Item 1A. RISK FACTORS
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Item 1A. RISK FACTORS
You
should carefully consider the following risk
factors in addition to the other information
included in this
Annual Report on Form 10-K.
These risk factors are not the only risks
we face.
Our business could also be
affected by additional risks and uncertainties not currently
known to us or that we currently consider to be
immaterial.
If any of these risks were to occur, our business, operating results and financial
condition, as well
as the value of an investment in our common
stock could be adversely affected.
Our operating results, our future rate of growth
and the carrying value of our assets are exposed
to the
effects of changing commodity prices.
Prices for crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, NGLs and
LNG can fluctuate widely.
Brent crude oil prices
averaged $64 per barrel in 2019, ranging from
a low of $53 per barrel in January to a high of almost
$75 per
barrel in April.
Given volatility in commodity price drivers
and the worldwide political and economic
environment generally, as well as increased uncertainty generated by recent (and
potential future) armed
hostilities in various oil-producing regions around the
globe, price trends may continue to be volatile.
Our
revenues, operating results and future rate of growth
are highly dependent on the prices
we receive for our
crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, NGLs and
LNG.
The factors influencing these prices are
beyond our control.
Lower crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, NGL and
LNG prices may have a material adverse effect on our
revenues, operating income, cash flows and liquidity, and may also affect the amount
of dividends we elect to
declare and pay on our common stock and the
amount of shares we elect to acquire as
part of the share
repurchase program and the timing of such acquisitions.
Lower prices may also limit the amount of reserves
we can produce economically, adversely affecting our proved reserves, reserve replacement
ratio and
accelerating the reduction in our existing reserve levels
as we continue production from upstream
fields.
Significant reductions in crude oil, bitumen, natural
gas, NGLs and LNG prices could also require
us to reduce
our capital expenditures, impair the carrying value
of our assets or discontinue the classification
of certain
assets as proved reserves.
In the past three years, we recognized several
impairments, which are described in
Note 9—Impairments and the “APLNG” section
of Note 6—Investments, Loans and Long-Term Receivables,
in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
If commodity prices remain low relative
to their historic
levels, and as we continue to optimize our investments
and exercise capital flexibility, it is reasonably likely
we will incur future impairments to long-lived assets
used in operations, investments in nonconsolidated
entities accounted for under the equity method and
unproved properties.
Although it is not reasonably
practicable to quantify the impact of any future
impairments at this time, our results of operations
could be
adversely affected as a result.
Our ability to declare and pay dividends and repurchase
shares is subject to certain considerations.
Dividends are authorized and determined by
our Board of Directors in its sole discretion
and depend upon a
number of factors, including:
●
Cash available for distribution.
●
Our results of operations and anticipated future
results of operations.
●
Our financial condition, especially in relation
to the anticipated future capital needs of our
properties.
●
The level of distributions paid by comparable companies.
●
Our operating expenses.
●
Other factors our Board of Directors deems
relevant.
We expect to continue to pay quarterly dividends to our stockholders; however, our Board of Directors may
reduce our dividend or cease declaring dividends
at any time, including if it determines that
our net cash
provided by operating activities,
after deducting capital expenditures and investments,
are not sufficient to pay
our desired levels of dividends to our stockholders
or to pay dividends to our stockholders at all.
Additionally, as of December 31, 2019, $5.4 billion of repurchase authority
remained of the $15 billion share
repurchase program our Board of Directors had
authorized.
In February, 2020, our Board of Directors
approved an increase to our repurchase authorization
from $15 billion to $25 billion, to support
our plan for
future share repurchases.
Our share repurchase program does not obligate
us to acquire a specific number of
shares during any period, and our decision to
commence, discontinue or resume repurchases
in any period will
depend on the same factors that our Board of
Directors may consider when declaring dividends,
among others.
Any downward revision in the amount of dividends
we pay to stockholders or the number of shares
we
purchase under our share repurchase program could
have an adverse effect on the market price of our common
stock.
We may need additional capital in the future, and it may not be available on acceptable
terms.
We have historically relied primarily upon cash generated by our operations to fund
our operations and
strategy; however, we have also relied from time to time on access to
the debt and equity capital markets for
funding.
