Item 1A. Risk Factors
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Item 1A. Risk Factors
We refer you to our Annual Report on Form 10-K for a discussion of the risk factors that affect our business and financial results. We wish to caution you that the risk factors discussed in “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, elsewhere in this report or other SEC filings, could cause future results to differ materially from those stated in any forward-looking statements. You should not interpret the disclosure of a risk to imply that the risk has not already materialized. COVID-19 has also had the effect of heightening many of the other risks described in the “Risk Factors” included in our Annual Report on Form 10-K, such as those relating to our need to generate sufficient cash flows to service our indebtedness, and our ability to comply with the covenants contained in the agreements that govern our indebtedness.
Other than updates to the risk factors set forth below, there have been no material changes in our risk factors from those disclosed in our Annual Report on Form 10-K.
COVID-19 has had, and is expected to continue to have, a significant impact on our financial condition and operations. The current, and uncertain future, impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, including its effect on the ability or desire of people to travel (including on cruises), is expected to continue to impact our results, operations, outlook, plans, goals, growth, reputation, cash flows, liquidity, demand for voyages and share price.
The spread of COVID-19 and the developments surrounding the global pandemic are having significant negative impacts on all aspects of our business. In March 2020, we implemented a voluntary suspension of all cruise voyages across our three brands. We began resuming cruises voyages in July 2021 on a limited basis and as of the date hereof, eleven of our ships were operating with guests on board as part of our phased return to service. We expect the remaining ships in our fleet will continue incrementally resuming voyage operations through April 1, 2022, but due to the uncertainties surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic, it may take us longer than expected to return our entire fleet to cruise voyage operations and/or the suspension could potentially be reinstated, and the total length of time the majority of our fleet is out of cruise voyage operations or operating at significantly reduced occupancy levels may be prolonged. In addition, we have been, and will continue to be, further negatively impacted by related developments, including
heightened governmental regulations and travel advisories, including recommendations and orders by the U.S. Department of State, the CDC and the Department of Homeland Security, and travel bans and restrictions, each of which has impacted, and is expected to continue to significantly impact, global guest sourcing and our access to various ports of call around the globe. On October 30, 2020, the CDC issued a Conditional Order that introduces a phased approach for the resumption of passenger cruises in the U.S. depending on a cruise line’s ability to implement certain protocols and procedures, which has been extended through January 15, 2022. We have received conditional sailing certificates for certain ships and are in the process of seeking certifications for additional ships in our fleet that will be operating out of the U.S., but our ability to comply with the Conditional Order in the future is unknown. As a result of these and other regulatory requirements and other logistical challenges, the timeline for our ability to return our entire fleet to cruises both in and outside of the U.S. is fluid. Additionally, in the U.S., certain states have enacted legislation prohibiting companies from verifying the vaccination status of guests, which in some instances we have challenged in court. Compliance with the Conditional Order and other regulations involves significant costs and could create significant uncertainties about our ability to continue to operate our cruise voyages in the U.S. We will continue to incur COVID-19 related costs as we implement and maintain health-related protocols on our ships, such as controlled capacity and testing, which have had and may continue to have a significant effect on our operations. In addition, the industry is subject to enhanced health and safety requirements which have been, and may continue to be, costly and take a significant amount of time to implement across our fleet. We have had instances of COVID-19 on our ships and there is no guarantee that the health and safety protocols we implement will be successful in preventing the spread of COVID-19 onboard our ships and among our passengers and crew in the future.
To date, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant costs and lost revenue as a result of the suspension of cruise voyages, implementation of additional health and safety measures, reduced demand for cruise vacations, guest compensation, itinerary modifications, redeployments and cancellations, travel restrictions and advisories, the unavailability of ports and/or destinations, costs to return our passengers to their home destinations and expenses to transport our crew to and from our ships and to assist some of our crew that were unable to return home in an optimal time frame with food and housing.
