Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk

Market Sensitive Instruments and Risk Management

Market risk represents the potential for loss due to adverse changes in the fair value of financial instruments. We are exposed to potential losses from various market risks including changes in interest rates, equity prices, and foreign currency exchange rates. Further, through writing the GLB and GMDB products, we are exposed to volatility in the equity and credit markets, as well as interest rates. Our investment portfolio consists primarily of fixed income securities, denominated in both U.S. dollars and foreign currencies, which are sensitive to changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates. The majority of our fixed income portfolio is classified as available for sale. The effect of market movements on our fixed maturities portfolio impacts Net income (through Net realized gains (losses)) when securities are sold, when we write down an asset, or when we record a change to the allowance for expected credit losses. Changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates will have an immediate effect on Shareholders' equity and Comprehensive income and in certain instances, Net income. From time to time, we also use derivative instruments such as futures, options, swaps, and foreign currency forward contracts to manage the duration of our investment portfolio and foreign currency exposures and also to obtain exposure to a particular financial market. At December 31, 2020 and 2019, our notional exposure to derivative instruments was $5.3 billion and $4.9 billion, respectively. These instruments are recognized as assets or liabilities in our Consolidated Financial Statements and are sensitive to changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, and equity security prices. As part of our investing activities, from time to time we purchase to be announced mortgage backed securities (TBAs). Changes in the fair value of TBAs are included in Net realized gains (losses) and therefore, have an immediate effect on both our Net income and Shareholders' equity.

We seek to mitigate market risk using a number of techniques, including maintaining and managing the assets and liabilities of our international operations consistent with the foreign currencies of the underlying insurance and reinsurance businesses, thereby limiting exchange rate risk to net assets denominated in foreign currencies.

The following is a discussion of our primary market risk exposures at December 31, 2020. Our policies to address these risks in 2020 were not materially different from 2019. We do not currently anticipate significant changes in our primary market risk exposures or in how those exposures are managed in future reporting periods based upon what is known or expected to be in effect in future reporting periods.

Interest rate risk – fixed income portfolio and debt obligations

Our fixed income portfolio and debt obligations have exposure to interest rate risk. Changes in investment values attributable to interest rate changes are mitigated by corresponding and partially offsetting changes in the economic value of our insurance reserves and debt obligations. We monitor this exposure through periodic reviews of our asset and liability positions.

The following table presents the impact at December 31, 2020 and 2019, on the fair value of our fixed income portfolio of a hypothetical increase in interest rates of 100 bps applied instantly across the U.S. yield curve (an immediate time horizon was used as this presents the worst case scenario):

Changes in interest rates will have an immediate effect on Comprehensive income and Shareholders' equity but will not ordinarily have an immediate effect on Net income. Variations in market interest rates could produce significant changes in the timing of prepayments due to available prepayment options. For these reasons, actual results could differ from those reflected in the tables.

Although our debt and trust preferred securities (collectively referred to as debt obligations) are reported at amortized cost and not adjusted for fair value changes, changes in interest rates could have a material impact on their fair value, albeit there would be no impact on our Consolidated Financial Statements.

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The following table presents the impact at December 31, 2020 and 2019, on the fair value of our debt obligations of a hypothetical decrease in interest rates of 100 bps applied instantly across the U.S. yield curve (an immediate time horizon was used as this presents the worst case scenario):

Foreign currency management

As a global company, Chubb entities transact business in multiple currencies. Our policy is to generally match assets, liabilities and required capital for each individual jurisdiction in local currency, which would include the use of derivatives. We do not hedge our net asset non-U.S. dollar capital positions; however, we do consider hedging for planned cross border transactions.

The following table summarizes the net assets (liabilities) in non-U.S. currencies at December 31, 2020 and 2019:

NM – not meaningful

(1) Comprised Euro denominated debt of $5.2 billion, partially offset by net assets of $2.1 billion at December 31, 2020 and Euro denominated debt of $4.8 billion, partially offset by net assets of $1.7 billion at December 31, 2019.

(2) At December 31, 2020, net assets denominated in foreign currencies comprised approximately 46 percent goodwill and other intangible assets.

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Reinsurance of GMDB and GLB guarantees

Chubb views its variable annuity reinsurance business as having a similar risk profile to that of catastrophe reinsurance with the probability of long-term economic loss relatively small, at the time of pricing. Adverse changes in market factors and policyholder behavior will have an impact on both realized gains (losses) and net income for GLB and both Life Insurance underwriting income and net income for GMDB. When evaluating these risks, we expect to be compensated for taking both the risk of a cumulative long-term economic net loss, as well as the short-term accounting variations caused by these market movements. Therefore, we evaluate this business in terms of its long-term economic risk and reward.

