Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.
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Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.
Generally, our market risk sensitive instruments and positions have been determined to be “other than trading.” Our exposure to market risk as discussed below includes forward-looking statements and represents an estimate of possible changes in fair value or future earnings that would occur assuming hypothetical future movements in energy commodity prices or interest rates. Our views on market risk are not necessarily indicative of actual results that may occur and do not represent the maximum possible gains and losses that may occur, since actual gains and losses will differ from those estimated based on actual fluctuations in energy commodity prices or interest rates and the timing of transactions.
Energy Commodity Market Risk
We are exposed to energy commodity market risk and other external risks in the ordinary course of business. However, we manage these risks by executing a hedging strategy that seeks to protect us financially against adverse price movements and serves to minimize potential losses. Our strategy involves the use of certain energy commodity derivative contracts to reduce and minimize the risks associated with unfavorable changes in the market price of crude oil, natural gas and NGL. The derivative contracts that we use include exchange-traded and OTC commodity financial instruments, including, but not limited to, futures and options contracts, fixed price swaps and basis swaps. We may categorize such use of energy commodity derivative contracts as cash flow hedges because the derivative contract is used to hedge the anticipated future cash flow of a transaction that is expected to occur but which value is uncertain.
Our hedging strategy involves entering into a financial position intended to offset our physical position, or anticipated position, in order to minimize the risk of financial loss from an adverse price change. For example, as sellers of crude oil, natural gas and NGL, we often enter into fixed price swaps and/or futures contracts to guarantee or lock-in the sale price of our crude oil or the margin from the sale and purchase of our natural gas at the time of market delivery, thereby in whole or in part offsetting any change in prices, either positive or negative. Using derivative contracts for this purpose helps provide increased certainty with regard to operating cash flows which helps us to undertake further capital improvement projects, attain budget results and meet dividend targets.
Our policies require that derivative contracts are only entered into with carefully selected major financial institutions or similar counterparties based upon their credit ratings and other factors, and we maintain strict dollar and term limits that correspond to our counterparties’ credit ratings. While it is our policy to enter into derivative transactions principally with investment grade counterparties and actively monitor their credit ratings, it is nevertheless possible that losses will result from counterparty credit risk in the future.
The credit ratings of the primary parties from whom we transact in energy commodity derivative contracts (based on contract market values) are as follows (credit ratings per Standard & Poor’s Rating Service):
| Credit Rating | |
| ING | A+ |
| Citibank | A+ |
| Wells Fargo | A+ |
| Macquarie | A+ |
| Societe Generale | A |
We measure the risk of price changes in the derivative instrument portfolios utilizing a sensitivity analysis model. The sensitivity analysis applied to each portfolio measures the potential income or loss (i.e., the change in fair value of the derivative instrument portfolio) based upon a hypothetical 10% movement in the underlying quoted market prices. In addition to these variables, the fair value of each portfolio is influenced by fluctuations in the notional amounts of the instruments and the discount rates used to determine the present values. Because we enter into derivative contracts largely for the purpose of mitigating the risks that accompany certain of our business activities, both in the sensitivity analysis model and in reality, the change in the market value of the derivative contracts’ portfolio is offset largely by changes in the value of the underlying physical transactions. A hypothetical 10% movement in the underlying commodity prices would have the following effect on the associated derivative contracts’ estimated fair value (in millions):
| As of December 31, | ||||||||
| Commodity derivative | 2019 | 2018 | ||||||
| Crude oil | $ | 113 | $ | 97 | ||||
| Natural gas | 8 | 12 | ||||||
| NGL | 7 | 6 | ||||||
| Total | $ | 128 | $ | 115 |
Our sensitivity analysis represents an estimate of the reasonably possible gains and losses that would be recognized on the crude oil, natural gas and NGL portfolios of derivative contracts assuming hypothetical movements in future market rates and is not necessarily indicative of actual results that may occur. It does not represent the maximum possible loss or any expected loss that may occur, since actual future gains and losses will differ from those estimated. Actual gains and losses may differ from estimates due to actual fluctuations in market rates, operating exposures and the timing thereof, as well as changes in our portfolio of derivatives during the year.
Interest Rate Risk
In order to maintain a cost effective capital structure, it is our policy to borrow funds using a mix of fixed rate debt and variable rate debt. The market risk inherent in our debt instruments and positions is the potential change arising from increases or decreases in interest rates as discussed below.
