Item 1A. Risk Factors
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Item 1A. Risk Factors
The following risk factors and other information included in this Annual Report should be carefully considered. The risks and uncertainties described below are not the only ones we face. Additional risks and uncertainties not presently known to us or that we currently believe are immaterial may also impair our business, results of operations or financial condition. If any of the following risks occur, our business, financial condition, operating results and cash flows could be materially adversely affected.
Declines or disruptions in the travel industry could adversely affect our business and financial performance.
Our financial results and prospects are significantly dependent upon the sale of travel services. Travel, including accommodation (including hotels, bed and breakfasts, hostels, apartments, vacation rentals and other properties), rental car and airline ticket reservations, is dependent on discretionary spending levels. As a result, sales of travel services tend to decline during general economic downturns and recessions when consumers engage in less discretionary spending, are concerned about unemployment or inflation, have reduced access to credit or experience other concerns or effects that reduce their ability or willingness to travel. For example, the recent worldwide recession led to a weakening in the fundamental demand for our travel reservation services and an increase in the number of consumers who canceled existing travel reservations with us. Also during the recession, the accommodation industry experienced a significant decrease in occupancy rates and average daily rates ("ADRs"). While lower occupancy rates have historically resulted in accommodation providers increasing their distribution of accommodation reservations through third-party intermediaries such as us, our remuneration for accommodation reservation transactions changes proportionately with price, and therefore, lower ADRs generally have a negative effect on our accommodation reservation business and a negative effect on our gross profit. Further, during periods of higher occupancy rates, accommodation providers may decrease their distribution of accommodation reservations through third-party intermediaries like us, in particular through our discount services such as priceline.com's Name Your Own Price® and Express Deals® services.
Many governments around the world, including the U.S. government and certain European governments, are operating at large financial deficits, resulting in high levels of sovereign debt in such countries. Greece, Ireland, Portugal and certain other European Union countries with high levels of sovereign debt at times have had difficulty refinancing their debt. Failure to reach political consensus regarding workable solutions to these issues has resulted in a high level of uncertainty regarding the future economic outlook. This uncertainty, as well as concern over governmental austerity measures including higher taxes and reduced government spending, could impair consumer spending and adversely affect travel demand. Greece, in particular, has recently faced and continues to face significant economic challenges, in large part due to its high levels of sovereign debt and difficulties re-financing that debt. This may increase the likelihood that Greece, and in turn other countries, could exit the European Union, which could lead to added economic uncertainty and further devaluation or eventual abandonment of the Euro common currency. At times, we have experienced volatility in transaction growth rates and cancellation rates and weaker trends in hotel ADRs across many regions of the world, particularly in those European countries that appear to be most affected by economic uncertainties. We believe that these business trends are likely impacted by weak economic conditions and sovereign debt concerns. Similarly, while China's economy experienced rapid growth over the past 20 years, growth of the Chinese economy slowed in 2015 and concerns about its future growth have had an adverse impact on financial markets, currency exchange rates and other economies. Disruptions in the economies of such countries could cause, contribute to or be indicative of deteriorating macro-economic conditions, which in turn could negatively affect travel to or from such countries or the travel industry in general and therefore have an adverse impact on our results of operations. In addition, although lower oil prices may lead to increased travel activity as consumers have more discretionary funds and airline fares decrease, recent declines in oil prices and stock market volatility may be indicative of broader macro-economic weakness, which in turn could negatively affect the travel industry and our business.
The uncertainty of macro-economic factors and their impact on consumer behavior, which may differ across regions, makes it more difficult to forecast industry and consumer trends and the timing and degree of their impact on our markets and business, which in turn could adversely affect our ability to effectively manage our business and adversely affect our results of operations.
In addition, other unforeseen events beyond our control, such as oil prices, terrorist attacks, unusual or extreme weather or natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, tsunamis, floods, droughts and volcanic eruptions, travel-related health concerns including pandemics and epidemics such as Ebola, Zika, Influenza H1N1, avian bird flu, SARS and MERS, political instability, regional hostilities, imposition of taxes or surcharges by regulatory authorities or travel-related accidents, can disrupt travel or otherwise result in declines in travel demand. Because these events or concerns are largely unpredictable, they can dramatically and suddenly affect travel behavior by consumers, and therefore demand for our services, which can adversely affect our business and results of operations. For example, our business and operations were negatively impacted by
the terror attacks in Paris in November 2015; Hurricane Sandy, which disrupted travel in the northeastern United States in late 2012; a major earthquake, tsunami and nuclear emergency in Japan in 2011; severe flooding in Thailand in October 2011; and disruptive civil unrest in Thailand in 2010 and 2014. In addition, MERS had an adverse impact on our business in northeast Asia in 2015. Also, in 2015 regional hostilities in the Middle East spurred an unprecedented flow of migrants from that region to Europe. As countries respond to the European migrant crisis, travel between countries in the European Union and to and from the region could be subject to increased restrictions or the closing of borders, which could negatively impact travel to, from or within the European Union and adversely affect our business and results of operations. Future terrorist attacks, natural disasters, health concerns or civil or political unrest could further disrupt our business and operations and adversely affect our results of operations.
Intense competition could reduce our market share and harm our financial performance.
We compete with both online and traditional travel and restaurant reservation and related services. The market for the services we offer is intensely competitive, and current and new competitors can launch new services at a relatively low cost. Some of our current and potential competitors, such as Google, Apple, Alibaba, Amazon and Facebook, have access to significantly greater and more diversified resources than we do, and they may be able to leverage other aspects of their businesses (e.g., search or mobile device businesses) to enable them to compete more effectively with us. For example, Google has entered various aspects of the online travel market through its acquisition in 2011 of ITA Software, Inc., a major flight information software company, its hotel search and reservation booking business ("Book on Google") and its license of hotel-booking software from Room 77.
We currently, or may potentially in the future, compete with a variety of companies, including:
| • | online travel reservation services such as Expedia, Hotels.com, Hotwire, Orbitz, Travelocity, Wotif, Cheaptickets, ebookers, HotelClub, RatesToGo, CarRentals.com and Venere, which are owned by Expedia; laterooms, which is owned by Tui Travel; Hotel Reservation Service (HRS) and hotel.de, which are owned by Hotel Reservation Service; and AutoEurope, Car Trawler, Ctrip (in which we hold a minority interest), eLong (in which Ctrip has acquired a significant minority ownership interest), MakeMyTrip, Webjet, Rakuten, Jalan, Hotel Urbano (in which we hold a minority interest), ViajaNet, Submarino Viagens, Despegar/Decolar, 17u.com, HotelTonight, Bookit.com, CheapOair, Mr. and Mrs. Smith and eDreams ODIGEO; |
| • | online accommodation search and/or reservation services, such as Airbnb and HomeAway (which is owned by Expedia), currently focused on vacation rental properties and other non-hotel accommodations, including individually owned properties; |
| • | large online companies, including search, social networking and marketplace companies such as Google, Facebook, Alibaba and Groupon; |
| • | traditional travel agencies, wholesalers and tour operators, many of which combine physical locations, telephone services and online services, such as Carlson Wagonlit, American Express, Thomas Cook and Tui Travel, as well as thousands of individual travel agencies around the world; |
| • | travel service providers such as accommodation providers, rental car companies and airlines, many of which have their own branded websites to which they drive business, including joint efforts by travel service providers such as Room Key, an online hotel reservation service owned by several major hotel companies; |
| • | online travel search and price comparison services (generally referred to as "meta-search" services), such as TripAdvisor, trivago (in which Expedia holds a majority ownership interest), Qunar (which is controlled by Ctrip), Skyscanner, HotelsCombined and Traveloka; |
| • | online restaurant reservation services, such as TripAdvisor's LaFourchette, Yelp's SeatMe, Zomato, Bookatable (which is owned by Michelin) and Quandoo (which is owned by Recruit); and |
| • | companies offering new rental car business models or car- or ride-sharing services that affect demand for rental cars, some of which have developed innovative technologies to improve efficiency of point-to-point transportation and extensively utilize mobile platforms, such as Uber, Lyft, Gett, Zipcar (which is owned by Avis), BlaBlaCar, Didi Kuaidi and Ola. |
TripAdvisor, a leading travel research and review website, Google, the world's largest search engine, and other large, established companies with substantial resources and expertise in developing online commerce and facilitating Internet traffic have launched search, meta-search and/or reservation booking services and may create additional inroads into online travel, both in the United States and internationally. Meta-search services leverage their search technology to aggregate travel search results for the consumer's specific itinerary across travel service provider (e.g., accommodations, rental car companies or airlines), online travel company ("OTC") and other travel websites and, in many instances, compete directly with us for customers. Meta-search services intend to appeal to consumers by showing broader travel search results than may be available through OTCs or other travel websites, which could lead to travel service providers or others gaining a larger share of search traffic. TripAdvisor has begun supporting its meta-search service with offline advertising, and trivago, a leading meta-search service in Europe, has been aggressively advertising in the United States since 2013. Through our KAYAK meta-search service, we compete directly with other meta-search services. KAYAK depends on access to information related to travel service pricing, schedules, availability and other related information from OTCs and travel service providers. To the extent OTCs or travel service providers do not provide such information to KAYAK, KAYAK's business and results of operations could be harmed.
