Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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We are exposed to various market risks. Our exposures to market risks arise from assumptions built into our pricing models, equity price risk, foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations related to our international operations, changes in interest rates which impact our variable-rate debt obligations, if any, and risks relating to the extension of margin credit to our customers.
Market risk refers to the risk that a change in the level of one or more market prices, rates, indices, implied volatilities (the price volatility of the underlying instrument imputed from option prices), correlations or other market factors, such as market liquidity, will result in losses for a position or portfolio. Generally, we incur trading-related market risk as a result of activities in the market making segment, where the substantial majority of our Value-at-Risk ("VaR") for market risk exposures is generated. In addition, we incur non-trading-related market risk primarily from investment activities and from foreign currency exposure held in the equity of our foreign affiliates, i.e., our non-U.S. brokerage affiliates and information technology affiliates, and held to meet target balances in our currency diversification strategy.
We use various risk management tools in managing our market risk, which are embedded in our real-time market making systems. We employ certain hedging and risk management techniques to protect us from a severe market dislocation. Our risk management policies are developed and implemented by our Chairman and our steering committee, which is comprised of senior executives of our various companies. Our strategy is to calculate quotes a few seconds ahead of the market and execute small trades at a tiny but favorable differential as a result. This is made possible by our proprietary pricing model, which evaluates and monitors the risks inherent in our portfolio, assimilates external market data and reevaluates the outstanding quotes in our portfolio many times per second. Our model automatically rebalances our positions throughout each trading day to manage risk exposures on our options and futures positions and the underlying securities, and will price the increased risk that a position would add to the overall portfolio into the bid and offer prices we post. Under risk management policies implemented and monitored primarily through our computer systems, reports to management, including risk profiles, profit and loss analysis and trading performance, are prepared on a real-time basis as well as daily and periodical bases. Although our market making is completely automated, the trading process and our risk are monitored by a team of individuals who, in real time, observe various risk parameters of our consolidated positions. Our assets and liabilities are marked-to-market daily for financial reporting purposes and re-valued continuously throughout the trading day for risk management and asset/liability management purposes.
We use a covariant VaR methodology to measure, monitor and review the market risk of our market making portfolios, with the exception of fixed income products, and our currency exposures. The risk of fixed income products, which comprise primarily U.S. government securities, is measured using a stress test.
Pricing Model Exposure
As described above, our proprietary pricing model, which continuously evaluates and monitors the risks inherent in our portfolio, assimilates external market data and reevaluates the outstanding quotes in our entire portfolio many times per second. Certain aspects of the model rely on historical prices of securities. If the behavior of price movements of individual securities diverges substantially from what their historical behavior would predict, we might incur trading losses. We attempt to limit such risks by diversifying our portfolio across many different options, futures and underlying securities and avoiding concentrations of positions based on the same underlying security. Historically, our losses from these events have been immaterial in comparison to our annual trading profits.
Foreign Currency Exposure
As a result of our international market making activities and accumulated earnings in our foreign subsidiaries, our income and net worth is exposed to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates. For example, our European operations and some of our Asian operations are conducted by our Swiss subsidiary, THE. THE is regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority as a securities dealer and its financial statements are presented in Swiss francs. Accordingly, THE is exposed to certain foreign exchange risks as described below:
THE buys and sells futures contracts and securities denominated in various currencies and carries bank balances and borrows and lends such currencies in its regular course of business. At the end of each accounting period, THE's assets and liabilities are revalued into Swiss francs for presentation in its financial statements. The resulting foreign currency gains or losses are reported in THE's income statement and, as translated into U.S. dollars for U.S. GAAP purposes, in our consolidated statement of comprehensive income, as a component of other income.
THE's financial statements are presented in Swiss francs (i.e., its functional currency) as noted above. At the end of each accounting period, THE's net worth is translated at the then prevailing exchange rate into U.S. dollars and the resulting translation gain or loss is reported as OCI in our consolidated statement of financial condition and consolidated statement of comprehensive income. OCI is also produced by our other non-U.S. subsidiaries.
Historically, we have taken the approach of not hedging the above exposures, based on the notion that the cost of constantly hedging over the years would amount to more than the random impact of rate changes on our non-U.S. dollar balances. For instance, an increase in the value of the Swiss franc would be unfavorable to the earnings of THE but would be counterbalanced to some extent by the fact that the translation gain or loss into U.S. dollars is likely to move in the opposite direction.
