Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
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Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations
The following discussion and analysis summarizes the significant factors affecting our consolidated operating results, financial condition, liquidity and capital resources during the three-year period ended February 3, 2017 (our fiscal years 2016, 2015 and 2014). Fiscal year 2016 contains 53 weeks of operating results compared to fiscal years 2015 and 2014 which contain 52 weeks. Unless otherwise noted, all references herein for the years 2016, 2015 and 2014 represent the fiscal years ended February 3, 2017, January 29, 2016 and January 30, 2015, respectively. We intend for this discussion to provide the reader with information that will assist in understanding our financial statements, the changes in certain key items in those financial statements from year to year, and the primary factors that accounted for those changes, as well as how certain accounting principles affect our financial statements. This discussion should be read in conjunction with our consolidated financial statements and notes to the consolidated financial statements included in this Annual Report that have been prepared in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America. This discussion and analysis is presented in six sections:
| • | Executive Overview |
| • | Operations |
| • | Financial Condition, Liquidity and Capital Resources |
| • | Off-Balance Sheet Arrangements |
| • | Contractual Obligations and Commercial Commitments |
| • | Critical Accounting Policies and Estimates |
EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW
Net sales for 2016 were $65.0 billion, a 10.1% increase over fiscal year 2015. The increase in total sales was driven by an increase in comparable sales, the acquisition of RONA in May 2016, the 53rd week, and new stores. Comparable sales increased 4.2%, driven by a comparable average ticket increase of 2.5% and a comparable transaction increase of 1.6%. The addition of RONA and the 53rd week contributed 3.8% and 1.6%, respectively, to the sales growth for 2016. Net earnings increased 21.5% to $3.1 billion. Diluted earnings per common share increased 27.1% in fiscal year 2016 to $3.47 from $2.73 in 2015. Adjusting 2016 and 2015 amounts for certain significant discrete items not originally contemplated in the business outlooks for those respective years, adjusted diluted earnings per common share increased 21.3% in fiscal year 2016 to $3.99 from $3.29 in 2015 (see discussion on non-GAAP financial measures beginning on page 22).
For 2016, cash flows from operating activities were approximately $5.6 billion, with $1.2 billion used for capital expenditures. Continuing to deliver on our commitment to return excess cash to shareholders, the Company repurchased 46.7 million shares of stock through the share repurchase program for $3.5 billion and paid $1.1 billion in dividends during the year.
Throughout 2016, we remained committed to our key priorities including differentiating ourselves with better customer experiences and improving our product and service offering for the Pro customer. In addition, we continued to enhance our omni-channel experiences, driving customer engagement by delivering convenience, inspiration, expertise, and efficiency across the most relevant moments of the customer’s project journey.
We continued to leverage our larger store formats and expertise in customer experience design to create product sets to inspire customers to envision a variety of possibilities in their own homes. Our customer experience design work is rooted in research around customers’ expectations and how they think about home improvement projects. Whether it is showcasing a series of kitchen vignettes to highlight all the design elements of a kitchen remodel, or a smaller project, such as a bathroom lighting upgrade, we simplify presentation by grouping fixtures by style and collection in order to provide a cohesive decorating solution. By providing an integrated assortment of products, inspiring and intuitive presentation and display, and optimal service components across all selling channels, we are able to provide better customer experiences that differentiate us in the marketplace.
We remained committed to building upon our strong foundation with the Pro customer by continuing to advance our product and service offerings to meet their unique needs. Throughout the year, we made improvements to inventory depth, national and local brand assortment, and the strength of our service offering through the use of our Account Executive ProServices teams. We enhanced features and functionality of LowesForPros.com, which provides an e-commerce platform where the Pro customer can develop requisition lists, access purchase history, create custom catalogs, and simplify online ordering, saving time and allowing them to run their business more efficiently.
We continued to enhance our omni-channel capabilities during the year. We upgraded the Lowes.com shopping experience with improved product content and search functionality inclusive of upgrades such as refined search algorithms, expanded
content recommendations, improved click-to-chat capabilities, larger images, and expanded product views, and video content. We have built an array of tools to help our customers visualize their projects and bring them to life, displaying project ideas on Pinterest, Facebook, and our own channels on Apple TV, Fire TV, and Roku in addition to lowes.com and YouTube. During 2016, we completed the national rollout of our interior project specialist program. Both interior and exterior project specialists are now available across all U.S. home improvement stores to meet with customers in their homes to design, plan, and complete their home improvement projects. This in-home selling program, which is a critical element of our omni-channel strategy, represents a differentiated capability in capturing and serving customers’ interior and exterior project demand.
During the second quarter of 2016, we also completed our acquisition of RONA, one of Canada’s largest retailers and distributors of hardware, building materials, home renovation, and gardening products. The acquisition enables the Company to accelerate its growth strategy in the Canadian home improvement market, and we continued to make progress on the integration of RONA in the second half of the year. We remain focused on three critical factors to enable us to enhance our competitiveness and profitability in Canada and position us to capitalize on the long-term potential of the market. These include enhancing customer relevance, expanding customer reach by serving a new portion of the market, and driving increased profitability by leveraging our shared supplier relationships, enhanced scale, and private-label brand capabilities while eliminating RONA’s public company costs.
Looking Forward
Economic forecasts for 2017 suggest the outlook for the home improvement industry remains favorable as the economy continues to be led by growth in consumer spending. The home improvement industry is poised to grow its share of wallet as a percent of overall consumer spending, given sustained home price recovery and continued job and income gains. In addition, consumer balance sheets are strong as debt service ratios are near record lows and access to credit is gradually improving. Along with stronger incomes and rising home prices, we believe stronger household financial conditions will support discretionary home improvement spending. These macro factors should continue to contribute to household formation, which will sustain home buying and related spending as homeowners upgrade and refresh their homes.
In 2017, we look to build upon our strong foundation to better serve the needs of a rapidly changing customer and capitalize on a favorable macroeconomic backdrop. We are focused on three strategic objectives to drive value for our customers and shareholders. First, we are dedicated to expanding the reach of home improvement and driving profitable share gains. We are working to serve more customers - DIY, DIFM, and Pro - more effectively and differentiate ourselves by establishing market leadership for home improvement project solutions. Second, we are further adapting to an evolving customer, developing capabilities to anticipate and support their needs. We are empowering customers across the most relevant moments of their project journey, and we are advancing our customer service experience capabilities through our omni-channel assets. Finally, we are committed to generating long-term profitable growth and substantial returns for shareholders. By enhancing our operating discipline and focus, we are making productivity a core strength for Lowe’s. This commitment will drive focus and prioritization, allowing for investment in future capabilities to grow the business, maintain our leadership position, and drive value for shareholders.
