A Dark Vector Cognition product

Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk

4K characters. Original on sec.gov · Markdown

Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk

General

We are exposed to market risk attributable to changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates and fuel prices. We attempt to minimize these risks through a combination of our normal operating and financing activities and through the use of derivatives. The financial impacts of these derivative instruments are primarily offset by corresponding changes in the underlying exposures being hedged. We achieve this by closely matching the notional, term and conditions of the derivatives with the underlying risk being hedged. We do not hold or issue derivatives for trading or other speculative purposes. Derivative positions are monitored using techniques including market valuations and sensitivity analyses.

Interest Rate Risk

As of December 31, 2020, we had interest rate swap and collar agreements to hedge our exposure to interest rate movements and to manage our interest expense. As of December 31, 2020, 74% of our debt was fixed and 26% was variable, which includes the effects of the interest rate swaps and collars. The notional amount of outstanding debt associated with the interest rate derivative agreements was $0.7 billion as of December 31, 2020. As of December 31, 2019, 78% of our debt was fixed and 22% was variable, which includes the effects of the interest rate swaps and collars. The notional amount of outstanding debt associated with the interest rate derivative agreements was $1.7 billion as of

December 31, 2019. The change in our fixed rate percentage from December 31, 2019 to December 31, 2020 was primarily due to the maturity of interest rate swaps.

Based on our December 31, 2020 outstanding variable rate debt balance, a one percentage point increase in annual LIBOR interest rates would increase our annual interest expense by approximately $31.9 million excluding the effects of capitalization of interest.

Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk

As of December 31, 2020, we had foreign currency derivatives to hedge the exposure to volatility in foreign currency exchange rates related to our ship construction contracts denominated in euros. These derivatives hedge the foreign currency exchange rate risk on a portion of the payments on our ship construction contracts. The payments not hedged aggregate €5.0 billion, or $6.1 billion based on the euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate as of December 31, 2020. As of December 31, 2019, the payments not hedged aggregated €3.0 billion, or $3.4 billion, based on the euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate as of December 31, 2019. The change from December 31, 2019 to December 31, 2020 was due to the delivery of Seven Seas Splendor. We estimate that a 10% change in the euro as of December 31, 2020 would result in a $0.6 billion change in the U.S. dollar value of the foreign currency denominated remaining payments.

Fuel Price Risk

Our exposure to market risk for changes in fuel prices relates to the forecasted purchases of fuel on our ships. Fuel expense, as a percentage of our total cruise operating expense, was 15.6% for the year ended December 31, 2020 and 11.2% for the year ended December 31, 2019. We use fuel derivative agreements to mitigate the financial impact of fluctuations in fuel prices and as of December 31, 2020, excluding fuel swaps for transactions that are no longer probable of occurrence, we had hedged approximately 59%, 37% and 15% of our 2021, 2022 and 2023 projected metric tons of fuel purchases, respectively. As of December 31, 2019, we had hedged approximately 50% and 18% of our 2021 and 2022 projected metric tons of fuel purchases, respectively. Additional hedges were executed between December 31, 2019 to December 31, 2020 to lower our fuel price risk.

We estimate that a 10% increase in our weighted-average fuel price would increase our anticipated 2021 fuel expense by $29.5 million. This increase would be partially offset by an increase in the fair value of our fuel swap agreements of $17.5 million. Fair value of our derivative contracts is derived using valuation models that utilize the income valuation approach. These valuation models take into account the contract terms such as maturity, as well as other inputs such as fuel types, fuel curves, creditworthiness of the counterparty and the Company, as well as other data points.

​

Previous: Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations · Next: Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data