Our market making systems incorporate cash forex to hedge our currency exposure at little or no cost throughout each day on a continuous basis. The majority of currency spot positions held as part of our currency diversification strategy are regularly transferred from the market making segment to the parent holding company, IBG LLC, where they are held and reported in the corporate segment. In connection with the development of our currency diversification strategy, we determined to base our net worth in GLOBALs, a basket of currencies.
Because we conduct business in many countries and many currencies and because we consider ourselves a global enterprise based in a diversified basket of currencies rather than a U.S. dollar based company, we actively manage our global currency exposure by maintaining our equity in GLOBALs. The U.S. dollar value of the GLOBAL increased from $0.949 to $0.978, or 3.06%, as of December 31, 2017 compared to December 31, 2016. As of December 31, 2017, approximately 30% of our equity was denominated in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
The table below shows a comparison of the U.S. dollar equivalent of the GLOBAL as of December 31, 2017 and 2016.
| As of 12/31/2016 | As of 12/31/2017 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Currency | Composition | FX Rate | GLOBAL in USD Equiv. | % of Comp. | Net Equity (in USD millions) | New Composition | FX Rate | GLOBAL in USD Equiv. | % of Comp. | Net Equity (in USD millions) | CHANGE in % of Comp. | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| USD | 0.45 | 1.0000 | 0.450 | 47.4 | % | $ | 2,759 | 0.68 | 1.0000 | 0.680 | 69.5 | % | $ | 4,471 | 22.1 | % | ||||||||||||||||||
| EUR | 0.17 | 1.0519 | 0.179 | 18.8 | % | 1,096 | 0.09 | 1.1998 | 0.108 | 11.0 | % | 710 | –7.8 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| JPY | 8.00 | 0.0086 | 0.068 | 7.2 | % | 420 | 4.41 | 0.0089 | 0.039 | 4.0 | % | 257 | –3.2 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| GBP | 0.03 | 1.2341 | 0.037 | 3.9 | % | 227 | 0.02 | 1.3514 | 0.027 | 2.8 | % | 178 | –1.1 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| HKD | 0.26 | 0.1290 | 0.034 | 3.5 | % | 206 | 0.14 | 0.1280 | 0.018 | 1.8 | % | 118 | –1.7 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| INR | 2.00 | 0.0147 | 0.029 | 3.1 | % | 180 | 1.10 | 0.0157 | 0.017 | 1.8 | % | 113 | –1.3 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| CHF | 0.03 | 0.9819 | 0.029 | 3.1 | % | 181 | 0.02 | 1.0263 | 0.021 | 2.1 | % | 135 | –1.0 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| CAD | 0.04 | 0.7445 | 0.030 | 3.1 | % | 183 | 0.02 | 0.7950 | 0.016 | 1.6 | % | 105 | –1.5 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| CNH | 0.19 | 0.1434 | 0.027 | 2.9 | % | 167 | 0.10 | 0.1535 | 0.015 | 1.6 | % | 101 | –1.3 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| AUD | 0.03 | 0.7216 | 0.022 | 2.3 | % | 133 | 0.02 | 0.7802 | 0.016 | 1.6 | % | 103 | –0.7 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| MXN | 0.30 | 0.0482 | 0.014 | 1.5 | % | 89 | 0.17 | 0.0509 | 0.009 | 0.9 | % | 57 | –0.6 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| SEK | 0.09 | 0.1098 | 0.010 | 1.0 | % | 61 | 0.05 | 0.1219 | 0.006 | 0.6 | % | 40 | –0.4 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| SGD | 0.01 | 0.6905 | 0.007 | 0.7 | % | 42 | 0.00 | –0.7 | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NOK | 0.06 | 0.1158 | 0.007 | 0.7 | % | 43 | 0.03 | 0.1218 | 0.004 | 0.4 | % | 24 | –0.4 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
| DKK | 0.04 | 0.1416 | 0.006 | 0.6 | % | 35 | 0.02 | 0.1612 | 0.003 | 0.3 | % | 21 | –0.3 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||
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| 0.949 | 100.0 | % | $ | 5,820 | 0.978 | 100.0 | % | $ | 6,433 | 0.0 | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
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Changes in the Composition of the "GLOBAL"
In light of our decision to discontinue our options market making activities globally, we removed the Singapore dollar (SGD) and realigned the relative weights of the U.S. dollar (USD) versus the other currency components to better reflect our businesses going forward. The new composition contains 14 currencies, one fewer than the prior composition. The new composition was effective as of the close of business on March 31, 2017.
