Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
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Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Impact of Changes in Interest Rates, Equity Prices and Energy Commodity Prices
We are exposed to various market risks. These risks arise from transactions entered into in the normal course of business and are inherent in our consolidated financial statements. Most of the revenues and income from our business activities are affected by market risks. Categories of market risk include exposure to commodity prices through non-trading activities, interest rates and equity prices. A description of each market risk is set forth below:
| • | Interest rate risk primarily results from exposures to changes in the level of borrowings and changes in interest rates. |
| • | Equity price risk results from exposures to changes in prices of individual equity securities. |
| • | Commodity price risk results from exposures to changes in spot prices, forward prices and price volatilities of commodities, such as natural gas, natural gas liquids and other energy commodities. |
Management has established comprehensive risk management policies to monitor and manage these market risks. We manage these risk exposures through the implementation of our risk management policies and framework. We manage our commodity price risk exposures through the use of derivative financial instruments and derivative commodity instrument contracts. During the normal course of business, we review our hedging strategies and determine the hedging approach we deem appropriate based upon the circumstances of each situation.
Derivative instruments such as futures, forward contracts, swaps and options derive their value from underlying assets, indices, reference rates or a combination of these factors. These derivative instruments include negotiated contracts, which are referred to as over-the-counter derivatives, and instruments that are listed and traded on an exchange.
Derivative transactions are entered into in our non-trading operations to manage and hedge certain exposures, such as exposure to changes in natural gas prices. We believe that the associated market risk of these instruments can best be understood relative to the underlying assets or risk being hedged.
Interest Rate Risk
As of December 31, 2015, we had outstanding long-term debt, lease obligations and obligations under our ZENS that subject us to the risk of loss associated with movements in market interest rates.
Our floating rate obligations aggregated $1.1 billion and $532 million as of December 31, 2015 and 2014, respectively. If the floating interest rates were to increase by 10% from December 31, 2015 rates, our combined interest expense would increase by $1 million annually.
As of December 31, 2015 and 2014, we had outstanding fixed-rate debt (excluding indexed debt securities) aggregating $7.5 billion and $8.2 billion, respectively, in principal amount and having a fair value of $8.0 billion and $8.9 billion, respectively. Because these instruments are fixed-rate, they do not expose us to the risk of loss in earnings due to changes in market interest rates (see Note 12 to our consolidated financial statements). However, the fair value of these instruments would increase by approximately $216 million if interest rates were to decline by 10% from their levels at December 31, 2015. In general, such an increase in fair value would impact earnings and cash flows only if we were to reacquire all or a portion of these instruments in the open market prior to their maturity.
As discussed in Note 10 to our consolidated financial statements, the ZENS obligation is bifurcated into a debt component and a derivative component. The debt component of $154 million at December 31, 2015 was a fixed-rate obligation and, therefore, did not expose us to the risk of loss in earnings due to changes in market interest rates. However, the fair value of the debt component would increase by approximately $24 million if interest rates were to decline by 10% from levels at December 31, 2015. Changes
in the fair value of the derivative component, a $442 million recorded liability at December 31, 2015, are recorded in our Statements of Consolidated Income and, therefore, we are exposed to changes in the fair value of the derivative component as a result of changes in the underlying risk-free interest rate. If the risk-free interest rate were to increase by 10% from December 31, 2015 levels, the fair value of the derivative component liability would increase by approximately $8 million, which would be recorded as an unrealized loss in our Statements of Consolidated Income.
Equity Market Value Risk
We are exposed to equity market value risk through our ownership of 7.1 million shares of TW Common, 1.8 million shares of TWC Common and 0.9 million shares of Time Common, which we hold to facilitate our ability to meet our obligations under the ZENS. See Note 10 to our consolidated financial statements for a discussion of our ZENS obligation. A decrease of 10% from the December 31, 2015 aggregate market value of these shares would result in a net loss of approximately $14 million, which would be recorded as an unrealized loss in our Statements of Consolidated Income.
Commodity Price Risk From Non-Trading Activities
We use derivative instruments as economic hedges to offset the commodity price exposure inherent in our businesses. The stand-alone commodity risk created by these instruments, without regard to the offsetting effect of the underlying exposure these instruments are intended to hedge, is described below. We measure the commodity risk of our non-trading energy derivatives using a sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity analysis performed on our non-trading energy derivatives measures the potential loss in fair value based on a hypothetical 10% movement in energy prices. At December 31, 2015, the recorded fair value of our non-trading energy derivatives was a net asset of $53 million (before collateral), all of which is related to our Energy Services business segment. An increase of 10% in the market prices of energy commodities from their December 31, 2015 levels would have decreased the fair value of our non-trading energy derivatives net asset by $6 million.
The above analysis of the non-trading energy derivatives utilized for commodity price risk management purposes does not include the favorable impact that the same hypothetical price movement would have on our non-derivative physical purchases and sales of natural gas to which the hedges relate. Furthermore, the non-trading energy derivative portfolio is managed to complement the physical transaction portfolio, reducing overall risks within limits. Therefore, the adverse impact to the fair value of the portfolio of non-trading energy derivatives held for hedging purposes associated with the hypothetical changes in commodity prices referenced above is expected to be substantially offset by a favorable impact on the underlying hedged physical transactions.
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