Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
29K characters. Original on sec.gov · Markdown
Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
The Registrants are exposed to market risks associated with adverse changes in commodity prices, counterparty credit, interest rates, and equity prices. Exelon manages these risks through risk management policies and objectives for risk assessment, control and valuation, counterparty credit approval, and the monitoring and reporting of risk exposures. Historically, reporting on risk management issues has been to Exelon’s Risk Management Committee, the Risk Management Committees of each Utility Registrant, and the Risk Committee of Exelon’s Board of Directors. After separation, reporting on risk management issues will be to Exelon’s Executive Committee, the Risk Management Committees of each Utility Registrant, and the Audit and Risk Committee of Exelon’s Board of Directors.
Commodity Price Risk (All Registrants)
Commodity price risk is associated with price movements resulting from changes in supply and demand, fuel costs, market liquidity, weather conditions, governmental regulatory and environmental policies, and other factors. To the extent the total amount of energy Exelon generates and purchases differs from the amount of energy it has contracted to sell, Exelon is exposed to market fluctuations in commodity prices. Exelon seeks to mitigate its commodity price risk through the sale and purchase of electricity, fossil fuel, and other commodities.
Generation
Electricity available from Generation’s owned or contracted generation supply in excess of Generation’s obligations to customers, including portions of the Utility Registrants' retail load, is sold into the wholesale markets. To reduce commodity price risk caused by market fluctuations, Generation enters into non-derivative contracts as well as derivative contracts, including swaps, futures, forwards, and options, with approved counterparties to hedge anticipated exposures. Generation uses derivative instruments as economic hedges to mitigate exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices. We expect the settlement of the majority of our economic hedges will occur during 2022 through 2024.
In general, increases and decreases in forward market prices have a positive and negative impact, respectively, on Generation’s owned and contracted generation positions which have not been hedged. For merchant revenues not already hedged via comprehensive state programs, such as the CMC in Illinois, we utilize a three-year ratable sales plan to align our hedging strategy with our financial objectives. The prompt three-year merchant revenues are hedged on an approximate rolling 90%/60%/30% basis. We may also enter transactions that are outside of this ratable hedging program.As of December 31, 2021, the percentage of expected generation hedged for the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, and ERCOT reportable segments is 92%-95% and 73%-76% for 2022 and 2023, respectively. The percentage of expected generation hedged is the amount of equivalent sales divided by the expected generation. Expected generation is the volume of energy that best represents our commodity position in energy markets from owned or contracted generation based upon a simulated dispatch model that makes assumptions regarding future market conditions, which are calibrated to market quotes for power, fuel, load following products and options. Equivalent sales represent all hedging products, which include economic hedges, CMC payments, and certain non-derivative contracts.
A portion of Generation’s hedging strategy may be accomplished with fuel products based on assumed correlations between power and fuel prices, which routinely change in the market. Market price risk exposure is the risk of a change in the value of unhedged positions. The forecasted market price risk exposure for Generation’s entire economic hedge portfolio associated with a $5/MWh reduction in the annual average around-the-clock energy price based on December 31, 2021 market conditions and hedged position would be a decrease in pre-tax net income of approximately $20 million and $243 million for 2022 and 2023, respectively. Power price sensitivities are derived by adjusting power price assumptions while keeping all other price inputs constant. Generation actively manages its portfolio to mitigate market price risk exposure for its unhedged position. Actual results could differ depending on the specific timing of, and markets affected by, price changes, as well as future changes in Generation’s portfolio. See Note 16 — Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
Fuel Procurement
Generation procures natural gas through long-term and short-term contracts, and spot-market purchases. Nuclear fuel assemblies are obtained predominantly through long-term uranium concentrate supply contracts, contracted conversion services, contracted enrichment services, or a combination thereof, and contracted fuel fabrication services. The supply markets for uranium concentrates and certain nuclear fuel services are subject to price fluctuations and availability restrictions. Supply market conditions may make Generation’s procurement contracts subject to credit risk related to the potential non-performance of counterparties to deliver the contracted commodity or service at the contracted prices.
Utility Registrants
ComEd entered into 20-year floating-to-fixed renewable energy swap contracts beginning in June 2012, which are considered an economic hedge and have changes in fair value recorded to an offsetting regulatory asset or liability. ComEd has block energy contracts to procure electric supply that are executed through a competitive procurement process, which are considered derivatives and qualify for NPNS, and as a result are accounted for on an accrual basis of accounting. PECO, BGE, Pepco, DPL, and ACE have contracts to procure electric supply that are executed through a competitive procurement process. BGE, Pepco, DPL, and ACE have certain full requirements contracts, which are considered derivatives and qualify for NPNS, and as a result are accounted for on an accrual basis of accounting. Other full requirements contracts are not derivatives.