Our ability to transport crew to and from our ships is dependent on a number of factors, including the ability to transport crew members to and from their home countries due to the limited number of commercial flights and charter options available, and governmental restrictions and regulations with respect to disembarking crew members and travel generally. Additionally, our policy that crew members must be fully vaccinated has created logistical challenges due to limitations on vaccine supplies, logistical complexities relating to vaccinating crew members who reside in different countries around the world and vaccine hesitancy. Such restrictions on crew travel and challenges in making sure our crew members have been vaccinated has impacted and could continue to impact our ability to staff our ships as operations continue to resume.
Between March 12, 2020 and April 30, 2020, three class action lawsuits were filed against us under Sections 10(b) and 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), and Rule 10b-5 promulgated thereunder, alleging that we made false and misleading statements to the market and customers about COVID-19, which were combined and later dismissed in April 2021. In addition, in March 2020 the Florida Attorney General announced an investigation related to our marketing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the announcement of the investigation by the Florida Attorney General, we received notifications from other attorneys general and governmental agencies that they are conducting similar investigations. We may be the subject of additional lawsuits and investigations stemming from COVID-19. We cannot predict the number or outcome of any such proceedings and the impact that they will have on our financial results, but any such impact may be material.
We have nine newbuilds on order, scheduled to be delivered through 2027. The impacts of COVID-19 on the shipyards where our ships are under construction or will be constructed, have resulted in some delays in expected ship deliveries, and the impacts of COVID-19 could result in additional delays in ship deliveries in the future, which may be prolonged.
Due to the unknown duration and extent of the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions, bans and advisories, uncertainties around our ability to comply with the Conditional Order and/or any additional or future regulatory restrictions on our operations, the potential unavailability of ports and/or destinations, unknown cancellations and timing of redeployments and a general impact on consumer sentiment regarding cruise travel, there are continuing uncertainties
about when our full fleet will be back in service at historical occupancy levels. Moreover, demand for cruises may remain weak for a significant length of time and we cannot predict if and when each brand will return to pre-pandemic demand or pricing levels. Due to the discretionary nature of leisure travel spending and the competitive nature of the cruise industry, our revenues are heavily influenced by the condition of the U.S. economy and economies in other regions of the world. Unfavorable conditions in these broader economies have resulted, and may result in the future, in decreased demand for cruise vacations, changes in booking practices and related reactions by our competitors, all of which in turn have had, and may continue to have in the future, a strong negative effect on our business. In particular, our bookings may be negatively impacted by enhanced health and safety protocols, including vaccination requirements, concerns that cruises are susceptible to the spread of infectious diseases as well as adverse changes in the perceived or actual economic climate, including higher unemployment rates, declines in income levels and loss of personal wealth resulting from the impact of COVID-19. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and associated decline in economic activity and increase in unemployment levels are expected to have a severe and prolonged effect on the global economy generally and, in turn, is expected to depress demand for cruise vacations into the foreseeable future. In addition, we cannot predict the impact COVID-19 will have on our partners, such as travel agencies, suppliers and other vendors. We may be adversely impacted by any adverse impact our partners suffer. The global supply chain has also been negatively impacted by COVID-19, which has had an effect on our operations and our ability to source supplies. We cannot predict the impact on our financial performance and our cash flows required for cash refunds of fares for cancelled sailings as a result of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the public’s concern regarding the health and safety of travel, including by cruise ship, and related decreases in demand for travel and cruising. Depending on the timing for bringing our full fleet back in service and number of cancellations, we may be required to provide cash refunds for a substantial portion of the balance of our advanced ticket sales. Accordingly, as a result of these unprecedented circumstances, we cannot predict the full impact of COVID-19 on our business, financial condition and results of operations.
Moreover, our ability to attract and retain guests and crew depends, in part, upon the perception and reputation of our Company and our brands and the public’s concerns regarding the health and safety of travel generally, as well as regarding the cruise industry and our ships. Actual or perceived risk of infection could have an adverse effect on the public’s perception of the Company, which could harm our reputation and business. Additionally, some of our protocols, such as our requirement that all guests and crew must be vaccinated for our initial voyages, may attract negative publicity.
