Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Financial Instrument Market Risk
We and certain of our subsidiaries are exposed to market risks produced by changes in the prices of crude oil, refined petroleum products, NGL, natural gas, renewable feedstocks and renewable fuels, and electric power, as well as fluctuations in interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates. We and certain of our subsidiaries may hold and use derivative contracts to manage these risks.
Commodity Price Risk
Generally, our policy is to remain exposed to the market prices of commodities. Consistent with this policy, we use derivative contracts to convert our exposure from fixed-price sales or purchase contracts, often specified in contracts with refined product customers, back to floating market prices. We also use futures, forwards, swaps and options in various markets to accomplish the following objectives:
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Balance physical systems or meet our refinery requirements and market demand. In addition to cash settlement prior to contract expiration, certain exchange-traded futures may be settled by physical delivery of the underlying commodity.
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Enable us to use the market knowledge gained from our physical commodity market activities to capture market opportunities, such as moving physical commodities to more profitable locations, storing commodities to capture seasonal or time premiums, and blending commodities to capture quality upgrades. Derivatives may be utilized to optimize these activities.
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Manage the risk to our cash flows from price exposures on specific crude oil, refined petroleum product, NGL, renewable feedstocks and natural gas transactions.
These objectives optimize the value of our supply chain and may reduce our exposure to fluctuations in market prices.
Our use of derivative instruments is governed by an “Authority Limitations” document approved by our Board of Directors. This document prohibits the use of highly leveraged derivatives or derivative instruments without sufficient market liquidity for comparable valuations, and establishes Value at Risk (VaR) limits. Compliance with these limits is monitored daily by our global risk group.
We use a VaR model to estimate the loss in fair value that could potentially result on a single day from the effect of adverse changes in market conditions on the derivative commodity instruments held or issued. Using Monte Carlo simulation, a 95% confidence level and a one-day holding period, the VaR for derivative commodity instruments issued or held at December 31, 2024 and 2023, was immaterial to our cash flows and results of operations.
Interest Rate Risk
Our use of fixed- or variable-rate debt directly exposes us to interest rate risk. Fixed-rate debt, such as our senior notes, exposes us to changes in the fair value of our debt due to changes in market interest rates. Fixed-rate debt also exposes us to the risk that we may need to refinance maturing debt with new debt at higher rates, or that we may be obligated to pay rates higher than the current market. Variable-rate debt, such as our floating-rate notes or borrowings under our revolving credit facility, exposes us to short-term changes in market rates that impact our interest expense. The following tables provide information about our debt instruments that are sensitive to changes in U.S. interest rates. These tables present principal cash flows and related weighted-average interest rates by expected maturity dates. Weighted-average variable rates are based on effective rates at each reporting date. The carrying amount of our floating-rate debt approximates its fair value. The fair value of the fixed-rate financial instruments is estimated based on observable market prices.
| Millions of Dollars, Except as Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Expected Maturity Date | Fixed Rate Maturity | Average Interest Rate | Floating Rate Maturity | Average Interest Rate | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year-End 2024 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | $ | 584 | 5.19 | % | $ | 1,210 | 5.05 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 992 | 2.42 | 550 | 5.45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 1,250 | 5.22 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 1,300 | 3.84 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2029 | 1,200 | 4.14 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Remaining years | 12,776 | 4.94 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 18,102 | $ | 1,760 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair value | $ | 16,913 | $ | 1,760 |
| Millions of Dollars, Except as Indicated | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Expected Maturity Date | Fixed Rate Maturity | Average Interest Rate | Floating Rate Maturity | Average Interest Rate | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Year-End 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | $ | 1,100 | 1.32 | % | $ | 350 | 6.38 | % | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2025 | 1,975 | 4.43 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 992 | 2.42 | 1,250 | 6.46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 1,250 | 5.22 | 25 | 6.51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 1,300 | 3.84 | — | — | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Remaining years | 10,676 | 4.74 | 290 | 6.46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Total | $ | 17,293 | $ | 1,915 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fair value | $ | 16,718 | $ | 1,915 |
Foreign Currency Risk
We are exposed to foreign currency exchange rate fluctuations related to our international operations. Generally, we do not hedge our foreign currency risk. In October 2024, we entered into a foreign currency derivative instrument and recognized a before-tax gain of $67 million. The instrument is in connection with the sale of our 49% ownership interest in Coop, which closed in January 2025. This instrument was settled in January 2025. For additional information, see Note 9—Investments, Loans and Long-Term Receivables.
Risk Monitoring
Our Chief Executive Officer and Chief Financial Officer monitor risks to our business resulting from commodity prices, interest rates and foreign currency exchange rates.
