Item 1A. RISK FACTORS

Some of the statements in this report and, in particular, statements found in Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations, that are not historical in nature are forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include statements about our expectations regarding our future liquidity, earnings, expenditures, and financial condition. These statements are often identified by the words "will," "should," "anticipate," "believe," "expect," "intend," "estimate," "hope," or similar expressions. These statements reflect management’s current views with respect to future events and are subject to risks and uncertainties. There are important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements, many of which are beyond our control. These factors, risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the factors described below.

Our actual results, performance, or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements, and accordingly, we can give no assurances that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what impact they will have on our results of operations or financial condition. In view of these uncertainties, investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We expressly disclaim any obligation to publicly revise or otherwise update any forward-looking statements that have been made to reflect the occurrence of events after the date hereof.

In addition to the risks and uncertainties we discuss elsewhere in this Form 10-K (particularly in "Part II, Item 7. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations") or in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the following are important factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those we project in any forward-looking statement.

Industry Cyclicality - Changes in the prices of our products could materially affect our financial condition, results of operations, and liquidity. Macroeconomic conditions and fluctuations in industry capacity can create changes in prices, sales volumes, and margins for most of our products, particularly commodity grades of packaging and paper products. Prices for all of our products are driven by many factors, including general economic conditions, demand for our products, and competitive conditions in our industry, and we have little influence over the timing and extent of price changes, which may be unpredictable and volatile. In addition, our selling prices are influenced by index levels published by trade publications. Changes in how these index levels are determined or maintained may affect our sales prices. If supply exceeds demand, industry operating conditions deteriorate or other factors result in lower prices for our products, our earnings and operating cash flows would be harmed.

General Economic Conditions - Adverse business and economic conditions or changes in tax laws may have a material adverse effect on our business, results of operations, liquidity, and financial position. General global and U.S. economic conditions adversely affect the demand and production of consumer goods, employment levels, the availability and cost of credit, and ultimately, the profitability of our business. High unemployment rates, lower family income, unfavorable currency exchange rates, lower corporate earnings, lower business investment, and lower consumer spending typically result in decreased demand for our products and products of our customers which utilize our products. Changes in tax laws or tax rates may have a material impact on our future cash taxes, effective tax rate or deferred tax assets and liabilities. These conditions are beyond our control and may have a significant impact on our business, results of operations, liquidity, and financial position.

Competition - The intensity of competition in the industries in which we operate could result in downward pressure on pricing and volume, which could lower earnings and operating cash flows. Our industries are highly competitive, with no single containerboard, corrugated packaging, or white paper producer having a dominant position. Containerboard and commodity white paper products cannot generally be differentiated by producer, which tends to intensify price competition. The corrugated packaging industry is also sensitive to changes in economic conditions, as well as other factors including innovation, design, quality, and service. To the extent that one or more competitors are more successful than we are with respect to any key competitive factor, our business could be adversely affected. Our packaging products also compete, to some extent, with various other packaging materials, including products made of paper, plastics, wood, and various types of metal. If we are unable to successfully compete, we may lose market share or may be required to charge lower sales prices for our products, both of which would reduce our earnings and operating cash flows.

Our white paper products compete with electronic data transmission and document storage alternatives. Increasing shifts to electronic alternatives have had and will continue to have an adverse effect on usage of these products. As a result of such competition, we are experiencing decreasing demand for most of our existing white paper products. As the use of these alternatives grows, demand for paper products is likely to further decline. Declines in demand for our paper products may adversely affect our earnings and operating cash flows.

Some of our competitors are larger than we are and may have greater financial and other resources, greater manufacturing economies of scale, greater energy self-sufficiency, or lower operating costs, compared with our company. We may be unable to compete effectively with these companies particularly during economic downturns. Some of the factors that may adversely affect our ability to compete in the markets in which we participate include the entry of new competitors (including overseas producers, who have increased imports of white paper to the United States in recent years and have been found to have violated international trade rules) into the markets we serve, our competitors' pricing strategies, our inability to anticipate and respond to changing customer preferences, and our inability to maintain the cost-efficiency of our facilities.

