Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
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Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Introduction
Market risk is the potential for a decrease in securities value resulting from broad yet uncontrollable forces such as inflation, economic growth, interest rates, world political conditions or other widespread unpredictable events. It is comprised of many individual risk categories that, when combined, create a macroeconomic impact. These risk categories include political, regulatory, economic and interest-rate risks. Company-specific risk is the potential for a particular issuer to experience a decline in value due to the impact of sector or market risk on the holding or because of issues specific to the firm. These risk categories include fraud, credit and default risks. The company accepts and manages risks in its investment portfolio as part of the means of achieving portfolio objectives.
The investment committee of the board of directors monitors the investment risk management process primarily through its executive oversight of our investment activities. We take an active approach to managing market and other investment risks, including the accountabilities and controls over these activities. Actively managing these market risks is integral to our operations and could require us to change the character of future investments purchased or sold or require us to shift the existing asset portfolios to manage exposure to market risk within acceptable ranges.
Sector risk is the potential for a negative impact on a particular industry due to its sensitivity to factors that make up market risk. Market risk affects general supply or demand factors for an industry and affects companies within that industry to varying degrees.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2025 10-K - Page 109
Fixed-Maturity Securities Investments
For both taxable and tax-exempt fixed-maturity securities, the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices leads to falling bond values during periods of increasing interest rates. We address this risk by attempting to construct a generally laddered maturity schedule that allows us to reinvest cash flows at prevailing rates. Although the potential for a worsening financial condition, and ultimately default, does exist with investment-grade corporate bonds, we address this risk by performing credit analysis and monitoring as well as maintaining a diverse portfolio of holdings.
As discussed in Item 1, Our Segments, Investments Segment, investment-grade fixed-maturity securities represented 97.5% of the portfolio. Further, of our $14.010 billion taxable fixed-maturity portfolio, $9.505 billion were investment-grade corporate securities with only $307 million being noninvestment-grade. For these noninvestment-grade holdings, the primary risk is credit risk. A weak financial profile can lead to rating downgrades from the credit rating agencies, which can put further downward pressure on bond prices. This puts more emphasis on the financial results achieved by the issuer rather than on general economic trends or statistics within the marketplace. We address this concern by analyzing issuer- and industry-specific financial results and by closely monitoring holdings within this asset class.
In addition to interest rate risk, the primary risk related to tax-exempt bonds is political risk associated with the specific environment within the boundaries of the issuing municipal entity. We address this concern by focusing on municipalities’ general-obligation debt and on essential-service bonds. Essential-service bonds derive a revenue stream from municipal services that are vital to the people living in the area (water service, sewer service, etc.). Another risk related to tax-exempt bonds is regulatory risk or the potential for legislative changes that would negate the benefit of owning tax-exempt bonds. We monitor regulatory activity for situations that may negatively affect current holdings and our ongoing strategy for investing in these securities.
A less significant risk is our exposure to credit risk for a portion of the tax-exempt portfolio that has support from corporate entities. Examples are bonds insured by corporate bond insurers or bonds with interest payments made by a corporate entity through a municipal conduit or authority. Our decisions regarding these investments primarily consider the underlying municipal situation. The existence of third-party insurance is intended to reduce risk in the event of default. In circumstances in which the municipality is unable to meet its obligations, risk would be increased if the insuring entity were experiencing financial duress. Because of our diverse exposure and selection of higher-rated entities with strong financial profiles, we do not believe this is a material concern as we discuss in Item 1, Our Segments, Investments Segment.
Interest Rate Sensitivity Analysis
Because of our strong shareholders’ equity, long-term investment horizon and ability to hold most fixed-maturity investments to maturity, we believe the company is well-positioned if interest rates were to rise. A higher rate environment would provide the opportunity to invest cash flow in higher-yielding securities, while reducing the likelihood of untimely redemptions of currently callable securities. While higher interest rates would be expected to increase the number of fixed-maturity holdings fair valued below 100% of amortized cost, we believe lower fixed-maturity security values due solely to interest rate changes would not signal a decline in credit quality.
Our dynamic financial planning model uses analytical tools to assess market risks. As part of this model, the effective duration of the fixed-maturity portfolio is continually monitored by our investment department to evaluate the theoretical impact of interest rate movements.