OPERATIONS
The following tables set forth the percentage relationship to net sales of each line item of the consolidated statements of earnings, as well as the percentage change in dollar amounts from the prior year. This table should be read in conjunction with the following discussion and analysis and the consolidated financial statements, including the related notes to the consolidated financial statements.
| Basis Point Increase / (Decrease) in Percentage of Net Sales from Prior Year1 | Percentage Increase / (Decrease) in Dollar Amounts from Prior Year1 | ||||||||
| 2016 | 2015 | 2016 vs. 2015 | 2016 vs. 2015 | ||||||
| Net sales | 100.00% | 100.00% | N/A | 10.1 | % | ||||
| Gross margin | 34.55 | 34.82 | (27 | ) | 9.2 | ||||
| Expenses: | |||||||||
| Selling, general and administrative | 23.27 | 23.88 | (61 | ) | 7.2 | ||||
| Depreciation and amortization | 2.29 | 2.53 | (24 | ) | (0.3 | ) | |||
| Operating income | 8.99 | 8.41 | 58 | 17.6 | |||||
| Interest - net | 0.99 | 0.93 | 6 | 16.9 | |||||
| Pre-tax earnings | 8.00 | 7.48 | 52 | 17.7 | |||||
| Income tax provision | 3.24 | 3.17 | 7 | 12.6 | |||||
| Net earnings | 4.76% | 4.31% | 45 | 21.5 | % | ||||
| Basis Point Increase / (Decrease) in Percentage of Net Sales from Prior Year | Percentage Increase / (Decrease) in Dollar Amounts from Prior Year | ||||||||
| 2015 | 2014 | 2015 vs. 2014 | 2015 vs. 2014 | ||||||
| Net sales | 100.00% | 100.00% | N/A | 5.1 | % | ||||
| Gross margin | 34.82 | 34.79 | 3 | 5.2 | |||||
| Expenses: | |||||||||
| Selling, general and administrative | 23.88 | 23.60 | 28 | 6.3 | |||||
| Depreciation and amortization | 2.53 | 2.66 | (13 | ) | — | ||||
| Operating income | 8.41 | 8.53 | (12 | ) | 3.7 | ||||
| Interest - net | 0.93 | 0.92 | 1 | 7.0 | |||||
| Pre-tax earnings | 7.48 | 7.61 | (13 | ) | 3.3 | ||||
| Income tax provision | 3.17 | 2.81 | 36 | 18.6 | |||||
| Net earnings | 4.31% | 4.80% | (49 | ) | (5.6 | )% |
| Other Metrics | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | ||||||||
| Comparable sales increase 2 | 4.2 | % | 4.8 | % | 4.3 | % | |||||
| Total customer transactions (in millions) 1 | 945 | 878 | 857 | ||||||||
| Average ticket 3 | $ | 68.82 | $ | 67.26 | $ | 65.61 | |||||
| At end of year: | |||||||||||
| Number of stores 4 | 2,129 | 1,857 | 1,840 | ||||||||
| Sales floor square feet (in millions) | 213 | 202 | 201 | ||||||||
| Average store size selling square feet (in thousands) 5 | 100 | 109 | 109 | ||||||||
| Return on average assets 6 | 8.9 | % | 7.8 | % | 8.2 | % | |||||
| Return on average shareholders’ equity 7 | 44.4 | % | 28.8 | % | 24.4 | % | |||||
| Return on invested capital 8 | 15.8 | % | 14.1 | % | 13.9 | % |
| 1 | The fiscal year ended February 3, 2017 had 53 weeks. The fiscal years ended January 29, 2016 and January 30, 2015 had 52 weeks. |
| 2 | A comparable location is defined as a location that has been open longer than 13 months. A location that is identified for relocation is no longer considered comparable one month prior to its relocation. The relocated location must then remain open longer than 13 months to be considered comparable. A location we have decided to close is no longer considered comparable as of the beginning of the month in which we announce its closing. Acquired locations are included in the comparable sales calculation beginning in the first full month following the first anniversary of the date of the acquisition. Comparable sales include online sales, which did not have a meaningful impact for the periods presented. The comparable store sales calculation for 2016 included in the preceding table was calculated using sales for a comparable 53-week period. |
| 3 | Average ticket is defined as net sales divided by the total number of customer transactions. |
| 4 | The number of stores as of February 3, 2017 includes 245 stores acquired in the acquisition of RONA. |
| 5 | Average store size selling square feet is defined as sales floor square feet divided by the number of stores open at the end of the period. The average Lowe’s-branded home improvement store has approximately 112,000 square feet of retail selling space. |
| 6 | Return on average assets is defined as net earnings divided by average total assets for the last five quarters. |
| 7 | Return on average shareholders’ equity is defined as net earnings divided by average shareholders’ equity for the last five quarters. |
| 8 | Return on invested capital is a non-GAAP financial measure. See below for additional information and a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measure. |
Non-GAAP Financial Measures
Return on Invested Capital
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is a non-GAAP financial measure. We believe ROIC is a meaningful metric for investors because it represents management’s measure of how effectively the Company is using capital to generate profits.
We define ROIC as trailing four quarters’ net operating profit after tax divided by the average of ending debt and equity for the last five quarters. Although ROIC is a common financial metric, numerous methods exist for calculating ROIC. Accordingly, the method used by our management to calculate ROIC may differ from the methods other companies use to calculate their ROIC. We encourage you to understand the methods used by another company to calculate its ROIC before comparing its ROIC to ours.
We consider return on average debt and equity to be the financial measure computed in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles that is the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure to ROIC. The difference between these two measures is that ROIC adjusts net earnings to exclude tax adjusted interest expense.
The calculation of ROIC, together with a reconciliation to the calculation of return on average debt and equity, the most comparable GAAP financial measure, is as follows:
| (In millions, except percentage data) | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | ||||||||
| Calculation of Return on Invested Capital | |||||||||||
| Numerator | |||||||||||
| Net earnings | $ | 3,093 | $ | 2,546 | $ | 2,698 | |||||
| Plus: | |||||||||||
| Interest expense - net | 645 | 552 | 516 | ||||||||
| Provision for income taxes | 2,108 | 1,873 | 1,578 | ||||||||
| Earnings before interest and taxes | 5,846 | 4,971 | 4,792 | ||||||||
| Less: | |||||||||||
| Income tax adjustment 1 | 2,370 | 2,058 | 1,769 | ||||||||
| Net operating profit after tax | $ | 3,476 | $ | 2,913 | $ | 3,024 | |||||
| Effective tax rate | 40.5 | % | 42.4 | % | 36.9 | % | |||||
| Denominator | |||||||||||
| Average debt and equity 2 | $ | 21,958 | $ | 20,693 | $ | 21,744 | |||||
| Return on invested capital | 15.8 | % | 14.1 | % | 13.9 | % | |||||
| Calculation of Return on Average Debt and Equity | |||||||||||
| Numerator | |||||||||||
| Net earnings | $ | 3,093 | $ | 2,546 | $ | 2,698 | |||||
| Denominator | |||||||||||
| Average debt and equity 2 | $ | 21,958 | $ | 20,693 | $ | 21,744 | |||||
| Return on average debt and equity | 14.1 | % | 12.3 | % | 12.4 | % |
| 1 | Income tax adjustment is defined as earnings before interest and taxes multiplied by the effective tax rate. |
| 2 | Average debt and equity is defined as average debt, including current maturities and short-term borrowings, plus total equity for the last five quarters. |
Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share
To provide additional transparency, the Company has presented non-GAAP financial measures of adjusted diluted earnings per share to exclude the impact of certain discrete items not contemplated in Lowe’s 2016 and 2015 business outlooks. The Company believes this non-GAAP financial measure provides useful insight for analysts and investors in evaluating what management considers the Company’s core financial performance.
