Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
9K characters. Original on sec.gov · Markdown
Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Market Risk Factors
Changes in interest rates and interest rate risk: Funds held for clients are primarily comprised of short-term funds and available-for-sale securities. Corporate investments are primarily comprised of available-for-sale securities. As a result of our investing activities, we are exposed to changes in interest rates that may materially affect our results of operations and financial position. Changes in interest rates will impact the earnings potential of future investments and will cause fluctuations in the fair value of our longer-term available-for-sale securities. We follow an investment strategy of protecting principal and optimizing liquidity. A substantial portion of our portfolios is invested in high credit quality securities with AAA and AA ratings and A-1/P-1 ratings on short-term securities. We invest predominately in municipal bonds including general obligation bonds, pre-refunded bonds that are secured by a U.S. government escrow, and essential services revenue bonds. We limit the amounts that can be invested in any single issuer and invest in short- to intermediate-term instruments whose fair value is less sensitive to interest rate changes. We manage the available-for-sale securities to a benchmark duration of two and one-half to three years.
During fiscal 2013, our primary short-term investment vehicles were VRDNs and bank demand deposit accounts. We have no exposure to high-risk or illiquid investments such as auction rate securities, sub-prime mortgage securities, asset-backed securities or asset-backed commercial paper, collateralized debt obligations, enhanced cash or cash plus mutual funds, or structured investment vehicles (SIVs). We have insignificant exposure to European investments. We have not and do not utilize derivative financial instruments to manage our interest rate risk.
During fiscal 2013, the average interest rate earned on our combined funds held for clients and corporate investment portfolios was 1.0%, compared with 1.1% for fiscal 2012 and 1.3% for fiscal 2011. When interest rates are falling, the full impact of lower interest rates will not immediately be reflected in net income due to the interaction of short- and long-term interest rate changes. During a falling interest rate environment, the decreases in interest rates decrease earnings from our short-term investments, and over time decrease earnings from our longer-term available-for-sale securities. Earnings from the available-for-sale-securities, which as of May 31, 2013 had an average duration of 3.1 years, would not reflect decreases in interest rates until the investments are sold or mature and the proceeds are reinvested at lower rates. In the next twelve months, slightly less than 15% of our available-
for-sale portfolio will mature, and it is currently anticipated that these proceeds will be reinvested at a lower average interest rate of approximately 1.1%.
The amortized cost and fair value of available-for-sale securities that had stated maturities as of May 31, 2013 are shown below by contractual maturity. Expected maturities can differ from contractual maturities because borrowers may have the right to prepay obligations without prepayment penalties.
| May 31, 2013 | ||||||||
| In millions | Amortized cost | Fair value | ||||||
| Maturity date: | ||||||||
| Due in one year or less | $ | 274.3 | $ | 276.2 | ||||
| Due after one year through three years | 701.2 | 718.6 | ||||||
| Due after three years through five years | 693.4 | 709.7 | ||||||
| Due after five years | 1,987.8 | 1,986.9 | ||||||
| Total | $ | 3,656.7 | $ | 3,691.4 |
VRDNs are primarily categorized as due after five years in the table above as the contractual maturities on these securities are typically 20 to 30 years. Although these securities are issued as long-term securities, they are priced and traded as short-term instruments because of the liquidity provided through the tender feature.
The Federal Funds rate remained at a range of zero to 0.25% throughout fiscal years 2013, 2012, and 2011.
Calculating the future effects of changing interest rates involves many factors. These factors include, but are not limited to:
| • | daily interest rate changes; |
| • | seasonal variations in investment balances; |
| • | actual duration of short-term and available-for-sale securities; |
| • | the proportion of taxable and tax-exempt investments; |
| • | changes in tax-exempt municipal rates versus taxable investment rates, which are not synchronized or simultaneous; and |
| • | financial market volatility and the resulting effect on benchmark and other indexing interest rates. |
Subject to these factors and under normal financial market conditions, a 25-basis-point change in taxable interest rates generally affects our tax-exempt interest rates by approximately 17 basis points. Under normal financial market conditions, the impact to earnings from a 25-basis-point change in short-term interest rates would be in the range of $4.0 million to $4.5 million, after taxes, for a twelve-month period. Such a basis point change may or may not be tied to changes in the Federal Funds rate.
Our total investment portfolio (funds held for clients and corporate investments) averaged approximately $4.5 billion for fiscal 2013. Our anticipated allocation is approximately 50% invested in short-term securities and VRDNs with an average duration of less than 30 days, and 50% invested in available-for-sale securities with an average duration of two and one-half to three and one-half years.
The combined funds held for clients and corporate available-for-sale securities reflected a net unrealized gain of $34.7 million as of May 31, 2013, compared with an unrealized gain of $59.5 million as of May 31, 2012. The decrease was the result of higher market yields experienced near the end of fiscal 2013. In determining fair value, we utilize the Interactive Data Pricing Service. During fiscal 2013, the net unrealized gain on our investment portfolios ranged from $34.7 million to $64.1 million. During fiscal 2012, the net unrealized gain on our investment portfolios ranged from $46.4 million to $72.5 million. The net unrealized gain on our investment portfolios was approximately 2.7 million as of July 15, 2013.
As of May 31, 2013 and 2012, we had $3.7 billion and $3.1 billion, respectively, invested in available-for-sale securities at fair value. The weighted-average yield-to-maturity was 1.8% and 2.2% as of May 31, 2013 and May 31, 2012, respectively. The weighted-average yield-to-maturity excludes available-for-sale securities tied to short-term interest rates such as the VRDNs held as of May 31, 2013 and 2012. Assuming a hypothetical decrease in both short-term and longer-term interest rates of 25 basis points, the resulting potential increase in fair value for our portfolio of available-for-sale securities as of May 31, 2013, would be in the range of $18.5 million to $19.0 million. Conversely, a corresponding increase in interest rates would result in a comparable decrease in fair value. This hypothetical increase or decrease in the fair value of the portfolio would be recorded as an adjustment
to the portfolio’s recorded value, with an offsetting amount recorded in stockholders’ equity. These fluctuations in fair value would have no related or immediate impact on the results of operations, unless any declines in fair value were considered to be other-than-temporary and an impairment loss recognized.
Credit risk: We are exposed to credit risk in connection with these investments through the possible inability of borrowers to meet the terms of their bonds. We regularly review our investment portfolios to determine if any investment is other-than-temporarily impaired due to changes in credit risk or other potential valuation concerns. We believe that the investments we held as of May 31, 2013 were not other-than-temporarily impaired. While $579.7 million of our available-for-sale securities had fair values that were below amortized cost, we believe that it is probable that the principal and interest will be collected in accordance with the contractual terms, and that the unrealized loss of $5.7 million was due to changes in interest rates and was not due to increased credit risk or other valuation concerns. Substantially all of the securities in an unrealized loss position as of May 31, 2013 and 2012 held an AA rating or better. We do not currently intend to sell these investments until the recovery of their amortized cost basis or maturity, and further believe that it is not more-likely-than-not that we will be required to sell these investments prior to that time. Our assessment that an investment is not other-than-temporarily impaired could change in the future due to new developments or changes in our strategies or assumptions related to any particular investment.
Previous: Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations · Next: Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data