Item 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

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Item 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

You should read the following discussion together with Item 6. “Selected Financial Data” and our consolidated financial statements and related notes included in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” The discussion contains forward-looking statements involving risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause our results to differ materially from expectations. Factors that might cause such differences include those described in Item 1A. “Risk Factors” and elsewhere in this report.

Overview

Steve Ells, our founder, Chairman and CEO, started Chipotle with the idea that food served fast did not have to be a typical fast food experience. Today, Chipotle continues to offer a focused menu of burritos, tacos, burrito bowls, and salads made from fresh, high-quality raw ingredients, prepared using classic cooking methods and served in an interactive style allowing people to get what they want. Chipotle seeks out extraordinary ingredients that are not only fresh, but that are raised responsibly, with respect for the animals, land, and people who produce them. Chipotle prepares its food using whole, unprocessed ingredients and without the use of added colors, flavors or other additives typically found in fast food. Chipotle opened with a single restaurant in Denver in 1993 and as of December 31, 2016, operated 2,250 restaurants.

Our focus during 2017 is to return to sales and profitability growth and restore our restaurant economic model. To do so, we have a renewed focus on ensuring that every guest in every one of our restaurants is provided with an excellent customer experience.

2016 Highlights and Trends

Operating Results. Our sales and profitability were adversely impacted throughout 2016 as a result of a number of food-borne illness incidents associated with Chipotle restaurants in as many as 15 states, which were widely reported during the fourth quarter of 2015 and the first quarter of 2016. Our comparable restaurant sales trends have improved sequentially for each quarter during 2016 as shown below:

2016
Mar. 31Jun. 30Sep. 30Dec. 31Full year
Comparable restaurant sales declines(29.7%)(23.6%)(21.9%)(4.8%)(20.4%)
Impact of deferred revenue on comparable restaurant sales--(0.8%)0.5%(0.1%)

Our sales comparisons were lapping an easier compare in the fourth quarter due to lower sales levels in November and December 2015 as a result of the food-borne illness incidents. Comparable restaurant sales decreases were driven primarily by a 14.4% decrease in the number of transactions for the full year 2016, and to a lesser extent by decreases in average check. Comparable restaurant sales represent the change in period-over-period sales for restaurants beginning in their 13th full calendar month of operation. Average restaurant sales were $1.868 million as of December 31, 2016, decreasing from $2.424 million as of December 31, 2015. We define average restaurant sales as the average trailing 12-month sales for restaurants in operation for at least 12 full calendar months.

During the full year 2016, our restaurant operating costs (food, beverage and packaging; labor; occupancy; and other operating costs) as a percent of revenue increased 13.3% as compared to the full year 2015. About 6.2% of the increase was attributable to sales deleveraging, while incremental marketing and promotional spend aimed at regaining our customers, combined with additional labor to support the sales promotions, contributed about 3.1% to the increase. Additionally, as part of our response to the food-borne illness incidents, we have implemented enhanced food safety procedures in our supply chain and restaurants that have increased our food costs as a percentage of revenue. We anticipate that the ongoing impact of the enhanced food safety procedures on our food costs as a percentage of revenue will be approximately 1% compared to pre-crisis levels.

Restaurant Development. As of December 31, 2016, we had 2,250 restaurants in operation, including 2,198 Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, with an additional 29 international Chipotle restaurants and 23 non-Chipotle restaurants that were consolidated into our financial results. We opened 240 restaurants in 2016, net of relocations and closures, which contributed $156.2 million to revenue. In the fourth quarter of 2016, we announced that we were exploring strategic alternatives for our 15 ShopHouse Southeast Asian Kitchen restaurants, and as a result, we recognized a non-cash impairment charge of $14.5 million.

Stock Repurchases. In accordance with stock repurchases authorized by our Board of Directors, we purchased shares of our common stock during 2016 with an aggregate total repurchase price of $813.9 million. As of December 31, 2016, $102.6 million was available for stock repurchases under the authorizations announced on May 11, 2016 and October 25, 2016. On January 10, 2017, we also announced authorizations by our Board of Directors of up to an additional $100 million in common stock repurchases. We have entered into an agreement with a broker under SEC rule 10b5-1(c), authorizing the broker to make open market purchases of common stock from time to time, subject to market conditions. The existing repurchase agreement and the Board’s authorizations of the repurchases may be modified, suspended, or discontinued at any time.

