Item 1A. Risk Factors.
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Item 1A. Risk Factors.
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You should carefully consider the specific risk factors set forth below and the other information contained or incorporated by reference in this Form 10-K, as these are important factors that could cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differ materially from our expected or historical results. Some of the statements in this item and elsewhere in this Form 10-K are “forward-looking statements.” For a discussion of those statements and of other factors to consider see the “Cautionary Note Concerning Factors That May Affect Future Results” section below.
| • | General economic and business conditions may adversely impact consumer demand for vacations and, consequently, reduce our cruise brands’ net revenue yields and profitability. |
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Demand for cruises is in part dependent on the underlying perceived or actual economic condition of the countries from which cruise companies source their guests. Adverse changes in the perceived or actual economic climate, such as higher unemployment and underemployment rates; declines in income levels; securities, real estate and other market declines and volatility; increasing taxation; higher fuel prices and healthcare costs; more restrictive credit markets; higher interest rates and changes in governmental regulations, could reduce our potential vacationers’ discretionary incomes, net worth or their consumer confidence. Consequently, this may negatively affect demand for vacations, including cruise vacations, which are a discretionary purchase. Decreases in demand could lead to price reductions which, in turn, could reduce the profitability of our business. These ticket price reductions may result in a less affluent guest base, which along with decreases in discretionary income or consumer confidence could also result in lower onboard revenues that could also have a negative effect on our net revenue yields and profitability. Given the mobility of our ships, we can mitigate some of this risk by redeploying our ships to more profitable regions as guests’ tastes change and if economic or other conditions warrant.
| • | Increases in fuel prices may adversely affect our operations, financial condition and liquidity. |
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Economic, market and political conditions around the world, such as fuel demand, regulatory requirements, supply disruptions and related infrastructure needs, make it difficult to predict the future price and availability of fuel. Fuel costs accounted for 21%, 23% and 21% of our cruise operating expenses in 2013, 2012 and 2011, respectively. Future increases in the global price of fuel would increase the cost of our cruise ship operations as well as some of our other expenses, such as crew travel, freight and commodity prices. We may be unable to implement additional fuel conservation initiatives and other best practices or increase ticket prices and collect fuel supplements, which would help to fully or partially offset these fuel price increases. See risks relating to environmental laws and regulations, continuing financial viability of air service providers and failures to keep pace with technology below for additional information regarding our fuel risks.
To mitigate a portion of our economic risk attributable to potential fuel price increases, we have established a fuel derivatives program. To date under this program, we have bought Brent crude oil (“Brent”) call options and sold Brent put options, collectively referred to as zero cost collars, that established ceiling and floor prices. These derivatives are based on Brent prices whereas the actual fuel used on our ships is marine fuel. Changes in the Brent prices may not show a high degree of correlation with changes in our underlying marine fuel prices. In addition, there can be no assurance that our fuel derivatives program will provide a sufficient level of protection against increases in fuel prices or that our counterparties will be able to perform, such as in the case of a counterparty bankruptcy. The zero cost collars will reduce our benefit if Brent prices drop below the floor. Also, the fuel derivative contracts may create significant volatility in our U.S. GAAP earnings due to volatility in fuel prices over the contracts’ terms. Furthermore, volatility in fuel prices could have a material adverse effect on our operations, financial condition and liquidity. We may be able to mitigate some of the risk of fuel price increases by continuing to reduce our fuel consumption. Furthermore, we expect to install scrubbers on most of our ships between 2014 and 2019. As a result of installing these scrubbers, we believe the cost of complying with more stringent emission regulations will not be significant to our results of operations.
Finally, we believe that our land-based vacation competitors’ operating costs are less affected by fuel price increases than cruise companies. Accordingly, fuel price increases may adversely impact cruise companies more than their land-based competitors.
| • | Incidents, the spread of contagious diseases and threats thereof, adverse weather conditions or other natural disasters and other incidents affecting the health, safety, security and satisfaction of guests and crew could have an adverse effect on our sales and profitability. |
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The operation of cruise ships, hotels, land tours, port and related commercial facilities and shore excursions involve the risk of incidents, including those caused by the improper operation of our ships, motorcoaches and trains; guest and crew illnesses, such as from the spread of contagious diseases; mechanical failures; fires and collisions; repair delays; groundings; navigational errors; oil spills and other maritime and environmental mishaps; missing passengers and other incidents at sea or while in port or on land, which may cause injury and death, guest and crew discomfort and the alteration of itineraries or cancellation of a cruise or series of cruises or tours. Although we place guest and crew safety as the highest priority in all our operations, our ships have been involved in accidents and other incidents in the past. We may experience similar or other incidents in the future, even though we have and will implement policies, procedures and best practices to limit their future occurrence. These types of incidents may bring into question guest and crew health, safety, security and satisfaction and may adversely affect our brand reputation and demand for the brand, and cruising in general, and may affect our sales and profitability, may result in additional costs to our business, litigation against us and increasing government or other regulatory oversight. It is possible that the initiatives we implement to increase our net revenue yields as a result of our 2012 and 2013 ship incidents may not be effective, and our pricing and profitability may not return to pre-incident or higher levels.