For fixed rate debt, changes in interest rates generally affect the fair value of the debt instrument, but not our earnings or cash flows. Conversely, for variable rate debt, changes in interest rates generally do not impact the fair value of the debt instrument, but may affect our future earnings and cash flows. Generally, there is not an obligation to prepay fixed rate debt prior to maturity and, as a result, changes in fair value should not have a significant impact on the fixed rate debt. We are generally subject to interest rate risk upon refinancing maturing debt. Below are our debt balances, including debt fair value adjustments and the preferred interest in KMP held by KMGP that was redeemed on January 15, 2020, and sensitivity to interest rates (in millions):
| December 31, 2019 | December 31, 2018 | ||||||||||||||
| Carrying value | Estimated fair value(c) | Carrying value | Estimated fair value(c) | ||||||||||||
| Fixed rate debt(a) | $ | 33,943 | $ | 37,588 | $ | 36,480 | $ | 36,647 | |||||||
| Variable rate debt | $ | 449 | $ | 428 | $ | 844 | $ | 822 | |||||||
| Notional principal amount of variable-to-fixed interest rate swap agreements | (250 | ) | — | ||||||||||||
| Notional principal amount of fixed-to-variable interest rate swap agreements | 8,725 | 10,575 | |||||||||||||
| Debt balances subject to variable interest rates(b) | $ | 8,924 | $ | 11,419 |
| (a) | A hypothetical 10% change in the average interest rates applicable to such debt as of December 31, 2019 and 2018, would result in changes of approximately $1,548 million and $1,638 million, respectively, in the fair values of these instruments. |
| (b) | A hypothetical 10% change in the weighted average interest rate on all of our borrowings (approximately 53 and 52 basis points, respectively, in 2019 and 2018) when applied to our outstanding balance of variable rate debt as of December 31, 2019 and 2018, including adjustments for the notional swap amounts described above, would result in changes of approximately $47 million and $59 million, respectively, in our 2019 and 2018 annual pre-tax earnings. |
| (c) | Fair values were determined using Level 2 inputs. |
Fixed-to-variable interest rate swap agreements are entered into for the purpose of converting a portion of the underlying cash flows related to long-term fixed rate debt securities into variable rate debt in order to achieve our desired mix of fixed and variable rate debt. Since the fair value of fixed rate debt varies with changes in the market rate of interest, swap agreements are entered into to receive a fixed and pay a variable rate of interest. Such swap agreements result in future cash flows that vary with the market rate of interest, and therefore hedge against changes in the fair value of the fixed rate debt due to market rate changes.
We monitor the mix of fixed rate and variable rate debt obligations in light of changing market conditions and from time to time, may alter that mix by, for example, refinancing outstanding balances of variable rate debt with fixed rate debt (or vice versa) or by entering into interest rate swap agreements or other interest rate hedging agreements. As of December 31, 2019, including debt converted to variable rates through the use of interest rate swaps but excluding our debt fair value adjustments, approximately 27% of our debt balances were subject to variable interest rates.
For more information on our interest rate risk management and on our interest rate swap agreements, see Note 14 “Risk Management” to our consolidated financial statements.
LIBOR Phase Out
Amounts drawn under our revolving credit facility may bear interest rates in relation to LIBOR, depending on our selection of repayment options, and certain of our outstanding interest rate swap agreements have a floating interest rate in relation to one-month LIBOR or three-month LIBOR. In July 2017, the Financial Conduct Authority in the U.K. announced a desire to phase out LIBOR as a benchmark by the end of 2021. The Alternative Reference Rates Committee, a steering committee consisting of large U.S. financial institutions convened by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, has recommended replacing LIBOR with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), a new index supported by short-term Treasury repurchase agreements. Although there have been some transactions utilizing SOFR, it is unknown whether this alternative reference rate will attain market acceptance as a replacement for LIBOR. The agreement governing our revolving credit facility includes provisions to determine a replacement rate for LIBOR if necessary during its term, which require that we and our lenders agree upon a replacement rate based on the then-prevailing market convention for similar agreements. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association is developing parameters for replacement rates that
would apply upon cessation of LIBOR and has indicated plans to publish a protocol to enable market participants to include the replacement rates in existing swap agreements.
We currently do not expect the transition from LIBOR to have a material impact on us. However, if clear market standards and replacement methodologies have not developed as of the time LIBOR becomes unavailable, we may have difficulty reaching agreement on acceptable replacement rates under our revolving credit facility and our interest rate swap agreements. If we are unable to negotiate replacement rates on favorable terms, it could have a material adverse effect on our earnings and cash flows.
Foreign Currency Risk
As of December 31, 2019, we had a notional principal amount of $1,358 million of cross-currency swap agreements that effectively convert all of our fixed-rate Euro denominated debt, including annual interest payments and the payment of principal at maturity, to U.S. dollar denominated debt at fixed rates. These swaps eliminate the foreign currency risk associated with our foreign currency denominated debt.
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