Management and Governance Enhancements. In the fourth quarter of 2016, we announced that our Board of Directors named Steve Ells as our sole chief executive officer, and that Monty Moran, formerly our co-Chief Executive Officer, had stepped down from his officer and board positions and will retire effective June 9, 2017. On December 19, 2016, we also announced the appointment of four new members to our Board of Directors, two of whom were nominated by Pershing Square Capital Management, L.P., which, together with its affiliates, we believe to be our largest shareholder.

2017 Outlook

Sales. We are targeting comparable restaurant sales increases in the high single digits for the full year 2017 as comparisons become easier in the first half of 2017, and based on our plans to attract more customers with a variety of marketing activities and improvements to our digital ordering platforms, and by improving the quality of the customer experience we provide in our restaurants.

Restaurant Operating Costs. We expect to reduce restaurant level operating costs as a percent of revenue for the full year 2017. Our expectation is based in part on the increased sales we are anticipating and the resulting leverage in fixed operating costs, but we are forecasting additional improvements as well. We expect food, beverage and packaging costs to decrease as a percent of revenue due to relief in avocado prices and more efficient food management. We also believe that other operating expenses will decline compared to 2016 as we reduce marketing and promotional spend as a percent of revenue from the elevated levels of 2016, although we still plan for these expenses in 2017 to be above historical levels.

Other Expense Items and Restaurant Development Plans. We expect that general and administrative expenses will increase in 2017 due to higher non-cash stock-based compensation expense and higher bonuses, although underlying general and administrative expenses for the year should remain relatively consistent with 2016. The expected increase in stock based compensation is primarily a result of lower expense in 2016 due to an expense reversal for performance-based stock awards that did not vest, as well as higher expense in 2017 due to a planned retention award for non-executive employees and broadening the group of non-executive employees eligible for awards. We expect to realize cost efficiencies in the development of our restaurants in 2017 by simplifying our restaurant design, and choosing real estate sites, such as end-caps, that can more easily and cost-efficiently be converted into Chipotle restaurants. We intend to open between 195 and 210 restaurants for the full year 2017. Most of our 2017 restaurant openings are planned in markets that are proven or already have a Chipotle presence established.

Tax Rates. We expect the 2017 full year effective tax rate to be between 39.0% and 39.5%. However, as discussed in Note 1. “Description of Business and Summary of Significant Accounting Policies,” included in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data” the adoption of ASU No. 2016-09, “Compensation-Stock Compensation (Topic 718)” will subject our tax rate to quarterly volatility from the effect of stock award exercise and vesting activities.

Restaurant Openings, Relocations and Closures

The following table details restaurant unit data for the years indicated.

Year ended December 31,
201620152014
Beginning of period2,0101,7831,595
Openings243229192
Relocations/closures(3)(2)(4)
Total restaurants at end of period2,2502,0101,783

Results of Operations

Our results of operations as a percentage of revenue and period-over-period variances are discussed in the following section.

Revenue

Year ended December 31,% increase/ (decrease)% increase/ (decrease)
2016201520142016 over 20152015 over 2014
(dollars in millions)
Revenue$3,904.4$4,501.2$4,108.3(13.3%)9.6%
Average restaurant sales$1.868$2.424$2.472(22.9%)(1.9%)
Comparable restaurant sales(20.4%)0.2%16.8%
Number of restaurants as of the end of the period2,2502,0101,78311.9%12.7%
Number of restaurants opened in the period, net of relocations/closures240227188

In 2016, the decrease in revenue was attributable to a decline in comparable restaurant sales, partially offset by new restaurant openings. Comparable restaurant sales decreased $914.7 million while revenue from restaurants not yet in the comparable restaurant base contributed $323.9 million, of which $156.2 million was attributable to restaurants opened in 2016.

In 2015, increased revenue was primarily driven by new restaurant openings. Revenue from restaurants not yet in the comparable base contributed $390.4 million of the increase in sales in 2015, of which $183.6 million was attributable to restaurants opened during 2015.