Adjusted diluted earnings per share should not be considered an alternative to, or more meaningful indicator of, the Company’s diluted earnings per common share as prepared in accordance with GAAP. The Company’s methods of determining this non-GAAP financial measure may differ from the method used by other companies for this or similar non-GAAP financial measures. Accordingly, these non-GAAP measures may not be comparable to the measures used by other companies.
| 2016 | 2015 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Pre-Tax Earnings | Tax | Net Earnings | Pre-Tax Earnings | Tax | Net Earnings | ||||||||||||||
| Diluted earnings per share, as reported | $ | 3.47 | $ | 2.73 | |||||||||||||||
| Non-GAAP Adjustments - per share impacts | |||||||||||||||||||
| Severance-related costs 1 | 0.09 | (0.03 | ) | 0.06 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||
| IRC Section 987 charge 2 | — | 0.04 | 0.04 | — | — | — | |||||||||||||
| Premium paid to acquire noncontrolling interest 3 | — | — | 0.02 | — | — | — | |||||||||||||
| Net gain on foreign currency hedge 4 | (0.09 | ) | 0.04 | (0.05 | ) | — | — | — | |||||||||||
| Australian joint venture impairment 5 | 0.33 | — | 0.33 | 0.56 | — | 0.56 | |||||||||||||
| Project write-offs 6 | 0.11 | (0.04 | ) | 0.07 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||
| Orchard Supply Hardware goodwill and long-lived asset impairment 7 | 0.08 | (0.03 | ) | 0.05 | — | — | — | ||||||||||||
| Adjusted diluted earnings per share | $ | 3.99 | $ | 3.29 | |||||||||||||||
| 1 | Represents the costs associated with the Company’s organizational changes in the stores, distribution centers, and corporate offices. |
| 2 | Represents tax charge primarily related to the passage of Internal Revenue Code Section 987 regulations in 2016. |
| 3 | Represents the premium paid to RONA’s preferred shareholders. Under the two-class method, the premium paid was deducted from net earnings to compute net earnings allocable to common shareholders. |
| 4 | Represents the net settlement of a foreign currency hedge entered into in advance of the Company’s acquisition of RONA during 2016. |
| 5 | Represents impairment charges related to the Company’s Australian joint venture with Woolworths. |
| 6 | Represents charges recognized in 2016 for projects canceled as a part of the Company’s ongoing review of strategic initiatives. |
| 7 | Represents impairment charges associated with the Company’s Orchard Supply Hardware operations as part of a strategic reassessment of this business during 2016. |
Fiscal 2016 Compared to Fiscal 2015
For the purpose of the following discussion, comparable store sales, comparable store average ticket and comparable store customer transactions are based upon comparable 53-week periods.
Net sales – Net sales increased 10.1% to $65.0 billion in 2016. The increase in total sales was driven by an increase in comparable sales, the addition of RONA, the 53rd week, and new stores. The addition of RONA and the 53rd week contributed 3.8% and 1.6%, respectively, to the sales growth for 2016. The comparable sales increase of 4.2% in 2016 was driven by a 2.5% increase in comparable average ticket and a 1.6% increase in comparable customer transactions. Comparable sales during each quarter of the fiscal year, as reported, were 7.3% in the first quarter, 2.0% in the second quarter, 2.7% in the third quarter, and 5.1% in the fourth quarter.
All of our product categories experienced comparable sales increases for the year. During 2016, we experienced comparable sales increases above the company average in Lumber & Building Materials, Appliances, Tools & Hardware, and Lawn & Garden. Performance in Lumber & Building Materials and Tools & Hardware was driven by strong demand from the Pro customer. Tools & Hardware also benefited from customers’ positive response to our continued enhancements in product assortment and brand relevance. Strong brand and service advantages in Appliances, as well as our continued investment in customer experience both in-store and online, drove solid comparable sales during the year. An extended outdoor selling season as a result of favorable weather conditions, positively impacted sales within Lawn & Garden. Geographically, all of our 14 U.S. regions experienced increases in comparable store sales, with the strongest results in the South and Northwest.
During the fourth quarter of 2016, we experienced comparable sales increases in 12 of 13 product categories, with comparable sales increases above the company average in Appliances, Lawn & Garden, Kitchens, Lumber & Building Materials, and Rough Plumbing & Electrical. We experienced low single-digit negative comparable sales in Outdoor Power Equipment. Strong brand and service advantages in Appliances as well as our successful Holiday events drove solid comparable sales during the quarter. Performance in Kitchens was driven by our strategy to focus on the entire Kitchen project, investment in project specialists, and targeted promotions. We experienced strength in several outdoor project categories, including Lawn & Garden, Lumber & Building Materials, and Rough Plumbing & Electrical. Warmer weather, particularly in the South and West, drove strong demand for outdoor projects in Lawn & Garden. Lumber & Building Materials benefited from continued recovery efforts from Hurricane Matthew and Louisiana flooding, as well as strong performance with the Pro customer. Performance in Outdoor Power Equipment was primarily driven by strong performance of winter-weather related products,
such as snow throwers and generators, in the prior year due to a significant winter storm in the northeast during the fourth quarter.
Gross margin – Gross margin of 34.55% for 2016 represented a 27 basis point decrease from 2015. The change was primarily driven by 23 basis points decrease due to purchase price adjustments to RONA’s opening inventory balance, and 11 basis points decrease due to targeted promotional activity, partially offset by 9 basis points increase due to cost reductions associated with Value Improvement efforts.
During the fourth quarter of 2016, gross margin of 34.41% decreased 25 basis points as a percentage of sales. Gross margin was negatively impacted 25 basis points by the RONA business, primarily driven by purchase price adjustments to their opening inventory balance and mix of business.