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In particular, our ability to effectively and efficiently operate shipboard and shoreside activities may be impacted by widespread public health issues/illnesses or health warnings resulting in, among other things, reduced demand for cruises and cruise cancellations and employee absenteeism that could have an adverse effect on our sales and profitability. We have implemented crew training and ship cleaning protocols to limit the spread of contagious diseases, but such actions may not be sufficient to fully mitigate this risk. For example, a severe outbreak of the influenza virus or some other pandemic could, among other things, disrupt our ability to embark/disembark passengers and crew, disrupt air travel to and from ports, increase costs for prevention and treatment and adversely affect our supply chain. This could also adversely impact cruise demand in areas unaffected by such an outbreak.
In addition, as mentioned above, our ships are subject to the risks of mechanical failures and accidents, for which we have had to incur repair and equipment replacement expenditures. If these occur in the future, we may be unable to procure spare parts or new equipment when needed or make repairs without incurring significant expenditures or suspension of service. However, we do maintain an inventory of certain strategic spare parts to help mitigate this risk. A significant performance deficiency or problem on any one or more of our ships could have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.
Our cruise ships, hotels, land tours, port and related commercial facilities, shore excursions and other service providers may be impacted by adverse weather patterns or other natural disasters, such as hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, fires, tornados, tsunamis, typhoons and volcanic eruptions. These events could result in, among other things, increased port related and other costs. It is possible that we could be forced to alter itineraries or cancel a cruise or a series of cruises or tours due to these or other factors, which would have an adverse effect on our sales and profitability.
The frequency of extreme weather events such as hurricanes and floods, which may be caused by climate change, may not only cause disruption, alteration, or cancellation of cruises but may also adversely impact commercial airline flights, other transport and shore excursion activities or prevent our guests from electing to cruise altogether. Such extreme weather events may also disrupt the supply of provisions, fuel and shore power, and may limit our ability to safely embark and disembark our guests. In addition, these extreme weather conditions could result in increased wave and wind activity, which would make it more challenging to sail and dock our ships and could cause sea/motion sickness among guests and crew. These events could have an adverse impact on the safety and satisfaction of cruising and could have an adverse impact on our sales and profitability. Finally, these extreme weather conditions could cause property damage to our ships, port and related commercial facilities and other assets and impact our ability to obtain insurance coverage for operations in such areas at reasonable rates.
Furthermore, some of the same factors that impact our guests’ decisions to cruise with us may also impact our ability to employ qualified crew.
| • | The international political climate, armed conflicts, terrorist and pirate attacks, vessel seizures, and threats thereof, and other world events affecting the safety and security of travel could adversely affect the demand for cruises and could harm our future sales and profitability. |
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Demand for cruises and other vacation options has been and is expected to continue to be affected by the public’s attitude towards the safety and security of travel. Factors including, but not limited to, past acts of terrorism, threats of additional terrorist attacks, drug-related violence in Mexico, pirate attacks and vessel seizures off the east and west coasts of Africa, national government travel advisories, political instability in North Africa, the Middle East and elsewhere and general concerns over the safety and security aspects of traveling have had a significant adverse impact on demand and pricing in the travel and vacation industry in the past and may have an adverse impact in the future. Decreases in demand may lead to price reductions, which in turn would reduce our profitability. These types of events could also impact our ability to source qualified crew from throughout the world at competitive costs and, therefore, increase our shipboard crew costs. We have implemented various safety and security policies, procedures and best practices to help mitigate this risk, but it is still possible that they could occur.
| • | Negative publicity concerning the cruise business in general or us in particular, including any adverse environmental impacts of cruising, could impact the demand for cruises, affect our reputation and harm our future sales and profitability. |
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Incidents involving cruise ships, in particular our cruise ships, and media coverage thereof, as well as adverse media publicity concerning the cruise vacation industry in general, or unusual weather patterns or other natural disasters or disruptions, such as hurricanes and earthquakes, could impact demand for our cruises. In addition, any events which impact the travel industry more generally may negatively impact guests’ ability or desire to travel to or from our ships or interrupt our ability to obtain services and goods from key vendors in our supply chain. Any of the foregoing could have an adverse impact on our result of operations and on the cruise business performance.
Maintaining a good reputation is critical to our business. Reports and media coverage of ship incidents at sea or while in port, including missing guests, improper conduct by our employees, guests or agents, crimes, dissatisfied guests, crew and guest illnesses, such as incidents of stomach flu, parasitic outbreaks or other contagious diseases, security breaches, terrorist threats and attacks and other adverse events can result in negative publicity, which could lead to a negative perception regarding the safety of our ships and the satisfaction of our guests. In addition, negative publicity regarding adverse environmental impacts of cruising, such as climate change and oil spills, could diminish our reputation. The considerable expansion in the use of social media over recent years has increased the ways in which our reputation can be impacted, and the speed with which it
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can occur. Anything that damages our reputation, whether or not justified, could have an adverse impact on demand, which could lead to price reductions and a reduction in our sales and profitability. We leverage the reach and impact of digital marketing and social media, such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, Blog, Google+, Flickr, Instagram and Pinterest to provide accurate information to the media, popular bloggers, fans and brand advocates to mitigate some of the risk of negative publicity.
| • | Litigation, enforcement actions, fines or penalties could adversely impact our financial condition or results of operations and damage our reputation. |
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Our business is subject to various international laws and regulations that could lead to enforcement actions, fines, civil or criminal penalties or the assertion of litigation claims and damages. In addition, improper conduct by our employees or agents could damage our reputation and lead to litigation or legal proceedings that could result in significant awards or settlements to plaintiffs and civil or criminal penalties, including substantial monetary fines. Such events could lead to an adverse impact on our financial condition or results of operations, if not mitigated by our insurance coverage.
