Item 1A. RISK FACTORS
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Item 1A. RISK FACTORS
In addition to the other information in this Form 10-K, the following factors should be considered in evaluating our business. Our operating results depend upon many factors and are subject to various risks and uncertainties. The material risks and uncertainties known to us which may cause the operating results to vary from anticipated results or which may negatively affect our operating results and profitability are as follows:
A downturn in the economy or in the principal markets served by us and other factors may affect customer spending, which could harm our operating results. In general, our sales represent spending on discretionary items or consumption needs by our customers. This spending is affected by many factors, including, among others:
| • | general business conditions, |
| • | business conditions in our principal markets, |
| • | interest rates, |
| • | inflation, |
| • | liquidity in credit markets, |
| • | taxation, |
| • | government regulations, |
| • | fuel prices and electrical power rates, |
| • | unemployment trends, |
| • | terrorist attacks and acts of war, |
| • | weather conditions, and |
| • | other matters that influence customer confidence and spending. |
A downturn in either the national or local economy where our stores operate, or in the principal markets served by us, or changes in any of the other factors described above, could negatively impact sales at our stores and their level of profitability.
This risk was demonstrated during the last several years. As the economic condition in North America weakened significantly in the fall of 2008 and into 2009, our customers, which operate principally in various manufacturing, non-residential construction, and services sectors, experienced a pronounced slowdown that adversely impacted our sales and operating results in those periods. A lag in these sectors, even as the general economy improves, could adversely impact our business.
Products that we sell may expose us to potential material liability for property damage, environmental damage, personal injury, or death linked to the use of those products by our customers. Some of our customers operate in challenging industries where there is a material risk of catastrophic events. If any of these events are linked to the use by our customers of any of our products, claims could be brought against us by those customers, by governmental authorities and by third parties who are injured or damaged as a result of such events. In addition, our reputation could be adversely affected by negative publicity surrounding such events regardless of whether or not claims against us are successful. While we maintain insurance coverage to mitigate a portion of this risk and may have recourse against our suppliers for losses arising out of defects in products procured from them, we could experience significant losses as a result of claims made against us to the extent adequate insurance is not in place, the products are manufactured by us, or legal recourse against our suppliers is otherwise not available, or our insurers or suppliers are unwilling or unable to satisfy their obligations to us.
Interruptions in the proper functioning of information systems could disrupt operations and cause unanticipated increases in costs and/or decreases in revenues. The proper functioning of our information systems is critical to the successful operation of our business. Although our information systems are protected with robust backup systems, including physical and software safeguards and remote processing capabilities, information systems are still vulnerable to natural disasters, power losses, unauthorized access, telecommunication failures, and other problems. If critical information systems fail or are otherwise unavailable, our ability to process orders, maintain proper levels of inventories, collect accounts receivable, pay expenses, and maintain the security of the Company and customer data could be adversely affected. Disruptions or failures of, or security breaches with respect to, our information technology infrastructure could have a negative impact on our operations.
We work hard to maintain the privacy and security of our customer and business information and the functioning of our computer systems and website. In the event of a security breach or other cyber security incident, we could experience certain operational problems or interruptions, incur substantial additional costs, or become subject to legal or regulatory proceedings, any of which could lead to damage to our reputation in the marketplace. The nature of our business requires us to receive, retain and transmit certain personally identifying information that our customers provide to purchase products or services, register on our websites, or otherwise communicate and interact with us. While we have taken and continue to undertake significant steps to protect our customer and confidential information and the functioning of our computer systems and website, a compromise of our data security systems or those of businesses we interact with could result in information related to our customers or business being obtained by unauthorized persons or other operational problems or interruptions. We
develop and update processes and maintain systems in an effort to try to prevent this from occurring, but the development and maintenance of these processes and systems is costly and requires ongoing monitoring and updating as technologies change and efforts to overcome security measures become more sophisticated. Consequently, despite our efforts, the possibility of intrusion, interruption of our business, cyber security incidents and theft cannot be eliminated entirely, and risks associated with each of these remain. While we also seek to obtain assurances that third parties we interact with will protect confidential information, there is a risk the confidentiality of data held or accessed by third parties may be compromised. If a compromise of our data security or function of our computer systems or website were to occur, it could have a material adverse effect on our operating results and financial condition and, possibly, subject us to additional legal, regulatory and operating costs, and damage our reputation in the marketplace.
