Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk
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Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk
Market Sensitive Instruments and Risk Management
Market risk represents the potential for loss due to adverse changes in the fair value of financial instruments. We are exposed to potential losses from various market risks including changes in interest rates, equity prices, and foreign currency exchange rates. Further, through writing guaranteed living benefits (GLB) and guaranteed minimum death benefits (GMDB) products, collectively referred to as market risk benefits (MRB), we are exposed to volatility in the equity and credit markets, as well as interest rates. Our investment portfolio consists primarily of fixed income securities, denominated in both U.S. dollars and foreign currencies, which are sensitive to changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates. The majority of our fixed income portfolio is classified as available-for-sale. The effect of market movements on our fixed maturities available-for-sale portfolio impacts Net income (through Net realized gains (losses)) when securities are sold, when we write down an asset, or when we record a change to the allowance for expected credit losses. Changes in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates will have an immediate effect on Shareholders' equity and Comprehensive income and, in certain instances, Net income. The effect of market movements on fixed maturities related to consolidated investment products in the Huatai portfolio (Fixed maturities - CIP) impacts Net income (through Net realized gains (losses)). From time to time, we also use derivative instruments such as futures, options, swaps, and foreign currency forward contracts to manage the duration of our investment portfolio and foreign currency exposures, and also to obtain exposure to a particular financial market. At December 31, 2024 and 2023, our notional exposure to derivative instruments was $10.2 billion and $10.4 billion, respectively. These instruments are recognized as assets or liabilities in our Consolidated Financial Statements and are sensitive to changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, and equity security prices. As part of our investing activities, from time to time we purchase to be announced
mortgage-backed securities (TBAs). Changes in the fair value of TBAs are included in Net realized gains (losses) and, therefore, have an immediate effect on both our Net income and Shareholders' equity.
We seek to mitigate market risk using a number of techniques, including maintaining and managing the assets and liabilities of our international operations consistent with the foreign currencies of the underlying insurance and reinsurance businesses, thereby limiting exchange rate risk to net assets denominated in foreign currencies. From time to time, we use derivatives to hedge planned cross-border transactions, and designate certain derivatives to hedge foreign currency risk on our euro denominated debt and exposure in the net investments of certain foreign subsidiaries.
The following is a discussion of our primary market risk exposures at December 31, 2024. Our policies to address these risks in 2024 were not materially different from 2023. We do not currently anticipate significant changes in our primary market risk exposures or in how those exposures are managed in future reporting periods based upon what is known or expected to be in effect in future reporting periods.
Interest rate risk – fixed income portfolio and debt obligations
Our fixed income portfolio and debt obligations have exposure to interest rate risk. Changes in investment values attributable to interest rate changes are mitigated by corresponding and partially offsetting changes in the economic value of our insurance reserves and debt obligations. We monitor this exposure through periodic reviews of our asset and liability positions.
The following table presents the impact at December 31, 2024 and 2023, on the fair value of our fixed income portfolio of a hypothetical increase in interest rates of 100 bps applied instantly across the U.S. yield curve (an immediate time horizon was used as this presents the worst case scenario):
| (in billions of U.S. dollars, except for percentages) | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||||||
| Fair value of fixed income portfolio | $ | 121.8 | $ | 114.9 | ||||||||||
| Pre-tax impact of 100 bps increase in interest rates: | ||||||||||||||
| Decrease in dollars | $ | 6.2 | $ | 5.5 | ||||||||||
| As a percentage of total fixed income portfolio at fair value | 5.1 | % | 4.8 | % |
Changes in interest rates will have an immediate effect on Comprehensive income and Shareholders' equity for our available-for- sale portfolio but will not ordinarily have an immediate effect on Net income. Variations in market interest rates could produce significant changes in the timing of prepayments due to available prepayment options. For these reasons, actual results could differ from those reflected in the tables. Changes in interest rates for our fixed income – consolidated investment products will have an immediate impact on Net income (through Net realized gains (losses)).
Although our debt and hybrid debt (collectively referred to as debt obligations) are reported at amortized cost and not adjusted for fair value changes, changes in interest rates could have a material impact on their fair value, albeit there would be no impact on our Consolidated Financial Statements.
The following table presents the impact at December 31, 2024 and 2023, on the fair value of our debt obligations of a hypothetical decrease in interest rates of 100 bps applied instantly across the U.S. yield curve (an immediate time horizon was used as this presents the worst case scenario):
| (in billions of U.S. dollars, except for percentages) | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||||||
| Fair value of debt obligations, including repurchase agreements | $ | 17.0 | $ | 16.6 | ||||||||||
| Pre-tax impact of 100 bps decrease in interest rates: | ||||||||||||||
| Increase in dollars | $ | 1.1 | $ | 1.1 | ||||||||||
| As a percentage of total debt obligations at fair value | 6.2 | % | 6.6 | % |
Foreign currency management
As a global company, Chubb entities transact business in multiple currencies. Our policy is to generally match assets, liabilities and required capital for each individual jurisdiction in local currency, which would include the use of derivatives.