As a result of any ship or other incidents, litigation claims, enforcement actions and regulatory actions and investigations, including, but not limited to, those arising from personal injury, loss of life, loss of or damage to personal property, business interruption losses or environmental damage to any affected coastal waters and the surrounding area, may be asserted or brought against various parties including us and/or our cruise brands. The time and attention of our management may also be diverted in defending such claims, actions and investigations. We may also incur costs both in defending against any claims, actions and investigations and for any judgments, fines, civil or criminal penalties if such claims, actions or investigations are adversely determined and not covered by our insurance policies.
| • | We are subject to many economic, market and political factors that are beyond our control, which could increase our operating, financing and other costs and could harm future sales and profitability. |
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Some of our operating costs including, but not limited to, food, payroll, port costs, repairs and maintenance, security and other commodity-based items are subject to increases because of market forces, economic or political instability or other circumstances beyond our control. In addition, interest rates, currency exchange rate fluctuations and our ability to obtain debt or equity financing are dependent on many economic, market and political factors. Increases in operating or financing costs could adversely affect our results because we may not be able to recover these increased costs through price increases charged to our guests and such increases may adversely impact our liquidity and credit ratings.
It is possible that jurisdictions or ports-of-call that we regularly visit may also decide to assess new taxes or fees or change existing taxes or fees specifically targeted to the cruise industry, its employees and guests, including, but not limited to, value added taxes on cruise tickets and onboard revenues and changes in the scope of income that is includable within tonnage tax regimes, which could increase our operating costs and could decrease the demand for cruises and ultimately decrease our net revenue yields and net income.
| • | Changes in and compliance with environmental laws and regulations could adversely affect our operations and thus impact our profitability. |
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Some environmental groups have lobbied for more stringent regulation of cruise ships. Some groups have also generated negative publicity about the cruise business and its environmental impact. Various agencies and regulatory organizations have enacted or are considering new regulations or policies, such as stricter emission limits to reduce GHG effects, which could adversely impact the cruise industry.
The IMO has amended the MARPOL regulations to reduce emissions from ships. As described in “Maritime Environmental Regulations” as referenced below, these changes will result in reductions in ship SOx emissions by requiring progressive reductions in the sulfur content in fuel or the use of abatement technologies. These limits will be further reduced in designated ECAs, including ECAs that have been or could be proposed in other prime cruising areas, such as around Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, the Mediterranean Sea and Mexico. As a result of these amendments, we have elected to install scrubbers on most of our ships, which we believe will enable our SOx emissions to meet the MARPOL current and probable future requirements without the use of low sulfur fuel, in all material respects. However, if this type of technology is not widely used within the shipping industry it is possible that there could be limited availability of high sulfur fuels because of low demand and the cost of such fuel may increase. The increase in fuel prices caused by these regulations may impact our other expenses including, but not limited to, freight and commodity prices and may have an adverse impact on our profitability.
In 2012, initiatives to limit GHG emissions were introduced in Australia and are being considered in several European countries. Similarly, numerous bills related to climate change have been introduced in the U.S. Congress, which could adversely impact our business. For example, while not all are likely to become law, there are indications that additional climate change related mandates could be forthcoming, and they may significantly impact our costs, including, among other things, increasing fuel prices, including new taxes on bunker fuel, establishment of costly emissions trading schemes and increasing newbuild and operational costs.
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Environmental laws and regulations or liabilities arising from past or future releases of, or exposure to, hazardous substances or vessel discharges, including ballast water and waste disposal, could materially increase our cost of compliance or otherwise adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial condition. See Part I, Item 1. Business. B. “Cruise Business-Governmental Regulations—Maritime Regulations” for additional information regarding these risks.
| • | Changes in and compliance with laws and regulations relating to the protection of persons with disabilities, employment, health, safety, security and other regulations under which we operate could increase our costs. |
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We are subject to various international, national, state and local laws, regulations, treaties and employee union agreements related to, among other things, persons with disabilities, employment, health, safety and security. Failure to comply with these laws and regulations could lead to enforcement actions, fines, civil or criminal penalties or the assertion of litigation claims and damages. These issues are, and we believe will continue to be, an area of focus by the relevant authorities throughout the world. Accordingly, new legislation, regulations or treaties, or changes thereto, could impact our operations and would likely subject us to increased compliance costs in the future. In addition, training of crew may become more time consuming and may increase our operating costs due to increasing regulatory and other requirements.
| • | Changes in and compliance with income tax laws and regulations and income tax treaties may adversely affect the taxation of our shipping income and our profitability. |
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We believe that substantially all of the income earned by Carnival Corporation, Carnival plc and their ship owning or operating subsidiaries qualifies for taxation based on ship tonnage and are exempt from taxation or are otherwise subject to minimal taxes in the jurisdictions where the entities are incorporated or do business.
We believe that Panama and the jurisdictions where the ship owning and operating subsidiaries of Carnival Corporation are formed are equivalent exemption jurisdictions for purposes of Section 883 of the Internal Revenue Code. The laws of Panama and the other jurisdictions where our ships are owned or operated are subject to change and, in the future, may no longer qualify as equivalent exemption jurisdictions.