There can be no assurance that additional debt
or equity financing will be available in the future
on
acceptable terms, or at all.
In addition, although we anticipate we
will be able to repay our existing
indebtedness when it matures or in accordance
with our stated plans, there can be no assurance
we will be able
to do so.
Our ability to obtain additional financing, or
refinance our existing indebtedness when it matures
or
in accordance with our plans, will be subject to a
number of factors, including market conditions,
our operating
performance, investor sentiment and our ability
to incur additional debt in compliance with agreements
governing our then-outstanding debt.
If we are unable to generate sufficient funds from
operations or raise
additional capital for any reason, our business could
be adversely affected.
In addition, we are regularly evaluated by the major
rating agencies based on a number of factors,
including
our financial strength and conditions affecting the oil
and gas industry generally.
We and other industry
companies have had their ratings reduced in the
past due to negative commodity price outlooks.
Any
downgrade in our credit rating or announcement
that our credit rating is under review for possible
downgrade
could increase the cost associated with any additional
indebtedness we incur.
Our business may be adversely affected by deterioration
in the credit quality of, or defaults under our
contracts with, third parties with whom we do
business.
The operation of our business requires us to engage
in transactions with numerous counterparties
operating in a
variety of industries, including other companies
operating in the oil and gas industry.
These counterparties
may default on their obligations to us as a result
of operational failures or a lack of liquidity, or for other
reasons, including bankruptcy.
Market speculation about the credit quality
of these counterparties, or their
ability to continue performing on their existing obligations,
may also exacerbate any operational difficulties
or
liquidity issues they are experiencing, particularly
as it relates to other companies in the oil and gas industry
as
a result of the volatility in commodity prices.
Any default by any of our counterparties may
result in our
inability to perform our obligations under agreements
we have made with third parties or may otherwise
adversely affect our business or results of operations.
In addition, our rights against any of our counterparties
as a result of a default may not be adequate to
compensate us for the resulting harm caused
or may not be
enforceable at all in some circumstances.
We may also be forced to incur additional costs as we attempt to
enforce any rights we have against a defaulting
counterparty, which could further adversely impact our results
of operations.
In particular, in August 2018, we entered into a settlement
agreement with Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A.
(PDVSA) providing for the payment of approximately
$2 billion over a five-year period in connection
with an
arbitration award issued by the International
Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Tribunal in favor of ConocoPhillips
on a contractual dispute arising from Venezuela’s expropriation of our interests in the Petrozuata and Hamaca
heavy oil ventures and other pre-expropriation
fiscal measures.
We collected approximately $0.8 billion of the
$2.0 billion settlement in 2018 and 2019.
PDVSA has defaulted on its remaining payment
obligations under
this agreement, we are therefore now forced to
incur additional costs as we seek to recover any
unpaid amounts
under the agreement.
Unless we successfully add to our existing proved
reserves, our future crude oil, bitumen,
natural gas and
NGL production will decline, resulting in an
adverse impact to our business.
The rate of production from upstream fields
generally declines as reserves are depleted.
If we do not conduct
successful exploration and development activities,
or, through engineering studies, optimize production
performance or identify additional or secondary
recovery reserves, our proved reserves
will decline materially
as we produce crude oil, bitumen, natural gas and
NGLs, and our business will experience reduced cash
flows
and results of operations.
Any cash conservation efforts we may undertake as a result
of commodity price
declines may further limit our ability to replace
depleted reserves.
The exploration and production of oil and gas
is a highly competitive industry.
The exploration and production of crude oil,
bitumen, natural gas and NGLs is a highly
competitive business.
We compete with private, public and state-owned companies in all facets of the
exploration and production
business, including to locate and obtain new
sources of supply and to produce oil, bitumen,
natural gas and
NGLs in an efficient, cost-effective manner.
Some of our competitors are larger and have greater
resources
than we do or may be willing to incur a higher
level of risk than we are willing to incur to obtain
potential
sources of supply.
If we are not successful in our competition
for new reserves, our financial condition and
results of operations may be adversely affected.
