NRG Energy 10-Q 2023-09-30

UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION

Washington, D.C. 20549

FORM 10-Q

Commission File Number: 001-15891

NRG Energy, Inc.

(Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter)

**(**713) 537-3000

(Registrant’s telephone number, including area code)

Securities registered pursuant to Section 12(b) of the Act:

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant (1) has filed all reports required to be filed by Section 13 or 15(d) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to file such reports), and (2) has been subject to such filing requirements for the past 90 days.

Yes ☒ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant has submitted electronically every Interactive Data File required to be submitted pursuant to Rule 405 of Regulation S-T (§232.405 of this chapter) during the preceding 12 months (or for such shorter period that the registrant was required to submit such files).

Yes ☒ No ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a large accelerated filer, an accelerated filer, a non-accelerated filer, a smaller reporting company or an emerging growth company. See the definitions of “large accelerated filer,” “accelerated filer,” “smaller reporting company,” and "emerging growth company" in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act.

If an emerging growth company, indicate by check mark if the registrant has elected not to use the extended transition period for complying with any new or revised financial accounting standards provided pursuant to Section 13(a) of the Exchange Act. ☐

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant is a shell company (as defined in Rule 12b-2 of the Exchange Act).

Yes ☐ No ☒

As of October 31, 2023, there were 225,764,436 shares of common stock outstanding, par value $0.01 per share.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Index

CAUTIONARY STATEMENT REGARDING FORWARD-LOOKING INFORMATION

This Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q of NRG Energy, Inc., or NRG or the Company, includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Securities Act, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, or the Exchange Act. The words "believes," "projects," "anticipates," "plans," "expects," "intends," "estimates," "should," "forecasts," and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, many of which are beyond NRG's control, that may cause NRG's actual results, performance and achievements, or industry results, to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future results. These factors, risks and uncertainties include the factors described under Risk Factors, in Part II, Item 1A of this Form 10-Q and the following:

• Business uncertainties related to NRG's ability to integrate the operations of Vivint Smart Home with its own;

• NRG's ability to obtain and maintain retail market share;

• General economic conditions, changes in the wholesale power and gas markets and fluctuations in the cost of fuel;

• Volatile power and gas supply costs and demand for power and gas, including the impacts of weather;

• Changes in law, including judicial and regulatory decisions;

• Hazards customary to the power production industry and power generation operations, such as fuel and electricity price volatility, unusual weather conditions, catastrophic weather-related or other damage to facilities, unscheduled generation outages, maintenance or repairs, unanticipated changes to fuel supply costs or availability due to higher demand, shortages, transportation problems or other developments, environmental incidents, or electric transmission or gas pipeline system constraints and the possibility that NRG may not have adequate insurance to cover losses as a result of such hazards;

• The effectiveness of NRG's risk management policies and procedures and the ability of NRG's counterparties to satisfy their financial commitments;

• NRG's ability to enter into contracts to sell power or gas and procure fuel on acceptable terms and prices;

• NRG's ability to successfully integrate, realize cost savings and manage any acquired businesses;

• NRG's ability to engage in successful acquisitions and divestitures, as well as other mergers and acquisitions activity;

• Cyber terrorism and cybersecurity risks, data breaches or the occurrence of a catastrophic loss and the possibility that NRG may not have sufficient insurance to cover losses resulting from such hazards or the inability of NRG's insurers to provide coverage;

• Counterparties' collateral demands and other factors affecting NRG's liquidity position and financial condition;

• NRG's ability to operate its businesses efficiently and generate earnings and cash flows from its asset-based businesses in relation to its debt and other obligations;

• The liquidity and competitiveness of wholesale markets for energy commodities;

• Government regulation, including changes in market rules, rates, tariffs and environmental laws;

• NRG's ability to develop and innovate new products, as retail and wholesale markets continue to change and evolve;

• Price mitigation strategies and other market structures employed by ISOs or RTOs that result in a failure to adequately and fairly compensate NRG's generation units;