The IRS interpretation of Section 883 could differ materially from ours. In addition, provisions of the Internal Revenue Code, including Section 883, are subject to legislative change at any time. Moreover, changes could occur in the future with respect to the trading volume or trading frequency of Carnival Corporation shares. Accordingly, it is possible that Carnival Corporation and its ship-owning or operating subsidiaries whose tax exemption is based on Section 883 could lose this exemption.
There is no authority that directly addresses the effect, if any, of a DLC arrangement on the availability of benefits under treaties and, accordingly, their application to our operations is not free from doubt. The applicable treaties may be revoked by either applicable country, replaced or modified with new agreements that treat income from international operation of ships differently than the agreements currently in force or may be interpreted by one of its countries differently from us.
If we did not qualify for tonnage tax, exemption, treaties or minimal taxes, or if the laws that provide for these tax systems were changed, we would have significantly higher income tax expense. In many jurisdictions, the benefit of tonnage tax or preferential tax regimes would be replaced with taxation at normal statutory rates. In the absence of Section 883 or an applicable income tax treaty in the U.S., we would be subject to the net income and branch profits tax regimes of Section 882 and Section 884 of the Internal Revenue Code. In combination, these provisions would result in the taxation of our U.S. source shipping income, net of applicable deductions, at a current federal corporate income tax rate of up to 35%, state income tax rates would vary and our net after-tax income would be potentially subject to a further branch profits tax of 30%.
We are subject to the continual examination of our income tax returns by tax authorities in the jurisdictions where we operate. We regularly assess the likelihood of adverse outcomes resulting from these examinations to determine the adequacy of our provision for income taxes. There can be no assurance that the outcome from these examinations will not adversely affect our net income.
As budgetary constraints continue to adversely impact the jurisdictions in which we operate, or for other reasons, increases in income tax regulations affecting our operations may be imposed. We continue to monitor global administrative, legislative and judicial tax related developments and evaluate a variety of possible courses of action based upon such developments. However, there is no assurance that such actions, if taken, will successfully mitigate adverse income tax consequences.
| • | Our inability to implement our shipbuilding programs and ship repairs, maintenance and refurbishments on terms that are favorable or consistent with our expectations could reduce our profitability. In addition, we expect increases to our repairs and maintenance expenses and refurbishment costs as our fleet ages. |
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The construction, repair, maintenance and refurbishment of cruise ships are complex processes and involve risks similar to those encountered in other large and sophisticated construction, repair, maintenance and refurbishment projects. We could experience delays and cost overruns in completing such work. As our fleet ages, our repair and maintenance expenses will increase, such as the required 25 year survey that is more exhaustive, and thus may require additional repair and maintenance work to be performed. In addition, other events, such as work stoppages, other labor actions,
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insolvencies, “force majeure” events or other financial difficulties experienced at the shipyards and their subcontractors and suppliers who build, repair, maintain or refurbish our ships could also delay or prevent the delivery of our ships under construction and prevent or delay the completion of the refurbishment, repair and maintenance of existing ships in our fleet. These events could adversely affect our profitability, including delays or cancellations of cruises or unscheduled dry-docks and repairs. However, the impact from a delay in delivery of our newbuilds is expected to be partially mitigated by contractual provisions and bank guarantees that we require shipyards to provide to us. In addition, the consolidation of the control of certain cruise shipyards or cruise shipyard voluntary capacity reductions or insolvencies could result in less shipyard availability thus reducing competition and increasing prices. Finally, the lack of qualified shipyard repair facilities could result in the inability to repair and maintain our ships on a timely basis, which could also result in reduced profitability. We partially own GBSL, the largest cruise ship repair facility in the world, which helps mitigate a portion of this risk.
As of November 30, 2013, we had entered into foreign currency zero cost collars for a portion of the cost in U.S. dollars and sterling of two of our euro-denominated shipbuilding contracts. However, if the shipyard with which we have contracted is unable to perform under the related contracts, the foreign currency zero cost collars related to the shipyard’s shipbuilding contract payments would still have to be honored. This might require us to realize a loss on existing foreign currency zero cost collars without an offsetting gain on our foreign currency denominated shipbuilding contract payments, thus resulting in an adverse effect on our financial results.
The cost of shipbuilding orders that we may place in the future that is denominated in a different currency than our cruise brands’ or the shipyards’ functional currency is expected to be affected by foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations. These foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations may affect our desire to order new cruise ships. In addition, the prices of various commodities that are used in the construction of ships, such as steel, can be subject to volatile price changes and, accordingly, the cost of future newbuilds may increase, which could have an adverse impact on our profitability.
