Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Our exposure to market risk discussed below includes forward-looking statements and represents an estimate of possible changes in future earnings that could occur assuming hypothetical future movements in interest rates or commodity prices within our derivative portfolio. Our views on market risk are not necessarily indicative of actual results that may occur and do not represent the maximum possible gains and losses that may occur since actual gains and losses will differ from those estimated based on actual fluctuations in interest rates or commodity prices and the timing of transactions.
We are exposed to market risk due to commodity price and interest-rate volatility. Market risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in market rates and prices. We may use financial instruments, including forward sales, swaps, options and futures, to manage the risks of certain identifiable or anticipated transactions and achieve more predictable cash flows. Our risk-management function follows policies and procedures established by our Risk Oversight and Strategy Committee to monitor our natural gas, NGL, Refined Products, condensate and crude oil marketing activities and interest rates to ensure our hedging activities mitigate market risks and comply with approved thresholds or limits. We do not use financial instruments for trading purposes.
We utilize a sensitivity analysis model to assess the risk associated with our derivative portfolio. The sensitivity analysis measures the potential change in fair value of our derivative instruments based upon a hypothetical 10% movement in the underlying commodity prices or interest rates. In addition to these variables, the fair value of our derivative portfolio is influenced by fluctuations in the notional amounts of the instruments and the discount rates used to determine the present values. Because we enter into these derivative instruments for the purpose of mitigating the risks that accompany certain of our business activities, as described below, the change in the market value of our derivative portfolio would typically be offset largely by a corresponding gain or loss on the hedged item.
See Note A of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report for a discussion on our accounting policies for our derivative instruments and the impact on our Consolidated Financial Statements.
COMMODITY PRICE RISK
As part of our hedging strategy, we use commodity derivative financial instruments and physical-forward contracts described in Note E of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report to reduce the impact of near-term price fluctuations of natural gas, NGLs, Refined Products, condensate and crude oil.
The following table presents the effect a hypothetical 10% change in the underlying commodity prices would have on the estimated fair value of our commodity derivative instruments as of the dates indicated:
| Commodity Contracts | December 31, 2023 | December 31, 2022 | |||||||||
| (Millions of dollars) | |||||||||||
| Refined Products, crude oil and NGLs | $ | 67 | $ | 35 | |||||||
| Natural gas | 5 | 18 | |||||||||
| Total change in estimated fair value of commodity contracts | $ | 72 | $ | 53 |
Our sensitivity analysis represents an estimate of the reasonably possible gains and losses that would be recognized on our commodity derivative contracts assuming hypothetical movements in future market prices and is not necessarily indicative of actual results that may occur. Actual gains and losses may differ from estimates due to actual fluctuations in market prices, as well as changes in our commodity derivative portfolio during the year.
INTEREST-RATE RISK
We are exposed to interest-rate risk through borrowings under our $2.5 Billion Credit Agreement, commercial paper program, term loan agreements and long-term debt issuances. Future increases in commercial paper rates or bond rates could expose us to increased interest costs on future borrowings. We may manage interest-rate risk through the use of fixed-rate debt, floating-rate debt, Treasury locks and interest-rate swaps.
Treasury locks are agreements to pay the difference between the benchmark Treasury rate and the rate that is designated in the terms of the agreement. In the second quarter of 2023, we entered into $1.1 billion of Treasury locks to hedge the variability of interest payments on a portion of our forecasted debt issuances. In the third quarter of 2023, we settled all of our Treasury locks related to our underwritten public offering of $5.25 billion senior unsecured notes associated with the Magellan Acquisition. At both December 31, 2023, and December 31, 2022, we had no outstanding Treasury lock agreements.
Interest-rate swaps are agreements to exchange interest payments at some future point based on specified notional amounts. At December 31, 2022, we had forward-starting interest-rate swaps with notional amounts totaling $0.4 billion to hedge the variability of interest payments on a portion of our forecasted debt issuances. In the third quarter of 2023, we settled all of our $0.4 billion forward-starting interest-rate swaps related to our underwritten public offerings of $5.25 billion senior unsecured notes associated with the Magellan Acquisition. At December 31, 2023, we had no outstanding forward-starting interest-rate swaps.
See Note E of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this Annual Report for more information on our hedging activities.
COUNTERPARTY CREDIT RISK
We assess the creditworthiness of our counterparties on an ongoing basis and require security, including prepayments, letters of credit, liens and other forms of collateral, when appropriate. Certain of our counterparties may be impacted by a relatively low commodity price environment and could experience financial problems, which could result in nonpayment and/or nonperformance, which could impact adversely our results of operations.
Natural Gas Gathering and Processing - Our Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment derives services revenue primarily from major and independent crude oil and natural gas producers, which include both large integrated and independent exploration and production companies. In this segment, our downstream commodity sales customers are primarily utilities, large industrial companies, marketing companies and our NGL affiliate. We are not typically exposed to material credit risk with producers under fee with POP contracts as we sell the commodities and remit a portion of the sales proceeds back to the producer less our contractual fees. In 2023 and 2022, approximately 90% and 95%, respectively, of the downstream commodity sales in our Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment were made to customers rated investment-grade by S&P, approved through comparable internal counterparty analysis or were secured by letters of credit or other collateral.
Natural Gas Liquids - Our Natural Gas Liquids segment’s counterparties are primarily NGL and natural gas gathering and processing companies; major and independent crude oil and natural gas production companies; utilities; large industrial companies; natural gasoline distributors; propane distributors; municipalities; and petrochemical, refining and marketing companies. We charge fees to NGL and natural gas gathering and processing counterparties and NGL pipeline transportation customers. We are not typically exposed to material credit risk on the majority of our exchange services fees, as we purchase NGLs from our gathering and processing counterparties and deduct our fee from the amounts we remit. We also earn sales revenue on the downstream sales of Purity NGLs. In 2023 and 2022, approximately 85% of this segment’s commodity sales were made to customers rated investment-grade by S&P, approved through comparable internal counterparty analysis or were secured by letters of credit or other collateral. In addition, the majority of our Natural Gas Liquids segment’s pipeline tariffs provide us the ability to require security from shippers.
Natural Gas Pipelines - Our Natural Gas Pipelines segment’s customers are primarily local natural gas distribution companies, electric-generation facilities, large industrial companies, municipalities, producers, processors and marketing companies. In 2023 and 2022, approximately 90% of our revenues in this segment were from customers rated investment-grade by S&P, approved through comparable internal counterparty analysis or were secured by letters of credit or other collateral. In addition, the majority of our Natural Gas Pipelines segment’s pipeline tariffs provide us the ability to require security from shippers.
Refined Products and Crude - Our Refined Products and Crude segment’s customers include refiners, wholesalers, retailers, traders, railroads, airlines and regional farm cooperatives. In the fourth quarter of 2023, approximately 70% of our revenues in this segment were from customers rated investment grade by S&P, approved through comparable internal counterparty analysis or were secured by letters of credit, liens, or other collateral.
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