Food, Beverage and Packaging Costs

Year ended December 31,% decrease% increase
2016201520142016 over 20152015 over 2014
(dollars in millions)
Food, beverage and packaging$1,365.6$1,503.8$1,421.0(9.2%)5.8%
As a percentage of revenue35.0%33.4%34.6%

Food, beverage and packaging costs increased as a percentage of revenue in 2016 primarily due to increased waste and costs related to new food safety procedures as well as higher avocado prices, partially offset by relief in beef prices. In dollar terms, food, beverage and packaging costs decreased in 2016 due to lower sales.

Food, beverage and packaging costs decreased as a percentage of revenue in 2015 primarily due to the benefit of the nation-wide menu price increases taken in the second quarter of 2014 and relief in dairy and avocado costs. The decrease was partially offset by inflation on beef costs.

Labor Costs

Year ended December 31,% increase% increase
2016201520142016 over 20152015 over 2014
(dollars in millions)
Labor costs$1,105.0$1,045.7$904.45.7%15.6%
As a percentage of revenue28.3%23.2%22.0%

Labor costs as a percentage of revenue increased in 2016 due primarily to sales deleveraging and wage inflation, partially offset by labor efficiencies resulting from fewer managers and crew in each of our restaurants. Although we incurred additional costs to staff our restaurants for sales promotions during 2016, those incremental costs were offset by the improvement from 2015 when we incurred scheduling inefficiencies as a result of reporting challenges from a system change in early 2015. Labor costs increased in dollar terms for the year ended December 31, 2016 due to staffing needs for new restaurants.

Labor costs as a percentage of revenue increased in 2015 compared to full year 2014 due primarily to wage inflation and an increased number of crew and managers in each of our restaurants caused by scheduling inefficiencies occurring earlier in the year.

Occupancy Costs

Year ended December 31,% increase% increase
2016201520142016 over 20152015 over 2014
(dollars in millions)
Occupancy costs$293.6$262.4$230.911.9%13.7%
As a percentage of revenue7.5%5.8%5.6%

Occupancy costs as a percentage of revenue increased in 2016 primarily due to lower average restaurant sales on a partially fixed-cost base. Occupancy costs increased in dollar terms for the year ended December 31, 2016, primarily due to costs associated with new restaurants.

In 2015, occupancy costs increased as a percentage of revenue primarily due to higher average rents for new locations.

Other Operating Costs

Year ended December 31,% increase% increase
2016201520142016 over 20152015 over 2014
(dollars in millions)
Other operating costs$642.0$515.0$434.224.7%18.6%
As a percentage of revenue16.4%11.4%10.6%

Other operating costs include, among other items, marketing and promotional costs, bank and credit card fees, and restaurant utilities and maintenance costs. Other operating costs increased as a percentage of revenue in 2016 due primarily to higher marketing and promotional expense as well as sales deleveraging. We increased our marketing and promotional spend in an effort to regain customers, which contributed $98.2 million to the increase.

Other operating costs increased as a percentage of revenue in 2015 due primarily to a change in the classification of kitchen gloves out of food, beverage, and packaging costs beginning in 2015, and higher marketing and promotional costs.

General and Administrative Expenses

Year ended December 31,% increase% decrease
2016201520142016 over 20152015 over 2014
(dollars in millions)
General and administrative expense$276.2$250.2$273.910.4%(8.6%)
As a percentage of revenue7.1%5.6%6.7%

The increase in general and administrative expenses in dollar terms for 2016 primarily resulted from increased legal expense, higher payroll costs as we grew, and expenses associated with our biennial All Managers’ Conference held during 2016, partially offset by lower bonus expense and travel costs.

The decrease in general and administrative expenses in dollar terms in 2015 primarily resulted from decreased non-cash stock-based compensation expense, lower bonus expense, and decreased expense associated with our biennial All Managers’ Conference held during 2014, partially offset by higher payroll costs as we grew. Stock-based compensation expense decreased $39.4 million primarily due to a change in the structure of our executive compensation, as well as a decrease in our estimate of non-vested performance stock awards that we expect to vest.