In connection with our shipbuilding contracts, we do not anticipate any contractual breakage or cancellations on our part. However, if any were to occur, it could result in, among other things, the forfeiture of our payments and the imposition of contractual liquidated damages.
| • | Lack of continuing availability of attractive, convenient and safe port destinations on terms that are favorable or consistent with our expectations could adversely affect our net revenue yields and net income. |
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We believe that attractive, convenient and safe port destinations, including ports that are not overly congested with tourists, are major reasons why our guests choose a cruise versus an alternative vacation option. The continuing availability of these types of ports on terms that are favorable or consistent with our expectations, including the port facilities where our guests embark and disembark, is affected by a number of factors including, but not limited to, existing capacity constraints (particularly during the Caribbean winter months and Mediterranean summer months), security, safety and environmental concerns, adverse weather conditions and other natural disasters, financial limitations on port development, political instability, exclusivity arrangements that ports may have with our competitors, port operator consolidation, local governmental regulations, such as those recently enacted that will limit cruise ship operations in the highly popular port of Venice, Italy and fees and local community concerns about both port development and other adverse impacts on their communities from additional tourists. In order to mitigate this risk, among other things, we work with port authorities and others to educate them on the benefits derived from cruising as well as taking actions to address their concerns, if appropriate. The inability to continue to utilize, maintain, rebuild, if necessary, and increase the number of ports that our ships call on could adversely affect our net revenue yields and net income.
| • | Continuing financial viability of our travel agent distribution system, air service providers and other key vendors in our supply chain is essential to allowing us to profitably operate our business. In addition, reductions in the availability of, and increases in the prices for, the services and products provided by these vendors can adversely impact our net income. |
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Primarily all of our guests book their cruises through independent travel agents, including wholesalers, general sales agents and tour operators. These parties generally sell and market our cruises on a nonexclusive basis. Our competitors may offer higher commissions and incentives and thus adversely impact our business. Significant disruptions, contractions or consolidations to our travel agent distribution system, such as those caused by a reduction in travel and related commission income as a result of an economic slowdown could have an adverse effect on our sales and profitability. In addition, we currently extend credit to certain of our larger European travel agents and tour operators and, accordingly, if such agents and operators cannot repay their debts to us, it will adversely impact our cash flows and operations. However, we have entered into agreements with certain of our larger European travel agents and tour operators to mitigate this risk.
Many of our guests and substantially all our crew depend on scheduled or chartered commercial airline services to transport them to or from the airports near the ports where our cruises embark and disembark. Changes or disruptions in commercial or chartered airline services as a result of strikes, labor unrest, financial instability or viability, adverse weather conditions, airport delays, consolidation of carriers, or other events or the lack of availability due to schedule changes or a high level of airline bookings could adversely affect our ability to deliver guests and crew to or from our cruise ships and increase our costs which would, in turn, have an adverse effect on our results of operations. In addition, increases in the prices of airfares due to, among other things, rising fuel prices and airline consolidations would increase the overall vacation price to our guests and may adversely affect demand for our cruises, as well as increase our airfare for our crew.
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Travel agents may face increased pressure from our competitors, particularly in the North America market, to sell and market these competitor cruises exclusively. If such exclusive arrangements were introduced, there can be no assurance that we will be able to find alternative distribution channels to ensure our customer base would not be affected.
Economic downturns may impact the financial viability of other key vendors in our supply chain and the interruption in the services or goods we purchase from them could adversely impact our operations and profitability.
| • | Disruptions and other damages to our information technology and other networks and operations, and breaches in data security could result in decreases in our net income. |
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Our ability to increase revenues and control costs, as well as our ability to serve guests most effectively depends in part on the reliability of our sophisticated technologies and system networks. We use communications, information technology and other systems to manage our inventory of cabins held for sale and set pricing in order to maximize our revenue yields and to optimize the effectiveness and efficiency of our shoreside and shipboard operations. Gaining unauthorized access to digital systems for purposes of misappropriating assets or sensitive information, corrupting data, causing operational disruptions and other cyber-related risks could adversely impact our guest services and satisfaction, employee relationships, business plans and our reputation. In addition, the operation and maintenance of these systems is in some cases dependent on third-party technologies and service providers for which there is no certainty of uninterrupted availability. While we have and continue to invest in technologies and other security initiatives and disaster recovery plans to mitigate these risks, these measures cannot completely insulate us from disruptions that could result in adverse effects on our operations and decreases in our net income. These potential disruptions and cyber attacks could negatively affect costs, customer demand and pricing for our cruises.
Our Corporate and cruise brands’ principal offices are located in Australia, Germany, Italy, the UK and the U.S. Although we have developed disaster recovery and similar contingency plans, actual or threatened natural disasters (for example, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, fires, tornados, tsunamis, typhoons and volcanic eruptions) or similar events in these locations may have a material impact on our business continuity, reputation and results of operations.
| • | A failure to keep pace with developments in technology could impair our operations or competitive position. |
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Our business continues to demand the use of sophisticated systems and technology. These systems and technologies may require refinement, updating and replacement with more advanced systems in the future. If we are unable to do so on a timely basis or within reasonable cost parameters, our business could suffer. We also may not achieve the benefits that we anticipate from any new system or technology, and a failure to do so could result in materially higher than anticipated costs and could materially impair our operating results.
| • | We may lose business to competitors throughout the wider vacation industry, which could adversely affect our operations and financial condition. |
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We face significant competition from other cruise brands on the basis of cruise pricing, travel agent preference and the types and sizes of ships and cabins, services and destinations being offered by them to cruise guests. We try to differentiate ourselves from our cruise competitors by offering a wide variety of brands, itineraries, products and services to our guests, but the acceptance of each offering is not certain and consumers’ preferences are always subject to change. It is possible that our programs to motivate previous guests to cruise with us again may not be successful and they may elect not to cruise with us again. In addition, we may choose to enhance our older ships with innovative amenities and improvements in order for those ships to be more competitive with other cruise ships. Alternatively, without these investments these older ships may become less competitive, which could result in lower profitability and ship impairment charges. The used cruise ship market is small. Accordingly, if we need to dispose of a ship, we cannot be assured of finding a viable buyer to purchase it at a price that meets our expectations, which could result in ship impairment charges and losses on ship disposals.
