Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE
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Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE
QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE
DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
The matters discussed in this Item may contain “forward-looking statements” as described in the introductory paragraphs under Part I., Item 2. MD&A in this report. The reader’s attention is directed to those paragraphs for discussion of various risks and uncertainties that may impact the Companies.
Market Risk Sensitive Instruments and Risk Management
The Companies’ financial instruments, commodity contracts and related financial derivative instruments are exposed to potential losses due to adverse changes in commodity prices, interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates and equity securities prices as described below. Commodity price risk is present in the Companies’ electric operations and Dominion Energy’s natural gas procurement and marketing operations due to the exposure to market shifts in prices received and paid for electricity, natural gas and other commodities. The Companies use commodity derivative contracts to manage price risk exposures for these operations. Interest rate risk is generally related to their outstanding debt and future issuances of debt. In addition, the Companies are exposed to investment price risk through various portfolios of equity and debt securities. The Companies’ exposure to foreign currency exchange rate risk is related to certain fixed price contracts associated with the CVOW Commercial Project which it manages through foreign currency exchange rate derivatives. The contracts include services denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar for approximately €2.6 billion and 5.1 billion kr. In addition, certain of the fixed price contracts, approximately €0.7 billion, contain commodity indexing provisions linked to steel.
The following sensitivity analysis estimates the potential loss of future earnings or fair value from market risk sensitive instruments over a selected time period due to a 10% change in commodity prices, interest rates or foreign currency exchange rates.
Commodity Price Risk
To manage price risk, the Companies hold commodity-based derivative instruments held for non-trading purposes associated with purchases and sales of electricity, natural gas and other energy-related products.
The derivatives used to manage commodity price risk are executed within established policies and procedures and may include instruments such as futures, forwards, swaps, options and FTRs that are sensitive to changes in the related commodity prices. For sensitivity analysis purposes, the hypothetical change in market prices of commodity-based derivative instruments is determined based on models that consider the market prices of commodities in future periods, the volatility of the market prices in each period, as well as the time value factors of the derivative instruments. Prices and volatility are principally determined based on observable market prices.
A hypothetical 10% increase in commodity prices would have resulted in a decrease of $22 million and $62 million in the fair value of Dominion Energy’s commodity-based derivative instruments as of September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
A hypothetical 10% decrease in commodity prices would have resulted in a decrease of $22 million and a hypothetical 10% increase in commodity prices would have resulted in a decrease of $24 million in the fair value of Virginia Power’s commodity-based derivative instruments as of September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
The impact of a change in energy commodity prices on the Companies’ commodity-based derivative instruments at a point in time is not necessarily representative of the results that will be realized when the contracts are ultimately settled. Net losses from commodity-based financial derivative instruments used for hedging purposes, to the extent realized, will generally be offset by recognition of the hedged transaction, such as revenue from physical sales of the commodity.
Interest Rate Risk
The Companies manage their interest rate risk exposure predominantly by maintaining a balance of fixed and variable rate debt. For variable rate debt outstanding for Dominion Energy, a hypothetical 10% increase in market interest rates would result in a $22 million and $56 million decrease in earnings at September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively. For variable rate debt outstanding for Virginia Power, a hypothetical 10% increase in market interest rates would result in an $7 million and $5 million decrease in earnings at September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
The Companies also use interest rate derivatives, including forward-starting swaps, interest rate swaps and interest rate lock agreements to manage interest rate risk. As of September 30, 2024, Dominion Energy and Virginia Power had $10.3 billion and $1.1 billion, respectively, in aggregate notional amounts of these interest rate derivatives outstanding. A hypothetical 10% decrease in market interest rates would have resulted in a decrease of $50 million and $49 million, respectively, in the fair value of Dominion Energy and Virginia Power’s interest rate derivatives at September 30, 2024. As of December 31, 2023, Dominion Energy and
Virginia Power had $16.3 billion and $3.3 billion, respectively, in aggregate notional amounts of these interest rate derivatives outstanding. A hypothetical 10% decrease in market interest rates would have resulted in a decrease of $120 million and $151 million, respectively, in the fair value of Dominion Energy and Virginia Power’s interest rate derivatives at December 31, 2023.
The impact of a change in interest rates on the Companies’ interest rate-based financial derivative instruments at a point in time is not necessarily representative of the results that will be realized when the contracts are ultimately settled. Net gains and/or losses from interest rate derivative instruments used for hedging purposes, to the extent realized, will generally be offset by recognition of the hedged transaction.
Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk
The Companies utilize foreign currency exchange rate swaps to economically hedge the foreign currency exchange risk associated with fixed price contracts related to the CVOW Commercial Project denominated in foreign currencies. As of September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, Dominion Energy had €1.5 billion and €2.1 billion, respectively, in aggregate notional amounts of these foreign currency forward purchase agreements outstanding. A hypothetical 10% increase in exchange rates would have resulted in a decrease of $147 million and $202 million in the fair value of Dominion Energy’s foreign currency swaps at September 30, 2024 and December 31, 2023, respectively.
The impact of a change in exchange rates on the Companies’ foreign currency-based financial derivative instruments at a point in time is not necessarily representative of the results that will be realized when the contracts are ultimately settled. Net gains and/or losses from foreign exchange derivative instruments used for hedging purposes, to the extent realized, will generally be offset by recognition of the hedged transaction.
Investment Price Risk
The Companies are subject to investment price risk due to securities held as investments in nuclear decommissioning and rabbi trust funds that are managed by third-party investment managers. These trust funds primarily hold marketable securities that are reported in the Companies’ Consolidated Balance Sheets at fair value.
Dominion Energy recognized net investment gains (including investment income) on nuclear decommissioning and rabbi trust investments of $1.0 billion, $409 million and $879 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023 and the year ended December 31, 2023, respectively. Net realized gains and losses include gains and losses from the sale of investments as well as any other-than-temporary declines in fair value. Dominion Energy recorded in AOCI and regulatory liabilities, a net increase in unrealized gains on debt investments of $41 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and $117 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, and a net decrease of $14 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2023.
Virginia Power recognized net investment gains (including investment income) on nuclear decommissioning and rabbi trust investments of $526 million, $206 million and $448 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and 2023 and the year ended December 31, 2023, respectively. Net realized gains and losses include gains and losses from the sale of investments as well as any other-than-temporary declines in fair value. Virginia Power recorded in AOCI and regulatory liabilities, a net increase in unrealized gains on debt investments of $25 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2024 and $66 million for the year ended December 31, 2023, and a net decrease of $8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2023.
Dominion Energy sponsors pension and other postretirement employee benefit plans that hold investments in trusts to fund employee benefit payments. Virginia Power employees participate in these plans. Differences between actual and expected returns on plan assets are accumulated and amortized during future periods. As such, any investment-related declines in these trusts will result in future increases in the net periodic cost recognized for such employee benefit plans and will be included in the determination of the amount of cash to be contributed to the employee benefit plans.
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