PECO, BGE, and DPL also have executed derivative natural gas contracts, which either qualify for NPNS or have no mark-to-market balances because the derivatives are index priced, to hedge their long-term price risk in the natural gas market. The hedging programs for natural gas procurement have no direct impact on their financial statements. PECO, BGE, Pepco, DPL, and ACE do not execute derivatives for speculative purposes.
For additional information on these contracts, see Note 3 — Regulatory Matters and Note 16 — Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
Trading and Non-Trading Marketing Activities
The following table detailing Exelon’s (including Generation's) and ComEd’s trading and non-trading marketing activities is included to address the recommended disclosures by the energy industry’s Committee of Chief Risk Officers (CCRO).
The following table provides detail on changes in Exelon’s and ComEd’s commodity mark-to-market net asset or liability balance sheet position from December 31, 2019 to December 31, 2021. It indicates the drivers behind changes in the balance sheet amounts. This table incorporates the mark-to-market activities that are immediately recorded in earnings. This table excludes all NPNS contracts and does not segregate proprietary trading activity. See Note 16 — Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information on the balance sheet classification of the mark-to-market energy contract net assets (liabilities) recorded as of December 31, 2021 and 2020.
| Exelon | ComEd | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Balance as of December 31, 2019 | $ | 567 | (a) | $ | (301) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total change in fair value during 2020 of contracts recorded in result of operations | (203) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Reclassification to realized at settlement of contracts recorded in results of operations | 469 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Changes in allocated collateral | (513) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net option premium paid | 139 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Option premium amortization | (104) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upfront payments and amortizations(c) | 73 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Balance as of December 31, 2020 | 428 | (a) | (301) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total change in fair value during 2021 of contracts recorded in result of operations | 797 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Reclassification to realized at settlement of contracts recorded in results of operations | (228) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Changes in fair value—recorded through regulatory assets(b) | 82 | 82 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Changes in allocated collateral | 96 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net option premium paid | 338 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Option premium amortization | (125) | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Upfront payments and amortizations(c) | 15 | — | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Balance as of December 31, 2021 | $ | 1,403 | (a) | $ | (219) |
(a)Exelon's balance related to Generation is shown net of collateral paid to and received from counterparties.
(b)For ComEd, the changes in fair value are recorded as a change in regulatory assets. As of December 31, 2020 and 2021, ComEd recorded a regulatory asset of $301 million and $219 million, respectively, related to its mark-to-market derivative liabilities with unaffiliated suppliers. ComEd recorded $33 million of decreases in fair value and an increase for realized losses due to settlements of $33 million in purchased power expense associated with floating-to-fixed energy swap contracts with unaffiliated suppliers for the year ended December 31, 2020. ComEd recorded $62 million of increases in fair value and an increase for realized losses due to settlements of $20 million recorded in purchased power expense associated with floating-to-fixed energy swap contracts with unaffiliated suppliers for the year ended December 31, 2021.
(c)Includes derivative contracts acquired or sold by Generation through upfront payments or receipts of cash, excluding option premiums, and the associated amortizations.
Fair Values
The following tables present maturity and source of fair value for Exelon and ComEd mark-to-market commodity contract net assets (liabilities). The tables provide two fundamental pieces of information. First, the tables provide the source of fair value used in determining the carrying amount of Exelon's and ComEd's total mark-to-market net assets (liabilities), net of allocated collateral. Second, the tables show the maturity, by year, of Exelon's and ComEd's commodity contract net assets (liabilities), net of allocated collateral, giving an indication of when these mark-to-market amounts will settle and either generate or require cash. See Note 18 — Fair Value of Financial Assets and Liabilities of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information regarding fair value measurements and the fair value hierarchy.
Exelon
| Maturities Within | Total Fair Value | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 and Beyond | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Normal Operations, Commodity derivative contracts**(a)(b)(c)****:** | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Actively quoted prices (Level 1) | $ | 711 | $ | 66 | $ | 53 | $ | 43 | $ | 24 | $ | — | $ | 897 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Prices provided by external sources (Level 2) | 442 | 436 | (60) | 1 | — | — | 819 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Prices based on model or other valuation methods (Level 3)(d) | 19 | (93) | 2 | (15) | (45) | (181) | (313) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 1,172 | $ | 409 | $ | (5) | $ | 29 | $ | (21) | $ | (181) | $ | 1,403 |
(a)Exelon's maturity by year includes maturities related to Generation's mark-to-market contract net assets (liabilities).
