pretax Income | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Before Hedge Impact | Hedge Impact | Net Impact | |||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Asset-based management and distribution fees (1) | $ | (53) | $ | — | $ | (53) | |||||||||||||||||
| Variable annuities: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| GMWB | 702 | (766) | (64) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| GMAB | 1 | (1) | — | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Structured variable annuities | (29) | 183 | 154 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| DAC and DSIC amortization (4) | N/A | N/A | (18) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Total variable annuities | 674 | (584) | 72 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Macro hedge program (5) | — | (313) | (313) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed annuities, fixed insurance and fixed portion of variable annuities and variable insurance products | 57 | — | 57 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Banking deposits | 28 | — | 28 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Brokerage client cash balances | 146 | — | 146 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Certificates | (9) | — | (9) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| IUL insurance | 18 | 2 | 20 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 861 | $ | (895) | $ | (52) |
N/A Not Applicable.
(1) Excludes incentive income which is impacted by market and fund performance during the period and cannot be readily estimated.
(2) Market impact on DAC and DSIC amortization resulting from lower projected profits.
(3) In estimating the impact to pretax income on DAC and DSIC amortization and additional insurance benefit reserves, our assumed equity asset growth rates reflect what management would follow in its mean reversion guidelines.
(4) Market impact on DAC and DSIC amortization related to variable annuity riders and structured variable annuities is modeled net of hedge impact.
(5) The market impact of the macro hedge program is modeled net of any related impact to DAC and DSIC amortization.
(6) Represents the net impact to pretax income. The estimated net impact to pretax adjusted operating income is $(283) million.
The above results compare to an estimated negative net impact to pretax income of $190 million related to a 10% equity price decline and an estimated positive net impact to pretax income of $80 million related to a 100 basis point increase in interest rates as of December 31, 2021. The change in interest rate exposure as of December 31, 2022 compared to prior year-end was primarily driven by additional downside rate protection added in the macro hedge program.
Net impacts shown in the above table from GMWB riders result largely from differences between the liability valuation basis and the hedging basis. Liabilities are valued using fair value accounting principles, with risk margins incorporated in contractholder behavior assumptions and with discount rates increased to reflect a current market estimate of our risk of nonperformance specific to these liabilities. Our hedging is based on our determination of economic risk, which excludes certain items in the liability valuation including the nonperformance spread risk.
Actual results could differ materially from those illustrated above as they are based on a number of estimates and assumptions. These include assuming that implied market volatility does not change when equity prices fall by 10% and that the 100 basis point increase in interest rates is a parallel shift of the yield curve. Furthermore, we have not tried to anticipate changes in client preferences for different types of assets or other changes in client behavior, nor have we tried to anticipate all strategic actions management might take to increase revenues or reduce expenses in these scenarios.
The selection of a 100 basis point interest rate increase as well as a 10% equity price decline should not be construed as a prediction of future market events. Impacts of larger or smaller changes in interest rates or equity prices may not be proportional to those shown for a 100 basis point increase in interest rates or a 10% decline in equity prices.
Asset-Based Management and Distribution Fees
We earn asset-based management fees and distribution fees on our assets under management. As of December 31, 2022, the value of our assets under management was $1.0 trillion. These sources of revenue are subject to both interest rate and equity price risk since the value of these assets and the fees they earn fluctuate inversely with interest rates and directly with equity prices. We currently only hedge certain equity price risk for this exposure, primarily using futures and swaps. We currently do not hedge any of the interest rate risk for this exposure.
DAC and DSIC Amortization
For annuity and UL/variable universal life (“VUL”) products, DAC and DSIC are amortized on the basis of estimated gross profits (“EGPs”). EGPs are a proxy for pretax income prior to the recognition of DAC and DSIC amortization expense. When events occur that reduce or increase current period EGPs, DAC and DSIC amortization expense is typically reduced or increased as well, somewhat mitigating the impact of the event on pretax income.
