Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
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Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
We are exposed to cash flow and earnings fluctuations as a result of certain market risks. These market risks primarily relate to foreign exchange, interest rate and commodity price-related changes. We maintain a hedging program to manage volatility related to these market exposures which employs operational, economic and derivative financial instruments in order to mitigate risk. See Notes 1 and 12 of the “Notes to Consolidated
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Financial Statements” for further discussion regarding our use of derivative instruments.
Foreign Exchange Rate Sensitivity
By nature of our global operations, we are exposed to cash flow and earnings fluctuations resulting from foreign exchange rate variation. These exposures are transactional and translational in nature. Principal drivers of this foreign exchange exposure include the Canadian dollar, Thai baht, Mexican peso, Chinese renminbi, European euro, Japanese yen, Singapore dollar, and Malaysian ringgit.
Transactional Exposure
Transactional exposure arises from the purchase and sale of goods and services in currencies other than our functional currency or the functional currency of our subsidiaries. As part of our risk management program, at the end of each fiscal year we perform a sensitivity analysis on our forecasted transactional exposure for the upcoming fiscal year. These analyses include the estimated impact of our hedging program, which mitigates transactional exposure. At June 30, 2014 and 2013, we had hedged approximately 48 and 45 percent of transactional exposures, respectively. The following table summarizes the analysis as it relates to transactional exposure and the impact of a hypothetical 10 percent increase or decrease at June 30:
| (in millions) | 2014 | 2013 | |||||
| Net estimated transactional exposure | $ | 378 | $ | 368 | |||
| Sensitivity gain/loss | $ | 38 | $ | 37 | |||
| Estimated offsetting impact of hedges | (18 | ) | (17 | ) | |||
| Estimated net gain/loss | $ | 20 | $ | 20 |
Translational Exposure
We have exposure related to the translation of financial statements of our foreign operations into U.S. dollars, our functional currency. We perform a similar analysis to that described above related to this translational exposure. We do not typically hedge any of our translational exposure and no hedging impact was included in our analysis at June 30, 2014 and 2013. The following table summarizes translational exposure and the impact of a hypothetical 10 percent strengthening or weakening in the U.S. dollar at June 30:
| (in millions) | 2014 | 2013 | |||||
| Net estimated translational exposure | $ | 62 | $ | 53 | |||
| Sensitivity gain/loss | 6 | 5 |
Interest Rate Sensitivity
We are exposed to changes in interest rates primarily as a result of our borrowing and investing activities to maintain liquidity and fund operations. The nature and amount of our long-term and short-term debt can be expected to fluctuate as a result of business requirements, market conditions and other factors. Our policy is to manage exposures to interest rates using a mix of fixed and floating rate debt as deemed appropriate by
management. We utilize interest rate swap instruments to mitigate our exposure to interest rate movements.
As part of our risk management program, we perform an annual sensitivity analysis on our forecasted exposure to interest rates for the following fiscal year. This analysis assumes a hypothetical 10 percent change in interest rates. At June 30, 2014 and 2013, the potential increase or decrease in annual interest expense under this analysis as a result of this hypothetical change was $4 million and $2 million, respectively.
During fiscal 2014, we purchased marketable securities, which are classified as available-for-sale and are carried at fair value in the consolidated balance sheets. The fair value is subject to change primarily as a result of changes in market interest rates and investment risk related to the issuers' credit worthiness. At June 30, 2014, a hypothetical increase or decrease of 100 basis points in interest rates would cause a potential decrease of up to $1 million in the estimated fair value.
Commodity Price Sensitivity
We are exposed to market price changes for commodities, including oil-based resins, cotton, latex, and diesel fuel. We typically purchase raw materials at market prices and some finished goods at prices based in part on a commodity price index. As part of our risk management program, we perform sensitivity analysis on our forecasted commodity exposure for the following fiscal year. Our forecasted commodity exposure at June 30, 2014 decreased from the prior year primarily as a result of commodity prices and changes in purchasing volumes.
At June 30, 2014 and 2013, we had hedged a portion of these commodity exposures (see Note 12 of the “Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements” for further discussion). The table below summarizes our analysis of these forecasted commodity exposures and a hypothetical 10 percent fluctuation in commodity prices at June 30:
| (in millions) | 2014 | 2013 | |||||
| Estimated commodity exposure | $ | 321 | $ | 369 | |||
| Sensitivity gain/loss | $ | 32 | $ | 37 | |||
| Estimated offsetting impact of hedges | (1 | ) | (1 | ) | |||
| Estimated net gain/loss | $ | 31 | $ | 36 |
We also are exposed to fluctuations in commodities' prices through the purchase of finished goods and various other energy-related commodities, including natural gas and electricity, through our normal course of business where our contracts are not directly tied to a commodity index. We believe our total gross range of exposure to commodities, including the items listed in the table above, is $400 million to $500 million at June 30, 2014.
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