Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

Market risk is the risk that in the normal course of business we may experience a loss in value because of changes in market conditions that affect economic factors such as commodity prices, interest rates and counterparty credit. Our exposure to market risk is affected by several factors, including the size, duration and composition of our energy and financial portfolio, as well as the volatility and liquidity of markets. Instruments used to manage this exposure include interest rate swaps to hedge debt costs, as well as exchange-traded, over-the-counter contracts and other contractual arrangements to hedge commodity prices.

Risk Oversight

We manage the commodity price, counterparty credit and commodity-related operational risk related to the competitive energy business within limitations established by senior management and in accordance with overall risk management policies. Interest rate risk is managed centrally by our treasury function. Market risks are monitored by risk management groups that operate independently of the wholesale commercial operations, utilizing defined practices and analytical methodologies. These techniques measure the risk of change in value of the portfolio of contracts and the hypothetical effect on this value from changes in market conditions and include, but are not limited to, position reporting and review, Value at Risk (VaR) methodologies and stress test scenarios. Key risk control activities include, but are not limited to, transaction review and approval (including credit review), operational and market risk measurement, transaction authority oversight, validation of transaction capture, market price validation and reporting, and portfolio valuation and reporting, including mark-to-market valuation, VaR and other risk measurement metrics.

Vistra has a risk management organization that enforces applicable risk limits, including the respective policies and procedures to ensure compliance with such limits, and evaluates the risks inherent in our businesses.

Commodity Price Risk

Our business is subject to the inherent risks of market fluctuations in the price of electricity, natural gas and other energy-related products it markets or purchases. We actively manage the portfolio of generation assets, fuel supply and retail sales load to mitigate the near-term impacts of these risks on results of operations. Similar to other participants in the market, we cannot fully manage the long-term value impact of structural declines or increases in natural gas and power prices.

In managing energy price risk, we enter into a variety of market transactions including, but not limited to, short- and long-term contracts for physical delivery, exchange-traded and over-the-counter financial contracts and bilateral contracts with customers. Activities include hedging, the structuring of long-term contractual arrangements and proprietary trading. We continuously monitor the valuation of identified risks and adjust positions based on current market conditions. We strive to use consistent assumptions regarding forward market price curves in evaluating and recording the effects of commodity price risk.

VaR Methodology

A VaR methodology is used to measure the amount of market risk that exists within the portfolio under a variety of market conditions. The resultant VaR produces an estimate of a portfolio's potential for loss given a specified confidence level and considers, among other things, market movements utilizing standard statistical techniques given historical and projected market prices and volatilities.

Parametric processes are used to calculate VaR and are considered by management to be the most effective way to estimate changes in a portfolio's value based on assumed market conditions for liquid markets. The use of these methods requires a number of key assumptions, such as use of (i) an assumed confidence level, (ii) an assumed holding period (i.e., the time necessary for management action, such as to liquidate positions); and (iii) historical estimates of volatility and correlation data. The table below details certain VaR measures related to various portfolios of contracts.

VaR for Underlying Generation Assets and Energy-Related Contracts

This measurement estimates the potential loss in value, due to changes in market conditions, of all underlying generation assets and contracts, based on a 95% confidence level and an assumed holding period of 60 days. The forward period covered by this calculation includes the current and subsequent calendar year at the time of calculation.

The month-end VaR risk measures in 2024 are consistent with prior year.

Price Sensitivities

The following sensitivity table provides approximate estimates of the potential impact of movements in power prices and spark spreads (the difference between the power revenue and fuel expense of natural gas-fired generation as calculated using an assumed Heat Rate of 7.2 MMBtu/MWh) on realized pre-tax earnings (in millions) taking into account the hedge positions noted above for the periods presented. The residual natural gas position is calculated based on two steps: first, calculating the difference between actual Heat Rates of our natural gas generation units and the assumed 7.2 Heat Rate used to calculate the sensitivity to spark spreads; and second, calculating the residual natural gas exposure that is not already included in the natural gas generation spark spread sensitivity shown in the table below. The estimates related to price sensitivity are based on our expected generation, related hedges and forward prices as of March 31, 2024.

