Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

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Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

The following discussion on market risk should be read in conjunction with “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Risk Management.”

Market Risk Exposures

We regularly analyze our exposure to interest rate, foreign currency exchange rate and equity market price risk. As a result of that analysis, we have determined that the estimated fair values of certain assets and liabilities are materially exposed to changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates and equity markets. We have exposure to market risk through our insurance operations and investment activities. For purposes of this disclosure, “market risk” is defined as the risk of loss due to potential changes in the value of assets and liabilities arising from fluctuation in the financial markets and other economic factors.

Interest Rates

Our exposure to interest rate changes results most significantly from our holdings of fixed maturity securities AFS, mortgage loans, derivatives, and our interest rate sensitive liabilities. The fixed maturity securities AFS include U.S. and foreign government bonds, securities issued by government agencies, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities and ABS & CLO, all of which are mainly exposed to changes in medium- and long-term interest rates. The interest rate sensitive liabilities for purposes of this disclosure include FPBs, policyholder account balances related to certain investment type contracts, debt, and MRBs primarily consisting of variable annuities with guaranteed minimum benefits which have the same type of interest rate exposure (medium- and long-term interest rates) as fixed maturity securities AFS. See “Risk Factors — Economic Environment and Capital Markets Risks — We May Face Difficult Economic Conditions” included in the 2022 Annual Report.

Foreign Currency Exchange Rates

Our exposure to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates against the U.S. dollar results most significantly from our holdings in non-U.S. dollar denominated fixed maturity and equity securities, mortgage loans, and insurance liabilities, as well as through our investments in foreign subsidiaries. The principal currencies that create foreign currency exchange rate risk in our investment portfolios and insurance liabilities are the Japanese yen, the Euro and the British pound. Selectively, we use U.S. dollar assets to support certain long-duration foreign currency liabilities. Through our investments in foreign subsidiaries and joint ventures, we are primarily exposed to the Japanese yen, the Euro, the Australian dollar, the British pound, the Mexican peso, the Chilean peso and the Korean won. In addition to hedging with foreign currency swaps, forwards and options, local surplus in some countries may be held entirely or in part in U.S. dollar assets, which further minimize exposure to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuation risk. We have matched much of our foreign currency insurance liabilities in our foreign subsidiaries with their respective foreign currency assets, thereby reducing our risk to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuation. See “Risk Factors — Economic Environment and Capital Markets Risks — We May Face Difficult Economic Conditions” included in the 2022 Annual Report.

Equity Market

Along with investments in equity and FVO Securities, we have exposure to equity market risk through certain liabilities that involve long-term guarantees on equity performance, such as MRBs for variable annuities with guaranteed minimum benefits and certain policyholder account balances. Equity exposures associated with real estate and limited partnership interests are excluded from this discussion as they are not considered financial instruments under GAAP.

Management of Market Risk Exposures

We use a variety of strategies to manage interest rate, foreign currency exchange rate and equity market risk, including the use of derivatives.

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Interest Rate Risk Management

To manage interest rate risk, we analyze interest rate risk using various models, including multi-scenario cash flow projection models that forecast cash flows of the liabilities and their supporting investments, including derivatives. These projections involve evaluating the potential gain or loss on most of our in-force business under various increasing and decreasing interest rate environments. The NYDFS regulations require that we perform some of these analyses annually as part of our review of the sufficiency of our regulatory reserves. For several of our legal entities, we maintain segmented operating and surplus asset portfolios for the purpose of ALM and the allocation of investment income to product lines. In the U.S., for each segment, invested assets greater than or equal to the GAAP liabilities net of certain non-invested assets allocated to the segment are maintained, with any excess allocated to Corporate & Other. The business segments may reflect differences in legal entity, statutory line of business and any product market characteristic which may drive a distinct investment strategy with respect to duration, liquidity or credit quality of the invested assets. Certain smaller entities make use of unsegmented general accounts for which the investment strategy reflects the aggregate characteristics of liabilities in those entities. We measure relative sensitivities of the value of our assets and liabilities to changes in key assumptions utilizing internal models. These models reflect specific product characteristics and include assumptions based on current and anticipated experience regarding lapse, mortality, morbidity and interest crediting rates. In addition, these models include asset cash flow projections reflecting interest payments, sinking fund payments, principal payments, bond calls, mortgage loan prepayments and defaults.