Consumers may favor travel services offered by meta-search websites or search companies over OTCs, which could reduce traffic to our travel reservation websites, increase consumer awareness of our competitors' brands and websites and increase our advertising and other customer acquisition costs. To the extent any such consumer behavior leads to growth in our KAYAK meta-search business, such growth may not result in sufficient increases in profits from our KAYAK meta-search business to offset any related decrease in profits experienced by our travel service reservation brands. Further, meta-search services may evolve into more traditional OTCs by offering consumers the ability to make travel reservations directly through their websites. For example, TripAdvisor facilitates hotel reservations on its transaction websites Tingo and Jetsetter and, with respect to some accommodations, allows consumers to make a reservation while staying on TripAdvisor through its "Instant Booking" offering. Instant Booking now includes participation from six out of the top 10 global hotel brands, including Marriott International, Hyatt Hotels and Best Western International. We recently agreed to participate in "Instant Booking," and we do not yet know how this participation will affect our business. For example, while we expect to benefit from incremental business generated through "Instant Booking," participation could cannibalize business that would otherwise come to us through other ad offerings on TripAdvisor, directly (including after a consumer first visits TripAdvisor) or through other channels, some of which may be more profitable to us than reservations generated through "Instant Booking." Other meta-search providers may also offer direct booking services with travel service providers, which may lead to more consumers booking directly with a travel service provider rather than an OTC. For example, Google recently announced the discontinuation of its Hotel Finder meta-search service in favor of integrating hotels directly into search results and encouraging users to book hotel reservations directly through Google's "Book on Google" service, which it is now expanding from mobile phones to both desktops and tablets. To the extent consumers book travel services through a service such as Google's "Book on Google," a meta-search website or directly with a travel service provider after visiting a meta-search website or meta-search utility on a traditional search engine without using an OTC like us, or if meta-search services limit our participation within their search results or evolve into more traditional OTCs, we may need to increase our advertising or other customer acquisition costs to maintain or grow our reservation bookings and our business and results of operations could be adversely affected.
There has been a proliferation of new channels through which accommodation providers can offer reservations. For example, companies such as Airbnb and HomeAway (which is owned by Expedia) offer services providing vacation rental property owners, particularly individuals, an online place to list their accommodations where travelers can search and book such properties. Airbnb may also seek to compete directly with us by offering hotel and other accommodations through their online and mobile platforms. Further, meta-search services may lower the cost for new companies to enter the market by providing a distribution channel without the cost of promoting the new entrant's brand to drive consumers directly to its website. If any of these services are successful in attracting consumers who would otherwise use our services, our business and results of operations would be harmed.
Our OpenTable restaurant reservation business competes or may in the future compete with other restaurant reservation providers, such as LaFourchette (which is owned by TripAdvisor), Yelp's SeatMe service, Zomato, Bookatable (which is owned by Michelin), and Quandoo (which is owned by Recruit).
Companies offering new rental car business models and car- and ride-sharing services such as Uber, Lyft, Gett, BlaBlaCar and Zipcar (which is owned by Avis) provide alternative options for consumers considering renting a car. These companies extensively utilize mobile platforms and new technologies to drive demand for their services. If any of these services are successful in attracting consumers who would otherwise use our rental car reservation services, our business and results of operations could be harmed.
Travel service providers, including multi-national hotel chains, rental car companies and airlines with which we conduct business, compete with us in online channels to drive consumers to their own websites in lieu of third-party distributors such as us. Travel service providers may charge lower prices and, in some instances, offer advantages such as loyalty points or special discounts to members of closed user groups (such as loyalty program participants or consumers with registered accounts), any of which could make their offerings more attractive to consumers than our services. Discounting may increase as competition authorities seek to allow increased pricing flexibility among providers of travel service reservations. We may need to offer similar advantages to maintain or grow our reservation bookings, which could adversely impact our profitability. Further, consolidation among travel service providers, such as Marriott International's acquisition of Starwood Hotels & Resorts, could result in lower rates of commission paid to OTCs, increased discounting, and greater incentives for consumers to join closed user groups as such travel service providers expand their offerings. If we are not as effective as our competitors in offering discounted prices to closed user groups or if we are unable to entice members of our competitors' closed user groups to use our services, our ability to grow and compete could be harmed.
Competition in U.S. online travel remains intense and online travel companies are creating new promotions and consumer value features in an effort to gain competitive advantages. In particular, the competition to provide "opaque" accommodation reservation services to consumers, an area in which our priceline.com business has been a leader, has become more intense. For example, Expedia makes opaque accommodation room reservations available through its Hotwire brand and on its principal website under the name "Expedia Unpublished Rates" and has, we believe, supported this initiative with steeper discounts through lower margins. We believe these offerings, in particular "Expedia Unpublished Rates," have adversely impacted the market share and year-over-year growth rate for priceline.com's Name Your Own Price® opaque hotel reservation service, which has been experiencing a decline in room night reservations since 2011. Competitors could also launch opaque rental car services, which could negatively impact priceline.com's opaque Name Your Own Price® rental car reservation service. If Expedia or others are successful in growing their opaque reservation services, we may have less consumer demand for our opaque reservation services over time, and we would face more competition for access to the limited supply of discounted reservation rates. As a result of this increased competition, our share of the discount accommodation reservation market in the United States could further decrease, which could harm our business and results of operations. In addition, high hotel occupancy levels in the United States have had an adverse impact on our access to hotel rooms for our opaque hotel reservation services. Further, growth in discounted closed user group retail prices for hotel rooms lessens the price difference for members of the closed user group between a retail hotel reservation and an opaque hotel reservation, which we believe has led to fewer consumers using our opaque hotel reservation services.
During 2015, Expedia acquired Travelocity, Orbitz and HomeAway. To the extent these acquisitions enhance Expedia's ability to compete with us, in particular in the United States, which is Expedia's, Travelocity's, Orbitz's and HomeAway's largest market, our market share, business and results of operations could be adversely affected.
We are exposed to fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
We conduct a substantial majority of our business outside the United States but we report our results in U.S. Dollars. As a result, we face exposure to adverse movements in currency exchange rates as the financial results of our international businesses are translated from local currency (principally Euros and British Pounds Sterling) into U.S. Dollars. The U.S. Dollar significantly strengthened against the Euro during 2014 and 2015, moving from an exchange rate of 1.38 U.S. Dollars per Euro as of January 1, 2014 to 1.09 U.S. Dollars per Euro as of December 31, 2015. The U.S. Dollar also strengthened significantly during this time frame as compared to many other currencies. As a result, our foreign currency denominated net assets, gross bookings, gross profit, operating expenses and net income have been negatively impacted as expressed in U.S. Dollars. For example, gross profit from our international businesses grew year-over-year on a constant currency basis by approximately 28% for the year ended December 31, 2015, but, as a result of the impact of changes in currency exchange rates, grew by 11.6% as reported in U.S. Dollars.
Certain European Union countries with high levels of sovereign debt have had difficulty at times refinancing their debt. Concern around devaluation or abandonment of the Euro common currency, or that sovereign default risk may become more widespread, has led to significant volatility in the exchange rate between the Euro, the British Pound Sterling, the U.S. Dollar and other currencies. In March 2015, the European Central Bank, in an effort to stimulate the European economy, launched a quantitative easing program to purchase public debt.
Significant fluctuations in currency exchange rates can affect consumer travel behavior. For example, the strengthening of the U.S. Dollar relative to the Euro in 2015 resulted in it becoming more expensive for Europeans to travel to the United States, and dramatic depreciation of the Russian Ruble in 2014 and 2015 resulted in it becoming more expensive for Russians to travel to Europe and most other non-Ruble destinations. Consumers traveling from a country whose currency has weakened against other currencies may book lower ADR accommodations, choose to shorten or cancel their international travel
plans or choose to travel domestically rather than internationally, any of which could adversely affect our gross bookings, revenues and results of operations, in particular when expressed in U.S. Dollars.
Additionally, foreign exchange rate fluctuations on transactions denominated in currencies other than the functional currency result in gains and losses that are reflected in our financial results.
Volatility in foreign exchange rates and its impact on consumer behavior, which may differ across regions, makes it more difficult to forecast industry and consumer trends and the timing and degree of their impact on our markets and business, which in turn could adversely affect our ability to effectively manage our business and adversely affect our results of operations.
We face risks related to the growth rate and expansion of our international business.
We derive a substantial portion of our revenues, and have significant operations, outside the United States. Our international operations include the Netherlands-based accommodation reservation service Booking.com, the Asia-based accommodation reservation service agoda.com, the U.K.-based rental car reservation service rentalcars.com and, to a lesser extent, KAYAK's international meta-search services and OpenTable's international restaurant reservation business. Our international OTC operations have achieved significant year-over-year growth in their gross bookings (an operating and statistical metric referring to the total dollar value, generally inclusive of all taxes and fees, of all travel services booked by our customers, net of cancellations). This growth rate, which has contributed significantly to our growth in consolidated revenue, gross profit and earnings, has declined, a trend we expect to continue as the absolute level of our gross bookings increases. Other factors may also slow the growth rates of our international businesses, including, for example, worldwide economic conditions, any strengthening of the U.S. Dollar versus the Euro and other currencies, declines in ADRs, increases in cancellations, adverse changes in travel market conditions and the competitiveness of the market. A decline in the growth rates of our international businesses could have a negative impact on our future consolidated revenue, gross profit and earnings growth rates and, as a consequence, our stock price.
Our strategy involves continued international expansion in regions throughout the world. Many of these regions have different economic conditions, customs, languages, currencies, consumer expectations, levels of consumer acceptance and use of the Internet for commerce, legislation, regulatory environments (including labor laws and customs), tax laws and levels of political stability, and we are subject to associated risks typical of international businesses. International markets may have strong local competitors with an established brand and travel service provider or restaurant relationships that may make expansion in that market difficult and costly and take more time than anticipated. In addition, compliance with legal, regulatory or tax requirements in multiple jurisdictions places demands on our time and resources, and we may nonetheless experience unforeseen and potentially adverse legal, regulatory or tax consequences. In some markets such as China, legal and other regulatory requirements may prohibit or limit participation by foreign businesses, such as by making foreign ownership or management of Internet or travel-related businesses illegal or difficult, or may make direct participation in those markets uneconomic, which could make our entry into and expansion in those markets difficult or impossible, require that we work with a local partner or result in higher operating costs. If we are unsuccessful in rapidly expanding in new and existing markets and effectively managing that expansion, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
Certain markets in which we operate that are in earlier stages of development have lower operating margins compared to more mature markets, which could have a negative impact on our overall margins as these markets increase in size over time. Also, we intend to continue to invest in adding accommodations available for reservation on our websites, including hotels, bed and breakfasts, hostels and vacation rentals. Vacation rentals generally consist of, among others, properties categorized as single-unit and multi-unit villas, apartments, "aparthotels" (which are apartments with a front desk and cleaning service) and chalets and are generally self-catered (i.e., include a kitchen), directly bookable properties. Many of the newer accommodations we add to our travel reservation services, especially in highly penetrated markets, may have fewer rooms, lower ADRs or higher credit risk and may appeal to a smaller subset of consumers (e.g., hostels and bed and breakfasts), and therefore may also negatively impact our margins. For example, because a vacation rental is typically either a single unit or a small collection of independent units, vacation rental properties represent more limited booking opportunities than non-vacation rental properties, which generally have more units to rent per property. Our non-hotel accommodations in general may be subject to increased seasonality due to local tourism seasons, weather or other factors. As we increase our non-hotel accommodation business, these different market characteristics could negatively impact our profit margins; and, to the extent these properties represent an increasing percentage of the properties added to our websites, our gross bookings growth rate and property growth rate will likely continue to diverge over time (since each such property has fewer booking opportunities). As a result of the foregoing, as the percentage of non-hotel accommodations increases, the number of reservations per property will likely continue to decrease.