The following table summarizes the unhedged portion of net assets (liabilities) in non-U.S. currencies at December 31, 2024 and 2023, and excludes noncontrolling interests:
| 2024 | 2023 | 2024 vs. 2023 % change in exchange rate per USD | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions of U.S. dollars, except for percentages) | Value of unhedged net assets (liabilities) | Exchange rate per USD | Value of unhedged net assets (liabilities) | Exchange rate per USD | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Korean won (KRW) (x100) | $ | 6,516 | 0.0676 | $ | 6,115 | 0.0775 | (12.8) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY) (1) | 3,709 | 0.1370 | 5,172 | 0.1408 | (2.7) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Canadian dollar (CAD) | 2,194 | 0.6952 | 2,362 | 0.7551 | (7.9) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Australian dollar (AUD) | 1,660 | 0.6188 | 1,661 | 0.6812 | (9.2) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mexican peso (MXN) | 852 | 0.0480 | 973 | 0.0589 | (18.5) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| British pound sterling (GBP) | 608 | 1.2516 | 588 | 1.2731 | (1.7) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Hong Kong dollar (HKD) | 568 | 0.1287 | 388 | 0.1280 | 0.5 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Thai baht (THB) | 561 | 0.0291 | 575 | 0.0292 | (0.3) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| New Taiwan dollar (TWD) | 539 | 0.0305 | 647 | 0.0327 | (6.7) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Euro (EUR) (2) | (797) | 1.0354 | (1,835) | 1.1039 | (6.2) | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other foreign currencies | 2,716 | various | 2,924 | various | NM | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Value of unhedged portion of net assets denominated in foreign currencies (3) | $ | 19,126 | $ | 19,570 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| As a percentage of total net assets | 29.9 | % | 32.9 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-tax decrease to Chubb Shareholders' equity of a hypothetical 10 percent strengthening of the USD | $ | 1,739 | $ | 1,779 |
NM – not meaningful
(1) 2024 excludes hedged Chinese yuan renminbi net assets of $1.3 billion.
(2) Includes unhedged portion of euro denominated debt of $2.3 billion and net assets of $1.5 billion in 2024, and $3.1 billion and $1.3 billion, respectively, in 2023. Excludes hedged euro denominated debt of $1.6 billion in 2024 and 2023.
(3) The unhedged net assets denominated in foreign currencies comprised goodwill and other intangible assets of approximately 47 percent and 52 percent at December 31, 2024 and 2023, respectively.
Chubb holds certain cross-currency swaps designated as fair value hedges and net investment hedges for foreign currency exposure associated with portions of our euro denominated debt and the net investment in certain foreign subsidiaries, respectively. These cross-currency swaps are agreements under which two counterparties exchange principal and interest payments in different currencies at a future date.
The objective of the fair value cross-currency swaps is to hedge euro 1.5 billion of the foreign currency risk on our euro denominated debt by converting cash flows back into the U.S dollar. The objective of the net investment cross-currency swaps is to hedge the foreign currency exposure in the net investments of certain foreign subsidiaries by converting cash flows from U.S. dollar to the British pound sterling (GBP 957 million), Japanese yen (JPY 43.0 billion), Swiss franc (CHF 96 million), and Chinese yuan renminbi (CNY 9.3 billion). The hedged risk is designated as the foreign currency exposure arising between the functional currency of the foreign subsidiary and the functional currency of its parent entity. For additional information refer to Note 14 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Reinsurance of market risk benefits
Market risk benefits (MRB) are measured at fair value using a valuation model based on current net exposures, market data, our experience, and other factors. Changes in fair value are recorded to Market risk benefits gains (losses) in the Consolidated statements of operations, except for the change in fair value due to a change in the instrument-specific credit risk which is recognized in Other comprehensive income. For additional information refer to Note 1 m) and Note 11 to the Consolidated Financial Statements, under Item 8.
Chubb views its MRB reinsurance business as having a similar risk profile to that of catastrophe reinsurance, with the probability of long-term economic loss relatively small at the time of pricing. Adverse changes in market factors and policyholder behavior will have an impact on both MRB gains (losses) and net income. When evaluating these risks, we expect to be compensated for taking both the risk of a cumulative long-term economic net loss, as well as the short-term accounting variations caused by these market movements. Therefore, we evaluate this business in terms of its long-term economic risk and reward.
The tables below are estimates of the sensitivities to instantaneous changes in economic inputs (e.g., equity shock, interest rate shock, etc.) at December 31, 2024, for both the fair value of the MRB liability (FVL) and the fair value of specific derivative instruments held (hedge value) to partially offset the risk in the MRB reinsurance portfolio. The following assumptions should be considered when using the below tables:
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Equity shocks impact all global equity markets equally
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Our liabilities are sensitive to global equity markets in the following proportions: 80 percent—90 percent U.S. equity, and 10 percent—20 percent international equity.
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Our current hedge portfolio is sensitive only to U.S. equity markets.
