Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Our earnings and financial position are exposed to financial market risk, including those resulting from changes in interest rates.
The level of our pretax earnings is subject to market risk due to changes in interest rates and the resulting impact on investment income and interest expense. We have entered into interest-rate swap agreements with major financial institutions to convert our interest-rate exposure on some of our senior notes payable from fixed rates to variable rates, based on Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), to align interest costs more closely with floating interest rates received on our cash equivalents and investment securities Under the revolving credit agreements, at our option, we can borrow on either a competitive advance basis or a revolving credit basis. The revolving credit portion bears interest at either Term SOFR or the base rate plus a spread. The competitive advance portion of any borrowings will bear interest at market rates prevailing at the time of borrowing on either a fixed rate or a floating rate based on Term SOFR, at our option. There were no borrowings outstanding under our credit agreements at December 31, 2025 or December 31, 2024.
Interest rate risk also represents a market risk factor affecting our consolidated financial position due to our significant investment portfolio, consisting primarily of fixed maturity securities of investment-grade quality with a weighted average S&P credit rating of AA- at December 31, 2025. Our net unrealized loss position decreased $562
million from a net unrealized loss position of $1.4 billion at December 31, 2024 to a net unrealized loss position of $0.8 billion at December 31, 2025. At December 31, 2025, we had gross unrealized losses of $0.9 billion on our investment portfolio primarily due to an increase in market interest rates since the time the securities were purchased. We did not record any material credit allowances for debt securities that were in an unrealized loss position during 2025 and 2024. While we believe that these impairments will be recovered and we currently do not have the intent to sell such securities, given the current market conditions and the significant judgments involved, there is a continuing risk that future declines in fair value may occur and material realized losses from sales or credit loss impairments may be recorded in future periods.
Duration is the time-weighted average of the present value of the bond portfolio’s cash flow. Duration is indicative of the relationship between changes in fair value and changes in interest rates, providing a general indication of the sensitivity of the fair values of our fixed maturity securities to changes in interest rates. However, actual fair values may differ significantly from estimates based on duration. The average duration of our investment portfolio, including cash and cash equivalents, was approximately 3.6 years as of December 31, 2025 and 3.8 years as of December 31, 2024. Based on the duration including cash equivalents, a 1% increase in interest rates would generally decrease the December 31, 2025 fair value of our securities by approximately $723 million.
We have also evaluated the impact on our investment income and interest expense resulting from a hypothetical change in interest rates of 100, 200, and 300 basis points over the next twelve-month period, as reflected in the following table. The evaluation was based on our investment portfolio, outstanding indebtedness, and outstanding swap contract portfolio at December 31, 2025 and 2024. Our investment portfolio consists of cash, cash equivalents, and investment securities. The modeling technique used to calculate the pro forma net change in pretax earnings considered the cash flows related to fixed income investments and debt, which are subject to interest rate changes during a prospective twelve-month period. This evaluation measures parallel shifts in interest rates and may not account for certain unpredictable events that may affect interest income, including unexpected changes of cash flows into and out of the portfolio, changes in the asset allocation, including shifts between taxable and tax-exempt securities, spread changes specific to various investment categories and the mix of short-term versus long-term debt. In the past ten years, changes in 10 year US treasury rates during the year have not exceeded 300 basis points, have changed between 200 and 300 basis points one time, have changed between 100 and 200 basis points five times, and have changed by less than 100 basis points four times.
| Increase (decrease) in pretax earnings given an interest rate decrease of X basis points | Increase (decrease) in pretax earnings given an interest rate increase of X basis points | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (300) | (200) | (100) | 100 | 200 | 300 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| As of December 31, 2025 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income (a) | $ | (286) | $ | (196) | $ | (97) | $ | 98 | $ | 196 | $ | 294 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense (b) | 195 | 130 | 65 | (65) | (130) | (195) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pretax | $ | (91) | $ | (66) | $ | (32) | $ | 33 | $ | 66 | $ | 99 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| As of December 31, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Investment income (a) | $ | (322) | $ | (210) | $ | (105) | $ | 106 | $ | 207 | $ | 308 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Interest expense (b) | 123 | 82 | 41 | (41) | (82) | (123) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pretax | $ | (199) | $ | (128) | $ | (64) | $ | 65 | $ | 125 | $ | 185 |
(a)As of December 31, 2025 and 2024, none of our investments had interest rates below 1%.
(b)The interest rate under our senior notes, which represents 100% at December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively, of total debt, is fixed, unaffected by changes in interest rates. We did not have any variable rate term loans at December 31, 2025 and December 31, 2024. There were no borrowings outstanding under the credit agreement at December 31, 2025 or December 31, 2024. There were no commercial paper outstanding under our commercial paper program at December 31, 2025 or December 31, 2024.
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