We believe that the increase in the number of accommodation providers that participate on our websites, and the corresponding access to accommodation room nights, has been a key driver of the growth of our accommodation reservation business. The growth in our accommodation bookings typically makes us an attractive source of consumer demand for our accommodation providers. However, accommodation providers may wish to limit the amount of business that flows through a single distribution channel. As a result, we may experience constraints on the number of accommodation room nights available to us, which could negatively impact our growth rate and results of operations.
The number of our employees worldwide has grown from less than 700 in the first quarter of 2007 to approximately 15,500 as of December 31, 2015, which growth is mostly comprised of hires by our international operations. We may not be able to hire, train, retain, motivate and manage required personnel, which may limit our growth, damage our reputation, negatively affect our financial performance, and otherwise harm our business. In addition, expansion increases the complexity of our business and places additional strain on our management, operations, technical performance, financial resources and internal financial control and reporting functions. Our current and planned personnel, systems, procedures and controls may not be adequate to support and effectively manage this growth and our future operations, especially as we employ personnel in multiple geographic locations around the world.
We rely on online advertising channels to enhance our brand awareness and to generate a significant amount of traffic to our websites.
We believe that maintaining and expanding the Booking.com, priceline.com, KAYAK, agoda.com, rentalcars.com and OpenTable brands, along with our other owned brands, are important aspects of our efforts to attract and retain customers. Effective online advertising has been an important factor in our growth, and we believe it will continue to be important to our future success. As our competitors spend increasingly more on advertising, we are required to spend more in order to maintain our brand recognition and, in the case of online advertising, to maintain and grow traffic to our websites. In addition, we have invested considerable money and resources in the establishment and maintenance of our brands, and we will continue to invest resources in advertising, marketing and other brand building efforts to preserve and enhance consumer awareness of our brands. We may not be able to successfully maintain or enhance consumer awareness and acceptance of our brands, and, even if we are successful in our branding efforts, such efforts may not be cost-effective. If we are unable to maintain or enhance consumer awareness and acceptance of our brands in a cost-effective manner, our business, market share and results of operations would be materially adversely affected.
Our online advertising efficiency, expressed as online advertising expense as a percentage of gross profit, is impacted by a number of factors that are subject to variability and that are, in some cases, outside of our control, including ADRs, costs per click, cancellation rates, foreign exchange rates, our ability to convert paid traffic to booking customers and the extent to which consumers come directly to our websites or mobile apps for bookings. For example, competition for desired rankings in search results and/or a decline in ad clicks by consumers could increase our costs-per-click and reduce our online advertising efficiency. We use third-party websites, including online search engines (primarily Google), meta-search and travel research services, and affiliate marketing as primary means of generating traffic to our websites. Our online advertising expense has increased significantly in recent years, a trend we expect to continue. In addition, from 2011 to 2013 our online advertising grew faster than our gross profit due to (1) year-over-year declines in online advertising returns on investment and (2) brand mix within The Priceline Group as our international brands grew faster than our U.S. brands and spent a higher percentage of gross profit on online advertising. In 2014, these long-term trends continued, but were more than offset by the inclusion of KAYAK and OpenTable because they spend a lower percentage of gross profit on online advertising than our other brands. Also, our consolidated results exclude intercompany advertising by our brands on KAYAK. In 2015, online advertising efficiency declined compared to the prior year, mainly due to lower ROIs. Any reduction in our online advertising efficiency could have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations, whether through reduced gross profit or gross profit growth or through advertising expenses increasing faster than gross profit and thereby reducing margins and earnings growth.
We believe that a number of factors could cause consumers to increase their shopping behavior before making a travel purchase. Increased shopping behavior reduces our online advertising efficiency and effectiveness because traffic becomes less likely to result in a purchase on our website, and such traffic is more likely to be obtained through paid online advertising channels than through free direct channels. Further, consumers may favor travel services offered by search companies or meta-search sites over OTCs, which could reduce traffic to our travel reservation websites, increase consumer awareness of our competitors' brands and websites, increase our advertising and other customer acquisition costs and adversely affect our business, margins and results of operations. To the extent any such increased shopping behavior leads to growth in our KAYAK meta-search business, such growth may not result in sufficient increases in revenues from our KAYAK meta-search business to offset any related decrease in gross profit or increase in advertising and other customer acquisition costs experienced by our OTC brands.
Our business could be negatively affected by changes in Internet search engine algorithms and dynamics or traffic-generating arrangements.
We use Google to generate a significant portion of the traffic to our websites, and, to a lesser extent, we use other search engines and meta-search websites to generate traffic to our websites, principally through pay-per-click advertising campaigns. The pricing and operating dynamics on these search engines can experience rapid change commercially, technically and competitively. For example, Google frequently updates and changes the logic which determines the placement and display of results of a consumer's search, such that the placement of links to our websites can be negatively affected and our costs to improve or maintain our placement in search results can increase. If Google changes how it presents travel search results or the manner in which it conducts the auction for placement among search results, in either case in a manner that is competitively disadvantageous to us, whether to support its own travel-related services (such as "Book on Google") or otherwise, our ability to efficiently generate traffic to our websites could be harmed, which in turn would have an adverse effect on our business, market share and results of operations.
In addition, we purchase website traffic from a number of other sources, including some operated by our competitors, in the form of pay-per-click arrangements that can be terminated with little or no notice. If one or more of such arrangements is terminated, our business, market share and results of operations could be adversely affected. Lastly, we rely on various third-party distribution channels (i.e., marketing affiliates) to distribute accommodation, rental car and airline ticket reservations. Should one or more of such third parties cease distribution of reservations made through us, or suffer deterioration in its search engine ranking, due to changes in search engine algorithms or otherwise, our business, market share and results of operations could be negatively affected.
Consumer adoption and use of mobile devices creates new challenges and may enable device companies such as Apple to compete directly with us.
Widespread adoption of mobile devices, such as the iPhone, Android-enabled smart phones and tablets such as the iPad, coupled with the web browsing functionality and development of thousands of useful apps available on these devices, is driving substantial online traffic and commerce to mobile platforms. We have experienced a significant shift of business to mobile platforms and our advertising partners are also seeing a rapid shift of traffic to mobile platforms. Our major competitors and certain new market entrants are offering mobile apps for travel products and other functionality, including proprietary last-minute discounts for accommodation reservations. Advertising and distribution opportunities may be more limited on mobile devices given their smaller screen sizes. The gross profit earned on a mobile transaction may be less than a typical desktop transaction due to different consumer purchasing patterns. For example, accommodation reservations made on a mobile device typically are for shorter lengths of stay and are not made as far in advance. Further, given the device sizes and technical limitations of tablets and smartphones, mobile consumers may not be willing to download multiple apps from multiple companies providing a similar service and instead prefer to use one or a limited number of apps for their mobile travel and restaurant research and reservation activity. As a result, the consumer experience with mobile apps as well as brand recognition and loyalty are likely to become increasingly important. Our mobile offerings have received generally strong reviews and are driving a material and increasing share of our business. We believe that mobile bookings present an opportunity for growth and are necessary to maintain and grow our business as consumers increasingly turn to mobile devices instead of a personal computer. As a result, it is increasingly important for us to develop and maintain effective mobile apps and websites optimized for mobile devices to provide consumers with an appealing, easy-to-use mobile experience. If we are unable to continue to rapidly innovate and create new, user-friendly and differentiated mobile offerings and efficiently and effectively advertise and distribute on these platforms, or if our mobile offerings are not used by consumers, we could lose market share to existing competitors or new entrants and our business, future growth and results of operations could be adversely affected.
Apple, one of the most innovative and successful companies in the world and producer of, among other things, the iPhone and iPad, obtained a patent for "iTravel," a mobile app that would allow a traveler to check in for a travel reservation. In addition, Apple's iPhone operating system includes "Wallet" (formerly known as "Passbook"), a virtual wallet app that holds tickets, boarding passes, coupons and gift cards, and, along with iTravel, may be indicative of Apple's intent to enter the travel reservations business in some capacity. Apple has substantial market share in the smart phone category and controls integration of offerings, including travel services, into its mobile operating system. Apple also has more experience producing and developing mobile apps and has access to greater resources than we have. Apple may use or expand iTravel, Wallet, Siri (Apple's voice recognition "concierge" service), Apple Pay (Apple's mobile payment system) or another mobile app or functionality as a means of entering the travel reservations marketplace. Similarly, Google's Android operating system is the leading smart phone operating system in the world. As a result, Google could leverage its Android operating system to give its travel services a competitive advantage, either technically or with prominence on its Google Play app store or within its mobile
search results. To the extent Apple or Google use their mobile operating systems or app distribution channels to favor their own travel service offerings, our business and results of operations could be harmed.
Our processing, storage, use and disclosure of personal data exposes us to risks of internal or external security breaches and could give rise to liabilities.