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We would suggest using the S&P 500 index as a proxy for U.S. equity, and the MSCI EAFE index as a proxy for international equity.
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Interest rate shocks assume a parallel shift in the U.S. yield curve
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Our liabilities are also sensitive to global interest rates at various points on the yield curve, mainly the U.S. Treasury curve in the following proportions: up to 15 percent short-term rates (maturing in less than 5 years), 15 percent—30 percent medium-term rates (maturing between 5 years and 10 years, inclusive), and 65 percent—80 percent long-term rates (maturing beyond 10 years).
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A change in AA-rated credit spreads impacts the rate used to discount cash flows in the fair value model. AA-rated credit spreads are a proxy for both our own credit spreads and the credit spreads of the ceding insurers.
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The hedge sensitivity is from December 31, 2024, market levels and only applicable to the equity and interest rate sensitivities table below.
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The sensitivities do not scale linearly and may be proportionally greater for larger movements in the market factors. Actual sensitivity of our net income may differ from those disclosed in the tables below due to fluctuations in short-term market movements.
| Sensitivities to equity and interest rate movements | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions of U.S. dollars) | Worldwide Equity Shock | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Interest Rate Shock | +10 | % | Flat | -10 | % | -20 | % | -30 | % | -40 | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| +100 bps | (Increase)/decrease in FVL | $ | 244 | $ | 164 | $ | 64 | $ | (61) | $ | (218) | $ | (427) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase/(decrease) in hedge value | (101) | — | 101 | 202 | 304 | 405 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase/(decrease) in net income | $ | 143 | $ | 164 | $ | 165 | $ | 141 | $ | 86 | $ | (22) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Flat | (Increase)/decrease in FVL | $ | 99 | $ | — | $ | (120) | $ | (266) | $ | (452) | $ | (690) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase/(decrease) in hedge value | (101) | — | 101 | 202 | 304 | 405 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase/(decrease) in net income | $ | (2) | $ | — | $ | (19) | $ | (64) | $ | (148) | $ | (285) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| -100 bps | (Increase)/decrease in FVL | $ | (84) | $ | (202) | $ | (342) | $ | (511) | $ | (728) | $ | (992) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase/(decrease) in hedge value | (101) | — | 101 | 202 | 304 | 405 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase/(decrease) in net income | $ | (185) | $ | (202) | $ | (241) | $ | (309) | $ | (424) | $ | (587) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Sensitivities to Other Economic Variables | AA-rated Credit Spreads | Interest Rate Volatility | Equity Volatility | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions of U.S. dollars) | +100 bps | -100 bps | +2 | % | -2 | % | +2 | % | -2 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (Increase)/decrease in FVL | $ | 42 | $ | (47) | $ | (1) | $ | 1 | $ | (15) | $ | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Increase/(decrease) in net income | $ | 42 | $ | (47) | $ | (1) | $ | 1 | $ | (15) | $ | 14 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Market Risk Benefits Net Amount at Risk
All our MRB reinsurance treaties include annual or aggregate claim limits and many include an aggregate deductible which limit the net amount at risk under these programs. The tables below present the net amount at risk at December 31, 2024, following an immediate change in equity market levels, assuming all global equity markets are impacted equally.
a) Reinsurance covering the GMDB risk only
| Equity Shock | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions of U.S. dollars) | +20 | % | Flat | -20 | % | -40 | % | -60 | % | -80 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GMDB net amount at risk | $ | 210 | $ | 208 | $ | 360 | $ | 618 | $ | 626 | $ | 507 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Claims at 100% immediate mortality | 130 | 136 | 146 | 136 | 125 | 111 |
The treaty limits function as a ceiling as equity markets fall. As the shocks in the table above become incrementally more negative, the impacts begin to drop due to the specific nature of these claim limits, many of which are annual claim limits calculated as a percentage of the reinsured account value. There is also an impact due to a portion of the reinsurance under which claims are positively correlated to equity markets (claims decrease as equity markets fall).
b) Reinsurance covering the GLB risk only
| Equity Shock | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions of U.S. dollars) | +20 | % | Flat | -20 | % | -40 | % | -60 | % | -80 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLB net amount at risk | $ | 702 | $ | 912 | $ | 1,242 | $ | 1,762 | $ | 2,059 | $ | 2,335 |
The treaty limits cause the net amount at risk to increase at a declining rate as equity markets fall.
c) Reinsurance covering both the GMDB and GLB risks on the same underlying policyholders
| Equity Shock | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions of U.S. dollars) | +20 | % | Flat | -20 | % | -40 | % | -60 | % | -80 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| GMDB net amount at risk | $ | 35 | $ | 41 | $ | 50 | $ | 60 | $ | 68 | $ | 75 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| GLB net amount at risk | 292 | 359 | 449 | 561 | 673 | 719 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Claims at 100% immediate mortality | 26 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 |
The treaty limits cause the GMDB and GLB net amount at risk to increase at a declining rate as equity markets fall.
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