SG&A – SG&A expense for 2016 leveraged 61 basis points as a percentage of sales compared to 2015. This was primarily driven by 45 basis points of net leverage associated with impairment charges recorded during 2016 versus 2015 relating to our Australian joint venture with Woolworths. We experienced 15 basis points of leverage associated with incentive compensation, 14 basis points in employee insurance costs, and 12 basis points related to the settlement of the foreign currency option contract entered into in anticipation of the RONA acquisition. This was partially offset by 15 basis points of deleverage associated with the write-off of cancelled technology-enabled projects as part of an ongoing review of our strategic initiatives and 12 basis points associated with severance and related costs for organizational changes in the stores, distribution centers, and corporate offices.
During the fourth quarter of 2016, SG&A expense leveraged 445 basis points as a percentage of sales due primarily to 403 basis points of leverage associated with a non-cash impairment charge resulting from our decision to exit our Australian joint venture recorded in the fourth quarter of the prior year. We experienced 59 basis points of leverage in benefits primarily related to incentive compensation due to lower attainment levels compared to the same quarter of the prior year. These were partially offset by 53 basis points of deleverage associated with separation events for organizational changes in the stores, distribution centers, and corporate offices. Store environment, operating salaries, and certain other costs also leveraged as a result of sales growth.
Depreciation and amortization – Depreciation and amortization expense leveraged 24 basis points for 2016 compared to 2015 primarily due to the increase in sales from the 53rd week, partially offset by incremental expense due to the acquisition of RONA. Property, less accumulated depreciation, increased to $19.9 billion at February 3, 2017, compared to $19.6 billion at January 29, 2016. As of February 3, 2017 and January 29, 2016, we owned 79% and 86% of our stores, respectively, which included stores on leased land.
Interest – Net – Net interest expense is comprised of the following:
| (In millions) | 2016 | 2015 | |||||
| Interest expense, net of amount capitalized | $ | 647 | $ | 548 | |||
| Amortization of original issue discount and loan costs | 10 | 8 | |||||
| Interest income | (12 | ) | (4 | ) | |||
| Interest - net | $ | 645 | $ | 552 |
Net interest expense increased due primarily to an increase in total debt compared to the prior year.
Income tax provision - Our effective income tax rate was 40.5% in 2016 compared to 42.4% in 2015. During 2016, the Company was impacted by the passage of the U.S. Internal Revenue Service Internal Revenue Code Section 987, which negatively impacted the income tax rate due to the adjustment of deferred tax assets associated with cumulative currency translation adjustments related to certain of the Company’s international operations. In addition, the Company recorded a deferred tax asset related to the investment in the Australian joint venture with Woolworths associated with the non-cash impairment charges that occurred during both 2016 and 2015. The deferred tax asset associated with these losses was offset with the establishment of a full valuation allowance due to the fact the benefit of these losses can only be realized to the extent the Company has available capital gains for offset, and no present or future capital gains have been identified through which this deferred tax asset can be realized.
Our effective income tax rates were 40.3% and 96.1% for the three months ended February 3, 2017 and January 29, 2016, respectively, due to the same factors that impacted the income tax provision in the year.
Fiscal 2015 Compared to Fiscal 2014
Net sales – Net sales increased 5.1% to $59.1 billion in 2015. The increase in total sales was driven primarily by the comparable sales increase of 4.8% and new stores. The comparable sales increase of 4.8% in 2015 was driven by a 2.5% increase in comparable average ticket and a 2.2% increase in comparable customer transactions. Comparable sales during each quarter of the fiscal year, as reported, were 5.2% in the first quarter, 4.3% in the second quarter, 4.6% in the third quarter, and 5.2% in the fourth quarter.
All of our product categories experienced comparable sales increases for the year. During 2015, comparable sales were above the company average in the following product categories: Appliances, Outdoor Power Equipment, and Seasonal Living. Appliances experienced the strongest growth with a double digit increase in comparable sales as we further strengthened our brand offerings and breadth of assortment and continued to provide service advantages with next-day delivery and haul away. Within Outdoor Power Equipment, we drove strong performance in walk behind and riding mowers as well as pressure washers. The Outdoor Living Experience introduced last year drove comparable sales in our Seasonal Living category, where we continued to see strong sales in patio furniture, replacement cushions, and outdoor accessories. In addition, Tools & Hardware performed at approximately the overall company average driven by strong demand and continued improvement in both product assortment and brand relevance. Geographically, all of our 14 U.S. regions experienced increases in comparable store sales, as sales performance was well balanced across the country.
During the fourth quarter of 2015, we recorded comparable sales increases above the company average in Lumber & Building Materials, Appliances, Lawn & Garden, and Paint. We saw particular strength in outdoor project categories, led by Lumber & Building Materials and Lawn & Garden, as customers took advantage of mild weather to complete exterior projects such as roofs, fences, decks, and lawn care. Our landscape lighting experience also drove strong performance by providing inspiration and easy selection and installation for customers, while offering new product technologies such as LED. We achieved strong comparable sales increases in Appliances during the quarter through strengthened brand offerings and service advantages. Paint benefited from increased project activity, as well as growing awareness of our three-brand offering, providing customers with a full suite of top brands they can trust for their next paint project.
Gross margin – Gross margin of 34.82% for 2015 represented a three basis point increase from 2014 and was primarily driven by cost reductions associated with Value Improvement efforts and product cost deflation, partially offset by negative impacts from targeted promotional activity and mix of products sold.
During the fourth quarter of 2015, gross margin of 34.66% was flat as a percentage of sales due to the same factors that impacted gross margin in the year.
SG&A – SG&A expense for 2015 deleveraged 28 basis points as a percentage of sales compared to 2014. This was primarily driven by 90 basis points of deleverage associated with an impairment charge recorded during the fourth quarter of 2015 related to the valuation of our one-third interest in the Australian joint venture with Woolworths Limited. This was partially offset by 16 basis points of leverage associated with operating salaries as we optimized payroll hours against customer traffic and 16 basis points of leverage in advertising expense due to more efficient and effective media mix compared to the prior year. We experienced eight basis points of leverage in employee insurance costs due to increased sales in the current year partially offset by additional costs associated with the Affordable Care Act. We also experienced eight basis points of leverage in utilities due to stronger sales as well as a decrease in rates and consumption. In addition, we experienced seven basis points of leverage in building and site repair due to a decrease in the number of repairs during the year and seven basis points of leverage in external labor due to completed projects and increased focus on use of internal resources across information technology projects.
During the fourth quarter of 2015, SG&A expense deleveraged 331 basis points as a percentage of sales due primarily to 401 basis points of deleverage associated with the Australian joint venture impairment charge partially offset by leverage in operating salaries, advertising expense, utilities, employee insurance, and certain other fixed costs. We experienced 25 basis points of leverage in operating salaries associated with optimization of store payroll hours and 20 basis points in advertising expense due to more efficient and effective media mix. We also experienced 12 basis points of leverage in utilities primarily the result of warmer weather and 12 basis points in employee insurance costs due to a reduction in the number and severity of claims. Certain other fixed costs also leveraged as a result of sales growth.
