Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

Financial Instruments and Risk Management

The company employs established risk management policies and procedures which seek to reduce the company’s commercial risk exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices, interest rates, currency exchange rates and prices of the company’s common stock with regard to common share repurchases and the company’s deferred compensation stock plan. However, there can be no assurance that these policies and procedures will be successful. Although the instruments utilized involve varying degrees of credit, market and interest risk, the counterparties to the agreements are expected to perform fully under the terms of the agreements. The company monitors counterparty credit risk, including lenders, on a regular basis, but Ball cannot be certain that all risks will be discerned or that its risk management policies and procedures will always be effective. Additionally, in the event of default under the company’s master derivative agreements, the non-defaulting party has the option to set off any amounts owed with regard to open derivative positions.

We have estimated our market risk exposure using sensitivity analysis. Market risk exposure has been defined as the changes in fair value of derivative instruments, financial instruments and commodity positions. To test the sensitivity of our market risk exposure, we have estimated the changes in fair value of market risk sensitive instruments assuming a hypothetical 10 percent adverse change in market prices or rates. The results of the sensitivity analyses are summarized below.

Commodity Price Risk

Aluminum

We manage commodity price risk in connection with market price fluctuations of aluminum ingot through two different methods. First, we enter into container sales contracts that include aluminum ingot-based pricing terms that generally reflect the same price fluctuations included in commercial purchase contracts for aluminum sheet. The terms include fixed, floating or pass-through aluminum ingot component pricing. Second, we use derivative instruments such as option and forward contracts as economic and cash flow hedges of commodity price risk where there are material differences between sales and purchase contracted pricing and volume.

Considering the effects of derivative instruments, the company’s ability to pass through certain raw material costs through contractual provisions, the market’s ability to accept price increases and the company’s commodity price exposures under its contract terms, a hypothetical 10 percent adverse change in the company’s aluminum prices would result in an estimated $8 million after-tax reduction in net earnings over a one-year period. Additionally, the company has currency exposures on raw materials and the effect of a 10 percent adverse change is included in the total currency exposure discussed below. Actual results may vary based on actual changes in market prices and rates.

Interest Rate Risk

Our objective in managing exposure to interest rate changes is to minimize the impact of interest rate changes on earnings and cash flows and to minimize our overall borrowing costs. To achieve these objectives, we may use a variety of interest rate swaps, collars and options to manage our mix of floating and fixed-rate debt. Interest rate instruments held by the company at December 31, 2018, included pay-fixed interest rate swaps which effectively convert variable rate obligations to fixed-rate instruments.

Based on our interest rate exposure at December 31, 2018, assumed floating rate debt levels throughout the next 12 months and the effects of our existing derivative instruments, a 100-basis point increase in interest rates would result in an estimated $2 million after tax reduction in net earnings over a one-year period. Actual results may vary based on actual changes in market prices and rates and the timing of these changes.

Currency Exchange Rate Risk

Our objective in managing exposure to currency fluctuations is to limit the exposure of cash flows and earnings from changes associated with currency exchange rate changes through the use of various derivative contracts. In addition, at times Ball manages earnings translation volatility through the use of currency option strategies, and the change in the fair value of those options is recorded in the company’s net earnings. Our currency translation risk results from the currencies in which we transact business. The company faces currency exposures in our global operations as a result of various factors including intercompany currency denominated loans, selling our products in various currencies, purchasing raw materials and equipment in various currencies and tax exposures not denominated in the functional currency. Sales contracts are negotiated with customers to reflect cost changes and, where there is not an exchange pass-through arrangement, the company may use forward and option contracts to manage significant currency exposures.

Considering the company’s derivative financial instruments outstanding at December 31, 2018, and the various currency exposures, a hypothetical 10 percent reduction (U.S. dollar strengthening, mainly against the Russian ruble) in currency exchange rates compared to the U.S. dollar would result in an estimated $15 million after tax reduction in net earnings over a one-year period. This hypothetical adverse change in currency exchange rates would also reduce our forecasted average debt balance by $127 million and increase our forecasted cross currency swap value by $119 million. Actual changes in market prices or rates may differ from hypothetical changes.