Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK.

(In Millions, Except As Otherwise Stated Herein)

As a result of our investing and borrowing activities, we are exposed to financial market risks, including those resulting from changes in interest rates and changes in market valuations. Potential impacts discussed below are based upon sensitivity analyses performed on our financial position as of December 31, 2020. Actual results could vary from these estimates. Our primary objectives with our investment portfolio are to provide safety and preservation of capital, sufficient liquidity to meet cash flow requirements, the integration of investment strategy with the business operations and an attainment of a competitive after-tax total return.

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Investments

Our investment portfolio is exposed to three primary sources of risk: credit quality risk, interest rate risk and market valuation risk.

The primary risks associated with our fixed maturity securities, which are classified as available-for-sale, are credit quality risk and interest rate risk. Credit quality risk is defined as the risk of a credit event, such as a ratings downgrade or default, to an individual fixed maturity security and the potential loss attributable to that event. Credit quality risk is managed through our investment policy, which establishes credit quality limitations on the overall portfolio as well as diversification and percentage limits on securities of individual issuers. The result is a well-diversified portfolio of fixed maturity securities, with an average credit rating of approximately “A.” Interest rate risk is defined as the potential for economic losses on fixed maturity securities due to a change in market interest rates. Our fixed maturity portfolio is invested primarily in U.S. government securities, corporate bonds, asset-backed bonds, mortgage-related securities and municipal bonds, all of which have exposure to changes in the level of market interest rates. Interest rate risk is managed by maintaining asset duration within a band based upon our liabilities, operating performance and liquidity needs. Additionally, we have the capability of holding any security to maturity, which would allow us to realize full par value.

Investments in fixed maturity securities include corporate securities, which account for 45.4% of our total fixed maturity securities at December 31, 2020 and are subject to credit/default risk. In a declining economic environment, corporate yields will usually increase, prompted by concern over the ability of corporations to make interest payments, thus causing a decrease in the price of corporate securities, and the decline in value of the corporate fixed maturity portfolio. We manage this risk through fundamental credit analysis, diversification of issuers and industries and an average credit rating of our corporate fixed maturity portfolio of approximately “BBB.”

Market risk for fixed maturity securities is addressed by actively managing the duration, allocation and diversification of our investment portfolio. We have evaluated the impact on the fixed maturity portfolio’s fair value considering an immediate 100 basis point change in interest rates. A 100 basis point increase in interest rates would result in an approximate $998 decrease in fair value, whereas a 100 basis point decrease in interest rates would result in an approximate $1,039 increase in fair value. While we classify our fixed maturity securities as “available-for-sale” for accounting purposes, we believe our cash flows and the duration of our portfolio should allow us to hold securities to maturity, thereby avoiding the recognition of losses should interest rates rise significantly.

Our equity portfolio is comprised of large capitalization and small capitalization domestic equities, foreign equities, exchange-traded funds and index mutual funds. Our equity portfolio is subject to the volatility inherent in the stock market, driven by concerns over economic conditions, earnings and sales growth, inflation, and consumer confidence. These systemic risks cannot be managed through diversification alone. However, more routine risks, such as stock/industry specific risks, are managed by investing in a diversified equity portfolio.

Our other invested assets, reported within our long-term investments, are primarily subject to private market exposures, including private equity, real estate, and private credit investments. These investments are also indirectly subject to market valuation risk, as public market valuations will form a basis for valuations for these investments. Given their illiquid nature, we focus on appropriate sizing of these investments relative to our liquidity needs and risk tolerance. Our risk tolerance is formed by the level of illiquidity and short-term price movements from market valuation risk we are willing to accept relative to the higher long-term expected returns over the life of these investments.

As of December 31, 2020, 6.1% of our marketable investments were equity securities. An immediate 10% decrease in each equity investment’s value, arising from market movement, would result in a fair value decrease of $156. Alternatively, an immediate 10% increase in each equity investment’s value, attributable to the same factor, would result in a fair value increase of $156.

For additional information regarding our investments, see Note 5, “Investments,” of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 and “Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates - Investments” within Part II, Item 7 “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations” included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K.

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Long-Term Debt

Our total long-term debt at December 31, 2020 consisted of senior unsecured notes, convertible debentures, commercial paper and subordinated surplus notes issued by one of our insurance subsidiaries. At December 31, 2020, the carrying value and estimated fair value of our long-term debt was $20,035 and $24,269, respectively. This debt is subject to interest rate risk, as these instruments have fixed interest rates and the fair value is affected by changes in market interest rates. Should interest rates increase or decrease in the future, the estimated fair value of our fixed rate debt would decrease or increase accordingly.

For additional information regarding our long-term debt, see Note 7, “Fair Value” and Note 13, “Debt,” of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.

Derivatives

We have exposure to economic losses due to interest rate risk arising from changes in the level or volatility of interest rates. We attempt to mitigate our exposure to interest rate risk through the use of derivative financial instruments. These strategies include the use of interest rate swaps and forward contracts, which are used to lock-in interest rates or to hedge (on an economic basis) interest rate risks associated with variable rate debt. We have used these types of instruments as designated hedges against specific liabilities.

Changes in interest rates will affect the estimated fair value of these derivatives. As of December 31, 2020, we recorded a net asset of $37, the estimated fair value of the swaps at that date. We have evaluated the impact on the interest rate swaps’ fair value considering an immediate 100 basis point change in interest rates. A 100 basis point increase in interest rates would result in an approximate $18 decrease in fair value, whereas a 100 basis point decrease in interest rates would result in an approximate $18 increase in fair value.

For additional information regarding our derivatives, see Note 6, “Derivative Financial Instruments” of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements included in Part II, Item 8 of this Annual Report on Form 10-K.

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