Any material change in the factors and assumptions
underlying our estimates of crude oil, bitumen,
natural
gas and NGL reserves could impair the quantity
and value of those reserves.
Our proved reserve information included in this annual
report represents management’s best estimates based
on assumptions, as of a specified date, of the volumes
to be recovered from underground accumulations of
crude oil, bitumen, natural gas and NGLs.
Such volumes cannot be directly measured
and the estimates and
underlying assumptions used by management are
subject to substantial risk and uncertainty.
Any material
changes in the factors and assumptions underlying
our estimates of these items could result
in a material
negative impact to the volume of reserves reported
or could cause us to incur impairment expenses
on property
associated with the production of those reserves.
Future reserve revisions could also result
from changes in,
among other things, governmental regulation.
We expect to continue to incur substantial capital expenditures and operating
costs as a result of our
compliance with existing and future environmental
laws and regulations.
Our business is subject to numerous laws and regulations
relating to the protection of the environment, which
are expected to continue to have an increasing
impact on our operations in the U.S. and in other
countries in
which we operate.
For a description of the most significant of these
environmental laws and regulations, see
the “Contingencies—Environmental” section
of Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial
Condition and Results of Operations.
These laws and regulations continue to increase
in both number and
complexity and affect our operations with respect to, among
other things:
●
Permits required in connection with exploration,
drilling, production and other activities.The
discharge of pollutants into the environment.
●
Emissions into the atmosphere, such as nitrogen
oxides, sulfur dioxide, mercury and GHG emissions.
●
Carbon taxes.
●
The handling, use, storage, transportation, disposal
and cleanup of hazardous materials and hazardous
and nonhazardous wastes.
●
The dismantlement, abandonment and restoration
of our properties and facilities at the
end of their
useful lives.
●
Exploration and production activities in
certain areas, such as offshore environments, arctic fields,
oil
sands reservoirs and unconventional plays.
We have incurred and will continue to incur substantial capital, operating and maintenance,
and remediation
expenditures as a result of these laws and regulations.
Any failure by us to comply with existing
or future
laws, regulations and other requirements could result
in administrative or civil penalties, criminal
fines, other
enforcement actions or third-party litigation
against us.
To the extent these expenditures, as with all costs, are
not ultimately reflected in the prices of our products
and services, our business, financial
condition, results of
operations and cash flows in future periods could
be materially adversely affected.
Existing and future laws, regulations and initiatives
relating to global climate change, such as limitations
on GHG emissions, may impact or limit
our business plans, result in significant expenditures,
promote
alternative uses of energy or reduce demand
for our products.
Continuing political and social attention to the
issue of global climate change has resulted in
both existing and
pending international agreements and national,
regional or local legislation and regulatory
measures to limit
GHG emissions, such as cap and trade regimes, carbon
taxes, restrictive permitting, increased fuel efficiency
standards and incentives or mandates for renewable
energy.
For example, in December 2015, the U.S. joined
the international community at the 21st Conference
of the Parties of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change in Paris that
prepared an agreement requiring member countries
to review and
represent a progression in their intended GHG
emission reduction goals every five years
beginning in 2020.
While the U.S. announced its intention to withdraw
from the Paris Agreement, there is no guarantee
that the
commitments made by the U.S. will not be implemented,
in whole or in part, by U.S. state and local
governments or by major corporations headquartered
in the U.S.
In addition, our operations continue in
countries around the world which are party to,
and have not announced an intent to
withdraw from, the Paris
Agreement.
The implementation of current agreements and
regulatory measures, as well as any future
agreements or measures addressing climate
change and GHG emissions, may adversely
impact the demand for
our products, impose taxes on our products or operations
or require us to purchase emission credits
or reduce
emission of GHGs from our operations.
As a result, we may experience declines in commodity
prices or incur
substantial capital expenditures and compliance,
operating, maintenance and remediation costs,
any of which
may have an adverse effect on our business and results
of operations.
Additionally, increasing attention to global climate change has resulted in pressure
upon shareholders,
financial institutions and/or financial markets
to modify their relationships with oil and gas companies
and to
limit investments and/or funding to such companies,
which could increase our costs or otherwise
adversely
affect our business and results of operations.