Inflation and Other General Cost Increases - We may not be able to offset higher costs. We are subject to both contractual, inflationary, and other general cost increases, including with regard to our labor costs and purchases of raw materials. If we are unable to offset these cost increases by price increases, growth, and/or cost reductions in our operations, these inflationary and other general cost increases could have a material adverse effect on our operating cash flows, profitability, and liquidity.

In 2016, our total company costs including cost of sales (COS) and selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) was $5.0 billion, and excluding non-cash costs (depreciation, depletion and amortization, pension and postretirement expense, and share-based compensation expense) was $4.6 billion. A 1% increase in COS and SG&A costs would increase costs by $50 million and cash costs by $46 million.

Cost of Fiber - An increase in the cost of fiber could increase our manufacturing costs and lower our earnings. The market price of wood fiber varies based upon availability, source, and the costs of fuels used in the harvesting and transportation of wood fiber. The cost and availability of wood fiber can also be impacted by weather, general logging conditions, geography, and regulatory activity.

The availability and cost of recycled fiber depends heavily on recycling rates and the domestic and global demand for recycled products. We purchase recycled fiber for use at four of our five containerboard mills as well as the containerboard machine at our Wallula, Washington mill. In 2016, we purchased approximately 630,000 tons of recycled fiber, net of the recycled fiber generated by our corrugated box plants. The amount of recycled fiber purchased each year varies based upon production and the prices of both recycled fiber and wood fiber.

Periods of supply and demand imbalance have created significant price volatility. Periods of higher recycled fiber costs and unusual price volatility have occurred in the past and may occur again in the future, which could result in higher costs and lower earnings. A $10 per ton price increase in recycled fiber for our containerboard mills, would result in approximately $6 million of additional expense.

Cost of Purchased Fuels and Chemicals - An increase in the cost of purchased fuels and chemicals could lead to higher manufacturing costs, resulting in reduced earnings. We have the ability to use various types of purchased fuels in our manufacturing operations, including natural gas, bark, and other purchased fuels. Fuel prices, in particular prices for oil and natural gas, have fluctuated dramatically in the past. New and more stringent environmental regulations may discourage, reduce the availability of, or make more expensive, the use of certain fuels, particularly coal and fossil fuels. In addition, costs for key chemicals used in our manufacturing operations also fluctuate. These fluctuations impact our manufacturing costs and result in earnings volatility. If fuel and chemical prices rise, our production costs and transportation costs will increase and cause higher manufacturing costs and reduced earnings. A $0.10 per million MMBTU in natural gas prices would result in approximately $3 million of additional expense, based on 2016 usage.

Material Disruption of Manufacturing - A material disruption at one of our manufacturing facilities could prevent us from meeting customer demand, reduce our sales, and/or negatively affect our results of operations and financial condition. Our business depends on continuous operation of our facilities, particularly at our mills. Any of our manufacturing facilities, or any of our machines within such facilities, could cease operations unexpectedly for a significant period of time due to a number of events, including:

These events could harm our ability to produce our products and serve our customers and may lead to higher costs and reduced earnings.

Environmental Matters - PCA may incur significant environmental liabilities with respect to both past and future operations. We are subject to, and must comply with, a variety of federal, state and local environmental laws, particularly those relating to air and water quality, waste disposal and the cleanup of contaminated soil and groundwater. Because environmental regulations are constantly evolving, we have incurred, and will continue to incur, costs to maintain compliance with those laws. See Item 7. "Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations - Environmental Matters" for estimates of expenditures we expect to make for environmental compliance in the next few years. New and more stringent environmental regulations may be adopted and may require us to incur significant additional capital expenditures to modify or replace certain of our boilers. In addition, environmental regulations may increase the cost of our raw materials and purchased energy. Although we have established reserves to provide for known environmental liabilities, these reserves may change over time due to the enactment of new environmental laws or regulations or changes in existing laws or regulations, which might require additional significant environmental expenditures.