For additional information about our use of derivative instruments, see Note 18—Derivatives and Financial Instruments, in the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE “SAFE HARBOR” PROVISIONS OF THE PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995
This report includes forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. You can normally identify our forward-looking statements by the words “anticipate,” “estimate,” “believe,” “budget,” “continue,” “could,” “intend,” “may,” “plan,” “potential,” “predict,” “seek,” “should,” “will,” “would,” “expect,” “objective,” “projection,” “forecast,” “goal,” “guidance,” “outlook,” “effort,” “target,” “priorities” and similar expressions that convey the prospective nature of events or outcomes, but the absence of such words does not mean a statement is not forward-looking.
We based these forward-looking statements on our current expectations, estimates and projections about us, our operations, our joint ventures and entities in which we have equity interests, as well as the industries in which we and they operate, and our sustainability-related plans and goals. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date of this report, as they are not guarantees of future performance and involve assumptions that, while made in good faith, may prove to be incorrect, and involve risks and uncertainties we cannot predict. In addition, we based many of these forward-looking statements on assumptions about future events that may prove to be inaccurate. Accordingly, our actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what we have expressed or forecasted in any forward-looking statement. Our sustainability-related goals are not guarantees or promises and may change. Statements regarding our goals are not guarantees or promises that they will be met. The information included in, and any issues identified as material for purposes of, our sustainability reports shall not be considered material for SEC reporting purposes. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in our forward-looking statements include:
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Fluctuations in market conditions and demand impacting the prices of NGL, crude oil, refined petroleum products, renewable fuels, renewable feedstocks and natural gas prices and changes in refined product, marketing and petrochemical margins.
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Changes in governmental policies relating to NGL, crude oil, natural gas, refined petroleum or renewable fuels products pricing, regulation or taxation, including exports.
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Capacity constraints in, or other limitations on, the pipelines, storage and fractionation facilities to which we deliver natural gas or NGL and the availability of alternative markets and arrangements for our natural gas and NGL.
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Actions taken by OPEC and non-OPEC oil producing countries impacting crude oil production and correspondingly, commodity prices.
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Unexpected changes in costs or technical requirements for constructing, modifying or operating our facilities or transporting our products.
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Unexpected technological or commercial difficulties in manufacturing, refining or transporting our products, including chemical products.
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Changes in the cost or availability of adequate and reliable transportation for our NGL, crude oil, natural gas and refined petroleum and renewable fuels products.
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The level and success of producers’ drilling plans and the amount and quality of production volumes around our midstream assets.
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Our ability to timely obtain or maintain permits, including those necessary for capital projects.
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Our ability to comply with government regulations or make capital expenditures required to maintain compliance.
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Our ability to realize sustained savings and cost reductions from the company’s business transformation initiatives.
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Changes to government policies relating to renewable fuels, climate change and GHG emissions that adversely affect programs like the renewable fuel standards program, low carbon fuel standards and tax credits for biofuels.
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Domestic and international economic and political developments including armed hostilities, such as the war in Eastern Europe, instability in the financial services and banking sector, excess inflation, expropriation of assets and changes in fiscal policy, including interest rates.
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The impact on commercial activity and demand for our products from any widespread public health crisis, as well as the extent and duration of recovery of economies and demand for our products following any such crisis.
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Failure to complete definitive agreements and feasibility studies for, and to complete construction of, announced and future capital projects on time and within budget.
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Our ability to successfully complete, or any material delay in the completion of, any asset dispositions, acquisitions, shutdowns or conversions that we may pursue, including the receipt of any necessary regulatory approvals or permits related to such action.
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Potential disruption or interruption of our operations or those of our joint ventures due to litigation or governmental or regulatory action.
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Damage to our facilities due to accidents, weather and climate events, civil unrest, insurrections, political events, terrorism or cyberattacks.
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Our sustainability goals, including reducing our GHG emissions intensity, developing and protecting new technologies, and commercializing lower-carbon opportunities.
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Failure of new products and services to achieve market acceptance.
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International monetary conditions and exchange controls.
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Substantial investments required, or reduced demand for products, as a result of existing or future environmental rules and regulations, including GHG emissions reductions and reduced consumer demand for refined petroleum products.
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Liability resulting from pending or future litigation or other legal proceedings.
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Liability for remedial actions, including removal and reclamation obligations under environmental regulations.
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Changes in tax, environmental and other laws and regulations (including alternative energy mandates) applicable to our business.
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Economic, political and regulatory conditions domestically and internationally, including imposition of tariffs or other tax incentives or disincentives.
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Political and societal concerns about climate change that could result in changes to our business or operations or increase expenditures, including litigation-related expenses.
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Changes in estimates or projections used to assess fair value of intangible assets, goodwill, and properties, plants and equipment and/or strategic decisions or other developments with respect to our asset portfolio that cause impairment charges.
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Limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to changes to our credit profile or illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets.
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The creditworthiness of our customers and the counterparties to our transactions, including the impact of bankruptcies.
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Cybersecurity incidents or other disruptions that compromise our information and expose us to liability.
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The operation, financing and distribution decisions of our joint ventures that we do not control.
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The potential impact of activist shareholder actions or tactics.
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The factors generally described in “Item 1A. Risk Factors” in this report.
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