Depreciation and amortization – Depreciation and amortization expense leveraged 13 basis points for 2015 compared to 2014 primarily due to the increase in sales. Property, less accumulated depreciation, decreased to $19.6 billion at January 29, 2016 compared to $20.0 billion at January 30, 2015. At January 29, 2016 and January 30, 2015, we owned 86% of our stores, which included stores on leased land.
Interest – Net – Net interest expense is comprised of the following:
| (In millions) | 2015 | 2014 | |||||
| Interest expense, net of amount capitalized | $ | 548 | $ | 515 | |||
| Amortization of original issue discount and loan costs | 8 | 7 | |||||
| Interest income | (4 | ) | (6 | ) | |||
| Interest - net | $ | 552 | $ | 516 |
Net interest expense increased primarily as a result of the issuance of $1.75 billion and $1.25 billion of unsecured notes in September 2015 and 2014, respectively. This was partially offset by the repayment of $500 million unsecured notes on October 15, 2015.
Income tax provision – Our effective income tax rate was 42.4% in 2015 compared to 36.9% in 2014. During 2015, the Company recorded a deferred tax asset related to losses associated with the joint venture investment in Australia with Woolworths Limited. The deferred tax asset associated with these losses was offset with the establishment of a full valuation allowance due to the fact the benefit of these losses can only be realized to the extent the Company has available capital gains for offset, and no present or future capital gains have been identified through which this deferred tax asset can be realized. The effective tax rate in 2014 benefited from the favorable settlement of certain federal tax matters.
FINANCIAL CONDITION, LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES
Cash Flows
The following table summarizes our cash flow activities for each of the three most recent fiscal years ended February 3, 2017:
| (In millions) | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | |||||
| Net cash provided by (used in): | ||||||||
| Operating activities | 5,617 | 4,784 | 4,929 | |||||
| Investing activities | (3,361 | ) | (1,343 | ) | (1,088 | ) | ||
| Financing activities | (2,092 | ) | (3,493 | ) | (3,761 | ) |
Cash flows from operating activities continued to provide the primary source of our liquidity. The increase in net cash provided by operating activities for 2016 versus 2015 was primarily driven by an increase in net earnings, adjusted for non-cash expenses and improved working capital management. The decrease in net cash provided by operating activities for 2015 versus 2014 was primarily driven by changes in working capital.
The increase in net cash used in investing activities for 2016 versus 2015 was primarily driven by the acquisition of RONA. The increase in net cash used in investing activities for 2015 versus 2014 was primarily driven by increased capital expenditures and purchases of investments, net of sales and maturities, partially offset by decreased contributions to equity method investments.
The decrease in net cash used in financing activities for 2016 versus 2015 was driven primarily by an increase in net proceeds from the issuance of long-term debt. The Company received proceeds of $3.3 billion from the issuance of unsecured notes in 2016 compared to $1.7 billion in 2015. The decrease in net cash used in financing activities is also attributable to a decrease in share repurchases, and is partially offset by an increase in repayments of long-term debt. The decrease in net cash used in financing activities for 2015 versus 2014 was driven primarily by increased proceeds from the issuance of long-term debt in 2015 and net repayments of short-term borrowings in 2014 versus net borrowings in 2015. This was partially offset by increased repayments of long-term debt and increased cash dividend payments in 2015.
Sources of Liquidity
Liquidity is provided primarily by our cash flows from operations, short-term borrowing facilities, and long-term debt.
In November 2016, the Company entered into an amended and restated credit agreement (the Amended Facility) with a syndicate of banks to modify the Company’s credit agreement dated August 29, 2014 (the 2014 Credit Facility), which provided for borrowings up to $1.75 billion through August 2019. The Amended Facility extends the maturity date to
November 2021 and continues to provide for borrowings up to $1.75 billion. Subject to obtaining commitments from the lenders and satisfying other conditions specified in the Amended Facility, the Company may increase the aggregate availability by an additional $500 million. The Amended Facility supports our commercial paper program and has a $500 million letter of credit sublimit. Letters of credit issued pursuant to the facility reduce the amount available for borrowing under its terms. Borrowings made are unsecured and priced at fixed rates based upon market conditions at the time of funding in accordance with the terms of the facility. The Amended Facility contains customary representations, warranties, and covenants for a transaction of this type. We were in compliance with those covenants at February 3, 2017. As of February 3, 2017, there were $510 million of outstanding borrowings under the commercial paper program and no outstanding borrowings or letters of credit under the credit facility.
We expect to continue to have access to the capital markets on both short-term and long-term bases when needed for liquidity purposes by issuing commercial paper or new long-term debt. The availability and the borrowing costs of these funds could be adversely affected, however, by a downgrade of our debt ratings or a deterioration of certain financial ratios. The table below reflects our debt ratings by Standard & Poor’s (S&P) and Moody’s as of April 3, 2017, which we are disclosing to enhance understanding of our sources of liquidity and the effect of our ratings on our cost of funds. Although we currently do not expect a downgrade in our debt ratings, our commercial paper and senior debt ratings may be subject to revision or withdrawal at any time by the assigning rating organization, and each rating should be evaluated independently of any other rating.
| Debt Ratings | S&P | Moody’s | |
| Commercial Paper | A-2 | P-2 | |
| Senior Debt | A- | A3 | |
| Outlook | Stable | Stable |
We believe that net cash provided by operating and financing activities will be adequate not only for our operating requirements, but also for investments in our existing stores and distribution facilities, investments in information technology, expansion plans, acquisitions, if any, and to return cash to shareholders through both dividends and share repurchases over the next 12 months. There are no provisions in any agreements that would require early cash settlement of existing debt or leases as a result of a downgrade in our debt rating or a decrease in our stock price. In addition, we do not believe it will be necessary to repatriate significant cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments held in foreign affiliates to fund domestic operations.
Cash Requirements
Capital expenditures
Our fiscal 2017 capital forecast is approximately $1.4 billion. Investments in our existing stores, including investments in remerchandising, store equipment, and technology, are expected to account for approximately 40% of net cash outflow. Our expansion plans are expected to account for approximately 35% of planned net cash outflow. Approximately 20% of planned net cash outflow is for corporate programs, including investments to enhance the customer experience, as well as enhancements to the corporate infrastructure. Other planned capital expenditures, accounting for approximately 5% of planned net cash outflow, are for investments in our existing distribution network.
Debt and capital
Unsecured debt of $500 million and $250 million is scheduled to mature in April 2017 and September 2017, respectively. See Note 8 to the consolidated financial statements included herein for additional information regarding long-term debt, including fiscal year 2016 financing activities.