Depreciation and Amortization

Year ended December 31,% increase% increase
2016201520142016 over 20152015 over 2014
(dollars in millions)
Depreciation and amortization$146.4$130.4$110.512.3%18.0%
As a percentage of revenue3.7%2.9%2.7%

Depreciation and amortization increased as a percentage of revenue in 2016 due to sales deleveraging. The increase in dollar terms was due primarily to depreciation and amortization costs associated with new restaurants.

In 2015, depreciation and amortization increased as a percentage of revenue due to reinvestment costs for our restaurants as they age.

Loss on Disposal of Assets

Year ended December 31,% increase% increase
2016201520142016 over 20152015 over 2014
(dollars in millions)
Loss on disposal and impairment of assets$23.9$13.2$7.081.0%89.1%
As a percentage of revenue0.6%0.3%0.2%

Loss on disposal and impairment of assets increased in 2016 primarily due to a non-cash impairment charge of $14.5 million to write-down substantially all of the value of the long-lived assets of our ShopHouse restaurants.

Loss on disposal of assets increased in 2015 due to impairment charges resulting from an internally developed software program that we chose not to implement and related hardware, the discontinued use of certain kitchen equipment, as well as restaurant relocations.

Income Tax Provision

Year ended December 31,% decrease% increase
2016201520142016 over 20152015 over 2014
(dollars in millions)
Provision for income taxes$15.8$294.3$268.9(94.6%)9.4%
Effective tax rate40.8%38.2%37.6%

The 2016 effective tax rate was higher due to a higher state tax rate, not qualifying for the federal research and development tax credit in 2016, and non-deductible items on overall lower pre-tax operating income. The 2015 effective tax rate was higher than 2014 due primarily to 2014 benefiting from filing the 2013 tax returns, which included a non-recurring change in the estimate of usable employer credits.

Quarterly Financial Data/Seasonality

The following table presents data from the consolidated statement of income and comprehensive income for each of the eight quarters in the period ended December 31, 2016. The operating results for any quarter are not necessarily indicative of the results for any subsequent quarter. Results from the quarter ended December 31, 2015 and for each quarter in 2016 include the impact of the food-borne illness incidents described elsewhere in this report.

2016 Quarters Ended
March 31June 30September 30December 31
Revenue$834.5$998.4$1,037.0$1,034.6
Operating income (loss)$(46.6)$40.9$9.7$30.6
Net income (loss)$(26.4)$25.6$7.8$16.0
Number of restaurants opened in the quarter, net of relocations/closures56585472
Comparable restaurant sales increase (decrease)(29.7%)(23.6%)(21.9%)(4.8%)
2015 Quarters Ended
March 31June 30September 30December 31
Revenue$1,089.0$1,197.8$1,216.9$997.5
Operating income$197.8$227.4$234.8$103.6
Net income$122.6$140.2$144.9$67.9
Number of restaurants opened in the quarter, net of relocations/closures49485379
Comparable restaurant sales increase (decrease)10.4%4.3%2.6%(14.6%)

Seasonal factors cause our profitability to fluctuate from quarter to quarter. Historically, our average daily restaurant sales and net income are lower in the first and fourth quarters due, in part, to the holiday season and because fewer people eat out during periods of inclement weather (the winter months) than during periods of mild or warm weather (the spring, summer and fall months). Other factors also have a seasonal effect on our results. For example, restaurants located near colleges and universities generally do more business during the academic year. Seasonal factors, however, might be moderated or outweighed by other factors that may influence our quarterly results, such as the adverse publicity that we saw beginning in the fourth quarter of 2015 around food-borne illness incidents associated with our restaurants, as well as fluctuations in food or packaging costs or the timing of menu price increases. The number of trading days in a quarter can also affect our results, although, on an overall annual basis, changes in trading days do not have a significant impact.

Our quarterly results are also affected by other factors such as the amount and timing of non-cash stock-based compensation expense, the number of new restaurants opened in a quarter, anticipated and unanticipated events. New restaurants typically have lower margins following opening as a result of the expenses associated with opening new restaurants and their operating inefficiencies in the months immediately following opening. In addition, unanticipated events also impact our results. Accordingly, results for a particular quarter are not necessarily indicative of results to be expected for any other quarter or for any year.