The security of data when engaging in electronic commerce is essential to maintaining consumer and travel service provider confidence in our services. Any security breach whether instigated internally or externally on our systems or other Internet-based systems could significantly harm our reputation and therefore our business, brand, market share and results of operations. We currently require consumers who use certain of our services to guarantee their offers with their credit card, either online or, in some instances, through our toll-free telephone service. We require user names and passwords in order to access our information technology systems. We also use encryption and authentication technologies to secure the transmission and storage of data and prevent unauthorized access to our data or accounts. It is possible that computer circumvention capabilities, new discoveries or advances or other developments, including our own acts or omissions, could result in a compromise or breach of consumer data. For example, third parties may attempt to fraudulently induce employees or customers to disclose user names, passwords or other sensitive information ("phishing"), which may in turn be used to access our information technology systems or to defraud our customers. We have experienced targeted and organized phishing attacks and may experience more in the future. Our efforts to protect information from unauthorized access may be unsuccessful or may result in the rejection of legitimate attempts to book reservations through our services, any of which could result in lost business and materially adversely affect our business, reputation and results of operations.
Our existing security measures may not be successful in preventing security breaches. A party (whether internal, external, an affiliate or unrelated third party) that is able to circumvent our security systems could steal consumer information or transaction data or other proprietary information. In the last few years, several major companies, including Sony, Home Depot, JPMorgan, Target, Zappos, Apple, AOL, LinkedIn, Google and Yahoo! experienced high-profile security breaches that exposed their customers' and employees' personal information. We expend significant resources to protect against security breaches, and we may need to increase our security-related expenditures to maintain or increase our systems' security or to address problems caused and liabilities incurred by breaches. These issues are likely to become more difficult to manage as we expand the number of places where we operate and as the tools and techniques used in such attacks become more advanced. As recently experienced by Sony, security breaches could result in severe damage to our information technology infrastructure, including damage that could impair our ability to offer our services or the ability of consumers to make reservations or conduct searches through our services, as well as loss of customer, financial or other data that could materially and adversely affect our ability to conduct our business, satisfy our commercial obligations or meet our public reporting requirements in a timely fashion or at all. Security breaches could also result in negative publicity, damage our reputation, expose us to risk of loss or litigation and possible liability, subject us to regulatory penalties and sanctions, or cause consumers to lose confidence in our security and choose to use the services of our competitors, any of which would have a negative effect on the value of our brand, our market share and our results of operations. Our insurance policies carry low coverage limits, and would likely not be adequate to reimburse us for losses caused by security breaches.
We also face risks associated with security breaches affecting third parties conducting business over the Internet. Consumers generally are concerned with security and privacy on the Internet, and any publicized security problems could inhibit the growth of the Internet and negatively affect consumers' willingness to provide private information or effect commercial transactions on the Internet generally, including through our services. Some of our business is conducted with third-party marketing affiliates, which may generate travel reservations through our infrastructure or through other systems. Additionally, consumers using our services could be affected by security breaches at third parties such as travel service providers, payroll providers, health plan providers, payment processors or global distribution systems ("GDSs") upon which we rely. A security breach at any such third-party marketing affiliate, travel service provider, GDS or other third party on which we rely could be perceived by consumers as a security breach of our systems and in any event could result in negative publicity, damage our reputation, expose us to risk of loss or litigation and possible liability and subject us to regulatory penalties and sanctions. In addition, such third parties may not comply with applicable disclosure requirements, which could expose us to liability.
In our processing of travel transactions, we receive and store a large volume of personally identifiable data. This data is increasingly subject to legislation and regulations in numerous jurisdictions around the world, such as the European Union's Data Protection Directive and variations and implementations of that directive in the member states of the European Union. In addition, the European Union is actively considering a new General Data Protection Regulation designed to unify data protection within the European Union under a single law, which may result in significantly greater compliance burdens for companies with users and operations in the European Union. Under the draft General Data Protection Regulation fines of up to 20,000,000 Euros or up to 4% of the annual global turnover of the infringer, whichever is greater, could be imposed. This
government action is typically intended to protect the privacy of personal data that is collected, processed and transmitted in or from the governing jurisdiction. In many cases, these laws apply not only to third-party transactions, but also to transfers of information between us and our subsidiaries, including employee information. For several years, we participated in the U.S.-E.U. Safe Harbor Arrangement (the "Safe Harbor") to address the European Union's data transfer regulations that would otherwise restrict the transfer of certain data from the European Union to the United States. In October 2015, the European Court of Justice invalidated the Safe Harbor, and, as a result, we may need to pursue consent and/or other solutions with respect to certain data transfers from the European Union to the United States. Such consents and/or solutions could be time consuming, costly or complicated to obtain or implement, or we may not be successful in such efforts, any of which could adversely affect our operations and financial results. These laws and their interpretations continue to develop and may be inconsistent from jurisdiction to jurisdiction. Non-compliance with these laws could result in penalties or significant legal liability. We could be adversely affected if legislation or regulations are expanded to require changes in our business practices or if governing jurisdictions interpret or implement their legislation or regulations in ways that negatively affect our business, results of operations or financial condition.
We are also subject to payment card association rules and obligations under our contracts with payment card processors. Under these rules and obligations, if information is compromised, we could be liable to payment card issuers for associated expenses and penalties. In addition, if we fail to follow payment card industry security standards, even if no customer information is compromised, we could incur significant fines or experience a significant increase in payment card transaction costs.
System capacity constraints, system failures or "denial-of-service" or other attacks could harm our business.
We have experienced rapid growth in consumer traffic to our websites and through our mobile apps, the number of accommodations on our extranets and the geographic breadth of our operations. If our systems cannot be expanded to cope with increased demand or fail to perform, we could experience unanticipated disruptions in service, slower response times, decreased customer service and customer satisfaction and delays in the introduction of new services, any of which could impair our reputation, damage our brands and materially and adversely affect our results of operations. Further, as an online business, we are dependent on the Internet and maintaining connectivity between ourselves and consumers, sources of Internet traffic, such as Google, and our travel service providers. As consumers increasingly turn to mobile devices, we also become dependent on consumers' access to the Internet through mobile carriers and their systems. Disruptions in Internet access, whether generally, in a specific market or otherwise, especially if widespread or prolonged, could materially adversely affect our business and results of operations. While we do maintain redundant systems and hosting services, it is possible that we could experience an interruption in our business, and we do not carry business interruption insurance sufficient to compensate us for all losses that may occur.
Our computer hardware for operating our services is currently located at hosting facilities around the world. These systems and operations are vulnerable to damage or interruption from human error, floods, fires, power loss, telecommunication failures and similar events. They are also subject to break-ins, sabotage, intentional acts of vandalism, terrorism and similar misconduct. Despite any precautions we may take, the occurrence of any disruption of service due to any such misconduct, natural disaster or other unanticipated problems at such facilities, or the failure by such facilities to provide our required data communications capacity could result in lengthy interruptions or delays in our services. Any system failure that causes an interruption or delay in service could impair our reputation, damage our brands or result in consumers choosing to use a competitive service, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.
Our existing security measures may not be successful in preventing attacks on our systems, and any such attack could cause significant interruptions in our operations. For instance, from time to time, we have experienced "denial-of-service" type attacks on our systems that have made portions of our websites slow or unavailable for periods of time. There are numerous other potential forms of attack, such as "phishing" (where a third party attempts to infiltrate our systems or acquire information by posing as a legitimate inquiry or electronic communication), SQL injection (where a third party attempts to obtain information or otherwise insert malicious code into our software through data entry fields in our websites) and attempting to use our websites as a platform to launch a "denial-of-service" attack on another party, each of which could cause significant interruptions in our operations and potentially adversely affect our brand, operations and results of operations or involve us in legal or regulatory proceedings. We expend significant resources in an attempt to prepare for and mitigate the effects of any such attacks. Reductions in website availability and response time could cause loss of substantial business volumes during the occurrence of any such attack on our systems, and measures we may take to divert suspect traffic in the event of such an attack could result in the diversion of bona fide customers. These issues are likely to become more difficult to manage as we expand the number of places where we operate and as the tools and techniques used in such attacks become more advanced. Successful attacks could result in negative publicity, damage our reputation and prevent consumers from booking travel services, researching travel services or making restaurant reservations through us during the attack, any of which could cause
consumers to use the services of our competitors, which would have a negative effect on the value of our brands, our market share, business and results of operations.
We rely on certain third-party computer systems and third-party service providers, including GDSs and computerized central reservation systems of the accommodation, rental car and airline industries in connection with providing some of our services. Any interruption in these third-party services and systems or deterioration in their performance could prevent us from booking related accommodation, rental car and airline reservations and have a material adverse effect on our business, brands and results of operations. Our agreements with some third-party service providers are terminable upon short notice and often do not provide recourse for service interruptions. In the event our arrangement with any such third party is terminated, we may not be able to find an alternative source of systems support on a timely basis or on commercially reasonable terms and, as a result, it could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.
We depend upon various third parties to process credit cards for our merchant transactions around the world. In addition, we rely on third parties to provide credit card numbers which we use as a payment mechanism for merchant transactions. If any such third party were wholly or partially compromised, our cash flows could be disrupted or we may not be able to generate merchant transactions (and related revenues) until such a time as a replacement process could be put in place with a different vendor.
We do not have a completely formalized or comprehensive disaster recovery plan in every geographic region in which we conduct business. In the event of certain system failures, we may not be able to switch to back-up systems immediately and the time to full recovery could be prolonged. Like many online businesses, we have experienced system failures from time to time. In addition to placing increased burdens on our engineering staff, these outages create a significant amount of consumer questions and complaints that need to be addressed by our customer support personnel. Any unscheduled interruption in our service could result in an immediate loss of revenues that could be substantial, increase customer service costs, harm our reputation and result in some consumers switching to our competitors. If we experience frequent or persistent system failures, our reputation and brand could be permanently and significantly harmed. We have taken and continue to take steps to increase the reliability and redundancy of our systems. These steps are expensive, may reduce our margins and may not be successful in reducing the frequency or duration of unscheduled downtime.
We use both internally developed systems and third-party systems to operate our services, including transaction processing, order management and financial systems. If the number of consumers using our services increases substantially, or if critical third-party systems stop operating as designed, we will need to significantly expand and upgrade our technology, transaction processing systems, financial and accounting systems and other infrastructure. We may not be able to upgrade our systems and infrastructure to accommodate such conditions in a timely manner, and, depending on the third-party systems affected, our transactional, financial and accounting systems could be impacted for a meaningful amount of time before upgrade, expansion or repair.
We may have exposure to additional tax liabilities.