For the GMDB reinsurance business, net income is directly impacted by changes in future policy benefit reserves. For the GLB reinsurance business, net income is directly impacted by changes in the fair value of the GLB liability (FVL), which is classified as a derivative for accounting purposes. The FVL calculation is directly affected by market factors, including equity levels, interest rate levels, credit risk, and implied volatilities, as well as policyholder behaviors, such as annuitization and lapse rates, and policyholder mortality.

The tables below are estimates of the sensitivities to instantaneous changes in economic inputs (e.g., equity shock, interest rate shock, etc.) or actuarial assumptions at December 31, 2020 of the FVL and of the fair value of specific derivative instruments held (hedge value) to partially offset the risk in the variable annuity guarantee reinsurance portfolio. The following assumptions should be considered when using the below tables:

• Equity shocks impact all global equity markets equally

• Our liabilities are sensitive to global equity markets in the following proportions: 75 percent—85 percent U.S. equity, and 15 percent—25 percent international equity.

• Our current hedge portfolio is sensitive only to U.S. equity markets.

• We would suggest using the S&P 500 index as a proxy for U.S. equity, and the MSCI EAFE index as a proxy for international equity.

• Interest rate shocks assume a parallel shift in the U.S. yield curve

• Our liabilities are also sensitive to global interest rates at various points on the yield curve, mainly the U.S. Treasury curve in the following proportions: 5 percent—15 percent short-term rates (maturing in less than 5 years), 15 percent—25 percent medium-term rates (maturing between 5 years and 10 years, inclusive), and 65 percent—75 percent long-term rates (maturing beyond 10 years).

• A change in AA-rated credit spreads impacts the rate used to discount cash flows in the fair value model. AA-rated credit spreads are a proxy for both our own credit spreads and the credit spreads of the ceding insurers.

• The hedge sensitivity is from December 31, 2020 market levels and only applicable to the equity and interest rate sensitivities table below.

• The sensitivities are not directly additive because changes in one factor will affect the sensitivity to changes in other factors. The sensitivities do not scale linearly and may be proportionally greater for larger movements in the market factors. The sensitivities may also vary due to foreign exchange rate fluctuations. The calculation of the FVL is based on internal models that include assumptions regarding future policyholder behavior, including lapse, annuitization, and asset allocation. These assumptions impact both the absolute level of the FVL as well as the sensitivities to changes in market factors shown below. Actual sensitivity of our net income may differ from those disclosed in the tables below due to fluctuations in short-term market movements.

• In addition, the tables below do not reflect the expected quarterly run rate of net income generated by the variable annuity guarantee reinsurance portfolio if markets remain unchanged during the period. All else equal, if markets remain unchanged during the period, the FVL will increase, resulting in a realized loss. This realized loss occurs primarily because the guarantees provided in the underlying contracts continue to become more valuable even when markets remain unchanged. We refer to this increase in FVL as “timing effect”. The unfavorable impact of timing effect on our FVL in a quarter is not reflected in the sensitivity tables below. For this reason, when using the tables below to estimate the sensitivity of FVL in the first quarter 2021 to various changes, it is necessary to assume an additional $5 million to $45 million increase in FVL and realized losses. Note that both the timing effect and the quarterly run rate impact to net income change over time as the book ages.

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Variable Annuity Net Amount at Risk

All our VA reinsurance treaties include annual or aggregate claim limits and many include an aggregate deductible which limit the net amount at risk under these programs. The tables below present the net amount at risk at December 31, 2020 following an immediate change in equity market levels, assuming all global equity markets are impacted equally.

a) Reinsurance covering the GMDB risk only

The treaty claim limits function as a ceiling as equity markets fall. As the shocks in the table above become incrementally more negative, the impact on the NAR and claims at 100 percent mortality begin to drop due to the specific nature of these claim limits, many of which are annual claim limits calculated as a percentage of the reinsured account value. There is also some impact due to a small portion of the GMDB reinsurance under which claims are positively correlated to equity markets (claims decrease as equity markets fall).

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b) Reinsurance covering the GLB risk only

The treaty claim limits cause the net amount at risk to increase at a declining rate as equity markets fall.

c) Reinsurance covering both the GMDB and GLB risks on the same underlying policyholders

The treaty limits control the increase in the GMDB net amount at risk as equity markets fall. The GMDB net amount at risk continues to increase as equity markets fall because most of these reinsurance treaties do not have annual claim limits calculated as a percentage of the underlying account value. The treaty limits cause the GLB net amount at risk to increase at a declining rate as equity markets fall.