In addition, we operate in the wider vacation industry and cruising is only one of many alternatives for people choosing a vacation. We therefore risk losing business not only to other cruise lines, but also to vacation operators that provide other travel and leisure options, including, but not limited to, hotels, resorts, theme parks, packaged holidays and tours, casino operators and vacation ownership properties.
In the event that we do not compete effectively with other cruise companies and other vacation alternatives, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected.
| • | Overcapacity in the cruise ship and land-based vacation industry could have a negative impact on our net revenue yields and increase operating costs. As a result, we may experience ship, goodwill and trademark asset impairments, which could adversely affect profitability. |
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Although cruising capacity has grown at a slower pace in recent years, we expect it to continue to increase over the next few years. The wider vacation industry may also face increases in land-based vacation capacity, which may impact us as well. We typically aim to fill our new capacity at favorable revenue yields despite the new competing cruise and land-based capacity growth. Also, to the extent that we or our competitors deploy ships to a particular itinerary and the resulting capacity in that region exceeds the demand, we may lower pricing and
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profitability may be lower than anticipated. Should net revenue yields be negatively impacted, our results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected, including the impairment of the value of our ships, goodwill and trademark assets. In addition, increased cruise capacity could impact our ability to retain and attract qualified crew, including officers, at competitive rates and, therefore, increase our shipboard employee costs. To partially mitigate this risk, we strategically time the introduction of new ships into our brands to allow ample time to further grow their guest base and absorb our new capacity.
| • | The loss of key personnel or our ability to recruit or retain qualified personnel could adversely affect our results of operations. |
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We rely upon the ability, expertise, judgment, discretion, integrity and good faith of our senior management team. Our success is also dependent upon our personnel and our ability to recruit and train high quality employees. We must continue to recruit, retain and motivate management and other employees to enable us to maintain our current business and support our projected growth. The loss of services of any of our key management could have a material adverse effect on our business. We are not protected by life insurance covering any of our personnel. We do not have employment agreements with our officers, except for our President and Chief Executive Officer and the Chief Executive Officer of Costa.
| • | Union disputes and other employee relation issues could adversely affect our financial results. |
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A large number of our employees are represented by labor unions in a number of countries under various collective bargaining agreements with varying durations and expiration dates. We may not be able to satisfactorily renegotiate these collective bargaining agreements when they expire. In addition, existing collective bargaining agreements may not prevent a strike or work stoppage on our ships. We may also be subject to or affected by work stoppages unrelated to our business or collective bargaining agreements. Any such work stoppages or potential work stoppages could have a material adverse effect on our financial results.
| • | The impact of disruptions in the global financial markets or other events may negatively affect the ability of our counterparties and others to perform their obligations to us and thus, adversely affect our financial position and results of operations. |
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The ability of our counterparties to perform, primarily with respect to our cash equivalents, investments, committed financing facilities, contingent obligations, derivative instruments, insurance contracts and new ship progress payment guarantees, may adversely impact us if any of their financial positions weaken materially or they suffer other financial disruptions.
For example, the last severe economic downturn, including failures of banks and financial service companies and the related liquidity crisis, disrupted the capital and credit markets. Additional economic concerns from some of the countries in the EU continue to strain the financial markets both in the U.S. and internationally. A recurrence of these disruptions could cause our counterparties and others to breach their obligations to us under our contracts with them, which may have a negative impact on our cash flows, including our ability to meet our obligations, results of operations and financial condition. As part of our ongoing control procedures, we monitor concentrations of credit risk associated with financial and other institutions with which we conduct significant business. We seek to minimize credit risk exposure by normally conducting business with large, well established financial and other institutions and by diversifying our counterparties.
| • | Our success depends upon the continued strength of our cruise brands and our ability to implement our brand strategies. |
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We believe that our cruise branding has contributed significantly to the success of our business and that restoring, maintaining and enhancing our branding is critical to expanding our brands’ customer bases. Our inability to restore consumers’ confidence in our Carnival Cruise Lines or Costa brands would have an adverse impact on our long-term profitability. In addition, the ability of our brands to successfully target different segments of the vacation markets in which they operate enables them to strengthen their business. Failure to protect our brands from infringers could have a material adverse effect on our business and results of operations.
| • | Our international operations are subject to additional risks not generally applicable to our U.S. operations and may result in increased costs and adversely affect our financial position and results of operations. |
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Our international operations are subject to additional risks including, but not limited to, adverse changes in foreign countries’ political systems, social unrest, restrictions and taxes on the withdrawal of foreign investment and earnings and other payments by subsidiaries, government policies against the vacation or maritime industries, local cabotage requirements, anti-bribery laws or regulations, investment restrictions or requirements, diminished ability to legally enforce our intellectual property and contractual rights in foreign countries and commercial instability caused by corruption. In addition, our international operations may also be subject to adverse changes in foreign exchange restrictions, and changes in or application of foreign taxation structures including duties and value-added taxes. Also, if a significant country leaves the euro currency system it is possible that this could have a significant impact on our operations. If we are unable to address these risks adequately, our financial position and results of operations could be adversely affected.