The effects of our currency diversification strategy appear in two places in the consolidated financial statements: (1) as a component of other income in the consolidated statement of comprehensive income and (2) as OCI in the consolidated statement of financial condition and the consolidated statement of comprehensive income. The full effect of the GLOBAL is captured in the consolidated statement of comprehensive income.
Reported results on a comprehensive basis reflect the U.S. GAAP convention that requires the reporting of currency translation results contained in OCI as part of reportable earnings.
Interest Rate Risk
We had no variable-rate debt outstanding as of December 31, 2017.
We pay our electronic brokerage customers interest based on benchmark overnight interest rates in various currencies, on balances above $10 thousand, or equivalent, and on accounts holding more than $100 thousand (or equivalent) net asset value. In a normal rate environment, we typically invest a portion of these funds in U.S. government securities with maturities of up to two years. If interest rates were to increase rapidly and substantially, our net interest income would not increase proportionally with the interest rates for the portion of the funds invested in the U.S. government securities with fixed yields. In addition, the mark-to-market changes in the value of these fixed rate securities will be reflected in other income, instead of net interest income. Based on customer balances and investments outstanding as of December 31, 2017, and assuming reinvestment of maturing instruments in instruments of short-term duration, an increase of 0.25% over current U.S. dollar interest rate levels would increase our net interest income by approximately $11 million over the first year and $15 million on an annualized basis, assuming the full effect of reinvestment at higher rates. Our interest rate sensitivity estimate has been updated to separate assumptions for U.S. dollar rates from other currencies' rates and to isolate the effects of a rate increase on reinvestments. We do not approximate mark-to-market impact from interest rate changes; if U.S. government securities whose prices were to fall under these scenarios were held to maturity, as intended, then the reduction in other income would be temporary, as the securities would mature at par value.
We also face the potential for reduced net interest income from customer deposits due to interest rate spread compression in a low rate environment. Based on customer balances and investments outstanding as of December 31, 2017, and assuming reinvestment of maturing instruments in instruments of short-term duration, a decrease in U.S. dollar interest rates of 0.25% would decrease our net interest income by approximately $7 million over the first year and $16 million on an annualized basis, assuming the full effect of reinvestment at lower rates.
We also face substantial interest rate risk due to positions carried in our market making business to the extent that long or short stock positions may have been established for future or forward dates on options or futures contracts and the value of such positions are impacted by interest rates. The amount of such risk cannot be quantified, however, the reduction of market making positions has substantially reduced this exposure.
Dividend Risk
We face dividend risk in our market making business as we derive significant revenues and incur significant expenses in the form of dividend income and expense, respectively, from our inventory of equity securities, and must make significant payments in lieu of dividends on short positions in equity securities within our portfolio. Projected future dividends are an important component of pricing equity options and other derivatives, and incorrect projections may lead to trading losses. The amount of such risk cannot be quantified.
Margin Loans
We extend margin loans to our customers, which are subject to various regulatory requirements. Margin loans are collateralized by cash and securities in the customers' accounts. The risks associated with margin credit increase during periods of fast market movements or in cases where collateral is concentrated and market movements occur. During such times, customers who utilize margin loans and who have collateralized their obligations with securities may find that the securities have a rapidly depreciating value and may not be sufficient to cover their obligations in the event of a liquidation. We are also exposed to credit risk when our customers execute transactions, such as short sales of options and equities that can expose them to risk beyond their invested capital.
We expect this kind of exposure to increase with the growth of our overall business. Because we indemnify and hold harmless our clearing firms from certain liabilities or claims, the use of margin loans and short sales may expose us to significant off-balance-sheet risk in the event that collateral requirements are not sufficient to fully cover losses that customers may incur and those customers fail to satisfy their obligations. As of December 31, 2017, we had $29.8 billion in margin loans extended to our customers. The amount of risk to which we are exposed from the margin loans we extend to our customers and from short sale transactions by our customers is unlimited and not quantifiable as the risk is dependent upon analysis of a potential significant and undeterminable rise or fall in stock prices. Our account level margin requirements meet or exceed those required by Regulation T of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and SEC portfolio margin rules, as applicable. As a matter of practice, we enforce real-time margin compliance monitoring and liquidate customers' positions if their equity falls below required margin requirements.
We have a comprehensive policy implemented in accordance with regulatory standards to assess and monitor the suitability of investors to engage in various trading activities. To mitigate our risk, we also continuously monitor customer accounts to detect excessive concentration, large orders or positions, patterns of day trading and other activities that indicate increased risk to us.