(b)Mark-to-market gains and losses on other economic hedge and trading derivative contracts that are recorded in results of operations.
(c)Amounts are shown net of collateral paid/(received) from counterparties (and offset against mark-to-market assets and liabilities) of $512 million at December 31, 2021.
(d)Includes ComEd’s net assets (liabilities) associated with the floating-to-fixed energy swap contracts with unaffiliated suppliers.
ComEd
| Maturities Within | Total Fair Value | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 and Beyond | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commodity derivative contracts(a): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Prices based on model or other valuation methods (Level 3)(a) | $ | (18) | $ | (19) | $ | (21) | $ | (20) | $ | (21) | $ | (120) | $ | (219) |
(a)Represents ComEd’s net liabilities associated with the floating-to-fixed energy swap contracts with unaffiliated suppliers.
Credit Risk (All Registrants)
The Registrants would be exposed to credit-related losses in the event of non-performance by counterparties that execute derivative instruments. The credit exposure of derivative contracts, before collateral, is represented by the fair value of contracts at the reporting date. See Note 16—Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for a detailed discussion of credit risk.
Generation
The following tables provide information on Generation’s credit exposure for all derivative instruments, NPNS, and payables and receivables, net of collateral and instruments that are subject to master netting agreements, as of December 31, 2021. The tables further delineate that exposure by credit rating of the counterparties and provide guidance on the concentration of credit risk to individual counterparties and an indication of the duration of a company’s credit risk by credit rating of the counterparties. The figures in the table below exclude credit risk exposure from individual retail customers, uranium procurement contracts, and exposure through RTOs, ISOs, and commodity exchanges, which are discussed below.
| Rating as of December 31, 2021 | Total Exposure Before Credit Collateral | Credit Collateral**(a)** | Net Exposure | Number of Counterparties Greater than 10% of Net Exposure | Net Exposure of Counterparties Greater than 10% of Net Exposure | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | $ | 715 | $ | 176 | $ | 539 | 1 | $ | 106 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Non-investment grade | 13 | — | 13 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| No external ratings | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Internally rated—investment grade | 111 | — | 111 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Internally rated—non-investment grade | 226 | 47 | 179 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 1,065 | $ | 223 | $ | 842 | 1 | $ | 106 |
(a)As of December 31, 2021, credit collateral held from counterparties where Generation had credit exposure included $163 million of cash and $60 million of letters of credit.
| Maturity of Credit Risk Exposure | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rating as of December 31, 2021 | Less than 2 Years | 2-5 Years | Exposure Greater than 5 Years | Total Exposure Before Credit Collateral | |||||||||||||||||||
| Investment grade | $ | 605 | $ | 62 | $ | 48 | $ | 715 | |||||||||||||||
| Non-investment grade | 13 | — | — | 13 | |||||||||||||||||||
| No external ratings | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Internally rated—investment grade | 111 | — | — | 111 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Internally rated—non-investment grade | 181 | 39 | 6 | 226 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 910 | $ | 101 | $ | 54 | $ | 1,065 |
| Net Credit Exposure by Type of Counterparty | As of December 31, 2021 | ||||
| Financial institutions | $ | 32 | |||
| Investor-owned utilities, marketers, power producers | 711 | ||||
| Energy cooperatives and municipalities | 62 | ||||
| Other | 37 | ||||
| Total | $ | 842 |
The Utility Registrants
Credit risk for the Utility Registrants is governed by credit and collection policies, which are aligned with state regulatory requirements. The Utility Registrants are currently obligated to provide service to all electric customers within their franchised territories. The Utility Registrants record an allowance for credit losses on customer receivables, based upon historical loss experience, current conditions, and forward-looking risk factors, to provide for the potential loss from nonpayment by these customers. The Utility Registrants will monitor nonpayment from customers and will make any necessary adjustments to the allowance for credit losses on customer receivables. See Note 1 — Significant Accounting Policies of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for the allowance for credit losses policy. The Utility Registrants did not have any customers representing over 10% of their revenues as of December 31, 2021. See Note 3 — Regulatory Matters of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information regarding the regulatory recovery of credit losses on customer accounts receivable.
