Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk
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Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk
For a detailed discussion of our risk management strategies and our derivative instruments, see Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023.
See Notes 15 and 16 to the unaudited consolidated financial statements for more information about the fair value measurement of our derivatives, as well as the amounts recorded in our consolidated balance sheets and statements of income. We do not designate any of our commodity derivative instruments as hedges for accounting purposes.
The following table includes the composition of net gains and losses on our commodity derivative positions as of June 30, 2024 and 2023, respectively.
| Six Months Ended June 30, | ||||||||||||||
| (Millions of dollars) | 2024 | 2023 | ||||||||||||
| Realized gain (loss) on settled derivative positions | $ | (106) | $ | 137 | ||||||||||
| Unrealized loss on open net derivative positions | (17) | (15) | ||||||||||||
| Net gain (loss) | $ | (123) | $ | 122 |
See Note 16 to the unaudited consolidated financial statements for additional information on our open derivative positions at June 30, 2024.
Sensitivity analysis of the effects on income from operations (“IFO”) of hypothetical 10 percent and 25 percent increases and decreases in commodity prices for open commodity derivative instruments as of June 30, 2024 is provided in the following table.
| Change in IFO from a Hypothetical Price Increase of | Change in IFO from a Hypothetical Price Decrease of | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (Millions of dollars) | 10% | 25% | 10% | 25% | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| As of June 30, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Crude | $ | (73) | $ | (182) | $ | 73 | $ | 182 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Refined products | (10) | (24) | 10 | 24 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Blending products | (12) | (31) | 12 | 31 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Soybean oil | (5) | (13) | 5 | 13 |
We remain at risk for possible changes in the market value of commodity derivative instruments; however, such risk should be mitigated by price changes in the underlying physical commodity. Effects of these offsets are not reflected in the above sensitivity analysis.
We evaluate our portfolio of commodity derivative instruments on an ongoing basis and add or revise strategies in anticipation of changes in market conditions and in risk profiles. Changes to the portfolio after June 30, 2024 would cause future IFO effects to differ from those presented above.
Sensitivity analysis of the effect of a hypothetical 100-basis-point change in interest rates on long-term debt, including the portion classified as current and excluding finance leases, as of June 30, 2024 is provided in the following table. The fair value of cash and cash equivalents, receivables, accounts payable and accrued interest approximate carrying value and, in addition to short-term investments which are recorded at fair value, are relatively insensitive to changes in interest rates due to the short-term maturity of the instruments. Accordingly, these instruments are excluded from the table.
| (Millions of dollars) | Fair Value as of June 30, 2024(a) | Change in Fair Value(b) | Change in Net Income for the Six Months Ended June 30, 2024(c) | |||||||||||||||||
| Long-term debt | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed-rate | $ | 26,868 | $ | 1,998 | n/a | |||||||||||||||
| Variable-rate | — | — | — |
(a)Fair value was based on market prices, where available, or current borrowing rates for financings with similar terms and maturities.
(b)Assumes a 100-basis-point decrease in the weighted average yield-to-maturity at June 30, 2024.
(c)Assumes a 100-basis-point change in interest rates. The change to net income was based on the weighted average balance of debt outstanding for the six months ended June 30, 2024.
At June 30, 2024, our long-term debt was composed of fixed-rate instruments. The fair value of our fixed-rate debt is relatively sensitive to interest rate fluctuations. Our sensitivity to interest rate declines and corresponding increases in the fair value of our debt unfavorably affects our results of operations and cash flows only when we elect to repurchase or otherwise retire fixed-rate debt at prices above carrying value. Interest rate fluctuations generally do not impact the fair value of our variable-rate debt, but may affect our results of operations and cash flows.
See Note 15 to the unaudited consolidated financial statements for additional information on the fair value of our debt.
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