Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (dollars in millions, except per ounce and per pound amounts).
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Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (dollars in millions, except per ounce and per pound amounts).
Metal Prices
Changes in the market price of gold significantly affect our profitability and cash flow. Gold prices can fluctuate widely due to numerous factors, such as demand; forward selling by producers; central bank sales, purchases and lending; investor sentiment; the strength of the USD; inflation, deflation, or other general price instability; and global mine production levels. Changes in the market price of copper, silver, lead and zinc also affect our profitability and cash flow. These metals are traded on established international exchanges and prices generally reflect market supply and demand but can also be influenced by speculative trading in the commodity or by currency exchange rates.
Decreases in the market price of metals can also significantly affect the value of our product inventory, stockpiles and leach pads, and it may be necessary to record a write-down to the net realizable value, as well as significantly impact our carrying value of
long-lived assets and goodwill. Refer to Part II, Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022 for information regarding the sensitivity of our impairment analyses over long-lived assets and goodwill to changes in metal price.
Net realizable value represents the estimated future sales price based on short-term and long-term metals prices, less estimated costs to complete production and bring the product to sale. The primary factors that influence the need to record write-downs of our stockpiles, leach pads and product inventory include short-term and long-term metals prices and costs for production inputs such as labor, fuel and energy, materials and supplies as well as realized ore grades and recovery rates.
The significant assumptions in determining the stockpile, leach pad and product inventory adjustments for each mine site reporting unit at September 30, 2023 included production cost and capitalized expenditure assumptions unique to each operation and short-term and long-term assumptions as follows:
| Short-Term | Long-Term | ||||||||||
| Gold price (per ounce) | $ | 1,928 | $ | 1,600 | |||||||
| Copper price (per pound) | $ | 3.79 | $ | 3.75 | |||||||
| Silver price (per ounce) | $ | 23.57 | $ | 22.00 | |||||||
| Lead price (per pound) | $ | 0.98 | $ | 0.90 | |||||||
| Zinc price (per pound) | $ | 1.10 | $ | 1.25 | |||||||
| AUD to USD exchange rate | $ | 0.65 | $ | 0.70 | |||||||
| CAD to USD exchange rate | $ | 0.75 | $ | 0.78 | |||||||
| MXN to USD exchange rate | $ | 0.06 | $ | 0.05 |
The net realizable value measurement involves the use of estimates and assumptions unique to each mining operation regarding current and future operating and capital costs, metal recoveries, production levels, commodity prices, proven and probable reserve quantities, engineering data and other factors. A high degree of judgment is involved in determining such assumptions and estimates and no assurance can be given that actual results will not differ significantly from those estimates and assumptions.
Interest Rate Risk
We are subject to interest rate risk related to the fair value of our senior notes which consist of fixed rates. For fixed rate debt, changes in interest rates generally affect the fair value of the debt instrument, but not our earnings or cash flows. The terms of our fixed rate debt obligations do not generally allow investors to demand payment of these obligations prior to maturity. Therefore, we do not have significant exposure to interest rate risk for our fixed rate debt; however, we do have exposure to fair value risk if we repurchase or exchange long-term debt prior to maturity which could be material. See Note 9 to our Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements for further information pertaining to the fair value of our fixed rate debt.
Foreign Currency
In addition to our operations in the U.S., we have significant operations and/or assets in Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia and Ghana. All of our operations sell their gold, copper, silver, lead and zinc production based on USD metal prices. Foreign currency exchange rates can fluctuate widely due to numerous factors, such as supply and demand for foreign and U.S. currencies and U.S. and foreign country economic conditions. Fluctuations in the local currency exchange rates in relation to the USD can increase or decrease profit margins, capital expenditures, cash flow and Costs applicable to sales per ounce/ pound to the extent costs are paid in local currency at foreign operations.
We performed a sensitivity analysis to estimate the impact to Costs applicable to sales per ounce arising from a hypothetical 10% adverse movement to local currency exchange rates at September 30, 2023 in relation to the U.S. dollar at our foreign mining operations. The sensitivity analyses indicated that a hypothetical 10% adverse movement would result in an approximate $60 increase to Costs applicable to sales per ounce at September 30, 2023.
Hedging
In May 2023, the Company entered into C$348 of CAD-denominated and A$648 of AUD-denominated fixed forward contracts to mitigate variability in the USD functional cash flows related to the CAD-denominated and AUD-denominated operating expenditures expected to be incurred in 2023 included in the Company's operations located in Canada and Australia, respectively. The Company has designated the fixed forward contracts as foreign currency cash flow hedges against the forecasted CAD-denominated and AUD-denominated operating expenditures.