We employ product design, pricing and ALM strategies to reduce the potential effects of interest rate movements. Product design and pricing strategies include the use of surrender charges or restrictions on withdrawals in some products and the ability to reset crediting rates for certain products. ALM strategies include the use of derivatives. We also use reinsurance to mitigate interest rate risk.

We also use common industry metrics, such as duration and convexity, to measure the relative sensitivity of assets and liability values to changes in interest rates. In computing the duration of liabilities, we consider policyholder guarantees and how we intend to set indeterminate policy elements such as interest credits or dividends. Each asset portfolio or portfolio group has a duration target based on the liability duration and the investment objectives of that portfolio. Where a liability cash flow may exceed the maturity of available assets, we may support such liabilities with equity investments, derivatives or interest rate curve mismatch strategies.

Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk Management

MetLife has a well-established policy to manage foreign currency exchange rate exposures within its risk tolerance. In general, investments backing specific liabilities are currency matched. This is achieved through direct investments in matching currency or through the use of foreign currency exchange rate derivatives. Enterprise foreign currency exchange rate risk limits are established by the ERC. Management of each of our segments, with oversight from our FX Working Group and the ALM committee for the respective segment, is responsible for managing any foreign currency exchange rate exposure.

We use foreign currency swaps, forwards and options to mitigate the liability exposure, risk of loss and financial statement volatility associated with our investments in foreign subsidiaries, foreign currency denominated fixed income investments and foreign currency insurance liabilities.

Equity Market Risk Management

We manage equity market risk on an integrated basis with other risks through our ALM strategies, including the dynamic hedging with derivatives of certain variable annuity guarantee benefits accounted for as MRBs, as well as reinsurance, in order to limit losses, minimize exposure to large risks, and provide additional capacity for future growth. We also manage equity market risk exposure in our investment portfolio through the use of derivatives. These derivatives include exchange-traded equity futures, equity index options contracts, TRRs and equity variance swaps.

Hedging Activities

We use derivative contracts primarily to hedge a wide range of risks including interest rate risk, foreign currency exchange rate risk, and equity market risk. Derivative hedges are designed to reduce risk on an economic basis while considering their impact on financial results under different accounting regimes, including GAAP and local statutory accounting. Our derivative hedge programs vary depending on the type of risk being hedged. Some hedge programs are asset or liability specific while others are portfolio hedges that reduce risk related to a group of liabilities or assets. Our use of derivatives by major hedge programs is as follows:

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  • Risks Related to Guarantee Benefits — We use a wide range of derivative contracts to mitigate the risk associated with living guarantee benefits accounted for as MRBs. These derivatives include equity and interest rate futures, interest rate swaps, currency futures/forwards, equity indexed options, TRRs, interest rate option contracts and equity variance swaps.

  • Minimum Interest Rate Guarantees — For certain liability contracts, we provide the contractholder a guaranteed minimum interest rate. These contracts include certain fixed annuities and other insurance liabilities. We purchase interest rate caps and floors to reduce risk associated with these liability guarantees.

  • Reinvestment Risk in Long-Duration Liability Contracts — Derivatives are used to hedge interest rate risk related to certain long-duration liability contracts. Hedges include interest rate swaps, swaptions and Treasury bond forwards.

  • Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk — We use foreign currency swaps, futures, forwards and options to hedge foreign currency exchange rate risk. These hedges are generally used to swap foreign currency denominated bonds, investments in foreign subsidiaries or equity market exposures to U.S. dollars. Our foreign subsidiaries also use these hedges to swap non-local currency assets to local currency, to match liabilities**.**

  • General ALM Hedging Strategies — In the ordinary course of managing our asset/liability risks, we use interest rate futures, interest rate swaps, interest rate caps, interest rate floors, and inflation swaps. These hedges are designed to reduce interest rate risk or inflation risk related to the existing assets or liabilities or related to expected future cash flows.

  • Macro Hedge Program — We use equity options, equity TRRs, interest rate swaptions, interest rate swaps and Treasury locks to mitigate the potential loss of legal entity statutory capital under stress scenarios.

