Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT
MARKET RISK
The risk inherent in our market-risk sensitive instruments and positions is the potential loss arising from adverse changes in commodity prices, equity security prices and interest rates as discussed in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. It is our policy to use derivatives to manage risk consistent with business plans and prudent practices. We have a Risk Management
Committee comprised of executive officers who utilize a risk oversight function to ensure compliance with our corporate policies and risk management practices.
Additionally, we are exposed to counterparty credit losses in the event of non-performance or non-payment. We have a credit management process, which is used to assess, monitor and mitigate counterparty exposure. In the event of non-performance or non-payment by a major counterparty, there may be a material adverse impact on our financial condition, results of operations or net cash flows.
Commodity Contracts
The availability and price of energy-related commodities are subject to fluctuations from factors such as weather, environmental policies, changes in supply and demand, state and federal regulatory policies, market rules and other events. To reduce price risk caused by market fluctuations, we enter into supply contracts and derivative contracts, including forwards, futures, swaps and options with approved counterparties. These contracts, in conjunction with physical sales and other services, help reduce risk and optimize the value of owned electric generation capacity.
Value-at-Risk (VaR) Models
VaR represents the potential losses, under normal market conditions, for instruments or portfolios due to changes in market factors, for a specified time period and confidence level. We estimate VaR across our commodity businesses.
MTM VaR consists of MTM derivatives that are economic hedges. The MTM VaR calculation does not include market risks associated with activities that are subject to accrual accounting, primarily our generating facilities and some load serving activities.
The VaR models used are variance/covariance models adjusted for the change of positions with 95% and 99.5% confidence levels and a one-day holding period for the MTM activities. The models assume no new positions throughout the holding periods; however, we actively manage our portfolio.
| MTM VaR | ||||||||||
| Millions | ||||||||||
| Years Ended December 31, | 2017 | 2016 | ||||||||
| 95% Confidence Level, Loss could exceed VaR one day in 20 days | ||||||||||
| Period End | $ | 39 | $ | 26 | ||||||
| Average for the Period | $ | 10 | $ | 16 | ||||||
| High | $ | 39 | $ | 32 | ||||||
| Low | $ | 5 | $ | 10 | ||||||
| 99.5% Confidence Level, Loss could exceed VaR one day in 200 days | ||||||||||
| Period End | $ | 60 | $ | 40 | ||||||
| Average for the Period | $ | 15 | $ | 25 | ||||||
| High | $ | 60 | $ | 51 | ||||||
| Low | $ | 8 | $ | 16 | ||||||
See Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data—Note 16. Financial Risk Management Activities for a discussion of credit risk.
Interest Rates
We are subject to the risk of fluctuating interest rates in the normal course of business. We manage interest rate risk by targeting a balanced debt maturity profile which limits refinancing in any given period or interest rate environment. In addition, we use a mix of fixed and floating rate debt, interest rate swaps and interest rate lock agreements.
As of December 31, 2017, a hypothetical 10% increase in market interest rates would result in
| • | $1 million of additional annual interest costs related to both the current and long-term portion of long-term debt, and |
| • | a $370 million decrease in the fair value of debt, including a $16 million decrease at PSEG, a $309 million decrease at PSE&G and a $45 million decrease at Power. |
Debt and Equity Securities
We have $6.3 billion of assets in a trust for our pension and OPEB plans. Although fluctuations in market prices of securities within this portfolio do not directly affect our earnings in the current period, changes in the value of these investments could affect
| • | our future contributions to these plans, |
| • | our financial position if our accumulated benefit obligation under our pension plans exceeds the fair value of the pension trust funds, and |
| • | future earnings, as we could be required to adjust pension expense and the assumed rate of return. |
The NDT Fund is comprised primarily of fixed income and equity securities. As of December 31, 2017, the portfolio included $1.1 billion of equity securities and $986 million in fixed income securities. The fair market value of the assets in the NDT Fund will fluctuate primarily depending upon the performance of equity markets. As of December 31, 2017, a hypothetical 10% change in the equity market would impact the value of the equity securities in the NDT Fund by approximately $106 million.
We use duration to measure the interest rate sensitivity of the fixed income portfolio. Duration is a summary statistic of the effective average maturity of the fixed income portfolio. The benchmark for the fixed income component of the NDT Fund currently has a duration of 5.98 years and a yield of 2.72%. The portfolio’s value will appreciate or depreciate by the duration with a 1% change in interest rates. As of December 31, 2017, a hypothetical 1% increase in interest rates would result in a decline in the market value for the fixed income portfolio of approximately $59 million.
Credit Risk
See Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data—Note 16. Financial Risk Management Activities for a discussion of credit risk and a discussion about Power’s and PSE&G’s credit risk.
Energy Holdings has credit risk related to its investments in leases, which totaled $85 million, net of deferred taxes of $480 million, as of December 31, 2017. These leveraged leases are concentrated in the U.S. energy industry. See Item 8. Financial Statements and Supplementary Data—Note 8. Financing Receivables for counterparties’ credit ratings and other information. The credit exposure to the lessees is partially mitigated through various credit enhancement mechanisms within the lease transactions. These credit enhancement features vary from lease to lease. Some of the leasing transactions include covenants that restrict the flow of dividends from the lessee to its parent, over-collateralization of the lessee with non-leased assets, and historical and forward cash flow coverage tests that prohibit discretionary capital expenditures and dividend payments to the parent/lessee if stated minimum coverages are not met. These covenants are designed to maintain cash reserves in the transaction entity for the benefit of the non-recourse lenders and the lessor/equity participants in the event of a temporary market downturn or degradation in operating performance of the leased assets.
In any lease transaction, in the event of a default, Energy Holdings would exercise its rights and attempt to seek recovery of its investment. The results of such efforts may not be known for a period of time. A bankruptcy of a lessee and failure to recover adequate value could lead to a foreclosure of the lease. Under a worst-case scenario, if a foreclosure were to occur, Energy Holdings would record a pre-tax write-off up to its outstanding gross investment in these facilities. Also, in the event of a potential foreclosure, the net tax benefits generated by Energy Holdings’ portfolio of investments could be materially reduced in the period in which gains associated with the potential forgiveness of debt at these projects occurs. The amount and timing of any potential reduction in net tax benefits is dependent upon a number of factors including, but not limited to, the time of a potential foreclosure, the amount of lease debt outstanding, any cash trapped at the projects and negotiations during such potential foreclosure process. The potential loss of earnings, impairment and/or tax payments could have a material impact to our financial position, results of operations and net cash flows.
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