Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
COMMODITY PRICE RISK
As part of our hedging strategy, we use commodity derivative financial instruments and physical-forward contracts described in Note E of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this Quarterly Report to reduce the impact of near-term price fluctuations of natural gas, NGLs, Refined Products, condensate and crude oil.
Although our businesses are primarily fee-based, in our Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment, we are exposed to commodity price risk as a result of retaining a portion of the commodity sales proceeds associated with our fee with POP contracts. Under certain fee with POP contracts, our contractual fees and POP percentage may increase or decrease if production volumes, delivery pressures or commodity prices change relative to specified thresholds. We are exposed to basis risk between the various production and market locations where we buy and sell commodities.
As a result of the Magellan Acquisition, in our Refined Products and Crude segment we are exposed to commodity price risk from our liquids blending, fractionation and marketing activities, as well as product retained during the operations of our pipelines and terminals.
Except for the Magellan Acquisition, there have been no material changes in market risk exposures that would affect the quantitative and qualitative disclosures presented as of December 31, 2022, in Part II, Item 7A in our Annual Report.
The following table presents the effect a hypothetical 10% change in the underlying commodity prices would have on the estimated fair value of our commodity derivative instruments as of the dates indicated:
| Commodity Contracts | September 30, 2023 | December 31, 2022 | |||||||||
| (Millions of dollars) | |||||||||||
| Refined Products, crude oil and NGLs | $ | 88 | $ | 35 | |||||||
| Natural gas | 7 | 18 | |||||||||
| Total change in estimated fair value of commodity contracts | $ | 95 | $ | 53 |
Our sensitivity analysis represents an estimate of the reasonably possible gains and losses that would be recognized on our commodity derivative contracts assuming hypothetical movements in future market prices and is not necessarily indicative of actual results that may occur. Actual gains and losses may differ from estimates due to actual fluctuations in market prices, as well as changes in our commodity derivative portfolio during the year.
The following tables set forth hedging information for our Natural Gas Gathering and Processing segment’s forecasted equity volumes for the periods indicated:
| Three Months Ending December 31, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Volumes Hedged | Average Price | Percentage Hedged | ||||||||||||||||||
| NGLs - excluding ethane (MBbl/d) - Conway/Mont Belvieu | 9.3 | $ | 1.26 | / gallon | 68% | |||||||||||||||
| Condensate (MBbl/d) - WTI-NYMEX | 1.6 | $ | 84.90 | / Bbl | 69% | |||||||||||||||
| Natural gas (BBtu/d) - NYMEX and basis | 82.4 | $ | 3.54 | / MMBtu | 73% |
| Year Ending December 31, 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Volumes Hedged | Average Price | Percentage Hedged | ||||||||||||||||||
| NGLs - excluding ethane (MBbl/d) - Conway/Mont Belvieu | 4.4 | $ | 0.80 | / gallon | 34% | |||||||||||||||
| Condensate (MBbl/d) - WTI-NYMEX | 0.9 | $ | 75.39 | / Bbl | 38% | |||||||||||||||
| Natural gas (BBtu/d) - NYMEX and basis | 50.4 | $ | 4.52 | / MMBtu | 41% | |||||||||||||||
INTEREST-RATE RISK
We may manage interest-rate risk through the use of fixed-rate debt, floating-rate debt, Treasury locks and interest-rate swaps. Treasury locks are agreements to pay the difference between the benchmark Treasury rate and the rate that is designated in the terms of the agreement. In the third quarter 2023, we settled all of our $1.1 billion Treasury locks related to our underwritten public offering of $5.25 billion senior unsecured notes associated with the Magellan Acquisition. At September 30, 2023, we had no outstanding Treasury lock agreements.
Interest-rate swaps are agreements to exchange interest payments at some future point based on specified notional amounts. In the third quarter 2023, we settled all of our $0.4 billion forward-starting interest-rate swaps related to our underwritten public offerings of $5.25 billion senior unsecured notes associated with the Magellan Acquisition. At September 30, 2023, we had no outstanding forward-starting interest-rate swaps.
See Note E of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements in this Quarterly Report for more information on our hedging activities.
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