Cincinnati Financial 10-Q 2024-06-30
Filed 2024-07-25. 8 sections, 368K characters. Original on sec.gov · Markdown · JSON
Cover and table of contents
UNITED STATES
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
WASHINGTON, D.C. 20549
FORM 10-Q
(Mark one)
☑ QUARTERLY REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934.
For the quarterly period ended June 30, 2024.
☐ TRANSITION REPORT PURSUANT TO SECTION 13 OR 15(d) OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934.
For the transition period from _____________________ to _____________________.
Commission file number 0-4604
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION
(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)
| Ohio | 31-0746871 | |||||||||||||||||||
| (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) | (I.R.S. Employer Identification No.) | |||||||||||||||||||
| 6200 S. Gilmore Road, | Fairfield, | Ohio | 45014-5141 | |||||||||||||||||
| (Address of principal executive offices) | (Zip code) |
Registrant's telephone number, including area code: (513) 870-2000
N/A
(Former name, former address and former fiscal year, if changed since last report)
Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:
| Title of each class | Trading Symbol(s) | Name of each exchange on which registered | ||||||||||||
| Common stock | CINF | Nasdaq Global Select Market |
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.
☑Yes ☐ No
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically every Interactive Data File required to be submitted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit such files).
☑Yes ☐ No
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a nonaccelerated filer, a smaller reporting company or an emerging growth company. See definition of "large accelerated filer," "accelerated filer," "smaller reporting company" and "emerging growth company" in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.
☑ Large accelerated filer ☐ Accelerated filer ☐ Nonaccelerated filer ☐ Smaller reporting company
☐ Emerging growth company
If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐
Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act):
☐Yes ☑ No
As of July 19, 2024, there were 156,240,158 shares of common stock outstanding.
CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES
FORM 10-Q FOR THE QUARTER ENDED June 30, 2024
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2024 10-Q
Page 2
Part I – Financial Information
Item 1. Financial Statements (unaudited)
Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
Condensed Consolidated Balance Sheets
| (Dollars in millions, except per share data) | June 30, | December 31, | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | 2023 | |||||||||||||
| Assets | ||||||||||||||
| Investments | ||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturities, at fair value (amortized cost: 2024—$15,109; 2023—$14,361) | $ | 14,409 | $ | 13,791 | ||||||||||
| Equity securities, at fair value (cost: 2024—$4,278; 2023—$4,282) | 11,634 | 10,989 | ||||||||||||
| Other invested assets | 641 | 577 | ||||||||||||
| Total investments | 26,684 | 25,357 | ||||||||||||
| Cash and cash equivalents | 771 | 907 | ||||||||||||
| Investment income receivable | 201 | 192 | ||||||||||||
| Finance receivable | 111 | 108 | ||||||||||||
| Premiums receivable | 3,091 | 2,592 | ||||||||||||
| Reinsurance recoverable | 546 | 651 | ||||||||||||
| Prepaid reinsurance premiums | 121 | 55 | ||||||||||||
| Deferred policy acquisition costs | 1,229 | 1,093 | ||||||||||||
| Land, building and equipment, net, for company use (accumulated depreciation: 2024—$337; 2023—$337) | 213 | 208 | ||||||||||||
| Other assets | 887 | 681 | ||||||||||||
| Separate accounts | 948 | 925 | ||||||||||||
| Total assets | $ | 34,802 | $ | 32,769 | ||||||||||
| Liabilities | ||||||||||||||
| Insurance reserves | ||||||||||||||
| Loss and loss expense reserves | $ | 9,555 | $ | 9,050 | ||||||||||
| Life policy and investment contract reserves | 2,966 | 3,068 | ||||||||||||
| Unearned premiums | 4,826 | 4,119 | ||||||||||||
| Other liabilities | 1,391 | 1,311 | ||||||||||||
| Deferred income tax | 1,465 | 1,324 | ||||||||||||
| Note payable | 25 | 25 | ||||||||||||
| Long-term debt and lease obligations | 849 | 849 | ||||||||||||
| Separate accounts | 948 | 925 | ||||||||||||
| Total liabilities | 22,025 | 20,671 | ||||||||||||
| Commitments and contingent liabilities (Note 12) | ||||||||||||||
| Shareholders' Equity | ||||||||||||||
| Common stock, par value—$2 per share; (authorized: 2024 and 2023—500 million shares; issued: 2024 and 2023—198.3 million shares) | 397 | 397 | ||||||||||||
| Paid-in capital | 1,466 | 1,437 | ||||||||||||