As an international business providing reservation and advertising services around the world, we are subject to income taxes and non-income based taxes in the United States and various international jurisdictions. Due to economic and political conditions, tax rates and tax regimes in various jurisdictions may be subject to significant change. Our future effective tax rates could be affected by changes in the mix of earnings in countries with differing statutory tax rates, changes in the valuation of deferred tax assets or changes in tax laws or their interpretation. If our effective tax rates were to increase, our cash flows, financial condition and results of operations would be adversely affected.
Although we believe that our tax filing positions are reasonable and comply with applicable law, the final determination of tax audits or tax disputes may be different from what is reflected in our historical income tax provisions and accruals. To date, we have been audited in several taxing jurisdictions with no significant impact on our financial condition, results of operations or cash flows. If future audits find that additional taxes are due, we may be subject to incremental tax liabilities, possibly including interest and penalties, which could have a material adverse effect on our cash flows, financial condition and results of operations.
For example, French tax authorities recently concluded an audit that started in 2013 of the tax years 2003 through 2012. The French authorities are asserting that Booking.com has a permanent establishment in France and are seeking to recover what they claim are unpaid income taxes and value-added taxes ("VAT"). In December 2015, the French tax authorities issued an assessment for approximately 356 million Euros, the majority of which represents penalties and interest. We believe that Booking.com has been, and continues to be, in compliance with French tax law, and we intend to contest the assessment. If we are unable to resolve the matter with the French authorities, we would expect to challenge the assessment in the French courts. In order to contest the assessment in court, we may be required to pay, upfront, the full amount or a significant part of
any such assessment, though any such payment would not constitute an admission by us that we owe the taxes. French authorities may decide to also audit subsequent tax years, which could result in additional assessments.
Similarly, Italian tax authorities have initiated a process to determine whether we should be subject to additional tax obligations in Italy. While we believe that we comply with Italian tax law, Italian tax authorities may determine that we owe additional taxes, and they may also assess penalties and interest. We believe that we have been, and continue to be, in compliance with Italian tax law. In general, governments in the United States and Europe are increasingly focused on ways to increase tax revenues, which has contributed to an increase in audit activity and harsher stances taken by tax authorities. Any such additional taxes or other assessments may be in excess of our current tax provisions or may require us to modify our business practices in order to reduce our exposure to additional taxes going forward, any of which could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
We will be subject to increased income taxes in the event that our cash balances held outside the United States are remitted to the United States. As of December 31, 2015, we held approximately $9.8 billion of cash, cash equivalents, short-term investments and long-term investments outside of the United States. We currently intend to use our cash held outside the United States to reinvest in our international operations. If our cash balances outside the United States continue to grow and our ability to reinvest those balances outside the United States diminishes, under U.S. GAAP we will be obligated to record additional U.S. income tax expense with respect to our unremitted international earnings. We would not make additional income tax payments unless we were to actually repatriate our international cash to the United States. If we were to repatriate our international cash to the United States, we would pay only U.S. federal alternative minimum tax and certain U.S. state income taxes in connection with such repatriation as long as we have net operating loss carryforwards available to offset our U.S. taxable income. Such use of our net operating loss carryforwards would result in us being subject to a cash income tax liability on the earnings of our U.S. businesses sooner than would otherwise have been the case.
Various legislative proposals that would reform U.S. corporate income tax laws have been proposed by President Obama's administration as well as members of the U.S. Congress, including proposals that would significantly impact how U.S. multinational corporations are taxed on international earnings. Such proposals include changes that would reduce U.S. tax deferral on certain international digital goods and services transactions, impose a minimum U.S. tax on non-U.S. earnings, impose a one-time 14% tax on previously untaxed non-U.S. earnings, limit U.S. deductions for interest expense related to un-repatriated international-source income, limit interest and royalty deductions in connection with certain related party transactions, impose restrictions on the use of hybrid arrangements, limit shifting of income through intangible property transfers, and put in place certain tax disincentives for offshoring jobs or business segments. We cannot determine whether some or all of these or other proposals will be enacted into law or what, if any, changes may be made to such proposals prior to being enacted into law. If U.S. tax laws change in a manner that increases our tax obligations, our financial position and results of operations could be adversely impacted.
Additionally, in October 2015 the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development ("OECD") issued "final reports" in connection with its "base erosion and profit shifting" project. The OECD, with the support of the G20, initiated this project in 2013 in response to concerns that international tax standards have not kept pace with changes in global business practices and that changes are needed to international tax laws to address situations where multinational businesses may pay little or no tax in certain jurisdictions by shifting profits away from jurisdictions where the activities creating those profits may take place. The final reports were endorsed by the G20 leaders in November 2015. The final reports propose 15 actions the OECD determined are needed to address base erosion and profit shifting, including: (a) enhancing transparency through the sharing of tax information between countries; (b) prescribing standardized country-by-country reporting and other documentation requirements aimed at identifying where profits, tax and economic activities occur; (c) preventing harmful tax practices including the use of preferential tax regimes; (d) modernizing the OECD's transfer pricing rules related to intangibles; (e) changing the definition of permanent establishment to prevent artificial avoidance of tax nexus; and (f) limiting tax base erosion through interest deductions and other financial payments. The measures also contemplate the development of a multilateral instrument to incorporate and facilitate changes to tax treaties. On January 28, 2016, the European Commission unveiled a new package of proposals aimed at providing a framework for fairer taxation and to provide a coordinated European Union response to combating corporate tax avoidance. Key features of the proposals include: legally-binding measures to block the most common methods used by companies to avoid paying taxes; a recommendation to member states on how to prevent tax treaty abuse; a proposal for member states to share tax-related information on multinational businesses operating in the European Union; and actions to promote good tax governance internationally. We expect many countries to change their tax laws in response to this project, and several countries have already changed or proposed changes to their tax laws in response to the final reports. Any changes to international tax laws, including new definitions of permanent establishment or changes affecting the benefits of preferential tax regimes such as the Dutch "Innovation Box Tax" (discussed below), could impact the tax treatment of our foreign earnings and adversely impact our effective tax rate. Further, changes to tax laws and additional reporting requirements could increase the complexity, burden and cost of compliance. Due to the large and
expanding scale of our international business activities, any changes in U.S. or international taxation of our activities may increase our worldwide effective tax rate, increase the complexity and costs associated with tax compliance (especially if changes are implemented or interpreted inconsistently across tax jurisdictions) and adversely affect our financial position and results of operations.
We are also subject to non-income based taxes, such as value-added, payroll, sales, use, net worth, property and goods and services taxes, in the United States and various international jurisdictions, as well as the potential for travel transaction taxes in the United States as discussed below and in Note 15 to our Consolidated Financial Statements. For example, in July 2012 and December 2013, the Dutch Government enacted certain amendments to Dutch tax law including one-time levies on an employer applied to employee earnings, equal to 16% of an employee's earnings in excess of 150,000 Euros. These irrevocable levies resulted in additional payroll taxes of approximately $12 million (approximately $9 million after tax) in the fourth quarter of 2013 and approximately $14 million (approximately $10 million after tax) principally recorded in the third quarter of 2012. From time to time, we are under audit by tax authorities with respect to these non-income based taxes and may have exposure to additional non-income based tax liabilities.
We may not be able to maintain our "Innovation Box Tax" benefit.
The Netherlands corporate income tax law provides that income generated from qualifying innovative activities is taxed at the rate of 5% ("Innovation Box Tax") rather than the Dutch statutory rate of 25%. A portion of Booking.com's earnings currently qualifies for Innovation Box Tax treatment. In the year ended December 31, 2015, the Innovation Box Tax benefit reduced our consolidated income tax expense by approximately $260 million.
In order to be eligible for Innovation Box Tax treatment, Booking.com must, among other things, apply for and obtain a research and development ("R&D") certificate from a Dutch governmental agency every six months confirming that the activities that Booking.com intends to be engaged in over the subsequent six month period are "innovative." The R&D certificate is current but should Booking.com fail to secure such a certificate in any future period - for example, because the governmental agency does not view Booking.com's new or anticipated activities as innovative - or should this agency determine that the activities contemplated to be performed in a prior period were not performed as contemplated or did not comply with the agency's requirements, Booking.com may lose its certificate and, as a result, the Innovation Box Tax benefit may be reduced or eliminated. Booking.com intends to apply for continued Innovation Box Tax treatment for future periods. However, Booking.com's application may not be accepted, or, if accepted, the amount of qualifying earnings may be reduced.
In addition, tax laws may change resulting in a reduction or elimination of the tax benefit. As discussed above, the OECD's action plan involves, in part, evaluation of tax regimes such as the Innovation Box Tax. The European Union Council of Economics and Finance Ministers ("ECOFIN") has endorsed changes to limit member states' existing innovation and patent box tax regimes providing benefits related to profits derived from intangible assets such as intellectual property. The OECD's October 2015 final reports recommend that intellectual property qualifying for such tax regimes generally be limited to patents and other intellectual property assets that are functionally equivalent to patents (such as copyrighted software) if those other assets are both legally protected and subject to similar approval and registration processes as apply to patents. We expect the European Union to endorse the OECD's approach, which would require the new approach to be fully implemented in member states no later than July 2021. The Netherlands has already announced its intention to propose related legislative changes to the Innovation Box Tax regime by September 2016 to be effective January 1, 2017, though we expect such legislative changes will include transition rules. To the extent Booking.com's intellectual property developed by its innovative activities do not meet the requirements under any new legislation, Booking.com would eventually lose all or a portion of the benefit of the Innovation Box Tax.
While we expect Booking.com to continue to qualify for Innovation Box Tax treatment with respect to a portion of its earnings for the foreseeable future, the loss of the Innovation Box Tax benefit (or any material portion thereof), whether due to a change in tax law or a determination by the Dutch government that Booking.com's activities are not "innovative" or for any other reason, would substantially increase our effective tax rate and adversely impact our results of operations.
Our financial results will likely be materially impacted by payment of income taxes in the future.