Variable Annuity Riders
The total contract value of all variable annuities as of December 31, 2022 was $74.4 billion. These contract values include GMWB and GMAB contracts which were $41.1 billion and $1.4 billion, respectively, as of December 31, 2022. As of December 31, 2022, reserves for GMWB were net liabilities of $1.9 billion and reserves for GMAB were net assets of $35 million. The GMWB and GMAB reserves include the fair value of embedded derivatives, which fluctuates based on equity, interest rate and credit markets which can cause these embedded derivatives to be either an asset or a liability. As of December 31, 2022, the reserve for GMDB and GMIB was a net liability of $56 million.
Equity Price Risk
The variable annuity guaranteed benefits guarantee payouts to the annuity holder under certain specific conditions regardless of the performance of the investment assets. For this reason, when equity prices decline, the returns from the separate account assets coupled with guaranteed benefit fees from annuity holders may not be sufficient to fund expected payouts. In that case, reserves must be increased with a negative impact to earnings.
The core derivative instruments with which we hedge the equity price risk of our GMWB and GMAB provisions are longer dated put and call options; these core instruments are supplemented with equity futures and total return swaps. See Note 17 to our Consolidated Financial Statements for further information on our derivative instruments.
Interest Rate Risk
The GMAB and the non-life contingent benefits associated with the GMWB provisions create embedded derivatives which are carried at fair value separately from the underlying host variable annuity contract. The changes in fair value of the GMWB and GMAB liabilities are recorded through earnings with fair value calculated based on projected, discounted cash flows over the life of the contract, including projected, discounted benefits and fees. Increases in interest rates reduce the fair value of the GMWB and GMAB liabilities. The GMWB and GMAB interest rate exposure is hedged with a portfolio of longer dated put and call options, futures, interest rate swaps and swaptions. We have entered into interest rate swaps according to risk exposures along maturities, thus creating both fixed rate payor and variable rate payor terms. If interest rates were to increase, we would have to pay more to the swap counterparty, and the fair value of our equity puts would decrease, resulting in a negative impact to our pretax income.
Structured Variable Annuities
Structured variable annuities offer the contract-holder the ability to allocate premiums to either an account that earns fixed interest (fixed account) or an account that credits interest based on the performance of various equity indices (indexed account) subject to a cap, floor, or buffer. Our earnings are based upon the spread between investment income earned and the credits made to the fixed and indexed accounts of the structured variable annuities. As of December 31, 2022, we had $6.6 billion in liabilities related to structured variable annuities.
Equity Price Risk
The equity-linked return to investors creates equity price risk as the amount credited depends on changes in equity prices. The equity price risk for structured variable annuities is evaluated together with the variable annuity riders as part of a hedge program using the derivative instruments consistent with our hedging on variable annuity riders.
Interest Rate Risk
The fair value of the embedded derivative associated with structured variable annuities is based on a discounted cash flow approach. Changes in interest rates impact the discounting of the embedded derivative liability. The spread between the investment income earned and amounts credited to contract-holders is also affected by changes in interest rates. These interest rate risks associated with structured variable annuities are not currently hedged.
Fixed Annuities, Fixed Insurance and Fixed Portion of Variable Annuities and Variable Insurance Contracts
Our earnings from fixed deferred annuities, fixed insurance, and the fixed portion of variable annuities and variable insurance contracts are based upon the spread between rates earned on assets held and the rates at which interest is credited to accounts. We primarily invest in fixed rate securities to fund the rate credited to clients. We guarantee an interest rate to the holders of these products. Investment assets and client liabilities generally differ as it relates to basis, repricing or maturity characteristics. Rates credited to clients’ accounts generally reset at shorter intervals than the yield on the underlying investments. Therefore, in an increasing interest rate environment, higher interest rates may be reflected in crediting rates to clients sooner than in rates earned on invested assets, which could result in a reduced spread between the two rates, reduced earned income and a negative impact on pretax income. While interest rates under the current environment have relieved some pressure from the liability guaranteed minimum interest rates (“GMIRs”), there are still some GMIRs above current levels. Hence, liability credited rates will move more slowly under a modest rise in interest rates while projected asset purchases would capture the full increase in interest rates. This dynamic would result in widening spreads under a modestly rising rate scenario given the current relationship between the current level of interest rates and the underlying GMIRs on the business. Of the $36.1 billion in Policyholder account balances, future policy benefits and claims as of December 31, 2022, $24.9 billion is related to liabilities created by these products. We do not hedge this exposure.