The table below summarizes the effect of an instantaneous hypothetical change in interest rates on the fair value of our fixed-maturity portfolio.
| (Dollars in millions) | Effect from interest rate change in basis points | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| -200 | -100 | — | 100 | 200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2025 | $ | 20,177 | $ | 19,142 | $ | 18,123 | $ | 17,008 | $ | 15,891 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2024 | $ | 17,750 | $ | 16,967 | $ | 16,182 | $ | 15,317 | $ | 14,433 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2025 10-K - Page 110
The effective duration of the fixed-maturity portfolio was 5.6 years at year-end 2025, up from 5.0 years at year-end 2024. A 100-basis-point movement in interest rates would result in an approximately 5.9% change in the fair value of the fixed-maturity portfolio. Generally speaking, the higher a bond is rated, the more directly correlated movements in its fair value are to changes in the general level of interest rates, exclusive of call features. The fair values of average- to lower-rated corporate bonds are additionally influenced by the expansion or contraction of credit spreads.
In the dynamic financial planning model, the selected interest rate change of 100 to 200 basis points represents our views of a shift in rates that is quite possible over a one-year period. The rates modeled should not be considered a prediction of future events as interest rates may be much more volatile in the future. The analysis is not intended to provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in rates on our results or financial condition, nor does it take into account any actions that we might take to reduce exposure to such risks.
Short-Term Investments
Our short-term investments consist of commercial paper purchased within one year of maturity. We make short-term investments primarily with funds to be used to make upcoming cash payments, such as dividends, taxes or other corporate purposes. At year-end 2025, we had $148 million of short-term investments compared with $298 million at year-end 2024.
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Equity Securities Investments
Our equity portfolio is subject to a variety of risk factors encompassed under the umbrella of market risk. General economic swings influence the performance of the underlying industries and companies within those industries. Industry- and company-specific risks also have the potential to substantially affect the value of our portfolio. Our investment guidelines help address these risks by diversifying the portfolio and establishing parameters to help manage exposures.
The table below summarizes the effect of hypothetical changes in market prices on the fair value of our equity portfolio.
| (Dollars in millions) | Effect from market price change in percent | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| -30% | -20% | -10% | — | 10% | 20% | 30% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2025 | $ | 8,886 | $ | 10,155 | $ | 11,425 | $ | 12,694 | $ | 13,963 | $ | 15,233 | $ | 16,502 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2024 | $ | 7,830 | $ | 8,948 | $ | 10,067 | $ | 11,185 | $ | 12,304 | $ | 13,422 | $ | 14,541 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Our equity holdings represented $12.694 billion in fair value at year-end 2025. No holding had a fair value greater than 7.8% of our $12.373 billion common stock portfolio. We had 44 holdings (among nine different sectors) each with a fair value greater than $100 million. See Item 1, Our Segments, Investments Segment and Item 8, Note 2 of the Consolidated Financial Statements, for additional details on our holdings.
The primary risks related to preferred stocks are similar to those related to investment-grade corporate bonds. Rising interest rates adversely affect market values due to the normal inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. Credit risk exists due to the subordinate position of preferred stocks in the capital structure. We minimize this risk by primarily purchasing investment-grade preferred stocks of issuers with a strong history of paying a common stock dividend.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation - 2025 10-K - Page 112
Application of Asset Impairment Policy
As discussed in Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Asset Impairment, our fixed-maturity investment portfolio is evaluated for credit-related impairments. The company’s asset impairment committee monitors a number of significant factors for indications of investments with a fair value below the carrying amount that may not be recoverable. During 2025 and 2024, no fixed maturity securities were written down to fair value, due to an intention to be sold. The application of our impairment policy resulted in write-downs of impaired securities intended to be sold that reduced our income before income taxes by $4 million in 2023. Impairments are discussed in Item 7, Investments Results.
We expect the number of fixed-maturity and short-term securities with a fair value below 100% of amortized cost to fluctuate as interest rates rise or fall and credit spreads expand or contract due to prevailing economic conditions. Further, amortized cost for some securities have been revised due to impairment charges recognized in prior periods. At year-end 2025, 2,597 of the 5,358 fixed-maturity and short-term securities we owned had a fair value below 100% of amortized cost compared with 3,723 of the 5,090 at year-end 2024 and 2,840 of the 4,738 at year-end 2023.
The 2,597 holdings fair valued below amortized cost at year-end 2025 represented 43.1% of our fixed-maturity and short-term investments portfolio and $397 million in unrealized losses.
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1,974 of these holdings were fair valued between 90% and 100% of amortized cost. The value of these securities fluctuates primarily because of changes in interest rates. The fair value of these 1,974 securities was $6.734 billion at year-end 2025, and they accounted for $144 million in unrealized losses.
