Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (dollars in millions, except per ounce and per pound amounts).
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Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK (dollars in millions, except per ounce and per pound amounts).
Metal Prices
Changes in the market price of gold significantly affect our profitability and cash flow. Gold prices can fluctuate widely due to numerous factors, such as demand; forward selling by producers; central bank sales, purchases and lending; investor sentiment; the strength of the USD; inflation, deflation, or other general price instability; and global mine production levels. Changes in the market price of copper, silver, lead and zinc also affect our profitability and cash flow. These metals are traded on established international exchanges and prices generally reflect market supply and demand but can also be influenced by speculative trading in the commodity or by currency exchange rates. The Company does not currently hold instruments that are designated to hedge against the potential impacts due to market price changes in metals. Consideration of these impacts are discussed below.
Decreases in the market price of metals can also significantly affect the value of our product inventory, stockpiles and leach pads, and it may be necessary to record a write-down to the net realizable value, as well as significantly impact our carrying value of long-lived assets and goodwill. Refer to Part II, Item 7 of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 for information regarding the sensitivity of our impairment analyses over long-lived assets and goodwill to changes in metal price.
Net realizable value represents the estimated future sales price based on short-term and long-term metals prices, less estimated costs to complete production and bring the product to sale. The primary factors that influence the need to record write-downs of our stockpiles, leach pads and product inventory include short-term and long-term metals prices and costs for production inputs such as labor, fuel and energy, materials and supplies as well as realized ore grades and recovery rates.
The significant assumptions in determining the stockpile, leach pad and product inventory adjustments for each mine site reporting unit at March 31, 2024 included production cost and capitalized expenditure assumptions unique to each operation, and the following short-term and long-term assumptions:
| Short-Term | Long-Term | ||||||||||
| Gold price (per ounce) | $ | 2,070 | $ | 1,700 | |||||||
| Copper price (per pound) | $ | 3.83 | $ | 3.75 | |||||||
| Silver price (per ounce) | $ | 23.34 | $ | 22.00 | |||||||
| Lead price (per pound) | $ | 0.94 | $ | 0.90 | |||||||
| Zinc price (per pound) | $ | 1.11 | $ | 1.25 | |||||||
| AUD to USD exchange rate | $ | 0.66 | $ | 0.70 | |||||||
| CAD to USD exchange rate | $ | 0.74 | $ | 0.75 | |||||||
| MXN to USD exchange rate | $ | 0.06 | $ | 0.05 |
The net realizable value measurement involves the use of estimates and assumptions unique to each mining operation regarding current and future operating and capital costs, metal recoveries, production levels, commodity prices, proven and probable reserve quantities, engineering data and other factors. A high degree of judgment is involved in determining such assumptions and estimates and no assurance can be given that actual results will not differ significantly from those estimates and assumptions.
Interest Rate Risk
We are subject to interest rate risk related to the fair value of our senior notes which is wholly comprised of fixed rates at March 31, 2024. For fixed rate debt, changes in interest rates generally affect the fair value of the debt instrument, but not our earnings or cash flows. The terms of our fixed rate debt obligations do not generally allow investors to demand payment of these obligations prior to maturity. Therefore, we do not have significant exposure to interest rate risk for our fixed rate debt; however, we do have exposure to fair value risk if we repurchase or exchange long-term debt prior to maturity which could be material. See Note 11 to our Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements for further information pertaining to the fair value of our fixed rate debt.
Foreign Currency
In addition to our operations in the U.S., we have significant operations and/or assets in Canada, Mexico, Dominican Republic, Peru, Suriname, Argentina, Chile, Australia, Papua New Guinea, Ecuador, Fiji and Ghana. All of our operations sell their gold, copper, silver, lead and zinc production based on USD metal prices. Foreign currency exchange rates can fluctuate widely due to numerous factors, such as supply and demand for foreign and U.S. currencies and U.S. and foreign country economic conditions. Fluctuations in the local currency exchange rates in relation to the USD can increase or decrease profit margins, capital expenditures, cash flow and Costs applicable to sales per ounce to the extent costs are paid in local currency at foreign operations.
We performed a sensitivity analysis to estimate the impact to Costs applicable to sales per ounce arising from a hypothetical 10% adverse movement to local currency exchange rates at March 31, 2024 in relation to the U.S. dollar at our foreign mining operations. The sensitivity analyses indicated that a hypothetical 10% adverse movement would result in an approximate $103 increase to Costs applicable to sales per ounce at March 31, 2024.
Commodity Price Exposure
Our provisional concentrate sales contain an embedded derivative that is required to be separated from the host contract for accounting purposes. The host contract is the receivable from the sale of the respective metal concentrates at the prevailing indices’ prices at the time of sale. The embedded derivative, which is not designated for hedge accounting, is marked to market through earnings each period prior to final settlement.
We perform an analysis on the provisional concentrate sales to determine the potential impact to Net income (loss) attributable to Newmont stockholders for each 10% change to the average price on the provisional concentrate sales subject to final pricing over the next several months. Refer below for our analysis as of March 31, 2024.
| Provisionally Priced Sales Subject to Final Pricing (1) | Average Provisional Price (per ounce/pound) | Effect of 10% change in Average Price (millions) | Market Closing Settlement Price (2) (per ounce/pound) | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Gold (ounces, in thousands) | 209 | $ | 2,222 | $ | 32 | $ | 2,214 | ||||||||||||||||
| Copper (pounds, in millions) | 76 | $ | 3.99 | $ | 21 | $ | 3.96 | ||||||||||||||||
| Silver (ounces, in millions) | 5 | $ | 24.82 | $ | 9 | $ | 24.54 | ||||||||||||||||
| Lead (pounds, in millions) | 46 | $ | 0.92 | $ | 3 | $ | 0.89 | ||||||||||||||||
| Zinc (pounds, in millions) | 87 | $ | 1.10 | $ | 6 | $ | 1.08 | ||||||||||||||||
| Molybdenum (pounds, in millions) (3) | 1 | $ | 19.81 | $ | 2 | $ | 19.99 |
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(1)Includes provisionally priced by-product sales subject to final pricing, which are recognized in Costs applicable to sales.