As of December 31, 2021, the Utility Registrants net credit exposure to suppliers was immaterial. See Note 16 — Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
Credit-Risk-Related Contingent Features (All Registrants)
Generation
As part of the normal course of business, Generation routinely enters into physical or financial contracts for the sale and purchase of electricity, natural gas, and other commodities. In accordance with the contracts and applicable law, if Generation is downgraded by a credit rating agency, especially if such downgrade is to a level below investment grade, it is possible that a counterparty would attempt to rely on such a downgrade as a basis for making a demand for adequate assurance of future performance. Depending on Generation’s net position with a counterparty, the demand could be for the posting of collateral. In the absence of expressly agreed-to provisions that specify the collateral that must be provided, collateral requested will be a function of the facts and circumstances of the situation at the time of the demand. See Note 16 — Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information regarding collateral requirements and Note 19 — Commitments and Contingencies of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information regarding the letters of credit supporting the cash collateral.
Generation transacts output through bilateral contracts. The bilateral contracts are subject to credit risk, which relates to the ability of counterparties to meet their contractual payment obligations. As market prices rise above or fall below contracted price levels, Generation is required to post collateral with purchasers; as market prices fall below contracted price levels, counterparties are required to post collateral with Generation. To post collateral, Generation depends on access to bank credit facilities, which serve as liquidity sources to fund collateral requirements. See ITEM 7. Liquidity and Capital Resources — Credit Matters — Exelon Credit Facilities for additional information.
The Utility Registrants
As of December 31, 2021, the Utility Registrants were not required to post collateral under their energy and/or natural gas procurement contracts. See Note 3 — Regulatory Matters and Note 16 — Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
RTOs and ISOs (All Registrants)
All Registrants participate in all, or some, of the established, wholesale spot energy markets that are administered by PJM, ISO-NE, NYISO, CAISO, MISO, SPP, AESO, OIESO, and ERCOT. ERCOT is not subject to regulation by FERC but performs a similar function in Texas to that performed by RTOs in markets regulated by FERC. In these areas, power is traded through bilateral agreements between buyers and sellers and on the spot energy markets that are administered by the RTOs or ISOs, as applicable. In areas where there is no spot energy market, electricity is purchased and sold solely through bilateral agreements. For sales into the spot markets administered by an RTO or ISO, the RTO or ISO maintains financial assurance policies that are established and enforced by those administrators. The credit policies of the RTOs and ISOs may, under certain circumstances, require that losses arising from the default of one member on spot energy market transactions be shared by the remaining participants. Non-performance or non-payment by a major counterparty could result in a material adverse impact on the Registrants’ financial statements. See Note 3 — Regulatory Matters of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information on the February 2021 extreme cold weather event and Texas-based generating asset outages.
Exchange Traded Transactions (Exelon, PHI, and DPL)
Generation enters into commodity transactions on NYMEX, ICE, NASDAQ, NGX, and the Nodal exchange ("the Exchanges"). DPL enters into commodity transactions on ICE. The Exchange clearinghouses act as the counterparty to each trade. Transactions on the Exchanges must adhere to comprehensive collateral and margining requirements. As a result, transactions on Exchanges are significantly collateralized and have limited counterparty credit risk.
Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Risk (Exelon)
Exelon and Generation use a combination of fixed-rate and variable-rate debt to manage interest rate exposure. Exelon and Generation may also utilize interest rate swaps to manage their interest rate exposure. A hypothetical 50 basis point increase in the interest rates associated with unhedged variable-rate debt (excluding Commercial Paper) and fixed-to-floating swaps would result in approximately a $2 million decrease in Exelon pre-tax income for the year ended December 31, 2021. To manage foreign exchange rate exposure associated with international energy purchases in currencies other than U.S. dollars, Generation utilizes foreign currency derivatives, which
are typically designated as economic hedges. See Note 16—Derivative Financial Instruments of the Combined Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements for additional information.
Equity Price Risk (Exelon)
Generation maintains trust funds, as required by the NRC, to fund certain costs of decommissioning its nuclear plants. Generation’s NDT funds are reflected at fair value in Exelon's Consolidated Balance Sheets. The mix of securities in the trust funds is designed to provide returns to be used to fund decommissioning and to compensate Generation for inflationary increases in decommissioning costs; however, the equity securities in the trust funds are exposed to price fluctuations in equity markets, and the value of fixed-rate, fixed-income securities are exposed to changes in interest rates. Generation actively monitors the investment performance of the trust funds and periodically reviews asset allocation in accordance with Generation’s NDT fund investment policy. A hypothetical 25 basis points increase in interest rates and 10% decrease in equity prices would result in a $892 million reduction in the fair value of the trust assets as of December 31, 2021. This calculation holds all other variables constant and assumes only the discussed changes in interest rates and equity prices. See Liquidity and Capital Resources section of ITEM 7. MANAGEMENT'S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS for additional information.
Previous: Item 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS · Next: Item 8. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTARY DATA