Liquidity and Capital Resources

Our primary liquidity and capital requirements are for new restaurant construction, working capital and general corporate needs. As of December 31, 2016, we had a cash and short-term investment balance of $417.7 million that we expect to utilize, along with cash flow from operations, to provide capital to support the growth of our business (primarily through opening restaurants), to repurchase additional shares of our common stock subject to market conditions, to maintain our existing restaurants and for general corporate purposes. As of December 31, 2016, there was $102.6 million remaining available under repurchase authorizations previously approved by our Board of Directors. On January 10, 2017 we announced authorizations by our Board of Directors of up to an additional $100 million in common stock repurchases. We also have a long term investments balance of $125.1 million, which consists of U.S. treasury notes with maturities of up to 15 months. We believe that cash from operations, together with our cash and investment balances, will be enough to meet ongoing capital expenditures, working capital requirements and other cash needs for the foreseeable future.

We haven’t required significant working capital because customers generally pay using cash or credit and debit cards and because our operations do not require significant receivables, nor do they require significant inventories due, in part, to our use of various fresh ingredients. In addition, we generally have the right to pay for the purchase of food, beverage and supplies some time after the receipt of those items, generally within ten days, thereby reducing the need for incremental working capital to support our growth.

One of our primary uses of cash is in new restaurant development. Our total capital expenditures for 2016 were $258.8 million, and we expect to incur capital expenditures of about $224 million in 2017, of which about $170 million relates to our construction of new restaurants before any reductions for landlord reimbursements, and the remainder primarily relates to restaurant reinvestments, information technology and infrastructure initiatives, and other corporate expenses. Our expected reduction in capital expenditures is due to fewer planned restaurant openings and lower average investment costs per restaurant in 2017. In 2016, we spent on average about $880,000 in development and construction costs per restaurant, or about $790,000 net of landlord reimbursements of $90,000. For new restaurants to be opened in 2017, we anticipate average development costs will decrease due to cost savings initiatives.

Contractual Obligations

Our contractual obligations as of December 31, 2016 were as follows:

2016
Total1 year2-3 years4-5 yearsAfter 5 years
(in thousands)
Operating leases$3,682,979$264,911$537,995$521,132$2,358,941
Deemed landlord financing$3,895$423$846$885$1,741
Other contractual obligations(1)$301,623$232,014$69,609$-$-
Total contractual cash obligations$3,988,497$497,348$608,450$522,017$2,360,682

(1)We enter into various purchase obligations in the ordinary course of business. Those that are binding primarily relate to amounts owed for orders related to produce and other ingredients and supplies, construction contractor and subcontractor agreements, orders submitted for equipment for restaurants under construction, and marketing initiatives and corporate sponsorships.

The majority of our restaurants and administrative office leases are non-cancelable obligations. Our leases generally have initial terms of either five to ten years with two or more five-year extensions, for end-cap and in-line restaurants, or 10 to 15 years with several five-year extensions, for free-standing restaurants. Our leases generally require us to pay a proportionate share of real estate taxes, insurance, common charges and other operating costs. Some restaurant leases provide for contingent rental payments based on sales thresholds, although we generally do not expect to pay significant contingent rent on these properties based on the thresholds in those leases.

Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements

As of December 31, 2016 and 2015, we had no off-balance sheet arrangements or obligations.

Inflation

The primary areas of our operations affected by inflation are food, labor, healthcare costs, fuel, utility costs, materials used in the construction of our restaurants, and insurance. Although a significant majority of our crew members make more than the federal and applicable state and local minimum wage, increases in the applicable federal or state minimum wage may have an impact on our labor costs by causing wage inflation above the minimum wage level. Additionally, many of our leases require us to pay property taxes, maintenance, utilities and insurance, all of which are generally subject to inflationary increases. In the past we have largely been able to offset inflationary increases with menu price increases. There have been, and there may be in the future, delays in implementing such menu price increases. If we do raise menu prices in the future, general competitive pressures may limit our ability to completely recover cost increases attributable to inflation.