We have an ongoing share repurchase program, authorized by the Company’s Board of Directors, that is executed through purchases made from time to time either in the open market or through private off-market transactions. Shares purchased under the share repurchase program are retired and returned to authorized and unissued status. As of February 3, 2017, we had $5.1 billion share repurchases remaining available under our program with no expiration date. In fiscal 2017, we expect to repurchase shares totaling $3.5 billion through purchases made from time to time either in the open market or through private off market transactions in accordance with SEC regulations. See Note 9 to the consolidated financial statements included herein for additional information regarding share repurchases.
Dividends declared during fiscal 2016 totaled $1.2 billion. Our dividend payment dates are established such that dividends are paid in the quarter immediately following the quarter in which they are declared. The dividend declared in the fourth quarter of 2016 was paid in fiscal 2017 and totaled $304 million.
Our ratio of debt to equity plus debt was 70.8% and 62.3% as of February 3, 2017, and January 29, 2016, respectively.
OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENTS
Other than in connection with executing operating leases, we do not have any off-balance sheet financing that has, or is reasonably likely to have, a current or future material effect on our financial condition, cash flows, results of operations, liquidity, capital expenditures or capital resources.
CONTRACTUAL OBLIGATIONS AND COMMERCIAL COMMITMENTS
The following table summarizes our significant contractual obligations at February 3, 2017:
| Payments Due by Period | |||||||||||||||||||
| Contractual Obligations (in millions) | Total | Less Than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 4-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
| Long-term debt (principal amounts, excluding discount and debt issuance costs) | $ | 14,466 | $ | 751 | $ | 1,301 | $ | 1,526 | $ | 10,888 | |||||||||
| Long-term debt (interest payments) | 9,533 | 577 | 1,105 | 1,037 | 6,814 | ||||||||||||||
| Capitalized lease obligations 1, 2 | 1,454 | 87 | 260 | 165 | 942 | ||||||||||||||
| Operating leases 1 | 5,853 | 617 | 1,140 | 974 | 3,122 | ||||||||||||||
| Purchase obligations 3 | 1,409 | 876 | 393 | 139 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
| Total contractual obligations | $ | 32,715 | $ | 2,908 | $ | 4,199 | $ | 3,841 | $ | 21,767 | |||||||||
| Amount of Commitment Expiration by Period | |||||||||||||||||||
| Commercial Commitments (in millions) | Total | Less Than 1 Year | 1-3 Years | 4-5 Years | After 5 Years | ||||||||||||||
| Letters of Credit 4 | $ | 67 | $ | 60 | $ | 7 | $ | — | $ | — |
| 1 | Amounts do not include taxes, common area maintenance, insurance, or contingent rent because these amounts have historically been insignificant. |
| 2 | Amounts include imputed interest and residual values. |
| 3 | Purchase obligations include agreements to purchase goods or services that are enforceable, are legally binding, and specify all significant terms, including fixed or minimum quantities to be purchased; fixed, minimum or variable price provisions; and the approximate timing of the transaction. Our purchase obligations include firm commitments related to certain marketing and information technology programs, as well as purchases of merchandise inventory. |
| 4 | Letters of credit are issued primarily for insurance and construction contracts. |
CRITICAL ACCOUNTING POLICIES AND ESTIMATES
The preparation of the consolidated financial statements and notes to consolidated financial statements presented in this Annual Report requires us to make estimates that affect the reported amounts of assets, liabilities, sales and expenses, and related disclosures of contingent assets and liabilities. We base these estimates on historical results and various other assumptions believed to be reasonable, all of which form the basis for making estimates concerning the carrying values of assets and liabilities that are not readily available from other sources. Actual results may differ from these estimates.
Our significant accounting policies are described in Note 1 to the consolidated financial statements. We believe that the following accounting policies affect the most significant estimates and management judgments used in preparing the consolidated financial statements.
Merchandise Inventory
Description
We record an obsolete inventory reserve for the anticipated loss associated with selling inventories below cost. This reserve is based on our current knowledge with respect to inventory levels, sales trends and historical experience. During 2016, our reserve increased approximately $14 million to $59 million as of February 3, 2017.
We also record an inventory reserve for the estimated shrinkage between physical inventories. This reserve is based primarily on actual shrinkage results from previous physical inventories. During 2016, the inventory shrinkage reserve increased approximately $18 million to $189 million as of February 3, 2017.
In addition, we receive funds from vendors in the normal course of business, principally as a result of purchase volumes, sales, early payments or promotions of vendors’ products. Generally, these vendor funds do not represent the reimbursement of specific, incremental and identifiable costs that we incurred to sell the vendor’s product. Therefore, we treat these funds as a reduction in the cost of inventory as the amounts are accrued, and recognize these funds as a reduction of cost of sales when the inventory is sold. Funds that are determined to be reimbursements of specific, incremental and identifiable costs incurred to sell vendors’ products are recorded as an offset to the related expense.
Judgments and uncertainties involved in the estimate
We do not believe that our merchandise inventories are subject to significant risk of obsolescence in the near term, and we have the ability to adjust purchasing practices based on anticipated sales trends and general economic conditions. However, changes in consumer purchasing patterns or a deterioration in product quality could result in the need for additional reserves. Likewise, changes in the estimated shrink reserve may be necessary, based on the timing and results of physical inventories. We also apply judgment in the determination of levels of obsolete inventory and assumptions about net realizable value.
For vendor funds, we develop accrual rates based on the provisions of the agreements in place. Due to the complexity and diversity of the individual vendor agreements, we perform analyses and review historical purchase trends and volumes throughout the year, adjust accrual rates as appropriate and confirm actual amounts with select vendors to ensure the amounts earned are appropriately recorded. Amounts accrued throughout the year could be impacted if actual purchase volumes differ from projected purchase volumes, especially in the case of programs that provide for increased funding when graduated purchase volumes are met.
Effect if actual results differ from assumptions
We have not made any material changes in the methodology used to establish our inventory valuation or the related reserves for obsolete inventory or inventory shrinkage during the past three fiscal years. We believe that we have sufficient current and historical knowledge to record reasonable estimates for both of these inventory reserves. However, it is possible that actual results could differ from recorded reserves. A 10% change in either the amount of products considered obsolete or the weighted average estimated loss rate used in the calculation of our obsolete inventory reserve would have affected net earnings by approximately $3 million for 2016. A 10% change in the estimated shrinkage rate included in the calculation of our inventory shrinkage reserve would have affected net earnings by approximately $12 million for 2016.
We have not made any material changes in the methodology used to recognize vendor funds during the past three fiscal years. If actual results are not consistent with the assumptions and estimates used, we could be exposed to additional adjustments that could positively or negatively impact gross margin and inventory. However, substantially all receivables associated with these activities do not require subjective long-term estimates because they are collected within the following fiscal year. Adjustments to gross margin and inventory in the following fiscal year have historically not been material.