Our current estimate for total store market potential in North America could be incorrect. One of our primary growth strategies is to grow our business through the introduction of stores into new and existing markets. Based on a snapshot of current marketplace demographics in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, we currently estimate there is potential market opportunity in North America to support approximately 3,500 stores. We cannot guarantee that our market potential estimates are accurate or that we will open stores to reach the full market opportunity. In addition, a particular local market’s ability to support a store may change because of a change in that market, a change in our store format, or the presence of a competitor’s store.
We may be unable to meet our goals regarding new store openings. Our growth is dependent primarily on our ability to attract new customers. Historically, the most effective way to attract new customers has been opening new stores. We expect to open new stores at the rate of approximately 2% to 3% in 2014; however, we cannot assure you that we can open stores at this rate, and failure to do so, could negatively impact our long-term growth. We opened stores at the rate of approximately 2%, 3%, and 5% in 2013, 2012, and 2011, respectively.
Our current business strategy, 'pathway-to-profit', which involves reducing our rate of new store openings and using the money saved to add sales personnel at a faster rate, while successful over the last several years, has not yet proven successful on a long-term basis. In April 2007, we introduced our 'pathway to profit' strategy. This strategy initially involved slowing our annual new store openings from our historical rate of 13% to 18% to approximately 7% to 10%. The funds saved by opening fewer stores would be invested in additional sales personnel, with the goal of increasing our average annual per store sales, capturing earnings leverage, and increasing our pre-tax earnings. At the time we introduced this strategy, we believed that, over the five year period from 2007 to 2012, we could grow our average store sales to $125 thousand per month and grow our pre-tax earnings as a percent of net sales from 18% to 23%. The economic weakness that dramatically worsened in the fall of 2008 and continued into 2009 caused us to alter this strategy during 2009 by slowing our annual new store openings to a range of approximately 2% to 5% and temporarily stopping headcount additions except at newly opened stores and stores that were growing. Because of this economic setback, we previously indicated that the time required to achieve our pre-tax earnings percentage goals for 'pathway to profit' could be delayed 24 to 30 months. More recently, we have indicated we believe we could hit our pre-tax earnings percentage goal with less than the $125 thousand per month figure. We now believe the pre-tax earnings goal might be accomplished with average store sales as low as $100 to $110 thousand per month due to the structural lowering of our costs. A more prolonged downturn in the economy than expected, the prospect of future economic deterioration, changes in the rate of new store openings, difficulty in successfully attracting and retaining qualified sales personnel, an inability to realize anticipated savings from lowering our cost structure, and failure to successfully change our selling process could further adversely impact our ability to grow average store sales, capture earnings leverage, and achieve desired pre-tax earnings results.
Changes in customer or product mix, downward pressure on sales prices, and changes in volume of orders could cause our gross profit percentage to fluctuate or decline in the future. Changes in our customer or product mix could cause our gross profit percentage to fluctuate or decline. From time to time, we have experienced changes in customer or product mix that have caused gross profit to deteriorate. For example, the growth of our national accounts since the mid-1990’s and of our non-fastener product line since the early 1990’s has adversely affected gross profit, as national accounts have the leverage to negotiate lower prices, and as our non-fastener products generally carry lower gross profit than our fastener products. If our customer or product mix continues to change, there can be no assurance that we will be able to maintain our historical gross profit. Downward pressure on sales prices and changes in the volume of our orders could also cause our gross profit percentage to fluctuate or decline. Gross profit can deteriorate if we experience downward pressure on sales prices as a result of deflation, pressures from customers to reduce costs, or increased competition, as was the case in 2009 and the latter half of 2013. Furthermore, reductions in our volume of purchases, as also happened in 2009 and the latter half of 2013, can adversely impact gross profit by reducing supplier volume allowances.
