Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk
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Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk
Risk Management Framework
Success in business requires risk taking. Only by taking risks are we able to seize opportunities that will enhance brand performance and improve earnings, but we must balance risk and reward appropriately. Our enterprise risk management process is intended to ensure that we take risks knowingly and thoughtfully, and that we balance risks and potential rewards appropriately. Our integrated enterprise risk management framework is designed to identify, evaluate, communicate, and appropriately mitigate risks across our operations. Within this framework:
| • | Our Board of Directors is responsible for overseeing our enterprise risk assessment and mitigation processes and procedures. The Board has reserved to itself the oversight of certain strategic enterprise risks, delegating responsibility for other risks to committees that report to the Board regularly on risks within their purview, and to management. |
| ◦ | The Audit Committee oversees policies and processes related to enterprise risk management, compliance with legal and regulatory requirements, and financial reporting and accounting control risks. |
| ◦ | The Compensation Committee periodically reviews our compensation policies and practices to assess whether they could lead to unnecessary risk taking. |
| • | Our Risk Committee is composed of members within various levels of management from an array of functional and geographical regions around the world. The Risk Committee leads the Company’s enterprise risk management program, which systematically identifies and evaluates the major risks we face, identifies “owners” for each risk, and ensures that risk mitigation plans are in place. The Risk Committee reports to the Board at least annually. |
| • | Our Risk Management function identifies and assesses potential operational hazards and safety and security risks, and facilitates ongoing communication about those risks with the Risk Committee and our executive leaders. |
| • | Our Internal Audit Department evaluates the ongoing effectiveness of our key internal controls through periodic audit and review procedures, in coordination with our external auditors. |
| • | The Chief Compliance Officer in our legal department helps ensure that all of our employees’ actions globally comply with all internal policies and applicable laws. |
Market Risks
We are exposed to market risks arising from adverse changes in foreign exchange rates, commodity prices affecting the cost of our raw materials and energy, and interest rates. We try to manage risk responsibly through a variety of strategies, including production initiatives and hedging strategies. Our foreign currency hedging contracts are subject to changes in exchange rates, our commodity forward purchase contracts are subject to changes in commodity prices, and some of our debt obligations are subject to changes in interest rates. We discuss these exposures below and also provide a sensitivity analysis as to the effect the changes could have on our results of operations. See Notes 6 and 8 to our Consolidated Financial Statements for details.
See Note 4 to our Consolidated Financial Statements for details on our grape and agave purchase obligations, which are exposed to commodity price risk, and “Critical Accounting Estimates” in “Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” for a discussion of our pension and other postretirement plans’ exposure to interest rate risks. Also see “Item 1A. Risk Factors” for details on how economic conditions affecting market risks also affect the demand for and pricing of our products and how we are affected by fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates.
Foreign Exchange. The more we expand our business outside the United States, the more our financial results will be exposed to exchange rate fluctuations. This exposure includes sales of our products in currencies other than the dollar and the cost of goods, services, and manpower we purchase in currencies other than the dollar. Because we sell more in local currencies than we purchase, we have a net exposure to changes in the dollar’s value. To buffer these exchange rate fluctuations, we regularly hedge a portion of our foreign currency exposure. But over the long term, our reported financial results will generally be negatively affected by a stronger dollar and positively affected by a weaker dollar.
We estimate that our foreign currency revenue for our largest exposures will exceed our foreign currency expenses by approximately $677 million in fiscal 2016. Foreign exchange rates also affect the carrying value of our foreign-currency-denominated assets and liabilities.
We routinely use foreign currency forward and option contracts to hedge a portion of our transactional foreign exchange risk and, in some circumstances, our net asset exposure. If these contracts remain effective, we will not recognize any unrealized gains or losses until we either recognize the underlying hedged transactions in earnings or convert the underlying hedged net asset exposures. At April 30, 2015, our total foreign currency hedges had a notional value of $1,212 million, with a maximum term outstanding of 36 months, and were recorded as a net asset at their fair value of of $41 million.
As of April 30, 2015, we hedged approximately 70% of our total transactional exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations in fiscal 2016 for our major currencies by entering into foreign currency forward contracts. Considering these hedges, we estimate that a 10% increase/decrease in the average value of the dollar in fiscal 2016 relative to fiscal 2015’s effective exchange rates for our significant currency exposures would decrease/increase our fiscal 2016 operating income by approximately $21 million.
Commodity Prices. Commodity prices are affected by weather, supply and demand, as well as geopolitical and economic variables. To reduce price volatility, we use deliverable contracts for corn (in which we take physical delivery of the corn underlying each contract), rather than futures contracts or options. We expect to mitigate the effect of some of the increases in our raw material costs through ongoing production and cost saving initiatives and targeted price increases.
Interest Rates. Our cash and cash equivalents ($370 million as of April 30, 2015) and variable-rate debt ($190 million as of April 30, 2015) are exposed to the risk of changes in interest rates. Based on the net balance of these items as of April 30, 2015, a 1% increase in interest rates would result in higher interest expense and higher interest income, leading to about $2 million less interest expense on a net basis.
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