(2)The closing settlement price as of March 31, 2024 is determined utilizing the London Metal Exchange for copper, lead and zinc and the London Bullion Market Association for gold and silver.
(3)Molybdenum is a by-product at the Cadia site and is recognized as a reduction to Costs applicable to sales.
Hedging Instruments
The Company's hedging instruments consisted of the Cadia Power Purchase Agreement ("Cadia PPA") and foreign currency cash flow hedges at March 31, 2024, which were entered into to mitigate variability in cash flows related to certain commodity prices and foreign currency impacts, respectively. By using hedges, we are affected by market risk, credit risk, and market liquidity risk.
Market Risk
Market risk is the risk that the fair value of a derivative might be adversely affected by a change in commodity prices or currency exchange rates, and that this in turn affects our financial condition. We manage market risk by establishing and monitoring parameters that limit the types and degree of market risk that may be undertaken. We mitigate this potential risk to our financial condition by establishing trading agreements with counterparties under which we are not required to post any collateral or be subject to any margin calls on our derivatives. Our counterparties cannot require settlement solely because of an adverse change in the fair value of a derivative.
In October 2022, the Company entered into A$574 of AUD-denominated fixed forward contracts to mitigate variability in the USD functional cash flows related to the AUD-denominated capital expenditures expected to be incurred in 2023 and 2024 during the construction and development phase of the Tanami Expansion 2 project included in the Company's Tanami segment. The Company has designated the forward contracts as foreign currency cash flow hedges against the forecasted AUD-denominated Tanami Expansion 2 capital expenditures. We have performed a sensitivity analysis as of March 31, 2024, using a modeling technique that measures the change in the fair values arising from a hypothetical 10% adverse movement in the AUD foreign currency exchange rates relative to the U.S. dollar, with all other variables held constant. The foreign currency exchange rates we used in performing the sensitivity analysis were based on AUD market rates in effect at March 31, 2024. The sensitivity analyses indicated that a hypothetical 10% adverse movement in foreign currency exchange rates would result in an approximate decrease in the fair value of the foreign currency cash flow hedges of $9 at March 31, 2024.
The Cadia PPA is a 15-year renewable power purchase agreement acquired by the Company through the Newcrest transaction. At January 1, 2024, the Company designated the Cadia PPA in a cash flow hedging relationship to mitigate variability in cash flows related to approximately 40% of the Company's forecasted purchases of power at the Cadia mine for a 15 year period from the Cadia PPA's commercial operations date, which is expected in the third quarter of 2024. The Cadia PPA was transacted for risk management purposes. We have performed a sensitivity analysis as of March 31, 2024, using a modeling technique that measures the change in the fair values arising from a hypothetical 10% adverse movement in the forward electricity rates relative to current rates, with all other variables held constant. The sensitivity analyses indicated that a hypothetical 10% adverse movement would result in an approximate decrease in the fair value of the Cadia PPA cash flow hedge of $37 at March 31, 2024.
Credit Risk
Credit risk is the risk that a third party might fail to fulfill its performance obligations under the terms of a financial instrument. We mitigate credit risk by entering into derivatives with high credit quality counterparties, limiting the amount of exposure to each counterparty and monitoring the financial condition of the counterparties.
Market Liquidity Risk
Market liquidity risk is the risk that a derivative cannot be eliminated quickly, by either liquidating it or by establishing an offsetting position. Under the terms of our trading agreements, counterparties cannot require us to immediately settle outstanding derivatives, except upon the occurrence of customary events of default such as covenant breaches, including financial covenants, insolvency or bankruptcy. We further mitigate market liquidity risk by spreading out the maturity of our derivatives over time.
ITEM 4. CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES.
During the fiscal period covered by this report, the Company’s management, with the participation of the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer of the Company, carried out an evaluation of the effectiveness of the design and operation of the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures (as defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15d-15(e) of the Exchange Act, as amended). Based on such evaluation, the Company’s Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer have concluded that, as of the end of the period covered by this report, the Company’s disclosure controls and procedures are effective to ensure that information required to be disclosed by the Company in reports that it files or submits under the Exchange Act is recorded, processed, summarized and reported within the required time periods and are designed to ensure that information required to be disclosed in its reports is accumulated and communicated to the Company’s management, including the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer, as appropriate to allow timely decisions regarding required disclosure.
On November 6, 2023, the Company completed the acquisition of Newcrest Mining Limited (“Newcrest”) which operated under its own set of systems and internal controls. During the three months ended March 31, 2024, the Company transitioned certain of Newcrest’s processes to the Company’s internal control processes and added other internal controls over significant processes specific to the tangible and intangible assets acquired and liabilities assumes as a result of the acquisition, and to post-acquisition activities, including internal controls associated with the valuation of certain assets acquired and liabilities assumed in the transaction. The Company will continue the process of integrating internal controls over financial reporting for Newcrest and plans to incorporate Newcrest in the evaluation of internal controls over financial reporting beginning in the fourth quarter of 2024.
There were no other changes in the Company’s internal control over financial reporting that occurred during the three months ended March 31, 2024, that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.
PART II—OTHER INFORMATION
ITEM 1. LEGAL PROCEEDINGS.
Information regarding legal proceedings is contained in Note 20 of the Condensed Consolidated Financial Statements contained in this report and is incorporated herein by reference.
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