| Retained earnings | 13,897 | 13,084 | ||||||||||||
| Accumulated other comprehensive loss | (470) | (435) | ||||||||||||
| Treasury stock at cost (2024—42.1 million shares and 2023—41.3 million shares) | (2,513) | (2,385) | ||||||||||||
| Total shareholders' equity | 12,777 | 12,098 | ||||||||||||
| Total liabilities and shareholders' equity | $ | 34,802 | $ | 32,769 | ||||||||||
Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2024 10-Q
Page 3
Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Income
| (Dollars in millions, except per share data) | Three months ended June 30, | Six months ended June 30, | |||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 2023 | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Revenues | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Earned premiums | $ | 2,156 | $ | 1,943 | $ | 4,227 | $ | 3,861 | |||||||||||||||
| Investment income, net of expenses | 242 | 220 | 487 | 430 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Investment gains and losses, net | 137 | 434 | 749 | 540 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Fee revenues | 5 | 6 | 9 | 10 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Other revenues | 4 | 2 | 7 | 5 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total revenues | 2,544 | 2,605 | 5,479 | 4,846 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Benefits and Expenses | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Insurance losses and contract holders' benefits | 1,480 | 1,340 | 2,829 | 2,738 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Underwriting, acquisition and insurance expenses | 655 | 579 | 1,271 | 1,135 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense | 14 | 13 | 27 | 27 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Other operating expenses | 9 | 7 | 13 | 12 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total benefits and expenses | 2,158 | 1,939 | 4,140 | 3,912 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Income Before Income Taxes | 386 | 666 | 1,339 | 934 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Provision for Income Taxes | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Current | 61 | 51 | 122 | 67 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Deferred | 13 | 81 | 150 | 108 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total provision for income taxes | 74 | 132 | 272 | 175 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Net Income | $ | 312 | $ | 534 | $ | 1,067 | $ | 759 | |||||||||||||||
| Per Common Share | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net income — basic | $ | 1.99 | $ | 3.40 | $ | 6.82 | $ | 4.83 | |||||||||||||||
| Net income — diluted | 1.98 | 3.38 | 6.77 | 4.80 | |||||||||||||||||||
Accompanying Notes are an integral part of these Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2024 10-Q
Page 4
Cincinnati Financial Corporation and Subsidiaries
Condensed Consolidated Statements of Comprehensive Income
| (Dollars in millions) | Three months ended June 30, |
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Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and
Results of Operations
The following discussion highlights significant factors influencing the condensed consolidated results of operations and financial position of Cincinnati Financial Corporation. It should be read in conjunction with the consolidated financial statements and related notes included in our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K. Unless otherwise noted, the industry data is prepared by A.M. Best Co., a leading insurance industry statistical, analytical and financial strength rating organization. Information from A.M. Best is presented on a statutory basis for insurance company regulation in the United States of America. When we provide our results on a comparable statutory basis, we label it as such; all other company data is presented in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America (GAAP).
We present per share data on a diluted basis unless otherwise noted, adjusting those amounts for all stock splits and dividends. Dollar amounts are rounded to millions; calculations of percent changes are based on dollar amounts rounded to the nearest million. Certain percentage changes are identified as not meaningful (nm).
SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT
This is our “Safe Harbor” statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Our business is subject to certain risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those suggested by the forward-looking statements in this report. Some of those risks and uncertainties are discussed in our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 30.
Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to:
-
Ongoing developments concerning business interruption insurance claims and litigation related to the COVID-19 pandemic that affect our estimates of losses and loss adjustment expenses or our ability to reasonably estimate such losses, such as:
-
The continuing duration of the pandemic and governmental actions to limit the spread of the virus that may produce additional economic losses
-
The number of policyholders that will ultimately submit claims or file lawsuits
-
The lack of submitted proofs of loss for allegedly covered claims
-
Judicial rulings in similar litigation involving other companies in the insurance industry
-
Differences in state laws and developing case law
-
Litigation trends, including varying legal theories advanced by policyholders
-
Whether and to what degree any class of policyholders may be certified
-
The inherent unpredictability of litigation
-
Effects of any future pandemic, or the resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic, that could affect results for reasons such as:
-
Securities market disruption or volatility and related effects such as decreased economic activity and continued supply chain disruptions that affect our investment portfolio and book value
-
An unusually high level of claims in our insurance or reinsurance operations that increase litigation-related expenses
-
An unusually high level of insurance losses, including risk of court decisions extending business interruption insurance in commercial property coverage forms to cover claims for pure economic loss related to such pandemic
-
Decreased premium revenue and cash flow from disruption to our distribution channel of independent agents, consumer self-isolation, travel limitations, business restrictions and decreased economic activity
-
Inability of our workforce, agencies or vendors to perform necessary business functions
-
Unusually high levels of catastrophe losses due to risk concentrations, changes in weather patterns (whether as a result of global climate change or otherwise), environmental events, war or political unrest, terrorism incidents, cyberattacks, civil unrest or other causes
-
Increased frequency and/or severity of claims or development of claims that are unforeseen at the time of policy issuance, due to inflationary trends or other causes
-
Inadequate estimates or assumptions, or reliance on third-party data used for critical accounting estimates
-
Declines in overall stock market values negatively affecting our equity portfolio and book value
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2024 10-Q
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-
Interest rate fluctuations or other factors that could significantly affect:
-
Our ability to generate growth in investment income
-
Values of our fixed-maturity investments, including accounts in which we hold bank-owned life insurance contract assets
-
Our traditional life policy reserves
-
Domestic and global events, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, war in the Middle East and disruptions in the banking and financial services industry, resulting in insurance losses, capital market or credit market uncertainty, followed by prolonged periods of economic instability or recession, that lead to:
-
Significant or prolonged decline in the fair value of a particular security or group of securities and impairment of the asset(s)
-
Significant decline in investment income due to reduced or eliminated dividend payouts from a particular security or group of securities
-
Significant rise in losses from surety or director and officer policies written for financial institutions or other insured entities or in losses from policies written by Cincinnati Re or Cincinnati Global
-
Our inability to manage Cincinnati Global or other subsidiaries to produce related business opportunities and growth prospects for our ongoing operations
-
Recession, prolonged elevated inflation or other economic conditions resulting in lower demand for insurance products or increased payment delinquencies
-
Ineffective information technology systems or discontinuing to develop and implement improvements in technology may impact our success and profitability
-
Difficulties with technology or data security breaches, including cyberattacks, that could negatively affect our or our agents’ ability to conduct business; disrupt our relationships with agents, policyholders and others; cause reputational damage, mitigation expenses and data loss and expose us to liability under federal and state laws
-
Difficulties with our operations and technology that may negatively impact our ability to conduct business, including cloud-based data information storage, data security, cyberattacks, remote working capabilities, and/or outsourcing relationships and third-party operations and data security
-
Disruption of the insurance market caused by technology innovations such as driverless cars that could decrease consumer demand for insurance products
-
Delays, inadequate data developed internally or from third parties, or performance inadequacies from ongoing development and implementation of underwriting and pricing methods, including telematics and other usage-based insurance methods, or technology projects and enhancements expected to increase our pricing accuracy, underwriting profit and competitiveness
-
Intense competition, and the impact of innovation, technological change and changing customer preferences on the insurance industry and the markets in which we operate, could harm our ability to maintain or increase our business volumes and profitability
-
Changing consumer insurance-buying habits and consolidation of independent insurance agencies could alter our competitive advantages
-
Inability to obtain adequate ceded reinsurance on acceptable terms, amount of reinsurance coverage purchased, financial strength of reinsurers and the potential for nonpayment or delay in payment by reinsurers
-
Inability to defer policy acquisition costs for any business segment if pricing and loss trends would lead management to conclude that segment could not achieve sustainable profitability
-
Inability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends consistent with current or past levels
-
Events or conditions that could weaken or harm our relationships with our independent agencies and
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Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Our greatest exposure to market risk is through our investment portfolio. Market risk is the potential for a decrease in securities' fair value resulting from broad yet uncontrollable forces such as: inflation, economic growth or recession, interest rates, world political conditions or other widespread unpredictable events. It is comprised of many individual risks that, when combined, create a macroeconomic impact.