Furthermore, increasing attention to global climate
change has resulted in an increased likelihood of
governmental investigations and private litigation,
which could increase our costs or otherwise adversely
affect
our business.
In 2017 and 2018, cities, counties, and
a state government in California, New
York, Washington,
Rhode Island and Maryland, as well as the Pacific
Coast Federation of Fishermen’s Association, Inc., filed
lawsuits against oil and gas companies, including
ConocoPhillips, seeking compensatory damages
and
equitable relief to abate alleged climate change impacts.
ConocoPhillips is vigorously defending against
these
lawsuits.
The ultimate outcome and impact to us
cannot be predicted with certainty, and we could incur
substantial legal costs associated with defending
these and similar lawsuits in the future.
In addition, although
we design and operate our business operations
to accommodate expected climatic
conditions, to the extent there are significant
changes in the earth’s climate, such as more severe or frequent
weather conditions in the markets where we operate
or the areas where our assets reside, we could incur
increased expenses, our operations could be adversely
impacted, and demand for our products could
fall.
For more information on legislation or precursors
for possible regulation relating to global climate
change that
affect or could affect our operations and a description of the company’s response, see the
“Contingencies—
Climate Change” section of Management’s Discussion and Analysis
of Financial Condition and Results of
Operations.
Domestic and worldwide political and economic
developments could damage our operations and materially
reduce our profitability and cash flows.
Actions of the U.S., state, local and foreign
governments, through sanctions, tax and other
legislation,
executive order and commercial restrictions,
could reduce our operating profitability both
in the U.S. and
abroad.
In certain locations, governments have imposed
or proposed restrictions on our operations;
special
taxes or tax assessments; and payment transparency
regulations that could require us to disclose
competitively
sensitive information or might cause us to violate
non-disclosure laws of other countries.
One area subject to significant political
and regulatory activity is the use of hydraulic
fracturing, an essential
completion technique that facilitates production
of oil and natural gas otherwise trapped in lower
permeability
rock formations.
A range of local, state, federal and national laws
and regulations currently govern or, in some
hydraulic fracturing operations, prohibit hydraulic
fracturing in some jurisdictions.
Although hydraulic
fracturing has been conducted for many decades,
a number of new laws, regulations and permitting
requirements are under consideration by the
U.S. EPA and others which could result in increased costs,
operating restrictions, operational delays or limit
the ability to develop oil and natural gas resources.
Certain
jurisdictions in which we operate, including state
and local governments in Colorado, have adopted
or are
considering regulations that could impose new
or more stringent permitting, disclosure
or other regulatory
requirements on hydraulic fracturing or other oil
and natural-gas operations, including subsurface
water
disposal.
In addition, certain interest groups have also
proposed ballot initiatives and constitutional
amendments designed to restrict oil and natural-gas
development generally and hydraulic fracturing
in
particular.
For example, in 2018, Colorado voters rejected
Proposition 112, a Colorado ballot initiative that
would have drastically limited the use of hydraulic
fracturing in Colorado.
In the event that ballot initiatives,
local or state restrictions or prohibitions are
adopted and result in more stringent limitations
on the production
and development of oil and natural gas in areas
where we conduct operations, we may incur significant
costs to
comply with such requirements or may experience
delays or curtailment in the permitting
or pursuit of
exploration, development or production activities.
Such compliance costs and delays, curtailments,
limitations
or prohibitions could have a material adverse
effect on our business, prospects, results of operations, financial
condition and liquidity.
The U.S. government can also prevent or restrict
us from doing business in foreign countries.
These
restrictions and those of foreign governments
have in the past limited our ability to
operate in, or gain access
to, opportunities in various countries.
Actions by host governments, such as the expropriation
of our oil assets
by the Venezuelan government, have affected operations significantly in the past and may continue to
do so in
the future.
Changes in domestic and international regulations
may affect our ability to collect payments such
as those pertaining to the settlement with PDVSA
or the ICSID Award against the Government of Venezuela;
or to obtain or maintain permits, including those
necessary for drilling and development of wells
in various
locations.
Local political and economic factors in international
markets could have a material adverse effect on us.