Risk Measurement: Sensitivity Analysis

We measure market risk related to our market sensitive assets and liabilities based on changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates and equity market prices utilizing a sensitivity analysis. This analysis estimates the potential changes in estimated fair value based on a hypothetical 100 basis point change (increase or decrease) in interest rates, as well as a 10% change (increase or decrease) in foreign currency exchange rates and equity market prices. We believe these changes in market rates and prices are reasonably possible in the near term. In performing the analysis summarized below, we used market rates at March 31, 2023. The sensitivity analysis separately calculates each of our market risk exposures (interest rate, foreign currency exchange rate and equity market) relating to our assets and liabilities. We modeled the impact of changes (increases and decreases) in market rates and prices on the estimated fair values of our market sensitive assets and liabilities and present the results with the most adverse level of market risk impact to the Company for each of these market risk exposures as follows:

  • the net present values of our interest rate sensitive exposures resulting from a 100 basis point change (increase or decrease) in interest rates;

  • estimated fair values of our foreign currency exchange rate sensitive exposures due to a 10% change (appreciation or depreciation) in the value of the U.S. dollar compared to all other currencies; and

  • the estimated fair value of our equity market sensitive exposures due to a 10% change (increase or decrease) in equity market prices.

The sensitivity analysis is an estimate and should not be viewed as predictive of our future financial performance. We cannot ensure that our actual losses in any particular period will not exceed the amounts indicated in the table below. Limitations related to this sensitivity analysis include:

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  • liabilities do not include $19.6 billion of other policy-related balances largely consisting of claims, unearned revenue liabilities and policyholder dividends;

  • the analysis excludes real estate holdings, private equity and hedge fund holdings;

  • the market risk information is limited by the assumptions and parameters established in creating the related sensitivity analysis, including the impact of prepayment rates on mortgage loans;

  • sensitivities do not include the impact on asset or liability valuation of changes in market liquidity or changes in market credit spreads;

  • foreign currency exchange rate risk is not isolated for certain MRBs for variable annuities with guaranteed minimum benefits, as the risk on these instruments is reflected as equity;

  • the impact on reported earnings may be materially different from the change in market values, most notably for fixed maturity securities AFS, mortgage loans, FPBs, and derivatives that qualify for hedge accounting; and

  • the model assumes that the composition of assets and liabilities remains unchanged throughout the period.

Accordingly, we use such models as tools and not as substitutes for the experience and judgment of our management. Based on our analysis of the impact of a 100 basis point change (increase or decrease) in interest rates, as well as a 10% change (increase or decrease) in foreign currency exchange rates and equity market prices, we have determined that such a change could have a material adverse effect on the estimated fair value of certain assets and liabilities from interest rate, foreign currency exchange rate and equity market exposures.

The table below illustrates the potential loss in estimated fair value for each market risk exposure based on market sensitive assets and liabilities at:

March 31, 2023
(In millions)
Interest rate risk$9,345
Foreign currency exchange rate risk$2,605
Equity market risk$69

The risk sensitivities derived used a 100 basis point increase to interest rates, a 10% strengthening of the U.S. dollar against foreign currencies, and a 10% decrease in equity prices. The potential losses in estimated fair value presented are for non-trading securities.

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The table below provides additional detail regarding the potential loss in estimated fair value of our interest sensitive financial instruments due to a 100 basis point increase in interest rates at:

March 31, 2023
Notional AmountEstimated Fair Value (1)Assuming a 100 bps Increase in Interest Rates
(In millions)
Assets
Fixed maturity securities AFS$283,854$(21,797)
Equity securities$1,695$(81)
FVO Securities$1,543$(68)
Mortgage loans$81,473$(2,693)
Policy loans$9,796$(280)
Short-term investments$4,184$(17)
Other invested assets$2,181$(180)
Cash and cash equivalents$18,456$(4)
Accrued investment income$3,554$—
Premiums, reinsurance and other receivables$3,141$(17)
Market risk benefits$227$—
Reinsured market risk benefits$25$—
Other assets$1,086$(11)
Total assets$(25,148)
Liabilities
Future policy benefits$191,741$12,793
Policyholder account balances$125,518$4,030
Market risk benefits$3,869$1,134
Payables for collateral under securities loaned and other transactions$19,863$—
Short-term debt$168$—
Long-term debt$14,279$1,143
Collateral financing arrangement$579$—
Junior subordinated debt securities$3,473$292
Other liabilities$3,140$156
Total liabilities$19,548
Derivative Instruments
Interest rate swaps$38,201$1,510$(2,247)
Interest rate floors$22,896$140$(73)
Interest rate caps$42,415$733$243
Interest rate futures$1,344$2$38
Interest rate options$44,404$382$(255)
Interest rate forwards$7,972$(910)$(1,057)
Synthetic GICs$47,850$—$—
Foreign currency swaps$55,645$3,207$(349)
Foreign currency forwards$18,379$(610)$13
Currency futures$333$—$—
Currency options$3,000$262$(9)
Credit default swaps$15,676$39$1
Equity futures$2,785$(37)$(4)
Equity index options$17,642$261$(39)
Equity variance swaps$141$3$—
Equity total return swaps$2,856$3$(7)
Total derivative instruments$(3,745)
Net Change$(9,345)

(1)Separate account assets and liabilities and Unit-linked investments and associated policyholder account balances, which are interest rate sensitive, are not included herein as any interest rate risk is borne by the contractholder.