Operating internationally also exposes us to numerous and sometimes conflicting legal and regulatory requirements. In many parts of the world, including countries in which we operate, practices in the local business communities might not conform to international business standards. We may not be successful in ensuring that our employees and other representatives stationed throughout the world properly adhere to our policies or applicable laws or regulations. Failure to adhere to our policies or applicable laws or regulations could result in penalties, sanctions, damage to our reputation and related costs, which in turn could negatively affect our results of operations and cash flows.
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| • | Geographic regions in which we try to expand our business may be slow to develop and ultimately not develop how we expect, thus resulting in the slower growth of our business. |
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As we expand our global presence it requires, among other things, significant levels of investments. We may not recover our investments in these markets, and we cannot be certain that these markets will ultimately develop as we expect. Accordingly, our business expansion may not produce the returns that we had expected, which could adversely impact the growth of our business. In order to partially mitigate this risk before we expand our presence in a new region, we, among other things, research and analyze the region’s characteristics and other attributes in order to determine if such an expansion is reasonable without taking undue risks.
| • | Our decisions to self-insure against various risks or the inability to obtain insurance for certain risks at reasonable rates could result in higher expenses or lower revenues. |
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We seek to maintain comprehensive insurance coverage at commercially reasonable rates. We believe that our current coverage is adequate to protect us against most of the significant risks involved in the conduct of our business, although we do elect to self-insure or use higher deductibles for substantially all the insurable risks we face in order to minimize the cost of our insurance policies. Accordingly, we are not protected against all risks, such as loss of use of a ship, which could result in an unexpected decrease in our revenue in the event of an incident. We attempt to mitigate our risks that are not covered by insurance, although we cannot be certain such processes and procedures will be successful. Further, significant incidents could result in higher insurance premiums commencing on the policy renewal dates or the inability to obtain coverage.
We may also be subject to additional premium costs based not only on our own claims record but also on the claims records of all other members of the P&I associations through which we receive indemnity coverage for tort liability. We are also subject to additional P&I premium assessments for various reasons including, but not limited to, investment or underwriting shortfalls experienced by our P&I clubs. In addition, if we or other ship-owners sustain significant losses, our ability to obtain future insurance coverage at commercially reasonable rates could be materially adversely affected.
Finally, we cannot be certain that affordable and viable direct insurance and reinsurance markets will be available to us in the future.
| • | Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates could adversely affect our financial results. |
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We earn revenues, pay expenses, purchase and own assets and incur liabilities in currencies other than the U.S. dollar; most significantly, the euro, sterling and Australian and Canadian dollars. We derived 56%, 54% and 56% of our revenues from passengers sourced from countries outside of the U.S. in 2013, 2012 and 2011, respectively. Because our consolidated financial statements are presented in U.S. dollars, we must translate revenues and expenses, as well as assets and liabilities, into U.S. dollars at exchange rates in effect during or at the end of each reporting period. We report currency transactions in the functional currencies of our reporting units, excluding fuel which is always transacted and reported in U.S. dollars regardless of the functional currency of the reporting unit. Furthermore, we convert significant amount of these currencies into U.S. dollar. Therefore, the strengthening of the U.S. dollar against our other major currencies, will adversely affect our U.S. dollar financial results and will reduce the U.S. dollar amount received upon conversion of these currencies into U.S. dollars. We partially mitigate some of our newbuild currency exchange rate risk by purchasing currency derivative instruments.
| • | Whether our future operating cash flow will be sufficient to fund future obligations and whether we will be able to obtain financing, if necessary, in sufficient amounts and on terms that are favorable or consistent with our expectations may adversely impact our financial results. |
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Our forecasted cash flows from future operations may be adversely affected by various factors, including, but not limited to, declines in guest demand and consumer confidence; a weakening economy; increases in fuel prices; ship incidents; negative publicity; terrorist and pirate attacks and the threats thereof; the impact of the spread of contagious diseases such as influenza virus; increased competition; overcapacity; adverse currency movements and other factors noted under these “Risk Factors.” To the extent that we are required, or choose, to fund future cash requirements, including current and future shipbuilding commitments and debt repayments, from sources other than cash flow from operations, available cash and committed external sources of liquidity, including committed ship and other financings, we will have to secure such financing from export credit agencies or banks or through the offering of debt and equity securities in the public or private markets. There is no guarantee that such financings will be available in the future to fund our future obligations, or that they will be available on terms consistent with our expectations.
Our access to and the cost of financing will depend on, among other things, conditions in the global financing markets, the availability of sufficient amounts of financing and the maintenance of our investment grade long-term senior unsecured credit ratings. If our long-term senior unsecured credit ratings were to be downgraded or assigned a negative outlook, our access to and cost of debt financing may be negatively impacted. Further, the terms of future debt agreements could include more restrictive covenants, which may restrict our business operations.
Our ability to maintain our credit facilities may also be impacted by material changes in our ownership. More specifically, we may be required to prepay our debt facilities if a person or group of persons acting in concert gain control of Carnival Corporation & plc, other than the Arison family, including Micky Arison, our Chairman of the Boards of Directors.