• NRG's ability to mitigate forced outage risk;

• NRG's ability to borrow funds and access capital markets, as well as NRG's substantial indebtedness and the possibility that NRG may incur additional indebtedness in the future;

• Operating and financial restrictions placed on NRG and its subsidiaries that are contained in NRG's corporate credit agreements, and in debt and other agreements of certain of NRG subsidiaries and project affiliates generally;

• The ability of NRG and its counterparties to develop and build new power generation facilities;

• NRG's ability to implement its strategy of finding ways to meet the challenges of climate change, clean air and protecting natural resources, while taking advantage of business opportunities;

• NRG's ability to increase cash from operations through operational and market initiatives, corporate efficiencies, asset strategy, and a range of other programs throughout NRG to reduce costs or generate revenues;

• NRG's ability to successfully evaluate investments and achieve intended financial results in new business and growth initiatives; and

• NRG's ability to develop and maintain successful partnering relationships as needed.

In addition, unlisted factors may present significant additional obstacles to the realization of forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they were made and NRG undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise except as otherwise required by applicable laws. The foregoing factors that could cause NRG's actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in any forward-looking statements included in this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q should not be construed as exhaustive.

GLOSSARY OF TERMS

When the following terms and abbreviations appear in the text of this report, they have the meanings indicated below:

PART I — FINANCIAL INFORMATION

NRG ENERGY, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF OPERATIONS

(Unaudited)

See accompanying notes to condensed consolidated financial statements.

NRG ENERGY, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED STATEMENTS OF COMPREHENSIVE INCOME/(LOSS)

(Unaudited)

See accompanying notes to condensed consolidated financial statements.

NRG ENERGY, INC. AND SUBSIDIARIES

CONDENSED CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEETS

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The discussion and analysis below has been organized as follows:

• Executive summary, including introduction and overview, business strategy, and changes to the business environment during the period, including environmental and regulatory matters;

• Results of operations;

• Liquidity and capital resources including liquidity position, financial condition addressing credit ratings, material cash requirements and commitments, and other obligations; and

• Known trends that may affect NRG's results of operations and financial condition in the future.

As you read this discussion and analysis, refer to NRG's condensed consolidated statements of operations to this Form 10-Q, which present the results of operations for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 and 2022. Also refer to NRG's 2022 Form 10-K, which includes detailed discussions of various items impacting the Company's business, results of operations and financial condition, including: General section; Strategy section; Business Overview section, including how regulation, weather, and other factors affect NRG's business; and Critical Accounting Estimates section.

Executive Summary

Introduction and Overview

NRG Energy, Inc., or NRG or the Company, is a leading energy, smart home and services company fueled by market-leading brands, proprietary technologies, and complementary sales channels. Across the United States and Canada, NRG delivers innovative, sustainable solutions, predominately under brand names such as NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy and Vivint, while also advocating for competitive energy markets and customer choice. The Company has a customer base that includes approximately 7.5 million residential consumers in addition to commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers, supported by approximately 15 GW of generation as of September 30, 2023.

Strategy

NRG's strategy is to maximize stockholder value through the safe production and sale of reliable electricity and natural gas to its customers in the markets it serves, while also providing innovative home solutions to the end-use energy or service consumer. This strategy is intended to enable the Company to optimize the integrated model to generate stable and predictable cash flow, significantly strengthen earnings and cost competitiveness, and lower risk and volatility. Sustainability is a philosophy that underpins and facilitates value creation across NRG's business for its stakeholders. It is an integral piece of NRG's strategy and ties directly to the Company's business success, reduced risks and enhanced reputation.

To effectuate the Company’s strategy, NRG is focused on: (i) serving the energy needs of end-use residential, commercial and industrial, and wholesale counterparties in competitive markets and optimizing on cross selling opportunities through its multiple brands and channels; (ii) offering a variety of energy products and services, including renewable energy solutions and smart home products and services that are differentiated by innovative features, premium service, integrated platforms, sustainability, and loyalty/affinity programs; (iii) excellence in operating performance of its assets; (iv) optimal hedging of its portfolio; and (v) engaging in disciplined and transparent capital allocation.