As a result of the impacts of COVID-19, provisions in our credit card processing and other commercial agreements have and may continue to adversely affect our liquidity. We have agreements with several credit card companies to process the sale of tickets and provide other services. Under these agreements, the credit card companies could, under certain circumstances and upon written notice, require us to maintain a reserve, which reserve would be funded by the credit card companies withholding or offsetting our credit card receivables, or our posting of cash or other collateral. As a result of the impacts of COVID-19, we have seen an increase in demand from consumers for refunds on their tickets, and we anticipate this will continue to be the case for the near future. As of September 30, 2021, we had cash reserves of approximately $1.2 billion with credit card processors recognized in accounts receivable, net or other long-term assets. Subsequent to September 30, 2021, $388.3 million in cash reserves have been released to the Company. We may be required to pledge additional collateral and/or post additional cash reserves or take other actions that may further reduce our liquidity. As a consequence, our financial position and liquidity could be further materially impacted.
As a result of all of the foregoing, we will report a net loss for the three months and year ending December 31, 2021 and expect to report a net loss until we are able to resume regular voyages. Our ability to forecast our cash inflows and additional capital needs is hampered, and we could be required to raise additional capital in the future. Our access to and cost of financing will depend on, among other things, global economic conditions, conditions in the global financing markets, the availability of sufficient amounts of financing, the terms and conditions of our existing debt agreements and any agreements governing future indebtedness, our prospects and our credit ratings. Since March 2020, Moody’s has downgraded our long-term issuer rating to B2, our senior secured rating to B1 and our senior unsecured rating to Caa1. Since April 2020, S&P Global has downgraded our issuer credit rating to B, lowered our issue-level rating on our $875 million Revolving Loan Facility and $1.5 billion Term Loan A Facility to BB-, our issue-level rating on our $675 million 2024 Senior Secured Notes and $750 million 2026 Senior Secured Notes to B+ and our senior unsecured rating to B-. If our credit ratings were to be further downgraded, or general market conditions were to ascribe higher risk to our rating levels, our industry, or us, our access to capital and the cost of any debt or equity financing will be further
negatively impacted. Accordingly, there is no guarantee that debt or equity financings will be available in the future to fund our obligations, or that they will be available on terms consistent with our expectations.
The agreements governing our indebtedness contain, and any instruments governing future indebtedness of ours may contain, covenants that impose significant operating and financial restrictions on us, including restrictions or prohibitions on our ability to, among other things: incur or guarantee additional debt or issue certain preference shares; pay dividends on or make distributions in respect of our share capital or make other restricted payments, including the ability of our subsidiaries to pay dividends or make distributions to us; repurchase or redeem capital stock or subordinated indebtedness; make certain investments or acquisitions; transfer, sell or create liens on certain assets; and consolidate or merge with, or sell or otherwise dispose of all or substantially all of our assets to other companies. As a result of these covenants, we are limited in the manner in which we conduct our business, and we may be unable to engage in favorable business activities or finance future operations or capital needs. The terms of any instruments governing future indebtedness may also require us to provide incremental collateral, which may further restrict our business operations.
The extent of the effects of the pandemic on our business and the cruise industry at large is highly uncertain and will ultimately depend on future developments, many of which are outside of our control, including, but not limited to, the duration, spread, severity and any recurrence of the pandemic, the severity and transmission rates of new more contagious and/or vaccine-resistant variants of COVID-19, the availability, distribution, rate of public acceptance and efficacy of vaccines and therapeutics for COVID-19, the duration and scope of related federal, state and local government orders and restrictions, the extent of the impact of COVID-19 on overall demand for cruise vacations and the length of time it takes for demand and pricing to return and normal economic and operating conditions to resume, all of which are highly uncertain and cannot be predicted. COVID-19 has also had the effect of heightening many of the other risks described herein, such as those relating to our need to generate sufficient cash flows to service our indebtedness, and our ability to comply with the covenants contained in the agreements that govern our indebtedness.
Additionally, epidemics, pandemics and viral outbreaks or other wide-ranging health scares in the future would likely also adversely affect our business, financial condition and results of operations.
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