Impairment of Investments
Description
We use the equity method to account for investments in companies if the investment provides the ability to exercise significant influence, but not control, over operating and financial policies of the investee. Our proportionate share of the net income or loss of these companies is included in consolidated net earnings. We use the cost method to account for investments in companies for which we do not exercise significant influence. Each of the Company’s equity method and cost method investments are subject to a review for impairment if, and when, circumstances indicate that the fair value of our investment could be less than the carrying value. Evidence considered in this evaluation includes, but would not necessarily be limited to, the financial condition and near-term prospects of the investee, recent operating trends and forecasted performance of the investee, market conditions in the geographic area or industry in which the investee operates, and the Company’s strategic plans for holding the investment in relation to the period of time expected for an anticipated recovery of its carrying value. If
the results of our review indicate an other than temporary decline in the carrying value of our investment, the Company would write down the investment to its estimated fair value.
Judgments and uncertainties involved in the estimate
Our impairment evaluations for equity method and cost method investments require us to apply judgment in determining whether a decrease in value that is other than temporary has occurred. If we need to assess the recoverability of our investments, we will make assumptions regarding estimated future cash flows of those investments. These calculations require us to apply judgments, including assumptions of future performance, based on business plans and forecasts, recent economic and business trends, and competitive conditions.
Effect if actual results differ from assumptions
We own a one-third share in Hydrox Holdings Pty Ltd., a joint venture with Woolworths Limited (Woolworths), which operates Masters Home Improvement stores and Home Timber and Hardware Group’s retail stores and wholesale distribution in Australia. As a result of our decision to exit the investment in 2015, Woolworths is required to purchase Lowe’s one-third share of the joint venture at fair value as of January 18, 2016, the date of our notification of our intention to exit. The process for the two parties agreeing on fair value is prescribed in the Joint Venture Agreement.
During the third quarter of fiscal year 2016, Woolworths claimed a unilateral termination of the joint venture agreement, and executed other agreements to initiate the wind down of Hydrox without the Company’s approval as required under the joint venture agreement. Due to this, Lowe’s has concluded that under applicable accounting standards, the investment should be accounted for as a cost method investment going forward. As a result of this determination, accumulated foreign currency translation adjustments of $208 million were reclassified from accumulated other comprehensive loss into the carrying value of the cost method investment. In addition, the unilateral actions of Woolworths to begin the liquidation of Hydrox, represented a triggering event requiring the Company to evaluate the cost method investment for impairment. Management determined that the requirements for determining impairment were met, and leveraged wind down cash flow projections in determining the estimated fair value of the entity. The value was determined using an income approach based upon the expected future cash flows generated from the settlement of assets and liabilities inclusive of inventory, property, payables, lease liabilities and employee entitlements. As a result, the Company recorded a $290 million non-cash impairment charge during the third quarter of fiscal 2016 to reflect its estimated portion of the overall joint venture fair value in wind down. The assumptions that most significantly affect the fair value determination include the projected future cash anticipated in the settlement of assets and liabilities by Woolworths. Further changes in this estimate are possible as the parties proceed through the final stages of the valuation process as defined in the Joint Venture Agreement. The carrying value of the investment as of February 3, 2017 is $103 million. A 10% change in our current estimate of fair value of the joint venture would have affected net earnings by approximately $10 million for 2016.
Long-Lived Asset Impairment
Description
We review the carrying amounts of locations whenever certain events or changes in circumstances indicate that the carrying amounts may not be recoverable. When evaluating locations for impairment, our asset group is at an individual location level, as that is the lowest level for which cash flows are identifiable. Cash flows for individual locations do not include an allocation of corporate overhead.
We evaluate locations for triggering events relating to long-lived asset impairment on a quarterly basis to determine when a location’s asset carrying values may not be recoverable. For operating locations, our primary indicator that asset carrying values may not be recoverable is consistently negative cash flow for a 12-month period for those locations that have been open in the same location for a sufficient period of time to allow for meaningful analysis of ongoing operating results. Management also monitors other factors when evaluating operating locations for impairment, including individual locations’ execution of their operating plans and local market conditions, including incursion, which is the opening of either other Lowe’s locations or those of a direct competitor within the same market. We also consider there to be a triggering event when there is a current expectation that it is more likely than not that a given location will be closed significantly before the end of its previously estimated useful life.
A potential impairment has occurred if projected future undiscounted cash flows expected to result from the use and eventual disposition of the location’s assets are less than the carrying amount of the assets. When determining the stream of projected future cash flows associated with an individual operating location, management makes assumptions, incorporating local market conditions, about key store variables including sales growth rates, gross margin and controllable expenses, such as store payroll and occupancy expense, as well as asset residual values or lease rates. An impairment loss is recognized when the carrying amount of the operating location is not recoverable and exceeds its fair value.
We use an income approach to determine the fair value of our individual operating locations, which requires discounting projected future cash flows. This involves making assumptions regarding both a location’s future cash flows, as described above, and an appropriate discount rate to determine the present value of those future cash flows. We discount our cash flow estimates at a rate commensurate with the risk that selected market participants would assign to the cash flows. The selected market participants represent a group of other retailers with a market footprint similar in size to ours.
Judgments and uncertainties involved in the estimate
Our impairment evaluations for long-lived assets require us to apply judgment in determining whether a triggering event has occurred, including the evaluation of whether it is more likely than not that a location will be closed significantly before the end of its previously estimated useful life. Our impairment loss calculations require us to apply judgment in estimating expected future cash flows, including estimated sales, margin, and controllable expenses, assumptions about market performance for operating locations, and estimated selling prices or lease rates for locations identified for closure. We also apply judgment in estimating asset fair values, including the selection of an appropriate discount rate for fair values determined using an income approach.
Effect if actual results differ from assumptions
During 2016, 14 operating locations experienced a triggering event and were evaluated for recoverability. Eleven of the 14 operating locations were determined to be impaired due to a decline in recent cash flow trends and an unfavorable sales outlook, resulting in an impairment loss of $34 million during 2016, compared to impairment losses of $8 million related to two operating locations impaired during 2015. Three of the 14 operating locations that experienced a triggering event during 2016 were determined to be recoverable and, therefore, were not impaired. A 10% reduction in projected sales used to estimate future cash flows for these operating locations would not have had a significant impact to impairment losses recognized during 2016.
We have not made any material changes in the methodology used to estimate the future cash flows of operating locations or locations identified for closure during the past three fiscal years. If the actual results are not consistent with the assumptions and judgments we have made in determining whether it is more likely than not that a location will be closed significantly before the end of its useful life or in estimating future cash flows and determining asset fair values, our actual impairment losses could vary positively or negatively from our estimated impairment losses.
Goodwill
Description
Goodwill is not amortized but is evaluated for impairment at least annually on the first day of the fourth quarter or whenever events or changes in circumstances indicate that it is more likely than not that the carrying amount may not be recoverable. We test for goodwill impairment at the reporting unit level, which is one level below the operating segment level. The evaluation begins with a qualitative assessment to determine whether a quantitative impairment test is necessary. If, after assessing qualitative factors, we determine it is more likely than not that the fair value of the reporting unit is less than the carrying amount, then the two-step goodwill impairment test is necessary.