Our credit exposure is to a great extent mitigated by our policy of automatically evaluating each account throughout the trading day and closing out positions automatically for accounts that are found to be under-margined. While this methodology is effective in most situations, it may not be effective in situations where no liquid market exists for the relevant securities or commodities or where, for any reason, automatic liquidation for certain accounts has been disabled.
Value-at-Risk
We estimate VaR using an historical approach, which uses the historical daily price returns of underlying assets as well as estimates of the end of day implied volatility for options. Our one-day VaR is defined as the unrealized loss in portfolio value that, based on historically observed market risk factors, would have been exceeded with a frequency of one percent, based on a calculation with a confidence interval of 99%.
Our VaR model generally takes into account exposures to equity and commodity price risk and foreign exchange rates.
We use VaR as one of a range of risk management tools. Among their benefits, VaR models permit estimation of a portfolio's aggregate market risk exposure, incorporating a range of varied market risks and portfolio assets. One key element of the VaR model is that it reflects risk reduction due to portfolio diversification or hedging activities. However, VaR has various strengths and limitations, which include, but are not limited to: use of historical changes in market risk factors, which may not be accurate predictors of future market conditions, and may not fully incorporate the risk of extreme market events that are outsized relative to observed historical market behavior or reflect the historical distribution of results beyond the confidence interval; and reporting of losses in a single day, which
does not reflect the risk of positions that cannot be liquidated or hedged in one day. A small proportion of market risk generated by trading positions is not included in VaR. The modeling of the risk characteristics of some positions relies on approximations that, under certain circumstances, could produce significantly different results from those produced using more precise measures. VaR is most appropriate as a risk measure for trading positions in liquid financial markets and will understate the risk associated with severe events, such as periods of extreme illiquidity.
The VaR calculation simulates the performance of the portfolio based on several years of the daily price changes of the underlying assets and determines the VaR as the calculated loss that occurs at the 99th percentile.
Since the reported VaR statistics are estimates based on historical data, VaR should not be viewed as predictive of our future revenues or financial performance or of our ability to monitor and manage risk. There can be no assurance that our actual losses on a particular day will not exceed the indicated VaR or that such losses will not occur more than one time in 100 trading days. VaR does not predict the magnitude of losses which, should they occur, may be significantly greater than the VaR amount.
Stress Test
We estimate the market risk of our fixed income portfolio using a risk analysis model provided by a leading external vendor. For corporate bonds, this stress test is configured to calculate the change in value of each fixed income security in the portfolio over one day in seven scenarios each of which represents a parallel shift of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The scenarios are shifts of +/–100, +/–200 and +/–300 basis points. For U.S. government securities, the stress test is configured to calculate the change in value of each fixed income security in the portfolio over one day in three scenarios each of which represents a parallel shift of the U.S. Treasury yield curve. The scenarios are shifts of +/–25 basis points.
VaR and Stress Test Measures
| Market Risk Category | At December 31, 2017 | At December 31, 2016 | Average 2017 | High 2017 | |||||||||
| (in millions) | |||||||||||||
| Trading(1) | |||||||||||||
| Equities and Currencies(2) | $ | 7 | $ | 7 | $ | 7 | $ | 8 | |||||
| Fixed Income(3) | — | — | — | — | |||||||||
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Trading Total | $ | 7 | $ | 7 | $ | 7 | $ | 8 | |||||
| Non-Trading(1) | |||||||||||||
| Equities and Currencies | $ | 13 | $ | 22 | $ | 13 | $ | 13 | |||||
| Fixed Income, Other(4) | 8 | 11 | 8 | 12 | |||||||||
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| Non-Trading Total | $ | 21 | $ | 33 | $ | 21 | $ | 25 |
(1)
The product categories displayed in the table as "Trading" reflect activities undertaken in the Company's market making segment. The "Non-trading" category reflects investment activities and foreign currency exposures held in the equity of the Company's non-market making affiliates, i.e., its brokerage affiliates and information technology affiliates. This category also includes corporate segment activities in foreign exchange designed to achieve the Company's currency diversification strategy.
The average and high VaR and stress test amounts are based on the four quarter ending calculations performed in 2017.
(2)
Equities and currencies held for market making purposes are combined because these products are part of an integrated, hedged market making portfolio, on which the risk is measured using VaR.
(3)
The Trading—Fixed Income category contains primarily foreign government securities held in connection with market making activities and a small value of corporate bonds. The risks on these products were managed separately and measured using the stress test analysis.
(4)
The Non-Trading—Fixed Income, Other category contains primarily U.S. government securities held in segregated safekeeping accounts for the exclusive benefit of our brokerage customers, on which the risk is measured using a stress test analysis.
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