Approximately 50 percent of our hydrocarbon
production was derived from production outside
the U.S. in
2019, and 39 percent of our proved reserves, as
of December 31, 2019, were located outside
the U.S.
We are
subject to risks associated with operations in international
markets, including changes in foreign governmental
policies relating to crude oil, natural gas, bitumen,
NGLs or LNG pricing and taxation, other
political,
economic or diplomatic developments (including
the effect of international trade discussion and disputes),
changing political conditions and international
monetary and currency rate fluctuations.
In addition, some
countries where we operate lack a fully independent
judiciary system.
This, coupled with changes in foreign
law or policy, results in a lack of legal certainty that exposes our operations to
increased risks, including
increased difficulty in enforcing our agreements in those
jurisdictions and increased risks of adverse
actions by
local government authorities, such as expropriations.
Our business may be adversely affected by price controls,
government-imposed limitations on production
of
crude oil, bitumen, natural gas and NGLs, or the
unavailability of adequate gathering, processing,
compression, transportation, and pipeline
facilities and equipment for our production
of crude oil, bitumen,
natural gas and NGLs.
As discussed above, our operations are subject
to extensive governmental regulations.
From time to time,
regulatory agencies have imposed price controls
and limitations on production by restricting
the rate of flow of
crude oil, bitumen, natural gas and NGL wells
below actual production capacity.
Because legal requirements
are frequently changed and subject to interpretation,
we cannot predict whether future restrictions
on our
business may be enacted or become applicable to
us.
Our ability to sell and deliver the crude oil, bitumen,
natural gas, NGLs and LNG that we produce
also
depends on the availability, proximity, and capacity of gathering, processing, compression, transportation
and
pipeline facilities and equipment, as well as any necessary
diluents to prepare our crude oil, bitumen, natural
gas, NGLs and LNG for transport.
The facilities, equipment and diluents we rely
on may be temporarily
unavailable to us due to market conditions, extreme
weather events, regulatory reasons, mechanical
reasons or
other factors or conditions, many of which are
beyond our control.
In addition, in certain newer plays, the
capacity of necessary facilities, equipment and diluents
may not be sufficient to accommodate production
from
existing and new wells, and construction and permitting
delays, permitting costs and regulatory or other
constraints could limit or delay the construction,
manufacture or other acquisition of new facilities
and
equipment.
If any facilities, equipment or diluents, or
any of the transportation methods and channels
that we
rely on become unavailable for any period of time,
we may incur increased costs to transport
our crude oil,
bitumen, natural gas, NGLs and LNG for sale or
we may be forced to curtail our production
of crude oil,
bitumen, natural gas or NGLs.
Our investments in joint ventures decrease
our ability to manage risk.
We conduct many of our operations through joint ventures in which we may share
control with our joint
venture partners.
There is a risk our joint venture participants may
at any time have economic, business or
legal interests or goals that are inconsistent with
those of the joint venture or us, or our joint
venture partners
may be unable to meet their economic or other
obligations and we may be required to
fulfill those obligations
alone.
Failure by us, or an entity in which we have
a joint venture interest, to adequately manage
the risks
associated with any operations, acquisitions or
dispositions could have a material adverse effect on the
financial condition or results of operations of our
joint ventures and, in turn, our business and operations.
We may not be able to successfully complete any disposition we elect to pursue.
From time to time, we may seek to divest portions
of our business or investments that
are not important to our
ongoing strategic objectives.
Any dispositions we undertake may involve numerous
risks and uncertainties,
any of which could adversely affect our results of operations
or financial condition.
In particular, we may not
be able to successfully complete any disposition
on a timeline or on terms acceptable
to us, if at all, whether
due to market conditions, regulatory challenges
or other concerns.
In addition, the reinvestment of capital
from disposition proceeds may not ultimately
yield investment returns in line with our internal
or external
expectations.
Any dispositions we pursue may also result in
disruption to other parts of our business,
including through the diversion of resources
and management attention from our ongoing
business and other
strategic matters, or through the disruption
of relationships with our employees and key
vendors.
Further, in
connection with any disposition, we may enter into
transition services agreements or undertake
indemnity or
other obligations that may result in additional
expenses for us.