Energy Regulatory Matters

The Company’s regulatory matters are described in the Company’s 2022 Form 10-K in Item 1, Business — Regulatory Matters. These matters have been updated below and in Note 17, Regulatory Matters.

As participants in wholesale and retail energy markets and owners and operators of power plants, certain NRG entities are subject to regulation by various federal and state government agencies. These include the CFTC, FERC, NRC and the PUCT, as well as other public utility commissions in certain states where NRG's generation or distributed generation assets are located. In addition, NRG is subject to the market rules, procedures and protocols of the various ISO and RTO markets in which it participates. Likewise, certain NRG entities participating in the retail markets are subject to rules and regulations established by the states and provinces in which NRG entities are licensed to sell at retail. NRG must also comply with the mandatory reliability requirements imposed by NERC and the regional reliability entities in the regions where NRG operates.

NRG's operations within the ERCOT footprint are not subject to rate regulation by FERC, as they are deemed to operate solely within the ERCOT market and not in interstate commerce. These operations are subject to regulation by the PUCT, as well as to regulation by the NRC with respect to NRG's ownership interest in STP.

Regional Regulatory Developments

NRG is affected by rule/tariff changes that occur in the ISO regions. For further discussion on regulatory developments, see Note 17, Regulatory Matters.

Texas

Public Utility Commission of Texas’ Actions with Respect to Wholesale Pricing and Market Design — The PUCT continues to analyze and implement multiple options for promoting increased reliability in the wholesale electric market, including the adoption of a reliability standard for resource adequacy and market-based mechanisms to achieve this standard. During the 88th Regular Session, the Texas Legislature authorized deployment of the Performance Credit Mechanism ("PCM"), which will measure real-time contribution to system reliability and provide compensation for resources to be available, subject to certain "guardrails" such as an annual net cost cap, as part of its adoption of the PUCT Sunset Bill (House Bill 1500). The Texas Legislature also directed the PUCT to implement additional market design changes such as the creation of a new ancillary service called Dispatchable Reliability Reserve Service ("DRRS") to further increase ERCOT's capability to manage net load variability and firming requirements for new generation resources which penalize poor performance during periods of low grid reserves. DRRS is expected to be implemented in the fourth quarter of 2024. Additionally, through Senate Bill 2627, the Texas Legislature created the Texas Energy Fund, subject to voter approval in November 2023, which will provide grants and low-interest loans to incentivize the development of more dispatchable generation and smaller backup generation in ERCOT.

Operating Reserve Demand Curve ("ORDC") — On August 3, 2023, the PUCT approved implementation of an enhancement to the ORDC as a bridge solution that was recommended by the ERCOT Technical Advisory Committee and the ERCOT board of directors. The ORDC enhancement will install price floors of $10 and $20 at reserve levels of 7,000 MW and 6,500 MW or below, respectively. ERCOT is expected to complete implementation in the fourth quarter of 2023.

Ruling on Pricing during Winter Storm Uri — On March 17, 2023, the Third Court of Appeals issued a ruling in Luminant Energy Co. v. PUCT, which is an appeal relating to the validity of two orders issued by the PUCT on February 15 and 16, 2021, respectively, governing scarcity pricing in the ERCOT wholesale electricity market during Winter Storm Uri. The Third Court found that the PUCT exceeded its statutory authority by ordering the market price of energy to be set at the high system wide offer cap due to scarcity conditions as a result of firm load shed occurring in ERCOT. The Third Court reversed the PUCT's orders and remanded the case. On March 23, 2023, the PUCT filed a petition for review to the Supreme Court of Texas seeking reversal of the Third Court's decision, which was granted on September 29, 2023. The Court has requested briefing on the merits and has set oral arguments for this case on January 30, 2024. The outcome of this appeal could potentially require a repricing of the market prices during the subject time period.