Opening stores in new markets presents increased risks that may prevent us from being profitable in these new locations. We intend to open stores in new markets pursuant to our growth strategy. New stores do not typically achieve operating results comparable to our existing stores until after several years of operation, and stores in new markets face additional challenges to achieving profitability. A new store generates its sales from direct sales calls, a slow process involving repeated contacts. In
new markets, we have less familiarity with local customer preferences and customers in these markets are less familiar with our name and capabilities. In addition, entry into new markets may bring us into competition with new, unfamiliar competitors. We cannot assure success in operating our stores in new markets on a profitable basis.
New store openings may negatively impact our operating results. While new stores build the infrastructure for future growth, the first year sales in new stores are low, and the added expenses relating to payroll, occupancy, and transportation costs can impact our ability to leverage earnings. It has been our experience that new stores take at least ten to twelve months to achieve profitability. We cannot assure you that we will be successful in operating our new stores on a profitable basis.
The ability to identify new products and product lines, and integrate them into our store and distribution network, may impact our ability to compete and our sales and margins. Our success depends in part on our ability to develop product expertise at the store level and identify future products and product lines that complement existing products and product lines and that respond to our customers’ needs. We may not be able to compete effectively unless our product selection keeps up with trends in the markets in which we compete or trends in new products. In addition, our ability to integrate new products and product lines into our stores and distribution network could impact sales and margins.
Increases in energy costs and the cost of raw materials used in our products could impact our cost of goods and distribution and occupancy expenses, which may result in lower operating margins. Costs of raw materials used in our products (e.g., steel) and energy costs have fluctuated during the last several years. Increases in these costs result in increased production costs for our vendors. These vendors typically look to pass their increased costs along to us through price increases. The fuel costs of our distribution and store operations have fluctuated as well. While we typically try to pass increased vendor prices and fuel costs through to our customers or to modify our activities to mitigate the impact, we may not be successful. Failure to fully pass any such increased prices and costs through to our customers or to modify our activities to mitigate the impact would have an adverse effect on our operating margins.
Our ability to successfully attract and retain qualified personnel to staff our stores could impact labor costs, sales at existing stores, and the rate of new store openings. Our success depends in part on our ability to attract, motivate, and retain a sufficient number of qualified employees, including store managers, outside sales personnel, and other store associates, who understand and appreciate our culture and are able to adequately represent this culture to our customers. Qualified individuals of the requisite caliber and number needed to fill these positions may be in short supply in some areas, and the turnover rate in the industry is high. If we are unable to hire and retain personnel capable of consistently providing a high level of customer service, as demonstrated by their enthusiasm for our culture and product knowledge, our sales could be materially adversely affected. Additionally, competition for qualified employees could require us to pay higher wages to attract a sufficient number of employees. An inability to recruit and retain a sufficient number of qualified individuals in the future may also delay the planned openings of new stores. Any such delays, material increases in employee turnover rates at existing stores, or increases in labor costs, could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or operating results.
Inclement weather and other disruptions to the transportation network could impact our distribution system and adversely impact demand for our products. Our ability to provide efficient distribution of core business products to our store network is an integral component of our overall business strategy. Disruptions at distribution centers or shipping ports, due to events such as the hurricanes of 2005 and 2012 and the longshoreman’s strike on the West Coast in 2002, may affect our ability to both maintain core products in inventory and deliver products to our customers on a timely basis, which may in turn adversely affect our results of operations. In addition, severe weather conditions could adversely affect demand for our products in particularly hard hit regions.
We are exposed to foreign currency exchange rate risk, and changes in foreign exchange rates could increase our costs to procure products and our foreign sales. Because the functional currency related to most of our foreign operations is the applicable local currency, we are exposed to foreign currency exchange rate risk arising from transactions in the normal course of business. Fluctuations in the relative strength of foreign economies and their related currencies could impact our ability to procure products overseas at competitive prices and our foreign sales. Our primary exchange rate exposure is with the Canadian dollar.
