Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
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Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk
Market risk relating to our operations results primarily from changes in commodity prices, interest rates and foreign exchange rates, as well as credit risk concentrations. To address certain of these risks, we enter into various derivative transactions as described below. If a derivative instrument is accounted for as a hedge, depending on the nature of the hedge, changes in the fair value of the instrument either will be offset against the change in fair value of the hedged assets, liabilities or firm commitments through earnings, or be recognized in other comprehensive income (loss) until the hedged item is recognized in earnings.
Further, we hold certain positions, primarily in grain and livestock futures that either do not meet the criteria for hedge accounting or are not designated as hedges. With the exception of normal purchases and normal sales that are expected to result in physical delivery, we record these positions at fair value, and the unrealized gains and losses are reported in earnings at each reporting date.
The sensitivity analyses presented below are the measures of potential changes in fair value resulting from hypothetical changes in market prices related to commodities. Sensitivity analyses do not consider the actions we may take to mitigate our exposure to changes, nor do they consider the effects such hypothetical adverse changes may have on overall economic activity. Actual changes in market prices may differ from hypothetical changes.
Commodities Risk
We purchase certain commodities, such as grains and livestock, during normal operations. As part of our commodity risk management activities, we use derivative financial instruments, primarily forwards and options, to reduce the effect of changing prices and as a mechanism to procure the underlying commodity. However, as the commodities underlying our derivative financial instruments can experience significant price fluctuations, any requirement to mark-to-market the positions that have not been designated or do not qualify as hedges could result in volatility in our results of operations. Contract terms of a hedge instrument closely mirror those of the hedged item providing a high degree of risk reduction and correlation. Contracts designated and highly effective at meeting this risk reduction and correlation criteria are recorded using hedge accounting. We generally do not hedge anticipated transactions beyond 18 months. The following table presents a sensitivity analysis resulting from a hypothetical change of 10% in market prices as of June 28, 2025, and September 28, 2024, on the fair value of open positions. The fair value of such positions is a summation of the fair values calculated for each commodity by valuing each net position at quoted forward and option prices. The market risk exposure analysis included both derivatives designated as hedge instruments and derivatives not designated as hedge instruments.
| Effect of 10% change in fair value | in millions | ||||||||||
| June 28, 2025 | September 28, 2024 | ||||||||||
| Livestock: | |||||||||||
| Live Cattle | $ | 92 | $ | 11 | |||||||
| Lean Hogs | 25 | 24 | |||||||||
| Grain: | |||||||||||
| Corn | 14 | 11 | |||||||||
| Soybean Meal | 14 | 16 |
Interest Rate Risk
At June 28, 2025, we had variable rate debt of $787 million with a weighted average interest rate of 6.2%. A hypothetical 10% increase in interest rates effective at June 28, 2025 would increase annualized interest expense by approximately $5 million.
Additionally, changes in interest rates impact the fair value of our fixed-rate debt. At June 28, 2025, we had fixed-rate debt of $8,278 million with a weighted average interest rate of 4.8%. Market risk for fixed-rate debt is estimated as the potential increase in fair value, resulting from a hypothetical 10% decrease in interest rates. A hypothetical 10% change in interest rates would have changed the fair value of our fixed-rate debt by approximately $234 million at June 28, 2025 and $230 million at September 28, 2024. The fair values of our debt were estimated based on quoted market prices and/or published interest rates.
We are subject to interest rate risk associated with our pension and post-retirement benefit obligations. Changes in interest rates impact the liabilities associated with these benefit plans as well as the amount of income or expense recognized for these plans. Declines in the value of the plan assets could diminish the funded status of the pension plans and potentially increase the requirements to make cash contributions to these plans. See Part II, Item 8, Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements, Note 15: Pensions and Other Postretirement Benefits in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 28, 2024, for additional information.
Foreign Currency Risk
We have foreign exchange exposure from fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates primarily as a result of certain receivable and payable balances. The primary currencies we have exposure to are the Brazilian real, the British pound sterling, the Canadian dollar, the Chinese renminbi, the European euro, the Malaysian ringgit, the Mexican peso, and the Thai baht. We periodically enter into foreign exchange forward and option contracts to hedge some portion of our foreign currency exposure. A hypothetical 10% change in foreign exchange rates related to the foreign exchange forward and option contracts would have had a $23 million and $25 million impact on pretax income at June 28, 2025, and September 28, 2024, respectively.
Concentration of Credit Risk
Refer to our market risk disclosures set forth in our Annual Report filed on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended September 28, 2024, for a detailed discussion of quantitative and qualitative disclosures about concentration of credit risks.
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