Our view of potential risks and our sensitivity to such risks is discussed in our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk, Page 113.
The fair value of our investment portfolio was $26.043 billion at June 30, 2024, up $1.263 billion from year-end 2023, including a $618 million increase in the fixed-maturity portfolio and a $645 million increase in the equity portfolio.
| (Dollars in millions) | At June 30, 2024 | At December 31, 2023 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cost or amortized cost | Percent of total | Fair value | Percent of total | Cost or amortized cost | Percent of total | Fair value | Percent of total | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Taxable fixed maturities | $ | 11,152 | 57.5 | % | $ | 10,584 | 40.7 | % | $ | 10,414 | 55.8 | % | $ | 9,889 | 40.0 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
| Tax-exempt fixed maturities | 3,957 | 20.4 | 3,825 | 14.7 | 3,947 | 21.2 | 3,902 | 15.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Common equities | 3,870 | 20.0 | 11,283 | 43.3 | 3,869 | 20.8 | 10,641 | 42.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Nonredeemable preferred equities | 408 | 2.1 | 351 | 1.3 | 413 | 2.2 | 348 | 1.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 19,387 | 100.0 | % | $ | 26,043 | 100.0 | % | $ | 18,643 | 100.0 | % | $ | 24,780 | 100.0 | % | |||||||||||||||||||
At June 30, 2024, substantially all of our consolidated investment portfolio, measured at fair value, is classified as Level 1 or Level 2. See Item 1, Note 3, Fair Value Measurements, for additional discussion of our valuation techniques.
In addition to our investment portfolio, the total investments amount reported in our condensed consolidated balance sheets includes Other invested assets. Other invested assets included $507 million of private equity investments, $81 million of real estate through direct property ownership and development projects in the United States, $35 million of life policy loans and $18 million in Lloyd's deposit at June 30, 2024.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2024 10-Q
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FIXED-MATURITY SECURITIES INVESTMENTS
By maintaining a well-diversified fixed-maturity portfolio, we attempt to reduce overall risk. We invest new money in the bond market on a regular basis, targeting what we believe to be optimal risk-adjusted, after-tax yields. Risk, in this context, includes interest rate, call, reinvestment rate, credit and liquidity risk. We do not make a concerted effort to alter duration on a portfolio basis in response to anticipated movements in interest rates. By regularly investing in the bond market, we build a broad, diversified portfolio that we believe mitigates the impact of adverse economic factors.
In the first six months of 2024, the increase in fair value of our fixed-maturity portfolio was due to net purchases of securities, partially offset by an increase in our net unrealized loss position that reflected an increase in U.S. Treasury yields. At June 30, 2024, our fixed-maturity portfolio with an average rating of A2/A was valued at 95.4% of its amortized cost, compared with 96.0% at December 31, 2023.
At June 30, 2024, our investment-grade fixed-maturity securities represented 96.6% of the portfolio based on ratings provided by nationally recognized statistical rating organizations or the Securities Valuation Office of the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.
Attributes of the fixed-maturity portfolio include:
| At June 30, 2024 | At December 31, 2023 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Weighted average yield-to-amortized cost | 4.64 | % | 4.60 | % | ||||||||||||||||
| Weighted average maturity | 8.5 | yrs | 7.9 | yrs | ||||||||||||||||
| Effective duration | 4.4 | yrs | 4.3 | yrs | ||||||||||||||||
We discuss maturities of our fixed-maturity portfolio in our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 8, Note 2, Investments, Page 137, and in this quarterly report Item 2, Investments Results.