Until our U.S. net operating loss carryforwards are utilized or expire, we do not expect to make tax payments on most of our U.S. income, except for U.S. federal alternative minimum tax and state income taxes. However, we expect to pay international taxes on our international income other than in countries where we have operating loss carryforwards. We expect that our international business will continue to generate most of our revenues and profits and will continue to grow pretax income at a higher rate than our U.S. business and, therefore, we expect that our tax payments will continue to increase. Any increase in our effective tax rate would have an adverse effect on our results of operations.
Adverse application of U.S. state and local tax laws could have an adverse effect on our business and results of operations.
A number of jurisdictions in the United States have initiated lawsuits against online travel companies, including us, related to, among other things, the payment of travel transaction taxes (e.g., hotel occupancy taxes, excise taxes, sales taxes, etc.). In addition, a number of U.S. states, counties and municipalities have initiated audit proceedings, issued proposed tax assessments or started inquiries relating to the payment of travel transaction taxes. Additional state and local jurisdictions may assert that we are subject to, among other things, travel transaction taxes and could seek to collect such taxes, either retroactively or prospectively, or both.
In connection with some travel transaction tax audits and assessments, we may be required to pay any assessed taxes, which amounts may be substantial, prior to being allowed to contest the assessments and the applicability of the laws in judicial proceedings. This requirement is commonly referred to as "pay to play" or "pay first." Payment of these amounts, if any, is not an admission that we believe that we are subject to such taxes and, even if we make such payments, we intend to continue to assert our position that we should not be subject to such taxes.
Litigation is subject to uncertainty and there could be adverse developments in these pending or future cases and proceedings. Adverse tax decisions could have a material adverse effect on our business, margins and results of operations. An unfavorable outcome or settlement of pending litigation may encourage the commencement of additional litigation, audit proceedings or other regulatory inquiries. In addition, an unfavorable outcome or settlement of these actions or proceedings could result in substantial liabilities for past and/or future bookings, including, among other things, interest, penalties, punitive damages and/or attorneys' fees and costs.
In many of the judicial and other proceedings initiated to date, the taxing jurisdictions seek not only historical taxes that are claimed to be owed on our gross profit, but also, among other things, interest, penalties, punitive damages and/or attorneys' fees and costs. Therefore, any liability associated with travel transaction tax matters is not constrained to our liability for tax owed, but may also include, among other things, penalties, interest and attorneys' fees. To date, the majority of the taxing jurisdictions in which we facilitate travel reservations have not asserted that taxes are due and payable on our travel services. With respect to taxing jurisdictions that have not initiated proceedings to date, it is possible that they will do so in the future or that they will seek to amend their tax statutes and seek to collect taxes from us only on a prospective basis.
We are dependent on providers of accommodations, rental cars and airline tickets and on restaurants.
We rely on providers of accommodations, rental cars and airline tickets and on restaurants to make their services available to consumers through us. Our arrangements with travel service providers generally do not require them to make available any specific quantity of accommodation reservations, rental cars or airline tickets, or to make accommodation reservations, rental cars or airline tickets available in any geographic area, for any particular route or at any particular price. Similarly, our arrangements with restaurants generally do not require them to provide all of their available tables and reservations to customers through us. During the course of our business, we are in continuous dialogue with our major travel service providers about the nature and extent of their participation in our services. A significant reduction on the part of any of our major travel service providers or providers that are particularly popular with consumers in their participation in our services for a sustained period of time or their complete withdrawal could have a material adverse effect on our business, market share and results of operations. To the extent any of those major or popular travel service providers ceased to participate in our services in favor of one of our competitors' systems or decided to require consumers to purchase services directly from them, our business, market share and results of operations could be harmed. Further, as consolidation among travel service providers increases, the potential adverse effect of a decision by any particular significant travel service provider (such as a large hotel chain, airline or rental car company) to withdraw from or reduce its participation in our services also increases. To the extent restaurants limit the availability of reservations through OpenTable, consumers may not continue to use our services and/or our revenues could be adversely affected, especially if reservations during highly desirable times on high volume days are not made available through us.
Further, KAYAK, a meta-search service, depends on access to information related to travel service pricing, schedules, availability and other related information from OTCs and travel service providers to attract consumers. To obtain this information, KAYAK maintains relationships with travel service providers and OTCs. Many of KAYAK's agreements with travel service providers and OTCs are short-term agreements that may be terminated on 30 days' notice. To the extent OTCs or travel service providers no longer provide such information to KAYAK, KAYAK's ability to provide comprehensive travel service information to consumers could be diminished and its brand, business and results of operations could be harmed. To the extent consumers do not view KAYAK as a reliable source of comprehensive travel service information, fewer consumers would likely visit its websites, which would also likely have a negative impact on KAYAK's advertising revenue and results of operations. In addition, if travel service providers or OTCs choose not to advertise with KAYAK or choose to reduce or
eliminate the fees paid to KAYAK for referrals from query results, KAYAK's business and results of operations could be adversely affected.
We rely on the performance of highly skilled personnel; and, if we are unable to retain or motivate key personnel or hire, retain and motivate qualified personnel, our business would be harmed.
Our performance is largely dependent on the talents and efforts of highly skilled individuals. Our future success depends on our continuing ability to identify, hire, develop, motivate and retain highly skilled personnel for all areas of our organization. In particular, the contributions of certain key senior management in the United States, Europe and Asia are critical to the overall management of our business. We may not be able to retain the services of any members of our senior management or other key employees, the loss of whom could harm our business and competitive position.
In addition, competition for well-qualified employees in all aspects of our business, including software engineers, mobile communication talent and other technology professionals, is intense both in the United States and abroad. Our international success in particular has led to increased efforts by our competitors and others to hire our international employees. Our continued ability to compete effectively depends on our ability to attract new employees and to retain and motivate existing employees. If we do not succeed in attracting well-qualified employees or retaining and motivating existing employees, our business, competitive position and results of operations would be adversely affected. We do not maintain any key person life insurance policies.
As the size of our business grows, we may become increasingly subject to the scrutiny of anti-trust and competition regulators.
Certain business practices common to the online travel industry have become the subject of investigations by various national competition authorities ("NCAs"), particularly in Europe. Investigations related to Booking.com's contractual parity arrangements with accommodation providers, sometimes also referred to as "most favored nation" or "MFN" provisions, were initiated by NCAs in France, Germany, Italy, Austria, Sweden, Ireland and Switzerland, and a number of other NCAs are also looking, or have looked, at these issues. The investigations primarily relate to whether Booking.com's price parity provisions are anti-competitive because they require accommodation providers to provide Booking.com with room rates that are at least as low as those offered to other OTCs or through the accommodation provider's website.
On April 21, 2015, the French, Italian and Swedish NCAs, working in close cooperation with the European Commission, announced that they had accepted "commitments" offered by Booking.com to resolve and close the investigations in France, Italy and Sweden. Under the commitments, Booking.com replaced its existing price parity agreements with accommodation providers with "narrow" price parity agreements. Under a "narrow" price parity agreement, subject to certain exceptions, an accommodation provider is still required to offer the same or better rates on Booking.com as it offers to a consumer directly online, but it is no longer required to offer the same or better rates on Booking.com as it offers to other OTCs. The commitments also allow an accommodation provider to, among other things, offer different terms and conditions (e.g., free WiFi) and availability to consumers that book with on-line travel companies that offer lower rates of commission or other benefits, offer lower rates to consumers that book through off-line channels and continue to discount through, among other things, accommodation loyalty programs, as long as those rates are not published or marketed online. The commitments apply to accommodations in France, Italy and Sweden and were effective on July 1, 2015. The foregoing description is a summary only and is qualified in its entirety by reference to the commitments published by the NCAs on April 21, 2015.
We are in ongoing discussions with various NCAs in other countries regarding their concerns. On July 1, 2015, Booking.com voluntarily implemented the commitments given to the French, Italian and Swedish NCAs throughout the European Economic Area and Switzerland and is working with certain other European NCAs towards closing their investigations or inquiries. In October 2015 the Irish NCA closed its investigation on the basis of commitments by Booking.com identical to those given to the French, Italian and Swedish NCAs. In November 2015 the Swiss NCA closed its investigation, prohibiting any reintroduction of Booking.com's old "wide" parity agreements but permitting Booking.com to retain its existing "narrow" parity agreements with accommodations in Switzerland. A number of additional NCAs in the European Economic Area have now closed their investigations following Booking.com's implementation of the commitments in their jurisdictions. However, we are currently unable to predict the impact the implementation of these commitments throughout the European Economic Area and Switzerland will have on Booking.com's business or on the on-going investigations in other European countries, or on industry practice more generally. On December 23, 2015, the German NCA issued a final decision prohibiting Booking.com's "narrow" price parity agreements with accommodations in Germany. The German NCA did not issue a fine, but has reserved its position regarding an order for disgorgement of profits. Booking.com announced that it intends to appeal the German NCA's decision. An Italian hotel association has appealed the Italian NCA's decision to accept the commitments by Booking.com. We are unable to predict how these appeals and the remaining
investigations in other countries will ultimately be resolved. Possible outcomes include requiring Booking.com to amend or remove its rate parity clause from its contracts with accommodation providers in those jurisdictions and/or the imposition of fines.
In August 2015, French legislation known as the "Macron Law" became effective. Among other things, the Macron Law makes price parity agreements illegal, including the "narrow" price parity agreements agreed to by the French NCA in April 2015. The law also requires that agreements between OTCs and hotels comply with a French agency contract form. Similar legislation prohibiting "narrow" price parity agreements has been proposed in Italy and currently is awaiting action by the Italian Senate. It is not yet clear how the Macron Law or the proposed Italian legislation may affect our business in the long term in France and Italy, respectively.
To the extent that regulatory authorities impose fines on us or require changes to our business practices or to those currently common to the industry, our business, competitive position and results of operations could be materially and adversely affected. Negative publicity regarding competition investigations could adversely affect our brands and therefore our market share and results of operations. Further, the Macron Law and any similar legislation enacted by other countries, and the decision by the German NCA to prohibit "narrow" price parity agreements, could have a material adverse effect on our business and our results of operations, in particular if consumers use our services to shop for accommodation reservations but make their reservations directly with an accommodation provider.
