Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk

Market risk relating to our operations results primarily from changes in commodity prices, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, as well as credit risk concentrations. To address certain of these risks, we enter into various derivative transactions as described below. If a derivative instrument is accounted for as a hedge, depending on the nature of the hedge, changes in the fair value of the instrument either will be offset against the change in fair value of the hedged assets, liabilities or firm commitments through earnings, or be recognized in other comprehensive income (loss) until the hedged item is recognized in earnings. The ineffective portion of an instrument’s change in fair value is recognized immediately.

Further, we hold certain positions, primarily in grain and livestock futures that either do not meet the criteria for hedge accounting or are not designated as hedges. With the exception of normal purchases and normal sales that are expected to result in physical delivery, we record these positions at fair value, and the unrealized gains and losses are reported in earnings at each reporting date.

The sensitivity analyses presented below are the measures of potential changes in fair value resulting from hypothetical changes in market prices related to commodities. Sensitivity analyses do not consider the actions we may take to mitigate our exposure to changes, nor do they consider the effects such hypothetical adverse changes may have on overall economic activity. Actual changes in market prices may differ from hypothetical changes.

Commodities Risk

We purchase certain commodities, such as grains and livestock in the course of normal operations. As part of our commodity risk management activities, we use derivative financial instruments, primarily forwards and options, to reduce the effect of changing prices and as a mechanism to procure the underlying commodity. However, as the commodities underlying our derivative financial instruments can experience significant price fluctuations, any requirement to mark-to-market the positions that have not been designated or do not qualify as hedges could result in volatility in our results of operations. Contract terms of a hedge instrument closely mirror those of the hedged item providing a high degree of risk reduction and correlation. Contracts designated and highly effective at meeting this risk reduction and correlation criteria are recorded using hedge accounting. We generally do not hedge anticipated transactions beyond 18 months. The following table presents a sensitivity analysis resulting from a hypothetical change of 10% in market prices as of July 2, 2022, and October 2, 2021, on the fair value of open positions. The fair value of such positions is a summation of the fair values calculated for each commodity by valuing each net position at quoted forward and option prices. The market risk exposure analysis included both derivatives designated as hedge instruments and derivatives not designated as hedge instruments.

Interest Rate Risk

At July 2, 2022, we had variable rate debt of $10 million with a weighted average interest rate of 3.0%. A hypothetical 10% increase in interest rates effective at July 2, 2022, and October 2, 2021, would not have a significant effect on variable interest expense.

Additionally, changes in interest rates impact the fair value of our fixed-rate debt. At July 2, 2022, we had fixed-rate debt of $8,318 million with a weighted average interest rate of 4.5%. Market risk for fixed-rate debt is estimated as the potential increase in fair value, resulting from a hypothetical 10% decrease in interest rates. A hypothetical 10% change in interest rates would have changed the fair value of our fixed-rate debt by approximately $192 million at July 2, 2022 and $154 million at October 2, 2021. The fair values of our debt were estimated based on quoted market prices and/or published interest rates.

We are subject to interest rate risk associated with our pension and post-retirement benefit obligations. Changes in interest rates impact the liabilities associated with these benefit plans as well as the amount of income or expense recognized for these plans. Declines in the value of the plan assets could diminish the funded status of the pension plans and potentially increase the requirements to make cash contributions to these plans. See Part II, Item 8, Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements, Note 16: Pensions and Other Postretirement Benefits in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended October 2, 2021, for additional information.

Foreign Currency Risk

We have foreign exchange exposure from fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates primarily as a result of certain receivable and payable balances. The primary currencies we have exposure to are the Australian dollar, the Brazilian real, the British pound sterling, the Canadian dollar, the Chinese renminbi, the European euro, the Malaysian ringgit, the Mexican peso, and the Thai baht. We periodically enter into foreign exchange forward and option contracts to hedge some portion of our foreign currency exposure. A hypothetical 10% change in foreign exchange rates related to the foreign exchange forward and option contracts would have had a $22 million and $13 million impact on pretax income at July 2, 2022, and October 2, 2021 respectively.

Concentration of Credit Risk

Refer to our market risk disclosures set forth in our Annual Report filed on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended October 2, 2021, for a detailed discussion of quantitative and qualitative disclosures about concentration of credit risks.

EBITDA Reconciliations

A reconciliation of net income to EBITDA is as follows (in millions, except ratio data):

(a) Excludes the amortization of debt issuance and debt discount expense of $7 million for the nine months ended July 2, 2022, $11 million for the nine months ended July 3, 2021, $19 million for the fiscal year ended October 2, 2021, and $15 million for the twelve months ended July 2, 2022 as it is included in interest expense.

EBITDA represents net income, net of interest, income tax expense, depreciation and amortization. Net debt to EBITDA represents the ratio of our debt, net of cash and short-term investments, to EBITDA. EBITDA and net debt to EBITDA are presented as supplemental financial measurements in the evaluation of our business. We believe the presentation of these financial measures helps investors to assess our operating performance from period to period, including our ability to generate earnings sufficient to service our debt, and enhances understanding of our financial performance and highlights operational trends. These measures are widely used by investors and rating agencies in the valuation, comparison, rating and investment recommendations of companies; however, the measurements of EBITDA and net debt to EBITDA may not be comparable to those of other companies, which limits their usefulness as comparative measures. EBITDA and net debt to EBITDA are not measures required by or calculated in accordance with GAAP and should not be considered as substitutes for net income or any other measure of financial performance reported in accordance with GAAP or as a measure of operating cash flow or liquidity. EBITDA is a useful tool for assessing, but is not a reliable indicator of, our ability to generate cash to service our debt obligations because certain of the items added to net income to determine EBITDA involve outlays of cash. As a result, actual cash available to service our debt obligations will be different from EBITDA. Investors should rely primarily on our GAAP results, and use non-GAAP financial measures only supplementally, in making investment decisions.