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| • | The DLC arrangement involves risks not associated with the more common ways of combining the operations of two companies and these risks may have an adverse effect on the economic performance of the companies and their respective share prices. |
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The DLC arrangement is a relatively uncommon way of combining the management and operations of two companies and it involves different issues and risks from those associated with the other more common ways of impacting a business combination, such as a merger or exchange offer to create a wholly owned subsidiary. In our DLC arrangement, the combination is effected primarily by means of contracts between Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc and not by operation of a statute or court order. The legal effect of these contractual rights may be different from the legal effect of a merger or amalgamation under statute or court order, and there may be difficulties in enforcing these contractual rights. Shareholders and creditors of either company might challenge the validity of the contracts or their lack of standing to enforce rights under these contracts, and courts may interpret or enforce these contracts in a manner inconsistent with the express provisions and intentions we included in such contracts. In addition, shareholders and creditors of other companies might successfully challenge other DLC arrangements and establish legal precedents that could increase the risk of a successful challenge to our DLC arrangement.
| • | Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc are not U.S. corporations, and our shareholders may be subject to the uncertainties of a foreign legal system in protecting their interests. |
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Carnival Corporation’s corporate affairs are governed by its Third Amended and Restated Articles of Incorporation (“Articles”) and Third Amended and Restated By-Laws (“By-Laws”) and by the laws of Panama. Carnival plc is governed by its Articles of Association and by the laws of England and Wales. The contracts that control the relationship between Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc under the DLC arrangement are governed by the laws of Panama, the Isle of Man and the Cayman Islands. The laws of Panama, England and Wales, the Isle of Man and the Cayman Islands may differ in some respects from the laws in the U.S. Thus, our public shareholders may have more difficulty in protecting their interest with respect to actions by management, directors and controlling shareholders than would otherwise be the case for a U.S. shareholder in a U.S. Corporation or a UK shareholder in a UK Corporation.
| • | A small group of shareholders owns a significant portion of the total combined voting power of our outstanding shares and may be able to effectively control the outcome of shareholder voting. |
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As of January 22, 2014, a small group of shareholders consisting of some members of the Arison family, including Micky Arison, beneficially owned approximately 26% of the total combined voting power of Carnival Corporation & plc. Depending upon the nature and extent of the shareholder vote, this group of shareholders may have the power to effectively control, or at least significantly influence, the outcome of certain shareholder votes and, therefore, the corporate actions requiring such votes.
| • | Provisions in Carnival Corporation’s and Carnival plc’s constitutional documents may prevent or discourage takeovers and business combinations that our shareholders might consider to be in their best interests. |
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Carnival Corporation’s Articles and By-Laws and Carnival plc’s Articles of Association contain provisions that may delay, defer, prevent or render more difficult a takeover attempt that our shareholders consider to be in their best interests. As a result, these provisions may prevent our shareholders from receiving a premium to the market price of our shares offered by a bidder in a takeover context. Even in the absence of a takeover attempt, the existence of these provisions may adversely affect the prevailing market price of our shares if they are viewed as discouraging takeover attempts in the future.
Specifically, Carnival Corporation’s Articles contain provisions that prevent third parties, other than the Arison family and trusts established for their benefit, from acquiring beneficial ownership of more than 4.9% of outstanding Carnival Corporation shares without the consent of its Board of Directors and provide for the lapse of rights, and sale, of any shares acquired in excess of that limit. The effect of these provisions may preclude third parties from seeking to acquire a controlling interest in us in transactions that shareholders might consider to be in their best interests and may prevent them from receiving a premium above market price for their shares.
Cautionary Note Concerning Factors That May Affect Future Results
Some of the statements, estimates or projections contained in this Form 10-K are “forward-looking statements” that involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions with respect to us, including some statements concerning future results, outlooks, plans, goals and other events which have not yet occurred. These statements are intended to qualify for the safe harbors from liability provided by Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements other than statements of historical facts are statements that could be deemed forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections about the business in which we operate and the beliefs and assumptions of our management. We have tried, whenever possible, to identify these statements by using words like “will,” “may,” “could,” “should,” “would,” “believe,” “depends,” “expect,” “goal,” “anticipate,” “forecast,” “project,” “future,” “intend,” “plan,” “estimate,” “target,” “indicate” and similar expressions of future intent or the negative of such terms.
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Forward-looking statements include those statements that may impact, among other things, the forecasting of our non-GAAP earnings per share; net revenue yields; booking levels; pricing; occupancy; operating, financing and tax costs, including fuel expenses; net cruise costs per available lower berth day; estimates of ship depreciable lives and residual values; liquidity; goodwill and trademark fair values and outlook.
Certain of the risks we are exposed to are identified in this Item 1A. “Risk Factors.” This item contains important cautionary statements and a discussion of the known factors that we consider could materially affect the accuracy of our forward-looking statements and adversely affect our business, results of operations and financial position. It is not possible to predict or identify all such risks. There may be additional risks that we consider immaterial or which are not known.
Forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as a prediction of actual results. Subject to any continuing obligations under applicable law or any relevant stock exchange rules, we expressly disclaim any obligation to disseminate, after the date of this Form 10-K, any updates or revisions to any such forward-looking statements to reflect any change in expectations or events, conditions or circumstances on which any such statements are based.
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