Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Market risk is the risk of fluctuations in the value of financial instruments as a result of absolute or relative changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, equity prices or commodity prices. To varying degrees, our products and services, and the investment activities supporting them, generate exposure to market risk. The market risk incurred, and our strategies for managing this risk, vary by product. For additional information regarding a description of market risk, market risk management and mitigation, see Item 7A, “Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures about Market Risk,” included in the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2022.
As a result of the adoption of ASU 2018-12 in the first quarter of 2023, the following tables have been updated to reflect the current impacts on hypothetical changes in fair value based on the new accounting standard.
Market Risk Related to Interest Rates
We assess the impact of interest rate movements on the value of our financial assets, financial liabilities and derivatives using hypothetical test scenarios that assume either upward or downward 100 basis point parallel shifts in the yield curve from prevailing interest rates, reflecting changes in either credit spreads or the risk-free rate. The following table sets forth the net estimated potential loss in fair value on these financial instruments from a hypothetical 100 basis point upward shift as of September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022.
| As of September 30, 2023 | As of December 31, 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Notional | Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | Notional | Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Financial assets with interest rate risk: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fixed maturities(1) | $ | 303,335 | $ | (28,391) | $ | 316,070 | $ | (30,524) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Commercial mortgage and other loans | 52,877 | (2,137) | 52,479 | (2,300) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Derivatives with interest rate risk: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Swaps | $ | 280,507 | (12,314) | (3,383) | $ | 268,764 | (8,565) | (3,631) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Futures | 14,334 | 10 | (357) | 19,452 | (12) | (309) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Options | 82,515 | (1,681) | (110) | 49,351 | (938) | 241 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Forwards | 36,409 | (137) | (109) | 38,899 | (581) | (185) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Synthetic GICs | 80,152 | 0 | (10) | 84,338 | 0 | (6) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indexed universal life contracts | (1,079) | 128 | (986) | 190 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indexed annuity contracts | (5,029) | (582) | (2,506) | (457) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total embedded derivatives(2) | (6,108) | (454) | (3,492) | (267) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Financial liabilities with interest rate risk(3): | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Short-term and long-term debt | 17,550 | 2,640 | 19,441 | 3,091 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Policyholders’ account balances—investment contracts | 64,972 | 2,010 | 66,602 | 1,944 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Insurance liabilities with interest rate risk: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Benefit reserves (traditional and limited-payment contracts)(4) | 174,276 | 27,294 | 182,304 | 28,942 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Market risk benefits(5) | 2,460 | 1,745 | 5,064 | 2,440 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net estimated potential loss | $ | (1,262) | $ | (564) |
(1)Includes assets classified as “Fixed maturities, available-for-sale, at fair value,” “Assets supporting experience-rated contractholder liabilities, at fair value” and “Fixed maturities, trading, at fair value.” Approximately $295 billion and $308 billion as of September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively, of fixed maturities are classified as available-for-sale. Changes in fair value of fixed maturities classified as available-for-sale are included in AOCI.
(2)Excludes any offsetting impact of derivative instruments purchased to hedge changes in the embedded derivatives. Amounts reported net of third-party reinsurance.
(3)Excludes approximately $150 billion and $144 billion as of September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022, respectively, of certain insurance reserve and deposit liabilities which are not considered financial liabilities. We believe that the interest rate sensitivities of these insurance liabilities would serve as an offset to the net interest rate risk of the financial assets and liabilities, including investment contracts.
(4)Changes in fair value of benefit reserves (traditional and limited-payment contracts) are included in AOCI.
(5)Amounts reported net of third-party reinsurance.
Under U.S. GAAP, the fair value of the MRBs and embedded derivatives for certain features associated with indexed universal life and indexed annuity contracts, reflected in the table above, includes the impact of the market’s perception of our NPR. For additional information regarding the key estimates and assumptions used in our determination of fair value, including NPR, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Accounting Policies & Pronouncements—Application of Critical Accounting Estimates—Market Risk Benefits (“MRB”)” above. For information regarding the impacts of changes in the interest rate environment, see “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Executive Summary—Impact of Changes in the Interest Rate Environment” above.
Market Risk Related to Equity Prices
We estimate our equity risk from a hypothetical 10% decline in equity benchmark market levels. The following table sets forth the net estimated potential loss in fair value from such a decline as of September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022.
| As of September 30, 2023 | As of December 31, 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Notional | Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | Notional | Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Equity securities(1) | $ | 9,094 | $ | (909) | $ | 9,049 | $ | (905) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Equity-based derivatives(2) | $ | 60,649 | (345) | (640) | $ | 51,501 | (961) | (73) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indexed universal life contracts | (1,079) | 29 | (986) | 24 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Indexed annuity contracts | (5,029) | 1,183 | (2,506) | 841 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total embedded derivatives(2)(3) | (6,108) | 1,212 | (3,492) | 865 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Market risk benefits(4) | 2,460 | (893) | 5,064 | (1,026) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Net estimated potential loss | $ | (1,230) | $ | (1,139) |
(1)Includes equity securities classified as “Assets supporting experience-rated contractholder liabilities” and “Equity securities, at fair value.”
(2)The notional and fair value of equity-based derivatives and the fair value of embedded derivatives are also reflected in amounts under “Market Risk Related to Interest Rates” above, and are not cumulative.
(3)Excludes any offsetting impact of derivative instruments purchased to hedge changes in the embedded derivatives. Amounts reported net of third-party reinsurance.
(4)Amounts reported net of third-party reinsurance.
Market Risk Related to Foreign Currency Exchange Rates
We manage our foreign currency exchange rate risks within specified limits, and estimate our exposure, excluding equity in our Japanese insurance operations, to a hypothetical 10% change in foreign currency exchange rates. The following table sets forth the net estimated potential loss in fair value from such a change as of September 30, 2023 and December 31, 2022.
| As of September 30, 2023 | As of December 31, 2022 | ||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | Fair Value | Hypothetical Change in Fair Value | ||||||||||||||||||||
| (in millions) | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Unhedged portion of equity investment in international subsidiaries and foreign currency denominated investments in domestic general account portfolio | $ | 4,085 | $ | 409 | $ | 3,797 | $ | 380 |
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