In addition, as our business grows, we may increasingly become the target of competition investigations or be limited by anti-trust or competition laws. For example, our size and market share may negatively affect our ability to obtain regulatory approval of proposed acquisitions, our ability to expand into complementary businesses or our latitude in dealing with travel service providers (such as by limiting our ability to provide discounts, rebates or incentives or to exercise contractual rights), any of which could adversely affect our business, results of operations or ability to grow and compete.
Regulatory and legal requirements and uncertainties could harm our business.
The services we offer are subject to legal regulations (including laws, ordinances, rules and other requirements and regulations) of national and local governments and regulatory authorities around the world, many of which are evolving and subject to the possibility of new or revised interpretations. Our ability to provide our services is and will continue to be affected by such regulations. For example, laws and proposed legislation relating to data localization in some countries could adversely affect our ability to conduct business in those countries. The implementation of unfavorable regulations or unfavorable interpretations of existing regulations by judicial or regulatory bodies could require us to incur significant compliance costs, cause the development of the affected markets to become impractical and otherwise have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.
Compliance with the laws and regulations of multiple jurisdictions increases our cost of doing business. These laws and regulations, which vary and sometimes conflict, include the U.S. Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the U.K. Bribery Act and local laws which also prohibit corrupt payments to governmental officials or third parties, data privacy requirements, labor relations laws, tax laws, anti-trust or competition laws, U.S., E.U. or U.N. sanctioned country or sanctioned persons mandates, and consumer protection laws. Violations of these laws and regulations could result in fines and/or criminal sanctions against us, our officers or our employees and/or prohibitions on the conduct of our business. Any such violations could result in prohibitions on our ability to offer our services in one or more countries, could delay or prevent potential acquisitions, and could also materially damage our reputation, our brands, our international expansion efforts, our ability to attract and retain employees, our business and our operating results. Even if we comply with these laws and regulations, doing business in certain jurisdictions could harm our reputation and brands, which could adversely affect our results of operations or stock price. In addition, these restrictions may provide a competitive advantage to our competitors unless they are also subject to comparable restrictions. Our success depends, in part, on our ability to anticipate these risks and manage these difficulties. We are also subject to a variety of other regulatory and legal risks and challenges in managing an organization operating in various countries, including those related to:
| • | regulatory changes or other government actions; |
| • | additional complexity to comply with regulations in multiple jurisdictions, as well as overlapping or inconsistent legal regimes, in particular with respect to tax, labor, consumer protection, digital content, advertising, promotions, privacy and anti-trust laws; |
| • | our ability to repatriate funds held by our international subsidiaries to the United States at favorable tax rates; |
| • | difficulties in transferring funds from or converting currencies in certain countries; and |
| • | reduced protection for intellectual property rights in some countries. |
Our business has grown substantially over the last several years and continues to expand into new geographic locations. In addition, we have made efforts and expect to make further efforts to integrate access to travel services across our various brands. These changes add complexity to legal and tax compliance, and our increased size and operating history may increase the likelihood that we will be subject to audits by tax authorities in various jurisdictions.
We face increased risks as the level of our debt increases.
We have a substantial amount of outstanding indebtedness and we may incur substantial additional indebtedness in the future, including through public or private offerings of debt securities. Our outstanding indebtedness and any additional indebtedness we incur may have significant consequences, which could include:
| • | requiring the dedication of a portion of our cash flow from operations to service our indebtedness, thereby reducing the amount of cash flow available for other purposes, including capital expenditures, share repurchases and acquisitions; |
| • | increased vulnerability to downturns in our business, to competitive pressures and to adverse changes in general economic and industry conditions; |
| • | decreased, or loss of, the ability to obtain additional financing on terms acceptable to us for working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions, share repurchases or other general corporate purposes; and |
| • | decreased flexibility when planning for or reacting to changes in our business and industry. |
Our ability to make payments of principal of and interest on our indebtedness depends upon our future performance, which will be subject to general economic conditions, industry cycles and financial, business and other factors affecting our consolidated results of operations and financial condition, many of which are beyond our control. Further, we may not have access to equity or debt markets or other sources of financing, or such financing may not be available to us on commercially reasonable terms, to repay or refinance our debt as it comes due or, in the case of our convertible notes, upon conversion. If we are unable to generate sufficient cash flow from our U.S. operations in the future to service our debt, we may be required to, among other things, repatriate funds to the United States at substantial tax cost.
"Cookie" laws could negatively impact the way we do business.
A "cookie" is a text file that is stored on a user's web browser by a website. Cookies are common tools used by thousands of websites, including ours, to, among other things, store or gather information (e.g., remember log-on details so a user does not have to re-enter them when revisiting a website), market to consumers and enhance the user experience on a website. Cookies are valuable tools for websites like ours to improve the customer experience and increase conversion on their websites.
The European Union's ePrivacy Directive requires member countries to adopt regulations governing the use of "cookies" by websites servicing consumers in the European Union. For example, on June 5, 2012, an amendment to the Dutch Telecommunications Act became effective. The amended act requires websites, including Booking.com, to provide Dutch users with clear and comprehensive information about the storage and use of certain cookies and obtain prior consent from the user before placing certain cookies on a user's web browser. To the extent any such regulations require "opt-in" consent before certain cookies can be placed on a user's web browser, our ability, in particular Booking.com's ability, to serve certain customers in the manner we currently do might be adversely affected and our ability to continue to improve and optimize performance on our websites might be impaired, either of which could negatively affect a consumer's experience using our services. As a result, these regulations could have a material adverse effect on our business, market share and results of operations.
Our stock price is highly volatile.
The market price of our common stock is highly volatile and is likely to continue to be subject to wide fluctuations in response to factors such as the following, some of which are beyond our control:
| • | operating results that vary from the expectations of securities analysts and investors; |
| • | quarterly variations in our operating results; |
| • | changes in expectations as to our future financial performance, including financial estimates by securities analysts and investors; |
| • | worldwide economic conditions in general and in Europe in particular; |
| • | fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly between the U.S. Dollar and the Euro; |
| • | announcements of technological innovations or new services by us or our competitors; |
| • | changes in our capital structure; |
| • | changes in market valuations of other Internet or online service companies; |
| • | announcements by us or our competitors of price reductions, promotions, significant contracts, acquisitions, strategic partnerships, joint ventures or capital commitments; |
| • | loss of a major travel service provider participant, such as a hotel chain, rental car company or airline, from our services; |
| • | changes in the status of our intellectual property rights; |
| • | lack of success in the expansion of our business models geographically; |
| • | announcements by third parties of significant claims or initiation of litigation proceedings against us or adverse developments in pending proceedings; |
| • | occurrences of a significant security breach; |
| • | additions or departures of key personnel; and |
| • | trading volume fluctuations. |
Sales of a substantial number of shares of our common stock, including through the conversion of our convertible notes, could adversely affect the market price of our common stock by introducing a large number of sellers to the market. Given the volatility that exists for our shares, such sales could cause the market price of our common stock to decline significantly. In addition, fluctuations in our stock price and our price-to-earnings multiple may have made our stock attractive to momentum, hedge or day-trading investors who often shift funds into and out of stocks rapidly, exacerbating price fluctuations in either direction, particularly when viewed on a quarterly basis.
The trading prices of Internet company stocks in general, including ours, have experienced extreme price and volume fluctuations. To the extent that the public's perception of the prospects of Internet or e-commerce companies is negative, our stock price could decline, regardless of our results. Other broad market and industry factors may decrease the market price of our common stock, regardless of our operating performance. Market fluctuations, as well as general political and economic conditions, such as a recession, interest rate or currency rate fluctuations, or a natural disaster or terrorist attack affecting a significant market for our business, such as Europe or the United States, could cause our stock price to decline. Negative market conditions could adversely affect our ability to raise additional capital or the value of our stock for purposes of acquiring other companies or businesses.
We have, in the past, been a defendant in securities class action litigation. Securities class action litigation has often been brought against a company following periods of volatility in the market price of its securities. To the extent our stock price declines or is volatile, we may in the future be the target of additional litigation. This additional litigation could result in substantial costs and divert management's attention and resources, either of which could adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.
We may not be able to keep up with rapid technological changes.
The markets in which we compete are characterized by rapidly changing technology, evolving industry standards, consolidation, frequent new service announcements, introductions and enhancements and changing consumer demands. We may not be able to keep up with these rapid changes. In addition, these market characteristics are heightened by the progress of technology adoption in various markets, including the continuing adoption of the Internet and online commerce in certain geographies and the emergence and growth of the use of smart phones and tablets for mobile e-commerce transactions, including through the increasing use of mobile apps. As a result, our future success will depend on our ability to adapt to rapidly changing technologies, to adapt our services to evolving industry standards and to continually innovate and improve the performance, features and reliability of our services in response to competitive service offerings and the evolving demands of the marketplace. In particular, we believe that it will be increasingly important for us to effectively offer our services through mobile apps and mobile optimized websites on smart phones and tablets. Any failure by us to successfully develop and achieve customer adoption of our mobile apps and mobile optimized websites would likely have a material and adverse effect on our growth, market share, business and results of operations. Further, to the extent mobile devices enable users to block advertising content on their devices, our advertising revenue and our ability to market our brands and acquire new customers may be negatively affected. We believe that ease-of-use, comprehensive functionality and the look and feel of our mobile apps and mobile optimized websites increasingly will be competitively critical as consumers obtain more of their travel and restaurant services through mobile devices. As a result, we intend to continue to spend significant resources maintaining, developing and enhancing our websites and mobile platforms, including our mobile optimized websites and mobile apps, and other technologies.
In addition, the widespread adoption of new Internet, networking or telecommunications technologies or other technological changes could require us to incur substantial expenditures to modify or adapt our services or infrastructure to those new technologies, which could adversely affect our results of operations or financial condition. For example, KAYAK generates revenues, in part, by allowing consumers to compare search results that appear in additional "pop-under" windows. Changes in browser functionality, such as changes that either block or otherwise limit the use of "pop-under" windows, at times has had a negative impact on our revenues. Any failure to implement or adapt to new technologies in a timely manner or at all could adversely affect our ability to compete, increase our customer acquisition costs or otherwise adversely affect our business, and therefore adversely affect our brand, market share and results of operations.
We face risks related to our intellectual property.