As a result of the current market environment, reinvestment yields are becoming more aligned with the current portfolio yield. We would expect the recent decline in our portfolio income yields to slow and begin to stabilize in future periods if the current environment continues. The carrying value and weighted average yield of non-structured fixed maturity securities and commercial mortgage loans that may generate proceeds to reinvest through 2024 due to prepayment, maturity or call activity at the option of the issuer, excluding securities with a make-whole provision, were $4.0 billion and 4.1%, respectively, as of December 31, 2022. In addition, residential mortgage backed securities, which can be subject to prepayment risk under a low interest rate environment, totaled $15.7 billion and had a weighted average yield of 3.5% as of December 31, 2022. While these amounts represent investments that could be subject to reinvestment risk, it is also possible that these investments will be used to fund liabilities or may not be prepaid and will remain invested at their current yields. In addition to the interest rate environment, the mix of benefit payments versus product sales as well as the timing and volumes associated with such mix may impact our investment yield. Furthermore, reinvestment activities and the associated investment yield may also be impacted by corporate strategies implemented at management’s discretion. The average yield for investment purchases during the year ended December 31, 2022 was approximately 4.3%.
The reinvestment of proceeds from maturities, calls and prepayments at rates near the current portfolio yield will have a limited impact to future operating results. In this volatile rate environment, we assess reinvestment risk in our investment portfolio and monitor this risk in accordance with our asset/liability management framework. In addition, we may update the crediting rates on our fixed products when warranted, subject to guaranteed minimums.
The following table presents the account values of fixed deferred annuities, fixed insurance, and the fixed portion of variable annuities and variable insurance contracts by range of GMIRs and the range of the difference between rates credited to policyholders and contractholders as of December 31, 2022 and the respective guaranteed minimums, as well as the percentage of account values subject to rate reset in the time period indicated. Rates are reset at our discretion, subject to guaranteed minimums.
| Account Values with Crediting Rates | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At Guaranteed Minimum | 1-49 bps above Guaranteed Minimum | 50-99 bps above Guaranteed Minimum | 100-150 bps above Guaranteed Minimum | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in billions, except percentages) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Range of Guaranteed Minimum Crediting Rates | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 1% - 1.99% | $ | 0.6 | $ | 0.5 | $ | 0.2 | $ | 0.1 | $ | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2% - 2.99% | 0.5 | — | — | — | 0.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3% - 3.99% | 7.0 | — | — | — | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4% - 5.00% | 5.5 | — | — | — | 5.5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 13.6 | $ | 0.5 | $ | 0.2 | $ | 0.1 | $ | 14.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Percentage of Account Values That Reset In: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Next 12 months (1) | 100 | % | 95 | % | 93 | % | 100 | % | 100 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
| > 12 months to 24 months (2) | — | 4 | 6 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| > 24 months (2) | — | 1 | 1 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 100 | % | 100 | % | 100 | % | 100 | % | 100 | % |
(1) Includes contracts with annual discretionary crediting rate resets and contracts with 12 or less months until the crediting rate becomes discretionary on an annual basis.
(2) Includes contracts with more than 12 months remaining until the crediting rate becomes an annual discretionary rate.
Equity Indexed Annuities
Our equity indexed annuity (“EIA”) product is a single premium annuity issued with an initial term of seven years. The annuity guarantees the contractholder a minimum return of 3% on 90% of the initial premium or end of prior term accumulation value upon renewal plus a return that is linked to the performance of the S&P 500® Index. The equity-linked return is based on a participation rate initially set at between 50% and 90% of the S&P 500® Index, which is guaranteed for the initial seven-year term when the contract is held to full term. As of December 31, 2022, we had $16 million in liabilities related to EIAs. We discontinued new sales of EIAs in 2007.