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Second-Quarter 2024 10-Q
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TAXABLE FIXED MATURITIES
Our taxable fixed-maturity portfolio, with a fair value of $10.584 billion at June 30, 2024, included:
| (Dollars in millions) | At June 30, 2024 | At December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||
| Investment-grade corporate | $ | 7,308 | $ | 7,040 | ||||||||||
| States, municipalities and political subdivisions | 786 | 801 | ||||||||||||
| Noninvestment-grade corporate | 417 | 412 | ||||||||||||
| Government-sponsored enterprises | 1,607 | 1,224 | ||||||||||||
| Asset-backed | 247 | 187 | ||||||||||||
| United States government | 186 | 200 | ||||||||||||
| Foreign government | 33 | 25 | ||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 10,584 | $ | 9,889 | ||||||||||
Our strategy is to buy, and typically hold, fixed-maturity investments to maturity, but we monitor credit profiles and fair value movements when determining holding periods for individual securities. With the exception of United States agency issues that include government-sponsored enterprises, no individual issuer's securities accounted for more than 0.9% of the taxable fixed-maturity portfolio at June 30, 2024. Our investment-grade corporate bonds had an average rating of Baa1 by Moody's or BBB+ by S&P Global Ratings and represented 69.0% of the taxable fixed-maturity portfolio's fair value at June 30, 2024, compared with 71.2% at year-end 2023.
The heaviest concentration in our investment-grade corporate bond portfolio, based on fair value at
June 30, 2024, was the financial sector. It represented 37.2% of our investment-grade corporate bond portfolio, compared with 38.2% at year-end 2023. The energy and utility sectors each represented 10.8%, compared with 11.2% and less than 10%, respectively, at year-end 2023. No other sector exceeded 10% of our investment-grade corporate bond portfolio.
As discussed in our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 1A, Risk Factors, Page 30, investments in the financial sector include various risks. See risk factors entitled “Financial disruption or a prolonged economic downturn could materially and adversely affect our investment performance” and “Our ability to achieve our performance objectives could be affected by changes in the financial, credit and capital markets or the general economy.”
Our taxable fixed-maturity portfolio at June 30, 2024, included $247 million of asset-backed securities with an average rating of Aa3/AA-.
TAX-EXEMPT FIXED MATURITIES
At June 30, 2024, we had $3.825 billion of tax-exempt fixed-maturity securities with an average rating of Aa2/AA by Moody's and S&P Global Ratings. We traditionally have purchased municipal bonds focusing on general obligation and essential services issues, such as water, waste disposal or others. The portfolio is well diversified among approximately 1,800 municipal bond issuers. No single municipal issuer accounted for more than 0.5% of the tax-exempt fixed-maturity portfolio at June 30, 2024.
INTEREST RATE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Because of our strong surplus, long-term investment horizon and ability to hold most fixed-maturity investments until maturity, we believe the company is adequately positioned if interest rates were to rise. Although the fair values of our existing holdings may suffer, a higher rate environment would provide the opportunity to invest cash flow in higher-yielding securities, while reducing the likelihood of untimely redemptions of currently callable securities. While higher interest rates would be expected to continue to increase the number of fixed-maturity holdings trading below 100% of amortized cost, we believe lower fixed-maturity security values due solely to interest rate changes would not signal a decline in credit quality. We continue to manage the portfolio with an eye toward both meeting current income needs and managing interest rate risk.
Our dynamic financial planning model uses analytical tools to assess market risks. As part of this model, the effective duration of the fixed-maturity portfolio is continually monitored by our investment department to evaluate the theoretical impact of interest rate movements.
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The table below summarizes the effect of hypothetical changes in interest rates on the fair value of the fixed-maturity portfolio:
| (Dollars in millions) | Effect from interest rate change in basis points | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| -200 | -100 | — | 100 | 200 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At June 30, 2024 | $ | 15,661 | $ | 15,038 | $ | 14,409 | $ | 13,744 | $ | 13,055 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2023 | $ | 14,962 | $ | 14,375 | $ | 13,791 | $ | 13,179 | $ | 12,543 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
The effective duration of the fixed-maturity portfolio as of June 30, 2024, was 4.4 years, up from 4.3 years at the end of 2023. The above table is a theoretical presentation showing that an instantaneous, parallel shift in the yield curve of 100 basis points could produce an approximately 4.5% change in the fair value of the fixed-maturity portfolio. Generally speaking, the higher a bond is rated, the more directly correlated movements in its fair value are to changes in the general level of interest rates, exclusive of call features. The fair values of average- to lower-rated corporate bonds are additionally influenced by the expansion or contraction of credit spreads.