The first step of the goodwill impairment test used to identify potential impairment, compares the fair value of a reporting unit with its carrying amount, including goodwill. Fair value represents the price a market participant would be willing to pay in a potential sale of the reporting unit and is based on discounted future cash flows. If the fair value exceeds carrying value, then no goodwill impairment has occurred. If the carrying value of the reporting unit exceeds its fair value, a second step is required to measure possible goodwill impairment loss. The second step includes hypothetically valuing the tangible and intangible assets and liabilities of the reporting unit as if the reporting unit had been acquired in a business combination. Then, the implied fair value of the reporting unit’s goodwill is compared to the carrying value of that goodwill. If the carrying value of the reporting unit’s goodwill exceeds the implied fair value of the goodwill, we recognize an impairment loss in an amount equal to the excess, not to exceed the carrying value.
Judgments and uncertainties involved in the estimate
The determination of the fair value of the reporting units requires us to make significant estimates and assumptions, including store growth rates, existing store sales growth rates, forecasting expenses and selecting appropriate discount rates.
Effect if actual results differ from assumptions
During the third quarter of fiscal year 2016, we determined our Orchard Supply Hardware (Orchard) reporting unit was impaired. We recorded impairment loss related to the Orchard reporting unit of $46 million, which represented the entire amount of goodwill allocated to this reporting unit.
The carrying value of goodwill as of February 3, 2017, was $1.1 billion. We do not believe there is a reasonable likelihood that there will be a material change in the future estimates or assumptions we use to test for impairment losses on goodwill. However, if actual results are not consistent with our estimates or assumptions, we may be exposed to an impairment charge that could be material.
Self-Insurance
Description
We are self-insured for certain losses relating to workers’ compensation, automobile, general and product liability, extended protection plan, and certain medical and dental claims. Our self-insured retention or deductible, as applicable, is limited to $2 million per occurrence involving workers’ compensation, $5 million per occurrence involving general or product liability, and $10 million per occurrence involving automobile. We do not have any insurance coverage for self-insured extended protection plan or medical and dental claims. Self-insurance claims filed and claims incurred but not reported are accrued based upon our estimates of the discounted ultimate cost for self-insured claims incurred using actuarial assumptions followed in the insurance industry and historical experience. During 2016, our self-insurance liability decreased approximately $52 million to $831 million as of February 3, 2017.
Judgments and uncertainties involved in the estimate
These estimates are subject to changes in the regulatory environment, utilized discount rate, projected exposures including payroll, sales and vehicle units, as well as the frequency, lag and severity of claims.
Effect if actual results differ from assumptions
We have not made any material changes in the methodology used to establish our self-insurance liability during the past three fiscal years. Although we believe that we have the ability to reasonably estimate losses related to claims, it is possible that actual results could differ from recorded self-insurance liabilities. A 10% change in our self-insurance liability would have affected net earnings by approximately $51 million for 2016. A 100 basis point change in our discount rate would have affected net earnings by approximately $17 million for 2016.
Revenue Recognition
Description
See Note 1 to the consolidated financial statements for a discussion of our revenue recognition policies. The following accounting estimates relating to revenue recognition require management to make assumptions and apply judgment regarding the effects of future events that cannot be determined with certainty.
We sell separately-priced extended protection plan contracts under a Lowe’s-branded program for which the Company is ultimately self-insured. The Company recognizes revenues from extended protection plan sales on a straight-line basis over the respective contract term. Extended protection plan contract terms primarily range from one to four years from the date of purchase or the end of the manufacturer’s warranty, as applicable. The Company consistently groups and evaluates extended protection plan contracts based on the characteristics of the underlying products and the coverage provided in order to monitor for expected losses. A loss on the overall contract would be recognized if the expected costs of performing services under the contracts exceeded the amount of unamortized acquisition costs and related deferred revenue associated with the contracts. Deferred revenues associated with the extended protection plan contracts increased $34 million to $763 million as of February 3, 2017.
We defer revenue and cost of sales associated with settled transactions for which customers have not yet taken possession of merchandise or for which installation has not yet been completed. Revenue is deferred based on the actual amounts received. We use historical gross margin rates to estimate the adjustment to cost of sales for these transactions. During 2016, deferred revenues associated with these transactions increased $136 million to $755 million as of February 3, 2017.
Judgments and uncertainties involved in the estimate
For extended protection plans, there is judgment inherent in our evaluation of expected losses as a result of our methodology for grouping and evaluating extended protection plan contracts and from the actuarial determination of the estimated cost of the contracts. There is also judgment inherent in our determination of the recognition pattern of costs of performing services under these contracts.
For the deferral of revenue and cost of sales associated with transactions for which customers have not yet taken possession of merchandise or for which installation has not yet been completed, there is judgment inherent in our estimates of gross margin rates.
Effect if actual results differ from assumptions
We have not made any material changes in the methodology used to recognize revenue on our extended protection plan contracts during the past three fiscal years. We currently do not anticipate incurring any overall contract losses on our extended protection plan contracts. Although we believe that we have the ability to adequately monitor and estimate expected losses under the extended protection plan contracts, it is possible that actual results could differ from our estimates. In addition, if future evidence indicates that the costs of performing services under these contracts are incurred on other than a straight-line basis, the timing of revenue recognition under these contracts could change. A 10% change in the amount of revenue recognized in 2016 under these contracts would have affected net earnings by approximately $22 million.
We have not made any material changes in the methodology used to reverse net sales and cost of sales related to amounts received for which customers have not yet taken possession of merchandise or for which installation has not yet been completed. We believe we have sufficient current and historical knowledge to record reasonable estimates related to the impact to cost of sales for these transactions. However, if actual results are not consistent with our estimates or assumptions, we may incur additional income or expense. A 10% change in the estimate of the gross margin rates applied to these transactions would have affected net earnings by approximately $11 million in 2016.
DISCLOSURE REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
We speak throughout this Annual Report in forward-looking statements about our future, but particularly in “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations”. The words “believe,” “expect,” “will,” “should,” “suggest”, and other similar expressions are intended to identify those forward-looking statements. While we believe our expectations are reasonable, they are not guarantees of future performance. Our actual results could differ substantially from our expectations.
For a detailed description of the risks and uncertainties that we are exposed to, you should read the “Risk Factors” included elsewhere in this Annual Report. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this Annual Report or, in the case of any document incorporated by reference, the date of that document. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributable to us or any person acting on our behalf are qualified by the cautionary statements in this section and in the “Risk Factors” included elsewhere in this Annual Report. We do not undertake any obligation to update or publicly release any revisions to forward-looking statements to reflect events, circumstances or changes in expectations after the date of this report.
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