Equity Price Risk
The equity-linked return to investors creates equity price risk as the amount credited depends on changes in equity prices. To hedge this exposure, we purchase futures, which generate returns to replicate what we must credit to client accounts.
Interest Rate Risk
Most of the proceeds received from EIAs are invested in fixed income securities with the return on those investments intended to fund the 3% guarantee. We earn income from the difference between the return earned on invested assets and the 3% guarantee rate credited to customer accounts. The spread between return earned and amount credited is affected by changes in interest rates. This risk is not currently hedged and was immaterial as of December 31, 2022.
Banking Deposits and Brokerage Client Cash Balances
We pay interest on banking deposits and certain brokerage client cash balances and have the ability to reset these rates from time to time based on prevailing economic and business conditions. We earn revenue to fund the interest paid from interest-earning assets or fees from off-balance sheet deposits at Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation insured institutions, which are indexed to short-term interest rates. In general, the change in interest paid lags the change in revenues earned.
Certificate Products
Fixed Rate Certificates
We have interest rate risk from our investment certificates generally ranging in amounts from $1 thousand to $2 million with interest crediting rate terms ranging from 3 to 36 months. We guarantee an interest rate to the holders of these products. Payments collected from clients are primarily invested in fixed income securities to fund the client credited rate with the spread between the rate earned from investments and the rate credited to clients recorded as earned income. Client liabilities and investment assets generally differ as it relates to basis, repricing or maturity characteristics. Rates credited to clients generally reset at shorter intervals than the yield on underlying investments. This exposure is not currently hedged although we monitor our investment strategy and make modifications based on our changing liabilities and the expected interest rate environment. Of the $30.8 billion in customer deposits as of December 31, 2022, $9.1 billion related to reserves for our fixed rate certificate products.
Stock Market Certificates
Stock market certificates are purchased for amounts generally from $1 thousand to $2 million for terms of 52 weeks, 104 weeks or 156 weeks, which can be extended to a maximum of 15 years depending on the term. For each term the certificate holder can choose to participate 100% in any percentage increase in the S&P 500® Index up to a maximum return or choose partial participation in any increase in the S&P 500® Index plus a fixed rate of interest guaranteed in advance. If partial participation is selected, the total of equity-linked return and guaranteed rate of interest cannot exceed the maximum return. Liabilities for our stock market certificates are included in Customer deposits. As of December 31, 2022, we had $221 million in reserves related to stock market certificates. The equity-linked return to investors creates equity price risk exposure. We seek to minimize this exposure with purchased futures and call spreads that replicate what we must credit to client accounts. This risk continues to be fully hedged. Stock market certificates have some interest rate risk as changes in interest rates affect the fair value of the payout to be made to the certificate holder. This risk is not currently hedged and was immaterial as of December 31, 2022.
Indexed Universal Life
IUL insurance is similar to UL in many regards, although the rate of credited interest above the minimum guarantee for funds allocated to an indexed account is linked to the performance of the specified index for the indexed account (subject to stated account parameters, which include a cap and floor, or a spread and floor). We offer an S&P 500® Index account option and a blended multi-index account option comprised of the S&P 500® Index, the MSCI® EAFE Index and the MSCI EM Index. Both options offer two crediting durations, one-year and two-year. The policyholder may allocate all or a portion of the policy value to a fixed or any available indexed account. As of December 31, 2022, we had $2.5 billion in liabilities related to the indexed accounts of IUL, with the vast majority in the S&P 500® Index account option.
Equity Price Risk
The equity-linked return to investors creates equity price risk as the amount credited depends on changes in equity prices. Most of the proceeds received from IUL insurance are invested in fixed income securities. To hedge the equity exposure, a portion of the investment earnings received from the fixed income securities is used to purchase call spreads which generate returns to replicate what we must credit to client accounts.