Voluntary Mitigation Plan ("VMP") Changes — On March 13, 2023, t

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NRG is exposed to several market risks in the Company's normal business activities. Market risk is the potential loss that may result from market changes associated with the Company's retail operations, merchant power generation or with existing or forecasted financial or commodity transactions. The types of market risks the Company is exposed to are commodity price risk, credit risk, liquidity risk, interest rate risk and currency exchange risk. The following disclosures about market risk provide an update to, and should be read in conjunction with, Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk, of the Company's 2022 Form 10-K.

Commodity Price Risk

Commodity price risks result from exposures to changes in spot prices, forward prices, volatilities and correlations between various commodities, such as natural gas, electricity, coal, oil and emissions credits. NRG manages the commodity price risk of the Company's load serving obligations and merchant generation operations by entering into various derivative or non-derivative instruments to hedge the variability in future cash flows from forecasted sales and purchases of energy and fuel. NRG measures the risk of the Company's portfolio using several analytical methods, including sensitivity tests, scenario tests, stress tests, position reports and VaR. NRG uses a Monte Carlo simulation based VaR model to estimate the potential loss in the fair value of its energy assets and liabilities, which includes generation assets, gas transportation and storage assets, load obligations and bilateral physical and financial transactions, based on historical and forward values for factors such as customer demand, weather, commodity availability and commodity prices. The Company's VaR model is based on a one-day holding period at a 95% confidence interval for the forward 36 months, not including the spot month. The VaR model is not a complete picture of all risks that may affect the Company's results. Certain events such as counterparty defaults, regulatory changes, and extreme weather and prices that deviate significantly from historically observed values are not reflected in the model.

The following table summarizes average, maximum and minimum VaR for NRG's commodity portfolio, calculated using the VaR model for the three and nine months ending September 30, 2023 and 2022:

The Company also uses VaR to estimate the potential loss of derivative financial instruments that are subject to mark-to-market accounting. These derivative instruments include transactions that were entered into for both asset management and trading purposes. The VaR for the derivative financial instruments calculated using the diversified VaR model for the entire term of these instruments entered into for both asset management and trading, was $156 million, as of September 30, 2023, primarily driven by asset-backed and hedging transactions.

Credit Risk

Credit risk relates to the risk of loss resulting from non-performance or non-payment by counterparties pursuant to the terms of their contractual obligations. NRG is exposed to counterparty credit risk through various activities including wholesale sales, fuel purchases and retail supply arrangements, and retail customer credit risk through its retail load activities. Counterparty credit risk and retail customer credit risk are discussed below. See Note 7, Accounting for Derivative Instruments and Hedging Activities, to this Form 10-Q for discussion regarding credit risk contingent features.

Counterparty Credit Risk

The Company's counterparty credit risk policies are disclosed in its 2022 Form 10-K. As of September 30, 2023, counterparty credit exposure, excluding credit exposure from RTOs, ISOs, registered commodity exchanges and certain long-term agreements, was $1.7 billion and NRG held collateral (cash and letters of credit) against those positions of $494 million, resulting in a net exposure of $1.2 billion. NRG periodically receives collateral from counterparties in excess of their exposure. Collateral amounts shown include such excess while net exposure shown excludes excess collateral received. Approximately 36% of the Company's exposure before collateral is expected to roll off by the end of 2024. Counterparty credit exposure is valued through observable market quotes and discounted at a risk free interest rate. The following tables highlight net

counterparty credit exposure by industry sector and by counterparty credit quality. Net counterparty credit exposure is defined as the aggregate net asset position for NRG with counterparties where netting is permitted under the enabling agreement and includes all cash flow, mark-to-market and NPNS, and non-derivative transactions. The exposure is shown net of collateral held and includes amounts net of receivables or payables.