Sensitivity to interest rates increased $0.1 billion to $9.3 billion at March 31, 2023 from $9.2 billion at December 31, 2022.

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The table below provides additional detail regarding the potential loss in estimated fair value of our portfolio due to a 10% appreciation in the U.S. dollar compared to all other currencies at:

March 31, 2023
Notional AmountEstimated Fair Value (1)Assuming a 10% Appreciation in the U.S. Dollar
(In millions)
Assets
Fixed maturity securities AFS$283,854$(8,123)
Equity securities$1,695$(41)
FVO Securities$1,543$(62)
Mortgage loans$81,473$(808)
Policy loans$9,796$(124)
Short-term investments$4,184$(244)
Other invested assets$2,181$(53)
Cash and cash equivalents$18,456$(492)
Accrued investment income$3,554$(66)
Premiums, reinsurance and other receivables$3,141$(49)
Market risk benefits$227$—
Reinsured market risk benefits$25$—
Other assets$1,086$(17)
Total assets$(10,079)
Liabilities
Future policy benefits$191,741$3,655
Policyholder account balances$125,518$2,609
Market risk benefits$3,869$58
Payables for collateral under securities loaned and other transactions$19,863$166
Long-term debt$14,279$153
Other liabilities$3,140$16
Total liabilities$6,657
Derivative Instruments
Interest rate swaps$38,201$1,510$14
Interest rate floors$22,896$140$—
Interest rate caps$42,415$733$—
Interest rate futures$1,344$2$—
Interest rate options$44,404$382$(2)
Interest rate forwards$7,972$(910)$46
Synthetic GICs$47,850$—$—
Foreign currency swaps$55,645$3,207$1,417
Foreign currency forwards$18,379$(610)$(809)
Currency futures$333$—$(34)
Currency options$3,000$262$179
Credit default swaps$15,676$39$(1)
Equity futures$2,785$(37)$—
Equity index options$17,642$261$7
Equity variance swaps$141$3$—
Equity total return swaps$2,856$3$—
Total derivative instruments$817
Net Change$(2,605)

(1)Does not necessarily represent those financial instruments solely subject to foreign currency exchange rate risk. Separate account assets and liabilities and Unit-linked investments and associated policyholder account balances, which are foreign currency exchange rate sensitive, are not included herein as any foreign currency exchange rate risk is borne by the contractholder.

Sensitivity to foreign currency exchange rates increased $0.1 billion to $2.6 billion at March 31, 2023 from $2.5 billion at December 31, 2022.

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The table below provides additional detail regarding the potential loss in estimated fair value of our portfolio due to a 10% decrease in equity prices at:

March 31, 2023
Notional AmountEstimated Fair Value (1)Assuming a 10% Decrease in Equity Prices
(In millions)
Assets
Equity securities$1,695$(66)
FVO Securities$1,543$(76)
Other invested assets$2,181$(29)
Total assets$(171)
Liabilities
Policyholder account balances$125,518$—
Market risk benefits$3,869$(431)
Total liabilities$(431)
Derivative Instruments
Interest rate swaps$38,201$1,510$—
Interest rate floors$22,896$140$—
Interest rate caps$42,415$733$—
Interest rate futures$1,344$2$—
Interest rate options$44,404$382$—
Interest rate forwards$7,972$(910)$—
Synthetic GICs$47,850$—$—
Foreign currency swaps$55,645$3,207$—
Foreign currency forwards$18,379$(610)$—
Currency futures$333$—$—
Currency options$3,000$262$—
Credit default swaps$15,676$39$—
Equity futures$2,785$(37)$202
Equity index options$17,642$261$110
Equity variance swaps$141$3$—
Equity total return swaps$2,856$3$221
Total derivative instruments$533
Net Change$(69)

(1)Does not necessarily represent those financial instruments solely subject to equity price risk. Additionally, separate account assets and liabilities and Unit-linked investments and associated policyholder account balances, which are equity market sensitive, are not included herein as any equity market risk is borne by the contractholder.

Sensitivity to equity market prices increased $69 million to $69 million at March 31, 2023 from $0 at December 31, 2022.

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