In October 2022, the Company entered into A$574 of AUD-denominated fixed forward contracts to mitigate variability in the USD functional cash flows related to the AUD-denominated capital expenditures expected to be incurred in 2023 and 2024 during the construction and development phase of the Tanami Expansion 2 project. The Company has designated the forward contracts as foreign currency cash flow hedges against the forecasted AUD-denominated Tanami Expansion 2 capital expenditures.
By using hedges, we are affected by market risk, credit risk, and market liquidity risk. Market risk is the risk that the fair value of a derivative might be adversely affected by a change in currency exchange rates, and that this in turn affects our financial condition. We manage market risk by establishing and monitoring parameters that limit the types and degree of market risk that may be undertaken. We mitigate this potential risk to our financial condition by establishing trading agreements with counterparties under which we are not required to post any collateral or be subject to any margin calls on our derivatives. Our counterparties cannot require settlement solely because of an adverse change in the fair value of a derivative. We have performed a sensitivity analysis as of September 30, 2023, using a modeling technique that measures the change in the fair values arising from a hypothetical 10% adverse movement in the AUD and CAD foreign currency exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar, with all other variables held constant. The analysis covered all of our AUD and CAD-denominated fixed forward contracts. The foreign currency exchange rates we used in performing the sensitivity analysis were based on AUD and CAD market rates in effect at September 30, 2023. The sensitivity analyses indicated that a hypothetical 10% adverse movement in foreign currency exchange rates would result in an approximate decrease in the fair value of the hedging derivative instruments of $47 at September 30, 2023.
Credit risk is the risk that a third party might fail to fulfill its performance obligations under the terms of a financial instrument. We mitigate credit risk by entering into derivatives with high credit quality counterparties, limiting the amount of exposure to each counterparty and monitoring the financial condition of the counterparties.
Market liquidity risk is the risk that a derivative cannot be eliminated quickly, by either liquidating it or by establishing an offsetting position. Under the terms of our trading agreements, counterparties cannot require us to immediately settle outstanding derivatives, except upon the occurrence of customary events of default such as covenant breaches, including financial covenants, insolvency or bankruptcy. We further mitigate market liquidity risk by spreading out the maturity of our derivatives over time.
Commodity Price Exposure
Our provisional concentrate sales contain an embedded derivative that is required to be separated from the host contract for accounting purposes. The host contract is the receivable from the sale of the respective metal concentrates at the prevailing indices’ prices at the time of sale. The embedded derivative, which is not designated for hedge accounting, is marked to market through earnings each period prior to final settlement.
We perform an analysis on the provisional concentrate sales to determine the potential impact to Net income (loss) attributable to Newmont stockholders for each 10% change to the average price on the provisional concentrate sales subject to final pricing over the next several months. Refer below for our analysis as of September 30, 2023.
| Gold | Copper | Silver | Lead | Zinc | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (ounces, in thousands) | (pounds, in millions) | (ounces, in thousands) | (pounds, in millions) | (pounds, in millions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Provisionally priced sales subject to final pricing (1) | 76 | 34 | 48 | — | 10 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Average provisional price, per measure | $ | 1,851 | $ | 3.75 | $ | 22.22 | $ | — | $ | 1.20 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Effect of 10% price change in average price, in millions | $ | 10 | $ | 9 | $ | — | $ | — | $ | 1 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Market closing settlement price, per measure (2) | $ | 1,871 | $ | 3.73 | $ | 23.08 | $ | 1.00 | $ | 1.20 |
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(1)Includes provisionally priced by-product sales subject to final pricing, which are recognized in Costs applicable to sales.
(2)The closing settlement price as of September 30, 2023 is determined utilizing the London Metal Exchange for copper, lead and zinc and the London Bullion Market Association for gold and silver.
ITEM 4. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES.
During the fiscal period covered by this report, the Company’s management, with the participation of the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, carried out an evaluation of the effectiveness of the design and operation of the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) of the Exchange Act, as amended). Based on such evaluation, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer have concluded that, as of the end of the period covered by this report, the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures are effective to ensure that information required to be disclosed by the Company in reports that it files or submits under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the required time periods and are designed to ensure that information required to be disclosed in its reports is accumulated and communicated to the Company’s management, including the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, as appropriate to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure.
There were no changes in the Company’s internal control over financial reporting that occurred during the three months ended September 30, 2023, that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.
PART II—OTHER INFORMATION
ITEM 1. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS.
Information regarding legal proceedings is contained in Note 18 of the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements contained in this report and is incorporated herein by reference.
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