Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

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Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

Our exposure to market risk discussed below includes forward-looking statements and represents an estimate of possible changes in future earnings that could occur assuming hypothetical future movements in interest rates or commodity prices. Our views on market risk are not necessarily indicative of actual results that may occur and do not represent the maximum possible gains and losses that may occur since actual gains and losses will differ from those estimated based on actual fluctuations in interest rates or commodity prices and the timing of transactions.

We are exposed to market risk due to commodity price and interest-rate volatility. Market risk is the risk of loss arising from adverse changes in market rates and prices. We may use financial instruments, including forward sales, swaps, options and futures, to manage the risks of certain identifiable or anticipated transactions and achieve more predictable cash flows. Our risk-management function follows policies and procedures established by our Risk Oversight and Strategy Committee to monitor our natural gas, condensate and NGL marketing activities and interest rates to ensure our hedging activities mitigate market risks and comply with approved thresholds or limits. We do not use financial instruments for trading purposes.

We utilize a sensitivity analysis model to assess the risk associated with our derivative portfolio. The sensitivity analysis measures the potential change in fair value of our derivative instruments based upon a hypothetical 10% movement in the underlying commodity prices or interest rates. In addition to these variables, the fair value of our derivative portfolio is influenced by fluctuations in the notional amounts of the instruments and the discount rates used to determine the present values. Because we enter into these derivative instruments for the purpose of mitigating the risks that accompany certain of our business activities, as described below, the change in the market value of our derivative portfolio would typically be offset largely by a corresponding gain or loss on the hedged item.

COMMODITY PRICE RISK

As part of our hedging strategy, we use commodity derivative financial instruments and physical-forward contracts described in Note C of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this Quarterly Report to reduce the impact of near-term price fluctuations of natural gas, NGLs and condensate.

Although our businesses are primarily fee-based, in our Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment, we are exposed to commodity price risk as a result of retaining a portion of the commodity sales proceeds associated with our fee with POP contracts. Under certain fee with POP contracts, our contractual fees and POP percentage may increase or decrease if production volumes, delivery pressures or commodity prices change relative to specified thresholds. In certain commodity price environments, our contractual fees on these fee with POP contracts may increase or decrease, which would impact the average fee rate in our Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment. We are exposed to basis risk between the various production and market locations where we buy and sell commodities.

The following table presents the effect a hypothetical 10% change in the underlying commodity prices would have on the estimated fair value of our commodity derivative instruments as of the dates indicated:

Commodity ContractsJune 30, 2022December 31, 2021
(Millions of dollars)
Crude oil and NGLs$57.7$40.6
Natural gas28.811.5
Total change in estimated fair value of commodity contracts$86.5$52.1

Our sensitivity analysis represents an estimate of the reasonably possible gains and losses that would be recognized on our commodity derivative contracts assuming hypothetical movements in future market prices and is not necessarily indicative of actual results that may occur. Actual gains and losses may differ from estimates due to actual fluctuations in market prices, as well as changes in our commodity derivative portfolio during the year.

The following tables set forth hedging information for our Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment’s forecasted equity volumes for the periods indicated:

Six Months Ending December 31, 2022
Volumes HedgedAverage PricePercentage Hedged
NGLs - excluding ethane (MBbl/d) - Conway/Mont Belvieu11.6$0.95/ gallon67%
Condensate (MBbl/d) - WTI-NYMEX1.5$62.50/ Bbl71%
Natural gas (BBtu/d) - NYMEX and basis112.9$3.26/ MMBtu77%
Year Ending December 31, 2023
Volumes HedgedAverage PricePercentage Hedged
NGLs - excluding ethane (MBbl/d) - Conway/Mont Belvieu12.0$1.20/ gallon68%
Condensate (MBbl/d) - WTI-NYMEX1.7$85.48/ Bbl71%
Natural gas (BBtu/d) - NYMEX and basis110.6$3.73/ MMBtu73%

Our Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment’s commodity price sensitivity is estimated as a hypothetical change in the price of NGLs, crude oil and natural gas at June 30, 2022. Condensate sales are typically based on the price of crude oil. Assuming normal operating conditions, we estimate the following for our forecasted equity volumes:

  • a $0.01 per-gallon change in the composite price of NGLs, excluding ethane, would change adjusted EBITDA for the six months ending December 31, 2022, and for the year ending December 31, 2023, by approximately $1.3 million and $2.7 million, respectively;

  • a $1.00 per-barrel change in the price of crude oil would change adjusted EBITDA for the six months ending December 31, 2022, and for the year ending December 31, 2023, by approximately $0.4 million and $0.9 million, respectively; and

  • a $0.10 per-MMBtu change in the price of residue natural gas would change adjusted EBITDA for the six months ending December 31, 2022, and for the year ending December 31, 2023, by approximately $2.7 million and $5.5 million, respectively.

These estimates do not include any effects of hedging or effects on demand for our services or natural gas processing plant operations that might be caused by, or arise in conjunction with, commodity price fluctuations. For example, a change in the gross processing spread may cause a change in the amount of ethane extracted from the natural gas stream, impacting gathering and processing financial results for certain contracts.

INTEREST-RATE RISK

We are exposed to interest-rate risk through borrowings under our $2.5 Billion Credit Agreement, commercial paper program and long-term debt issuances. Future increases in commercial paper rates or bond rates could expose us to increased interest costs on future borrowings. We may manage interest-rate risk through the use of fixed-rate debt, floating-rate debt and interest-rate swaps. Interest-rate swaps are agreements to exchange interest payments at some future point based on specified notional amounts.

At June 30, 2022, and December 31, 2021, we had forward-starting interest-rate swaps with notional amounts totaling $1.1 billion to hedge the variability of interest payments on a portion of our forecasted debt issuances. All of our interest-rate swaps are designated as cash flow hedges.

The following table presents the effect of a 10% hypothetical change in interest rates on the estimated fair value of our interest-rate derivative instruments as of the dates indicated:

June 30, 2022December 31, 2021
(Millions of dollars)
Forward-starting interest-rate swaps$34.8$19.6

Our sensitivity analysis represents an estimate of the reasonably possible gains and losses that would be recognized on our interest-rate derivative contracts assuming hypothetical movements in future interest rates and is not necessarily indicative of actual results that may occur. Actual gains and losses may differ from estimates due to actual fluctuations in interest rates, as well as changes in our interest-rate derivative portfolio during the year.

See Note C of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this Quarterly Report for more information on our hedging activities.

COUNTERPARTY CREDIT RISK

We assess the creditworthiness of our counterparties on an ongoing basis and require security, including prepayments and other forms of collateral, when appropriate. Certain of our counterparties may be impacted by a relatively low commodity price environment and could experience financial problems, which could result in nonpayment and/or nonperformance, which could impact adversely our results of operations.

In our Natural Gas Gathering and Processing and Natural Gas Pipelines segments, the creditworthiness of our counterparties, which are primarily investment grade, is consistent with that discussed in Part II, Item 7A, Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk, in our Annual Report. In our Natural Gas Liquids segment, for the six months ended June 30, 2022, and twelve months ended December 31, 2021, approximately 85% and 70%, respectively, of commodity sales were made to customers rated investment-grade by S&P, approved through comparable internal counterparty analysis, or were secured by letters of credit or other collateral.

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