In our dynamic financial planning model, the selected interest rate change of 100 to 200 basis points represents our view of a shift in rates that is quite possible over a one-year period. The rates modeled should not be considered a prediction of future events as interest rates may be much more volatile in the future. The analysis is not intended to provide a precise forecast of the effect of changes in rates on our results or financial condition, nor does it take into account any actions that we might take to reduce exposure to such risks.
EQUITY INVESTMENTS
Our equity investments, with a fair value totaling $11.634 billion at June 30, 2024, included $11.283 billion of common stock securities of companies generally with strong indications of paying and growing their dividends. Other criteria we evaluate include increasing sales and earnings, proven management and a favorable outlook. We believe our equity investment style is an appropriate long-term strategy. While our long-term financial position would be affected by prolonged changes in the market valuation of our investments, we believe our strong surplus position and cash flow provide a cushion against short-term fluctuations in valuation. Continued payment of cash dividends by the issuers of our common equity holdings can provide a floor to their valuation.
The table below summarizes the effect of hypothetical changes in market prices on fair value of our equity portfolio.
| (Dollars in millions) | Effect from market price change in percent | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| -30% | -20% | -10% | — | 10% | 20% | 30% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At June 30, 2024 | $ | 8,144 | $ | 9,307 | $ | 10,471 | $ | 11,634 | $ | 12,797 | $ | 13,961 | $ | 15,124 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2023 | $ | 7,692 | $ | 8,791 | $ | 9,890 | $ | 10,989 | $ | 12,088 | $ | 13,187 | $ | 14,286 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
At June 30, 2024, Microsoft (Nasdaq:MSFT) was our largest single common stock holding with a fair value of $1.001 billion, or 8.9% of our publicly traded common stock portfolio and 3.8% of the total investment portfolio. Thirty-eight holdings among eight different sectors each had a fair value greater than $100 million.
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Common Stock Portfolio Industry Sector Distribution
| Percent of common stock portfolio | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| At June 30, 2024 | At December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cincinnati Financial | S&P 500 Industry Weightings | Cincinnati Financial | S&P 500 Industry Weightings | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Sector: | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Information technology | 36.3 | % | 32.4 | % | 33.1 | % | 28.9 | % | |||||||||||||||
| Financial | 13.1 | 12.4 | 13.9 | 13.0 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Industrials | 11.9 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Healthcare | 10.7 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Consumer staples | 6.8 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 6.2 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Consumer discretionary | 6.6 | 10.0 | 7.0 | 10.8 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Energy | 4.3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 3.9 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Materials | 4.2 | 2.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Utilities | 2.7 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.3 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Real estate | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Telecomm services | 1.3 | 9.3 | 1.4 | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | 100.0 | % | |||||||||||||||
UNREALIZED INVESTMENT GAINS AND LOSSES
At June 30, 2024, unrealized investment gains before taxes for the fixed-maturity portfolio totaled $67 million and unrealized investment losses amounted to $767 million before taxes.
The $700 million net unrealized loss position in our fixed-maturity portfolio at June 30, 2024, increased in the first six months of 2024, primarily due to an increase in U.S. Treasury yields. The net loss position for our current fixed-maturity holdings will naturally decline over time as individual securities approach maturity. In addition, changes in interest rates can cause rapid, significant changes in fair values of fixed-maturity securities and the net loss position, as discussed in Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.
For federal income tax purposes, taxes on gains from appreciated investments generally are not due until securities are sold. We believe that the appreciated value of equity securities, compared with the cost of securities that is generally used as a tax basis, is a useful measure to help evaluate how fair value can change over time. On this basis, the net unrealized investment gains at June 30, 2024, consisted of a net gain position in our equity portfolio of $7.356 billion. Events or factors such as economic growth or recession can affect the fair value and unrealized investment gains of our equity securities. The five largest holdings in our common stock portfolio were Microsoft, Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL), Broadcom Inc. (Nasdaq:AVGO), JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM) and UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH), which had a combined fair value of $3.484 billion.
Unrealized Investment Losses
We expect the number of fixed-maturity securities trading below amortized cost to fluctuate as interest rates rise or fall and credit spreads expand or contract due to prevailing economic conditions. Further, amortized costs for some securities are revised through write-downs recognized in prior periods. At June 30, 2024, 3,784 of the 4,916 fixed-maturity securities we owned had fair values below amortized cost, compared with 2,840 of the 4,738 securities we owned at year-end 2023. The 3,784 holdings with fair values below amortized cost at June 30, 2024, represented 78.7% of the fair value of our fixed-maturity investment portfolio and $767 million in unrealized losses.