(a)Counterparty credit exposure excludes uranium and coal transportation contracts because of the unavailability of market prices

(b)The figures in the tables above exclude potential counterparty credit exposure related to RTOs, ISOs, registered commodity exchanges and certain long-term contracts

The Company currently has exposure to one wholesale counterparty in excess of 10% of total net exposure discussed above as of September 30, 2023. Changes in hedge positions and market prices will affect credit exposure and counterparty concentration.

RTOs and ISOs

The Company participates in the organized markets of CAISO, ERCOT, AESO, IESO, ISO-NE, MISO, NYISO and PJM, known as RTOs or ISOs. Trading in the majority of these markets is approved by FERC, whereas in the case of ERCOT, it is approved by the PUCT, and whereas in the case of AESO and IESO, both exist provincially with AESO primarily subject to Alberta Utilities Commission and the IESO to the Ontario Energy Board. These ISOs may include credit policies that, under certain circumstances, require that losses arising from the default of one member on spot market transactions be shared by the remaining participants. As a result, the counterparty credit risk to these markets is limited to NRG’s share of the overall market and are excluded from the above exposures.

Exchange Traded Transactions

The Company enters into commodity transactions on registered exchanges, notably ICE, NYMEX and Nodal. These clearinghouses act as the counterparty and transactions are subject to extensive collateral and margining requirements. As a result, these commodity transactions have limited counterparty credit risk.

Long-Term Contracts

Counterparty credit exposure described above excludes credit risk exposure under certain long-term contracts, primarily solar under Renewable PPAs. As external sources or observable market quotes are not always available to estimate such exposure, the Company values these contracts based on various techniques including, but not limited to, internal models based on a fundamental analysis of the market and extrapolation of observable market data with similar characteristics. Based on these valuation techniques, as of September 30, 2023, aggregate credit risk exposure managed by NRG to these counterparties was approximately $1.0 billion for the next five years.

Retail Customer Credit Risk

The Company is exposed to retail credit risk through the Company's retail electricity and gas providers as well as through Vivint Smart Home, which serve both Home and Business customers. Retail credit risk results in losses when a customer fails to pay for services rendered. The losses may result from both non-payment of customer accounts receivable and the loss of in-the-money forward value. The Company manages retail credit risk through the use of established credit policies, which include monitoring of the portfolio and the use of credit mitigation measures such as deposits or prepayment arrangements.

As of September 30, 2023, the Company's retail customer credit exposure to Home and Business customers was diversified across many customers and various industries, as well as government entities. Current economic conditions may affect the Company’s customers’ ability to pay bills in a timely manner, which could increase customer delinquencies and may lead to an increase in credit losses.

Liquidity Risk

Liquidity risk arises from the general funding needs of the Company's activities and in the management of the Company's assets and liabilities. The Company is currently exposed to additional collateral posting if natural gas prices decline, primarily due to the long natural gas equivalent position at various exchanges used to hedge NRG's retail supply load obligations.

Based on a sensitivity analysis for power and gas positions under marginable contracts as of September 30, 2023, a $0.50 per MMBtu decrease in natural gas prices across the term of the marginable contracts would cause an increase in margin collateral posted of approximately $1.2 billion and a 1.00 MMBtu/MWh decrease in heat rates for heat rate positions would result in an increase in margin collateral posted of approximately $296 million. This analysis uses simplified assumptions and is calculated based on portfolio composition and margin-related contract provisions as of September 30, 2023.

Interest Rate Risk

NRG is exposed to fluctuations in interest rates through its issuance of variable rate debt. Exposures to interest rate fluctuations may be mitigated by entering into derivative instruments known as interest rate swaps, caps, collars and put or call options. These contracts reduce exposure to interest rate volatility and result in primarily fixed rate debt obligations when taking into account the combinations of the variable rate debt and the interest rate derivative instrument. NRG's management policies allow the Company to reduce interest rate exposure from variable rate debt obligations. In the first quarter of 2023, the Company entered into $1.0 billion of interest rate swaps through 2027 to hedge the floating rate on the Term Loan acquired with the Vivint Smart Home acquisition. Additionally, the Company has entered into interest rate swaps to hedge the floating rate on the Revolving Credit Facility extending through 2024, with $300 million outstanding as of September 30, 2023.