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610 of these holdings were fair valued between 70% and 90% of amortized cost. The fair value of these holdings was $1.126 billion, and they accounted for $240 million in unrealized losses.
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13 of these holdings had a fair value below 70% of amortized cost. The fair value of these holdings was $17 million, and they accounted for $13 million in unrealized losses.
The following table summarizes the length of time securities in the investment portfolio have been in a continuous unrealized loss position.
| (Dollars in millions) | Less than 12 months | 12 months or more | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2025 | Fair value | Unrealized losses | Fair value | Unrealized losses | Fair value | Unrealized losses | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed-maturity: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Corporate | $ | 849 | $ | 15 | $ | 2,926 | $ | 188 | $ | 3,775 | $ | 203 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| States, municipalities and political subdivisions | 204 | 2 | 2,346 | 179 | 2,550 | 181 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Government-sponsored enterprises | 983 | 3 | 195 | 1 | 1,178 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Asset-backed | 101 | 2 | 184 | 6 | 285 | 8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United States government | 69 | — | 20 | 1 | 89 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total fixed-maturity | $ | 2,206 | $ | 22 | $ | 5,671 | $ | 375 | $ | 7,877 | $ | 397 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed-maturity: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Corporate | $ | 2,815 | $ | 78 | $ | 3,634 | $ | 255 | $ | 6,449 | $ | 333 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| States, municipalities and political subdivisions | 1,513 | 25 | 1,898 | 245 | 3,411 | 270 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Government-sponsored enterprises | 1,876 | 8 | 92 | 1 | 1,968 | 9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Asset-backed | 331 | 10 | 96 | 7 | 427 | 17 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United States government | 48 | — | 100 | 2 | 148 | 2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Foreign government | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total fixed-maturity | 6,583 | 121 | 5,823 | 510 | 12,406 | 631 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short-term | 100 | — | — | — | 100 | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total fixed-maturity and short-term investments | $ | 6,683 | $ | 121 | $ | 5,823 | $ | 510 | $ | 12,506 | $ | 631 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The following table summarizes and classifies securities based on fair values relative to amortized cost:
| (Dollars in millions) | Number of issues | Amortized cost | Fair value | Gross unrealized gain (loss) | Gross investment income | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Taxable fixed maturities: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost | 6 | $ | 20 | $ | 12 | $ | (8) | $ | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost | 1,358 | 6,266 | 5,965 | (301) | 249 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost | 1,379 | 7,848 | 8,033 | 185 | 366 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income on securities sold in current year | — | — | — | — | 109 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,743 | 14,134 | 14,010 | (124) | 725 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tax-exempt fixed maturities: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost | 7 | 10 | 5 | (5) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost | 1,226 | 1,978 | 1,895 | (83) | 62 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost | 1,379 | 2,182 | 2,213 | 31 | 74 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income on securities sold in current year | — | — | — | — | 8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,612 | 4,170 | 4,113 | (57) | 144 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed-maturities summary: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost | 13 | 30 | 17 | (13) | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost | 2,584 | 8,244 | 7,860 | (384) | 311 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost | 2,758 | 10,030 | 10,246 | 216 | 440 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income on securities sold in current year | — | — | — | — | 117 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 5,355 | 18,304 | 18,123 | (181) | 869 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short-term investments: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued below 70% of cost | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of cost | — | — | — | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 100% and above of cost | 3 | 148 | 148 | — | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income on securities sold in current year | — | — | — | — | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 3 | 148 | 148 | — | 9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturities and short-term investments summary: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued below 70% of cost | 13 | 30 | 17 | (13) | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of cost | 2,584 | 8,244 | 7,860 | (384) | 311 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 100% and above of cost | 2,761 | 10,178 | 10,394 | 216 | 440 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income on securities sold in current year | — | — | — | — | 126 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 5,358 | $ | 18,452 | $ | 18,271 | $ | (181) | $ | 878 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturities and short-term investments summary: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost | 19 | $ | 43 | $ | 28 | $ | (15) | $ | 2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost | 3,704 | 13,094 | 12,478 | (616) | 461 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost | 1,367 | 3,896 | 3,974 | 78 | 184 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income on securities sold in current year | — | — | — | — | 86 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 5,090 | $ | 17,033 | $ | 16,480 | $ | (553) | $ | 733 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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