Critical Accounting Estimates

We describe our significant accounting policies in Note 1. “Description of Business and Summary of Significant Accounting Policies” and Note 6. “Stock Based Compensation” of our consolidated financial statements included in Item 8. “Financial Statements and Supplementary Data.” Critical accounting estimates are those that we believe are both significant and that require us to make difficult, subjective or complex judgments, often because we need to estimate the effect of inherently uncertain matters. We base our estimates and judgments on historical experiences and various other factors that we believe to be appropriate under the circumstances. Actual results may differ from these estimates, and we might obtain different estimates if we used different assumptions or factors. We believe that of our critical accounting estimates, the following involve a higher degree of judgement and subjectivity:

Leases

We lease nearly all of our restaurant locations. Our leases typically contain escalating rentals over the lease term as well as optional renewal periods. We have estimated that our lease term, including reasonably assured renewal periods, is the lesser of the lease term or 20 years. We account for our leases by recognizing rent expense on a straight-line basis over the reasonably assured lease term. The majority of our leasehold improvements are also depreciated over the reasonably assured lease term. If the estimate of our reasonably assured lease term was changed, our depreciation and rent expense could differ materially.

Stock-based Compensation

We recognize compensation expense for equity awards over the vesting period based on the award’s fair value. We use the Black-Scholes valuation model to determine the fair value of our stock-only stock appreciation rights, or SOSARs, and we use the Monte Carlo simulation model to determine the fair value of stock awards that contain market conditions. Both of these models require assumptions to be made regarding our stock price volatility, the expected life of the award and expected dividend rates. The volatility assumption was based on our historical data and implied volatility, and the expected life assumptions were based on our historical data. Similarly, the compensation expense of performance share awards, and SOSARs with performance-based vesting conditions is based in part on the estimated probability of our achieving levels of performance associated with particular levels of payout for performance shares and with vesting for performance SOSARs. We determine the probability of achievement of future levels of performance by comparing the relevant performance level with our internal estimates of future performance. Those estimates are based on a number of assumptions, and different assumptions may have resulted in different conclusions regarding the probability of our achieving future levels of performance relevant to the payout levels for the awards. Had we arrived at different assumptions of stock price volatility or expected lives of our SOSARs, or different assumptions regarding the probability of our achieving future levels of performance with respect to performance share awards and performance SOSARs, our stock-based compensation expense and results of operations could have been different. Awards that contain service, performance and market conditions ultimately vest based on Chipotle’s relative performance versus a restaurant industry peer group in the annual averages of revenue growth, net income growth, and total shareholder return. Our estimates of Chipotle’s future performance and the future performance of the restaurant industry peer group are assumptions that involve a high degree of subjectivity. If we had arrived at different assumptions for revenue growth or net income for Chipotle or the peer group, our stock-based compensation expense and results of operations could have been different.

Insurance Liability

We maintain various insurance policies for workers’ compensation, general liability and auto damage with varying deductibles as high as $1 million per incident, and for property which generally has a $1.5 million per incident deductible. We are self-insured for employee health but have third party insurance coverage to limit exposure to these claims. We record a liability that represents our estimated cost of claims incurred and unpaid as of the balance sheet date. Our estimated liability is not discounted and is based on a number of assumptions and factors, including historical trends, actuarial assumptions and economic conditions, and is closely monitored and adjusted when warranted by changing circumstances. Our history of claims experience is relatively short and our significant growth during most of our operating history could affect the accuracy of estimates based on historical experience. If a greater amount of claims occurs compared to what we have estimated, or if medical costs increase beyond what we expected, our accrued liabilities might not be sufficient and we may be required to record additional expense. Actual claims experience could also be more favorable than estimated, which would result in expense reductions. Unanticipated changes may produce materially different amounts of expense than that reported under these programs. The total estimated insurance liabilities as of December 31, 2016 were $49.4 million.

Reserves/Contingencies for Litigation and Other Matters

We are involved in various claims and legal actions that arise in the ordinary course of business. These actions are subject to many uncertainties, and we cannot predict the outcomes with any degree of certainty. Consequently, we were unable to estimate the ultimate aggregate amount of monetary liability or financial impact with respect to these matters as of December 31, 2016. Although we have recorded liabilities related to a number of legal actions, our estimates used to determine the amount of these liabilities may not be accurate, and there are other legal actions for which we have not recorded a liability. As a result, in the event legal actions for which we have not accrued a liability or for which our accrued liabilities are not accurate are resolved, such resolution may affect our operating results and cash flows.

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