We regard our intellectual property as critical to our success, and we rely on domain name, trademark, copyright and patent law, trade secret protection and confidentiality and/or license agreements with our employees, travel service providers, partners and others to protect our proprietary rights. We have filed various applications for protection of certain aspects of our intellectual property in the United States and other jurisdictions, and we currently hold a number of issued patents in multiple jurisdictions. Further, in the future we may acquire additional patents or patent portfolios, which could require significant cash expenditures. However, we may choose not to patent or otherwise register some of our intellectual property and instead rely on trade secret or other means of protecting our intellectual property. We have licensed in the past, and may license in the future, certain of our proprietary rights, such as trademarks or copyrighted material, to third parties, and these licensees may take actions that diminish the value of our proprietary rights or harm our reputation. In addition, effective intellectual property protection may not be available in every country in which our services are made available online. We may be required to expend significant time and resources to prevent infringement or to enforce our intellectual property rights.
While we believe that our intellectual property rights, including our issued patents and pending patent applications, help to protect our business, there can be no assurance that:
| • | a third party will not have or obtain one or more patents that can prevent us from practicing features of our business or that will require us to pay for a license to use those features; |
| • | our operations do not or will not infringe valid, enforceable patents of third parties; |
| • | we can successfully defend our patents against challenges by third parties; |
| • | pending patent applications will result in the issuance of patents; |
| • | competitors or potential competitors will not devise new methods of competing with us that are not covered by our patents or patent applications; |
| • | because of variations in the application of our business model to each of our services, our patents will be effective in preventing one or more third parties from utilizing a copycat business model to offer the same service in one or more categories; |
| • | new prior art will not be discovered that may diminish the value of or invalidate an issued patent; or |
| • | legislative or judicial action will not directly or indirectly affect the scope and validity of any of our patent rights, including the ability to obtain and enforce so called "business method patents". |
If we are not successful in protecting our intellectual property, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, brands and results of operations.
From time to time, in the ordinary course of our business, we have been subject to, and are currently subject to, legal proceedings and claims relating to the intellectual property rights of others, and we expect that third parties will continue to assert intellectual property claims, in particular patent claims, against us, particularly as we expand the complexity and scope of our business. For example, in February 2015, IBM sued us and certain of our subsidiaries asserting that we infringed certain IBM patents and claiming damages and injunctive relief. While we believe the suit to be without merit and intend to contest it, litigation is uncertain and we may not be successful. We endeavor to defend our intellectual property rights diligently, but intellectual property litigation is extremely expensive and time consuming, and may divert managerial attention and resources from our business objectives. Successful infringement claims against us could result in a significant monetary liability or prevent us from operating our business, or portions of our business. In addition, resolution of claims may require us to obtain licenses to use intellectual property rights belonging to third parties, which may be expensive to procure, or possibly to cease using those rights altogether. Any of these events could have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations and financial condition.
The success of our acquisition of OpenTable is subject to numerous risks and uncertainties.
On July 24, 2014, we acquired OpenTable, a leading brand for booking online restaurant reservations. We believe that the online restaurant reservation business is complementary to our online travel businesses, and that both OpenTable and our travel businesses will benefit from the addition of OpenTable to The Priceline Group. As a result of our acquisition of OpenTable, we are subject to risks associated with OpenTable's business, many of which are the same risks that our other businesses face. Other risks include: OpenTable's ability to increase the number of restaurants and diners using its products and services and retain existing restaurants and diners; OpenTable's ability to expand internationally; competition both to provide reservation management services to restaurants and to attract diners to make reservations through OpenTable's websites and apps; OpenTable's ability to effectively and efficiently market to new restaurants and diners; and any risks that cause people to refrain from dining at restaurants, such as economic downturns, severe weather, outbreaks of pandemic or contagious diseases, or threats of terrorist attacks. We have invested since the acquisition and intend to continue to invest in OpenTable to accelerate its global expansion, increase the value offered to its restaurant partners and enhance the end-to-end experience for consumers across desktop and mobile devices. As expected, these investments resulted in lower OpenTable post-acquisition EBITDA compared to pre-acquisition levels. However, the time required to execute these investments has exceeded our initial expectations. Despite the delays, we continue to believe that these investments will result in significant future earnings. Future events and changing market conditions may, however, lead us to reevaluate the assumptions we have used to test for goodwill impairment, including key assumptions regarding OpenTable's expected growth rates and operating margins, as well as other key assumptions with respect to matters outside of our control, such as discount rates, currency exchange rates and market EBITDA comparables. If OpenTable’s investments, in particular its investments in its global expansion efforts, are not successful, there is a substantial likelihood that we would recognize a related goodwill impairment, which could have a material adverse effect on our results of operations.
Investment in new business strategies and acquisitions could disrupt our ongoing business and present risks not originally contemplated.
We have invested, and in the future may invest, in new business strategies and acquisitions. Such endeavors may involve significant risks and uncertainties, including distraction of management from current operations, greater than expected liabilities and expenses, inadequate return on capital, and unidentified issues not discovered in our investigations and evaluations of those strategies and acquisitions. We may decide to make minority investments, including through joint ventures, in which we have limited or no management or operational control. The controlling person in such a case may have business interests, strategies or goals that are inconsistent with ours, and decisions of the company or venture in which we invested may result in harm to our reputation or adversely affect the value of our investment. Further, we may issue shares of our common stock in these transactions, which could result in dilution to our stockholders.
The value of our investments could decline, which could adversely affect our financial condition and results of operations.
We maintain an investment portfolio of various holdings, types and maturities. These securities are predominantly classified as available-for-sale and, consequently, are recorded in our Consolidated Balance Sheets at fair value with unrealized gains or losses reported as a component of accumulated other comprehensive income, net of tax. Our portfolio includes fixed income securities and equity securities of publicly traded companies, the values of which are subject to market price volatility. If such investments suffer market price declines, we may recognize in earnings the decline in the fair value of our investments below their cost basis when the decline is judged to be other than temporary. We have invested a significant amount in Ctrip convertible notes and ADSs. See Note 4 to our Consolidated Balance Sheets for more information regarding our investments in Ctrip securities. The value of these securities is subject to the risks associated with Ctrip's business, as well as any changes by the Chinese government in foreign investment laws or elevated scrutiny or regulation of foreign investments in Chinese companies. For example, because of foreign ownership restrictions applicable to its business, Ctrip is a Cayman Islands company operating in China through what is commonly referred to as a variable interest entity, or VIE, structure where it conducts part of its business through contractual relationships with affiliated Chinese entities. Although VIE structures are commonly used by Chinese Internet and e-commerce companies, there are substantial uncertainties regarding the interpretation and application of PRC laws and regulations to VIE structures, and it is possible that the PRC government may view the VIE structure as in violation of PRC law. VIE contractual relationships are not as effective in providing control over the affiliated Chinese companies as direct ownership, and Ctrip would have to rely on the PRC legal system to enforce those contracts in the event of a breach by one of these entities. Further, conflicts of interest could arise to the extent Ctrip's officers or directors are also shareholders, officers or directors of the affiliated Chinese entities. Any of these risks could materially and adversely affect Ctrip's business and therefore the value of our investment in Ctrip.
We also invest from time to time in private companies and these investments are generally accounted for under the cost method. Such investments are inherently risky in that such companies are typically at an early stage of development, may have no or limited revenues, may not be or ever become profitable, may not be able to secure additional funding or their technologies, services or products may not be successfully developed or introduced to the market. Further, our ability to liquidate any such investments is typically dependent on a liquidity event, such as a public offering or acquisition, as no public market exists for such securities. Valuations of privately-held companies are inherently complex and uncertain due to the lack of a liquid market for the company's securities. If we determine that any of our investments in such companies have experienced a decline in value, we may be required to record an other than temporary impairment.
We could lose the full amount of any of our investments, and any impairment of our investments could have a material adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
Our use of "open source" software could adversely affect our ability to protect our proprietary software and subject us to possible litigation.
We use open source software in connection with our software development. From time to time, companies that use open source software have faced claims challenging the use of open source software and/or compliance with open source license terms. We could be subject to suits by parties claiming ownership of what we believe to be open source software, or claiming non-compliance with open source licensing terms. Some open source licenses require users who distribute software containing open source to make available all or part of such software, which in some circumstances could include valuable proprietary code of the user. While we monitor our use of open source software and try to ensure that none is used in a manner that would require us to disclose our proprietary source code or that would otherwise breach the terms of an open source agreement, such use could inadvertently occur, in part because open source license terms are often ambiguous. Any requirement to disclose our proprietary source code or pay damages for breach of contract could be harmful to our business, results of operations or financial condition, and could help our competitors develop services that are similar to or better than ours.
Our business is exposed to risks associated with processing credit card transactions.
Our results have been negatively impacted by purchases made using fraudulent credit cards. Because we act as the merchant of record in many of our transactions, including a majority of our priceline.com, agoda.com and rentalcars.com transactions, we may be held liable for accepting fraudulent credit cards on our websites as well as other payment disputes with our customers. Additionally, we may be held liable for accepting fraudulent credit cards in certain retail transactions when we do not act as merchant of record. Accordingly, we calculate and record an allowance for the resulting credit card chargebacks. If we are unable to combat the use of fraudulent credit cards on our websites, our business, results of operations and financial condition could be materially adversely affected.
In addition, in the event that one of our major travel service providers voluntarily or involuntarily declares bankruptcy, we could experience an increase in credit card chargebacks from customers with travel reservations with such travel service provider. For example, airlines that participate in our services and declare bankruptcy or cease operations may be unable or unwilling to honor tickets sold for their flights. Our policy in such event is to direct customers seeking a refund or exchange to the airline, and not to provide a remedy ourselves. Because we are the merchant-of-record on sales of Name Your Own Price® and Express Deals® airline tickets to our customers, we could experience a significant increase in demands for refunds or credit card chargebacks from customers, which could materially adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition. We have in the past experienced an increase in credit card chargebacks from customers with tickets on airlines that ceased operations. Agoda.com and rentalcars.com process credit card transactions and operate in numerous currencies. Credit card costs are typically higher for foreign currency transactions and in instances where cancellations occur.
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