As of September 30, 2023, the fair value and related carrying value of the Company's debt was $10.6 billion and $11.7 billion, respectively. NRG estimates that a 1% decrease in market interest rates would have increased the fair value of the Company's long-term debt as of September 30, 2023 by $848 million.

Currency Exchange Risk

NRG is subject to transactional exchange rate risk from transactions with customers in countries outside of the United States, primarily within Canada, as well as from intercompany transactions between affiliates. Transactional exchange rate risk arises from the purchase and sale of goods and services in currencies other than the Company's functional currency or the functional currency of an applicable subsidiary. NRG hedges a portion of its forecasted currency transactions with foreign exchange forward contracts. As of September 30, 2023, NRG is exposed to changes in foreign currency primarily associated with the purchase of U.S. dollar denominated natural gas for its Canadian business and entered into foreign exchange contracts with a notional amount of $566 million.

The Company is subject to translation exchange rate risk related to the translation of the financial statements of its foreign operations into U.S. dollars. Costs incurred and sales recorded by subsidiaries operating outside of the United States are translated into U.S. dollars using exchange rates effective during the respective period. As a result, the Company is exposed to movements in the exchange rates of various currencies against the U.S. dollar, primarily the Canadian and Australian dollars. A hypothetical 10% appreciation in major currencies relative to the U.S. dollar as of September 30, 2023 would have resulted in a decrease of $23 million to net income within the Consolidated Statement of Operations.

Conclusion Regarding the Effectiveness of Disclosure Controls and Procedures

Under the supervision and with the participation of NRG's management, including its principal executive officer, principal financial officer and principal accounting officer, NRG conducted an evaluation of the effectiveness of the design and operation of its disclosure controls and procedures, as such term is defined in Rules 13a-15(e) or 15d-15(e) of the Exchange Act. Based on this evaluation, the Company's principal executive officer, principal financial officer and principal accounting officer concluded that the disclosure controls and procedures were effective as of the end of the period covered by this Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.

Changes in Internal Control over Financial Reporting

There were no changes in NRG's internal control over financial reporting (as such term is defined in Rule 13a-15(f) under the Exchange Act) that occurred in the quarter ended September 30, 2023 that materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, NRG's internal control over financial reporting.

PART II — OTHER INFORMATION

ITEM 1 — LEGAL PROCEEDINGS

For a discussion of material legal proceedings in which NRG was involved through September 30, 2023, see Note 16, Commitments and Contingencies, to this Form 10-Q.

During the three months ended September 30, 2023, there were no material changes to the Risk Factors disclosed in Part II, Item 1A, Risk Factors, of the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2023, filed with the SEC on May 4, 2023.

ITEM 2 — UNREGISTERED SALES OF EQUITY SECURITIES AND USE OF PROCEEDS

The table below sets forth the information with respect to purchases made by or on behalf of NRG or any "affiliated purchaser" (as defined in Rule 10b-18(a)(3) under the Exchange Act), of NRG's common stock during the quarter ended September 30, 2023.

(a)In June 2023, as part of the revised capital allocation framework, the Company announced an increase to its share repurchase authorization to $2.7 billion to be executed through 2025. The Company began executing under the $2.7 billion authorization in July 2023

(b)The average price paid per share excludes excise taxes and commissions per share paid in connection with the open market share repurchases

(c)Includes commissions of $0.01 per share paid in connection with the open market share repurchases

ITEM 3 — DEFAULTS UPON SENIOR SECURITIES

None.

ITEM 4 — MINE SAFETY DISCLOSURES

There have been no events that are required to be reported under this Item.

During the three months ended September 30, 2023, no director or officer of the Company adopted or terminated a 'Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement' or 'non-Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangement,' as each term is defined in Item 408(a) of Regulation S-K.

SIGNATURES

Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned thereunto duly authorized.