Interest Rate Risk
As mentioned above, most of the proceeds received from IUL insurance are invested in fixed income securities with the return on those investments intended to fund the purchase of call spreads and options. There are two risks relating to interest rates. First, we have the risk that investment returns are such that we do not have enough investment income to purchase the needed call spreads. Second, in the event the policy is surrendered we pay out a book value surrender amount and there is a risk that we will incur a loss upon having to sell the fixed income securities backing the liability (if interest rates have risen). This risk is not currently hedged.
Foreign Currency Risk
We have foreign currency risk through our net investment in foreign subsidiaries and our operations in foreign countries. We are primarily exposed to changes in British Pounds related to our net investment in Threadneedle and BMO Global Asset Management (EMEA), which was approximately £1.4 billion as of December 31, 2022. We also have exposure related to operations in foreign countries to Euros, Indian Rupees and other currencies. We monitor the foreign exchange rates that we have exposure to and enter into foreign currency forward contracts to mitigate risk when economically prudent. As of December 31, 2022, the notional value of outstanding contracts and our remaining foreign currency risk related to operations in foreign countries were not material.
Interest Rate Risk on External Debt
The stated interest rate on the $2.8 billion of our senior unsecured notes is fixed. We did not enter into interest rate swap agreements to effectively convert the fixed interest rate on any of the senior unsecured notes to floating interest rates.
Credit Risk
We are exposed to credit risk within our investment portfolio, including our loan portfolio, and through our derivative and reinsurance activities. Credit risk relates to the uncertainty of an obligor’s continued ability to make timely payments in accordance with the contractual terms of the financial instrument or contract. We consider our total potential credit exposure to each counterparty and its affiliates to ensure compliance with pre-established credit guidelines at the time we enter into a transaction which would potentially increase our credit risk. These guidelines and oversight of credit risk are managed through a comprehensive enterprise risk management program that includes members of senior management.
We manage the risk of credit-related losses in the event of nonperformance by counterparties by applying disciplined fundamental credit analysis and underwriting standards, prudently limiting exposures to lower-quality, higher-yielding investments, and diversifying exposures by issuer, industry, region and underlying investment type. We remain exposed to occasional adverse cyclical economic downturns during which default rates may be significantly higher than the long-term historical average used in pricing.
We manage our credit risk related to over-the-counter derivatives by entering into transactions with creditworthy counterparties, maintaining collateral arrangements and through the use of master netting arrangements that provide for a single net payment to be made by one counterparty to another at each due date and upon termination. Generally, our current credit exposure on over-the-
counter derivative contracts is limited to a derivative counterparty’s net positive fair value of derivative contracts after taking into consideration the existence of netting arrangements and any collateral received. This exposure is monitored and managed to an acceptable threshold level.
The counterparty risk for centrally cleared over-the-counter derivatives is transferred to a central clearing party through contract novation. Because the central clearing party monitors open positions and adjusts collateral requirements daily, we have minimal credit exposure from such derivative instruments.
Exchange-traded derivatives are effected through regulated exchanges that require contract standardization and initial margin to transact through the exchange. Because exchange-traded futures are marked to market and generally cash settled on a daily basis, we have minimal exposure to credit-related losses in the event of nonperformance by counterparties to such derivative instruments. Other exchange-traded derivatives would be exposed to nonperformance by counterparties for amounts in excess of initial margin requirements only if the exchange is unable to fulfill the contract.
We manage our credit risk related to reinsurance treaties by evaluating the financial condition of reinsurance counterparties prior to entering into new reinsurance treaties. In addition, we regularly evaluate their financial strength during the terms of the treaties. As of December 31, 2022, our largest reinsurance credit risks are related to coinsurance treaties with Commonwealth and with life insurance subsidiaries of Genworth Financial, Inc. See Note 7 and Note 8 to our Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information on reinsurance.
Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
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