Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
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Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
General
We are exposed to market risk attributable to changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates and fuel prices. We attempt to minimize these risks through a combination of our normal operating and financing activities and through the use of derivatives. The financial impacts of these derivative instruments are primarily offset by corresponding changes in the underlying exposures being hedged. We achieve this by closely matching the notional, term and conditions of the derivatives with the underlying risk being hedged. We do not hold or issue derivatives for trading or other speculative purposes. Derivative positions are monitored using techniques including market valuations and sensitivity analyses.
Interest Rate Risk
As of March 31, 2025, 93% of our debt was fixed and 7% was variable. As of December 31, 2024, 94% of our debt was fixed and 6% was variable. The change in our fixed rate percentage from December 31, 2024 to March 31, 2025 was primarily due to the addition of variable rate debt proportionally higher than the addition of fixed rate debt. Based on our March 31, 2025 outstanding variable rate debt balance, a one percentage point increase in annual Term SOFR interest rates would increase our annual interest expense by approximately $10.3 million excluding the effects of capitalization of interest.
Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Risk
We use foreign currency derivatives to hedge the exposure to volatility in foreign currency exchange rates related to our ship construction contracts denominated in euros. As of March 31, 2025, the payments not hedged aggregated €15.7 billion, or $17.0 billion based on the euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate as of March 31, 2025. As of December 31, 2024, the payments not hedged aggregated €16.0 billion, or $16.6 billion, based on the euro/U.S. dollar exchange rate as of December 31, 2024. The change from December 31, 2024 to March 31, 2025 was primarily due to the delivery of Norwegian Aqua offset by an increase in the contract prices or our Norwegian ships to be delivered from 2030 through
- We estimate that a 10% change in the euro as of March 31, 2025 would result in a $1.7 billion change in the U.S. dollar value of the foreign currency denominated remaining payments.
Fuel Price Risk
Our exposure to market risk for changes in fuel prices relates to the forecasted purchases of fuel on our ships. Fuel expense, as a percentage of our total cruise operating expense, was 13.4% and 14.3% for the three months ended March 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively. We use fuel derivative agreements to mitigate the financial impact of fluctuations in fuel prices and as of March 31, 2025, we had hedged approximately 61%, 41% and 18% of our remaining 2025, 2026 and 2027 projected metric tons of fuel purchases, respectively. As of December 31, 2024, we had hedged approximately 56% and 21% of our 2025 and 2026 projected metric tons of fuel purchases, respectively. The percentage of fuel purchases hedged changed between December 31, 2024 and March 31, 2025 primarily due to additional fuel swaps.
We estimate that a 10% increase in our weighted-average fuel price would increase our anticipated 2025 fuel expense by $43.6 million. This increase would be offset by an increase in the fair value of all our fuel swap agreements of $23.4 million. Fair value of our derivative contracts is derived using valuation models that utilize the income valuation approach. These valuation models take into account the contract terms such as maturity, as well as other inputs such as fuel types, fuel curves, creditworthiness of the counterparty and the Company, as well as other data points.
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