We may not be able to compete effectively against our competitors, which could harm our business and operating results. The industrial, construction, and maintenance supply industry, although consolidating, still remains a large, fragmented industry that is highly competitive. Our current or future competitors may include companies with similar or greater market presence, name recognition, and financial, marketing, and other resources, and we believe they will continue to challenge us with their product selection, financial resources, and services. Increased competition in markets in which we have stores or the adoption by competitors of aggressive pricing strategies and sales methods could cause us to lose market share or reduce our prices or increase our spending, thus eroding our margins.
Our revenues and net income may be adversely affected by economic conditions, political situations, and changing laws and regulations, over which we have no control. We obtain certain of our products, and our suppliers obtain certain of their products, from China, Taiwan, South Korea, Mexico, and other foreign countries. Our suppliers could discontinue selling products manufactured in foreign countries at any time for reasons that may or may not be in our control or our suppliers' control, including foreign government regulations, domestic government regulations, political unrest, war, disruption or delays in shipments, changes in local economic conditions or trade issues. Our operating results and inventory levels could suffer if we are unable to promptly replace a supplier who is unwilling or unable to satisfy our requirements with another supplier providing equally appealing products.
Our business may be adversely affected by political gridlock in the United States. We primarily operate in the United States. During the last several years there has been significant fiscal uncertainty in the country, the resolution of which has been impeded by political gridlock. We believe this has adversely impacted our business and could negatively impact our business in the future.
Our FAST Solutions® (industrial vending) business is new, and our competitive advantage could be eliminated. We believe we have a competitive advantage due to our industrial vending platform (hardware and software), our local store presence, our 'vendible' product depth, and, in North America, our distribution strength. These advantages have developed over time; however, other competitors could respond to our rapidly expanding industrial vending business with highly competitive platforms of their own. These alternative solutions could negatively impact our ability to expand our business and/or negatively impact the economics of the industrial vending business.
The industrial, construction, and maintenance supply industry is consolidating, which could cause it to become more competitive and could negatively impact our business. The industrial, construction, and maintenance supply industry in North America is consolidating. This consolidation is being driven by customer needs and supplier capabilities, which could cause the industry to become more competitive as greater economies of scale are achieved by suppliers, or as competitors with new business models are willing and able to operate with lower gross profit on select products. Customers are increasingly aware of the total costs of fulfillment and of the need to have consistent sources of supply at multiple locations. We believe these customer needs could result in fewer suppliers as the remaining suppliers become larger and capable of being a consistent source of supply.
There can be no assurance we will be able in the future to take advantage effectively of the trend toward consolidation. The trend in our industry toward consolidation could make it more difficult for us to maintain our current gross and operating margins. Furthermore, as our industrial and construction customers face increased foreign competition, and potentially lose business to foreign competitors or shift their operations overseas in an effort to reduce expenses, we may face increased difficulty in growing and maintaining our market share.
We will need to begin disclosing our use of 'conflict minerals' in certain of the products we distribute, which will impose costs on us and could raise reputational and other risks. The SEC has promulgated final rules in connection with the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, regarding disclosure of the use of certain minerals, known as 'conflict minerals', that are mined from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and adjoining countries. These new rules have required and will continue to require due diligence efforts, with initial disclosure requirements becoming effective in May 2014. There are and will continue to be costs associated with complying with these disclosure requirements, including costs to determine which of our products are subject to the new rules and the source of any 'conflict minerals' used in those products. In addition, the implementation of these rules could adversely affect the sourcing, supply, and pricing of materials used in those products. Also, we may face reputational challenges if we are unable to verify the origins for all metals used in products through the procedures we may implement. We may also encounter challenges to satisfy customers that may require all of the components of products purchased to be certified as conflict free. If we are not able to meet customer requirements, customers may choose to disqualify us as a supplier.
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