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2,806 of the 3,784 holdings had fair value between 90% and 100% of amortized cost at June 30, 2024. These primarily consist of securities whose current valuation is largely the result of interest rate factors. The fair value of these 2,806 securities was $9.195 billion, and they accounted for $276 million in unrealized losses.
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962 of the 3,784 fixed-maturity holdings had fair value between 70% and 90% of amortized cost at June 30, 2024. We believe the 962 fixed-maturity securities will continue to pay interest and ultimately pay principal upon maturity. The issuers of these 962 securities have strong cash flow to service their debt and meet
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their contractual obligation to make principal payments. The fair value of these securities was $2.115 billion, and they accounted for $474 million in unrealized losses.
- 16 of the 3,784 fixed-maturity holdings had fair value below 70% of amortized cost at June 30, 2024. We believe these fixed-maturity securities will continue to pay interest and ultimately pay principal upon maturity. The fair value of these securities was $32 million, and they accounted for $17 million in unrealized losses.
The table below reviews fair values and unrealized losses by investment category and by the overall duration of the securities' continuous unrealized loss position.
| (Dollars in millions) | Less than 12 months | 12 months or more | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At June 30, 2024 | Fair value | Unrealized losses | Fair value | Unrealized losses | Fair value | Unrealized losses | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed-maturity securities: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Corporate | $ | 1,004 | $ | 17 | $ | 5,413 | $ | 458 | $ | 6,417 | $ | 475 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| States, municipalities and political subdivisions | 1,390 | 20 | 2,090 | 253 | 3,480 | 273 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Government-sponsored enterprises | 819 | 2 | 242 | 3 | 1,061 | 5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Asset-backed | 54 | — | 119 | 10 | 173 | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United States government | 78 | — | 101 | 4 | 179 | 4 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Foreign government | 25 | — | 7 | — | 32 | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 3,370 | $ | 39 | $ | 7,972 | $ | 728 | $ | 11,342 | $ | 767 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed-maturity securities: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Corporate | $ | 379 | $ | 13 | $ | 5,560 | $ | 441 | $ | 5,939 | $ | 454 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| States, municipalities and political subdivisions | 313 | 2 | 1,932 | 206 | 2,245 | 208 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Government-sponsored enterprises | 652 | 3 | 113 | 3 | 765 | 6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Asset-backed | 5 | — | 172 | 16 | 177 | 16 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| United States government | 32 | — | 129 | 3 | 161 | 3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Foreign government | 3 | — | 6 | — | 9 | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 1,384 | $ | 18 | $ | 7,912 | $ | 669 | $ | 9,296 | $ | 687 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
At June 30, 2024, applying our invested asset impairment policy, we determined that the total of $767 million, for securities in an unrealized loss position in the table above, was not the result of a credit loss.
During the first six months of 2024, no fixed maturity securities were written down to fair value, due to an intention to be sold. The allowance for credit losses increased $25 million during the first six months of 2024. During the first six months of 2023, one fixed-maturity security was written down to fair value, due to an intention to be sold, resulting in $4 million of noncash charges. Changes in allowance for credit losses were $3 million during the first six months of 2023.
During the full year of 2023, we wrote down one security and recorded $4 million in impairment charges. At December 31, 2023, 2,840 fixed-maturity securities with a total unrealized loss of $687 million were in an unrealized loss position. Of that total, 20 fixed-maturity securities had fair values below 70% of amortized cost.