We may also be required under applicable
accounting rules to recognize impairments
associated with any disposition we pursue,
whether or not
completed.
As part of our disposition strategy, on May 17, 2017, we completed the sale of
our 50 percent nonoperated
interest in the FCCL Partnership, as well as the
majority of our western Canada gas assets
to Cenovus Energy.
Consideration for the transaction included 208
million Cenovus Energy common shares.
We may not be able
to liquidate the shares issued to us by Cenovus
Energy at prices we deem acceptable, or at all.
Our operations present hazards and risks that
require significant and continuous oversight.
The scope and nature of our operations present
a variety of significant hazards and risks, including
operational
hazards and risks such as explosions, fires,
crude oil spills, severe weather, geological events, labor disputes,
armed hostilities, terrorist attacks, sabotage, civil
unrest or cyber attacks.
Our operations may also be
adversely affected by unavailability, interruptions or accidents involving services
or infrastructure required to
develop, produce, process or transport our production,
such as contract labor, drilling rigs, pipelines, railcars,
tankers, barges or other infrastructure.
Our operations are subject to the additional hazards
of pollution,
releases of toxic gas and other environmental hazards
and risks.
Offshore activities may pose incrementally
greater risks because of complex subsurface
conditions such as higher reservoir pressures,
water depths and
metocean conditions.
All such hazards could result in loss of human
life, significant property and equipment
damage, environmental pollution, impairment
of operations, substantial losses to us and damage to
our
reputation.
Further, our business and operations may be disrupted if
we do not respond, or are perceived not to
respond, in an appropriate manner to any of these hazards
and risks or any other major crisis or if
we are
unable to efficiently restore or replace affected operational
components and capacity.
Our technologies, systems and networks may be subject
to cyber attacks.
Our business, like others within the oil and gas
industry, has become increasingly dependent on digital
technologies, some of which are managed by third-party
service providers on whom we rely to
help us collect,
host or process information.
Among other activities, we rely on digital technology
to estimate oil and gas
reserves, process and record financial and operating
data, analyze seismic and drilling information
and
communicate with employees and third parties.
As a result, we face various cyber security
threats such as
attempts to gain unauthorized access to, or control
of, sensitive information about our operations
and our
employees, attempts to render our data or systems
(or those of third parties with whom we do
business)
corrupted or unusable, threats to the security
of our facilities and infrastructure as well
as those of third parties
with whom we do business and attempted cyber
terrorism.
In addition, computers control oil and gas production,
processing equipment and distribution
systems globally
and are necessary to deliver our production to market.
A disruption, failure or a cyber breach of these
operating systems, or of the networks and infrastructure
on which they rely, many of which are not owned or
operated by us, could damage critical production,
distribution or storage assets, delay or prevent delivery
to
markets or make it difficult or impossible to accurately
account for production and settle transactions.
Although we have experienced occasional breaches
of our cyber security, none of these breaches have had a
material effect on our business, operations or reputation.
As cyber attacks continue to evolve, we must
continually expend additional resources to continue
to modify or enhance our protective measures
or to
investigate and remediate any vulnerabilities
detected.
Our implementation of various procedures
and controls
to monitor and mitigate security threats
and to increase security for our information, facilities
and
infrastructure may result in increased costs.
Despite our ongoing investments in security
resources, talent and
business practices, we are unable to assure that
any security measures will be effective.
If our systems and infrastructure were to be breached,
damaged or disrupted, we could be subject to serious
negative consequences, including disruption of
our operations, damage to our reputation,
a loss of counterparty
trust, reimbursement or other costs, increased compliance
costs, significant litigation exposure and legal
liability or regulatory fines, penalties or intervention.
Any of these could materially and adversely affect our
business, results of operations or financial condition.
Although we have business continuity plans in
place, our
operations may be adversely affected by significant and
widespread disruption to our systems and
infrastructure that support our business.
While we continue to evolve and modify our
business continuity
plans, there can be no assurance that they will
be effective in avoiding disruption and business impacts.
Further, our insurance may not be adequate to compensate
us for all resulting losses, and the cost to obtain
adequate coverage may increase for us in the future.
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