Mergers and Acquisitions - Our acquired businesses may underperform relative to our expectations, and we may not be able to successfully integrate these businesses into our own. We have completed several mergers and acquisitions and investments in recent years, including our acquisitions of TimBar and Columbus Container during 2016. Our success will depend in part on our ability to successfully integrate, and receive the intended benefits from these acquisitions. There may be difficulties, costs and delays involved in the integration of these businesses into ours. Integration requires modification of operational and financial systems, and may result in significant additional expenses. If the acquired businesses underperform relative to our expectations, or if we fail to successfully integrate these businesses, our business, financial condition and results of operations may be materially and adversely affected.

Customer Concentration - Office Depot represents a significant portion of PCA’s paper business. We have a supply agreement with Office Depot, our largest customer in the Paper segment. The agreement requires Office Depot to buy, and us to supply, at least 50% of Office Depot's requirements for office papers through December 2017.

In 2016, sales to Office Depot represented 42% of our Paper segment sales and 8% of our consolidated sales. If these sales are reduced, including if we are unable to renew the agreement at committed volumes, we would need to find new customers. We may not be able to fully replace any lost sales, and any new sales may be at lower prices or higher costs. Any significant deterioration in the financial condition of Office Depot affecting its ability to pay or any other change that makes Office Depot less willing to purchase our products will harm our business and results of operations.

Labor Relations- If we experience strikes or other work stoppages, our business will be harmed. Our workforce is highly unionized and operates under various collective bargaining agreements. We must negotiate to renew or extend any union contracts that have recently expired or are expiring in the near future. While we believe that we have generally had satisfactory labor relations, we may not be able to successfully negotiate new agreements without work stoppages or labor difficulties in the future or renegotiate them on favorable terms. If we are unable to successfully renegotiate the terms of any of these agreements, or if we experience any extended interruption of operations at any of our facilities as a result of strikes or other work stoppages, our business, results of operations and financial condition may be harmed.

Cyber Security - Risks related to security breaches of company, customer, employee, and vendor information, as well as the technology that manages our operations and other business processes, could adversely affect our business. We rely on various information technology systems to capture, process, store, and report data and interact with customers, vendors, and employees. Despite careful security and controls design, implementation, updating, and internal and independent third-party assessments, our information technology systems, and those of our third party providers, could become subject to cyber attacks or security breaches. Network, system, and data breaches could result in misappropriation of sensitive data or operational disruptions including interruption to systems availability and denial of access to and misuse of applications required by our customers to conduct business with us. Misuse of internal applications; theft of intellectual property, trade secrets, or other corporate assets; and inappropriate disclosure of confidential information could stem from such incidents. Delayed sales, slowed production, or other issues resulting from these disruptions could result in lost sales, business delays, and negative publicity and could have a material adverse effect on our operations, financial condition, or operating cash flows.

Debt obligations - Our debt service obligations may reduce our operating flexibility. At December 31, 2016, we had $2.6 billion of long-term debt outstanding and a $324.9 million undrawn revolving credit facility, after deducting letters of credit. We and our subsidiaries may incur additional indebtedness in the future. Our indebtedness includes $1.0 billion with floating interest rates. An increase in interest rates will increase the amount we must pay to service our indebtedness.

Our current borrowings, plus any future borrowings, may affect our ability to operate our business, including, without limitation:

Further, if we cannot service our indebtedness, we may have to take actions to secure additional cash by selling assets, seeking additional equity or reducing investments, which may not be achievable on acceptable terms or at all.

Market Price of our Common Stock - The market price of our common stock may be volatile, which could cause the value of the stock to decline. Securities markets worldwide periodically experience significant price declines and volume fluctuations. This market volatility, as well as general economic, market, or political conditions, could reduce the market price of our common stock in spite of our operating performance. In addition, our operating results could be below the expectations of public market analysts and investors, and in response, the market price of our common stock could decrease significantly.