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The following table summarizes the investment portfolio by severity of decline:
| (Dollars in millions) | Number of issues | Amortized cost | Fair value | Gross unrealized gain (loss) | Gross investment income | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| At June 30, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Taxable fixed maturities: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost | 10 | $ | 39 | $ | 25 | $ | (14) | $ | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost | 2,044 | 9,154 | 8,548 | (606) | 205 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost | 447 | 1,959 | 2,011 | 52 | 59 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income on securities sold in current year | — | — | — | — | 10 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,501 | 11,152 | 10,584 | (568) | 275 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tax-exempt fixed maturities: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost | 6 | 10 | 7 | (3) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost | 1,724 | 2,906 | 2,762 | (144) | 46 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost | 685 | 1,041 | 1,056 | 15 | 20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income on securities sold in current year | — | — | — | — | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 2,415 | 3,957 | 3,825 | (132) | 67 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed-maturities summary: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost | 16 | 49 | 32 | (17) | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost | 3,768 | 12,060 | 11,310 | (750) | 251 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost | 1,132 | 3,000 | 3,067 | 67 | 79 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income on securities sold in current year | — | — | — | — | 11 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 4,916 | $ | 15,109 | $ | 14,409 | $ | (700) | $ | 342 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| At December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed-maturities summary: | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued below 70% of amortized cost | 20 | $ | 67 | $ | 44 | $ | (23) | $ | 3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 70% to less than 100% of amortized cost | 2,820 | 9,916 | 9,252 | (664) | 409 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair valued at 100% and above of amortized cost | 1,898 | 4,378 | 4,495 | 117 | 162 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income on securities sold in current year | — | — | — | — | 26 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | 4,738 | $ | 14,361 | $ | 13,791 | $ | (570) | $ | 600 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
See our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K, Item 7, Critical Accounting Estimates, Asset Impairment, Page 58.
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Item 4. Controls and Procedures
Evaluation of Disclosure Controls and Procedures – The company maintains disclosure controls and procedures (as that term is defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (Exchange Act)).
Any controls and procedures, no matter how well designed and operated, can provide only reasonable assurance of achieving the desired control objectives. The company's management, with the participation of the company's chief executive officer and chief financial officer, has evaluated the effectiveness of the design and operation of the company's disclosure controls and procedures as of June 30, 2024. Based upon that evaluation, the company's chief executive officer and chief financial officer concluded that the design and operation of the company's disclosure controls and procedures provided reasonable assurance that the disclosure controls and procedures are effective to ensure:
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that information required to be disclosed in the company's reports under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the time periods specified in the Securities and Exchange Commission's rules and forms, and
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that such information is accumulated and communicated to the company's management, including its chief executive officer and chief financial officer, as appropriate, to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosures.
Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting – During the three months ended June 30, 2024, there were no changes in our internal controls over financial reporting that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.
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Part II – Other Information
Item 1. Legal Proceedings
Neither the company nor any of our subsidiaries are involved in any litigation believed to be material other than ordinary, routine litigation incidental to the nature of our business.
Item 1A. Risk Factors
Our risk factors have not changed materially since they were described in our 2023 Annual Report on Form 10-K filed February 26, 2024. Investors should not interpret the disclosure of a risk to imply that the risk has not already materialized.
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Item 2. Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities and Use of Proceeds
We did not sell any of our shares that were not registered under the Securities Act during the first six months of 2024. Our repurchase program does not have an expiration date. On January 26, 2018, an additional 15 million shares were authorized, which expanded our current repurchase program. We have 5,651,785 shares available for purchase under our programs at June 30, 2024.
| Period | Total number of shares purchased | Average price paid per share | Total number of shares purchased as part of publicly announced plans or programs | Maximum number of shares that may yet be purchased under the plans or programs | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| April 1-30, 2024 | 108,834 | $ | 115.47 | 108,834 | 5,937,951 | |||||||||||||||||||||
| May 1-31, 2024 | 286,166 | 116.66 | 286,166 | 5,651,785 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| June 1-30, 2024 | — | — | — | 5,651,785 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Totals | 395,000 | 116.33 | 395,000 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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Item 5. Other Information
Neither the company nor any of our officers or directors adopted or terminated a Rule 10b5-1 or non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement as defined by Item 408(a) and Item 408(d) of Regulation S-K during the last fiscal quarter.
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Item 6. Exhibits
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SIGNATURE
Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.
| CINCINNATI FINANCIAL CORPORATION | ||
| Date: July 25, 2024 | ||
| /S/ Michael J. Sewell | ||
| Michael J. Sewell, CPA | ||
| Chief Financial Officer, Executive Vice President and Treasurer | ||
| (Principal Accounting Officer) |
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