Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (dollars in millions, except per ounce and per pound amounts).
8K characters. Original on sec.gov · Markdown
Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (dollars in millions, except per ounce and per pound amounts).
Metal Prices
Changes in the market price of gold significantly affect our profitability and cash flow. Gold prices can fluctuate widely due to numerous factors, such as demand; forward selling by producers; central bank sales, purchases and lending; investor sentiment; the strength of the U.S. dollar; inflation, deflation, or other general price instability; and global mine production levels. Changes in the market price of copper, silver, lead and zinc also affect our profitability and cash flow. These metals are traded on established international exchanges and prices generally reflect market supply and demand, but can also be influenced by speculative trading in the commodity or by currency exchange rates. The Company does not currently hold instruments that are designated to hedge against the potential impacts due to market price changes in metals. Consideration of these impacts are discussed below.
Decreases in the market price of metals can significantly affect the value of our product inventory, stockpiles and leach pad inventory, and it may be necessary to record a write-down to the net realizable value. Net realizable value represents the estimated future sales price based on short-term and long-term metals prices, less estimated costs to complete production and bring the product to sale. The primary factors that influence the need to record write-downs of our stockpiles, leach pads and product inventory include short-term and long-term metals prices and costs for production inputs such as labor, fuel and energy, materials and supplies as well as realized ore grades and recovery rates. The significant assumptions in determining the stockpile, leach pad and product inventory adjustments for each mine site reporting unit at December 31, 2021 included production cost and capitalized expenditure assumptions unique to each operation, and the following short-term and long-term assumptions:
| Short-term Assumption | Long-term Assumption | ||||||||||
| Gold price (per ounce) | $ | 1,795 | $ | 1,500 | |||||||
| Copper price (per pound) | $ | 4.40 | $ | 3.00 | |||||||
| Silver price (per ounce) | $ | 23.33 | $ | 20.00 | |||||||
| Lead price (per pound) | $ | 1.06 | $ | 1.05 | |||||||
| Zinc price (per pound) | $ | 1.53 | $ | 1.30 | |||||||
| U.S. to Australian dollar exchange rate | $ | 0.73 | $ | 0.77 | |||||||
| U.S. to Canadian dollar exchange rate | $ | 0.79 | $ | 0.80 | |||||||
| U.S. dollar to Mexican Peso exchange rate | $ | 0.05 | $ | 0.05 | |||||||
| U.S. dollar to Argentinian Peso exchange rate | $ | 0.01 | $ | 0.01 |
The net realizable value measurement involves the use of estimates and assumptions unique to each mining operation regarding current and future operating and capital costs, metal recoveries, production levels, commodity prices, proven and probable reserve quantities, engineering data and other factors. A high degree of judgment is involved in determining such assumptions and estimates and no assurance can be given that actual results will not differ significantly from those estimates and assumptions. For information concerning the sensitivity of our stockpiles and ore on leach pads to changes in metal price, see the Critical Accounting Estimates section in Item 7, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Consolidated Financial Condition and Results of Operation.
Decreases in the market price of metals can also significantly impact our impairment analysis for long-lived assets and goodwill. For information concerning the sensitivity of our impairment analysis over long-lived assets and goodwill to changes in metal price, see the Critical Accounting Estimates section in Item 7, Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Consolidated Financial Condition and Results of Operation, and Note 2 and Note 20 to the Consolidated Financial Statements.
Interest Rate Risk
We are subject to interest rate risk related to the fair value of our senior notes which consist of fixed rates. For fixed rate debt, changes in interest rates generally affect the fair value of the debt instrument, but not our earnings or cash flows. The terms of our fixed rate debt obligations do not generally allow investors to demand payment of these obligations prior to maturity. Therefore, we do not have significant exposure to interest rate risk for our fixed rate debt; however, we do have exposure to fair value risk if we repurchase or exchange long-term debt prior to maturity which could be material. See Note 15 to our Consolidated Financial Statements for further information pertaining to the fair value of our fixed rate debt.
Foreign Currency
In addition to our operations in the United States, we have significant operations and/or assets in Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia and Ghana. All of our operations sell their gold, copper, silver, lead and zinc production based on U.S. dollar metal prices. Foreign currency exchange rates can fluctuate widely due to numerous factors, such as supply and demand for foreign and U.S. currencies and U.S. and foreign country economic conditions. Fluctuations in the local currency exchange rates in relation to the U.S. dollar can increase or decrease profit margins, cash flow and Costs applicable to sales per ounce/ pound to the extent costs are paid in local currency at foreign operations.
Commodity Price Exposure
Our provisional metal sales contain an embedded derivative that is required to be separated from the host contract for accounting purposes. The host contract is the receivable from the sale of the respective metal concentrates at the prevailing indices’ prices at the time of sale. The embedded derivative, which is not designated for hedge accounting, is marked to market through earnings each period prior to final settlement.
We perform an analysis on the provisional concentrate sales to determine the potential impact to Net income (loss) attributable to Newmont stockholders for each 10% change to the average price on the provisional concentrate sales subject to final pricing over the next several months. Refer below for our analysis as of December 31, 2021.
| Provisionally Priced Sales Subject to Final Pricing | Average Provisional Price (per ounce/pound) | Effect of 10% change in Average Price (millions) | Market Closing Settlement Price (1) (per ounce/pound) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold (ounces/thousands) | 171 | $ | 1,807 | $ | 20 | $ | 1,806 | ||||||||||||||||
| Copper (pounds/millions) | 25 | $ | 4.39 | $ | 8 | $ | 4.40 | ||||||||||||||||
| Silver (ounces/millions) | 5 | $ | 23.09 | $ | 7 | $ | 23.09 | ||||||||||||||||
| Lead (pounds/millions) | 22 | $ | 1.06 | $ | 1 | $ | 1.06 | ||||||||||||||||
| Zinc (pounds/millions) | 58 | $ | 1.62 | $ | 6 | $ | 1.65 |
____________________________
(1)The closing settlement price as of December 31, 2021 is determined utilizing the London Metal Exchange for copper, lead and zinc and the LBMA for gold and silver.
Previous: Item 6. RESERVED · Next: Item 8. FINANCIAL STATEMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTARY DATA