Interest Rate Risk

We manage our interest rate risk to limit the impact of interest rate changes on our results of operations and cash flows and to lower our overall borrowing costs. To achieve these objectives, a majority of our borrowings have fixed interest rates.

As of March 31, 2024, the potential reduction of annual pretax earnings over the next twelve months due to a one percentage-point (100 basis points) increase in floating interest rates on long-term debt totaled approximately $9 million taking into account the interest rate swaps discussed in Note 11 to Financial Statements. The inflationary environment continues to drive elevated interest rates, resulting in increased recently completed and expected refinancing or borrowing costs. See Item 2. Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition, and Results of Operations – Significant Activities and Events, and Items Influencing Future Performance – Macroeconomic Conditions.

Credit Risk

Credit risk relates to the risk of loss associated with nonperformance by counterparties. We minimize credit risk by evaluating potential counterparties, monitoring ongoing counterparty risk and assessing overall portfolio risk. This includes review of counterparty financial condition, current and potential credit exposures, credit rating and other quantitative and qualitative credit criteria. We also employ certain risk mitigation practices, including utilization of standardized master agreements that provide for netting and setoff rights, as well as credit enhancements such as margin deposits and customer deposits, letters of credit, parental guarantees and surety bonds. See Note 11 to the Financial Statements for further discussion of this exposure.

Credit Exposure

Our gross credit exposure (excluding collateral impacts) associated with retail and wholesale trade accounts receivable and net derivative assets arising from commodity contracts and hedging and trading activities totaled $2.164 billion as of March 31, 2024.

As of March 31, 2024, Retail segment credit exposure totaled approximately $1.392 billion, including $1.370 billion of trade accounts receivable and $22 million related to derivatives. Cash deposits and letters of credit held as collateral for these receivables totaled $51 million, resulting in a net exposure of $1.341 billion. Allowances for uncollectible accounts receivable are established for the expected loss from nonpayment by these customers based on historical experience, market or operational conditions and changes in the financial condition of large business customers.

As of March 31, 2024, aggregate Texas, East, Sunset and Asset Closure segments credit exposure totaled $772 million including $681 million related to derivative assets and $91 million of trade accounts receivable, after taking into account master netting agreement provisions but excluding collateral impacts.

Including collateral posted to us by counterparties, our net Texas, East, Sunset and Asset Closure segments exposure was $581 million, as seen in the following table that presents the distribution of credit exposure by counterparty credit quality as of March 31, 2024. Credit collateral includes cash and letters of credit but excludes other credit enhancements such as guarantees or liens on assets.

Significant (i.e., 10% or greater) concentration of credit exposure exists with two counterparties, which represent an aggregate $310 million, or 53%, of our total net exposure as of March 31, 2024. We view exposure to these counterparties to be within an acceptable level of risk tolerance due to the counterparties' credit ratings, the counterparties' market role and deemed creditworthiness and the importance of our business relationship with the counterparties. An event of default by one or more counterparties could subsequently result in termination-related settlement payments that reduce available liquidity if amounts such as margin deposits are owed to the counterparties or delays in receipts of expected settlements owed to us.

Contracts classified as "normal" purchase or sale and non-derivative contractual commitments are not marked-to-market in the financial statements and are excluded from the detail above. Such contractual commitments may contain pricing that is favorable considering current market conditions and therefore represent economic risk if the counterparties do not perform.

**Item 4.**CONTROLS AND PROCEDURES

An evaluation was performed under the supervision and with the participation of our management, including the principal executive officer and principal financial officer, of the effectiveness of the design and operation of the disclosure controls and procedures (as such term is defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15a-15(e) of the Exchange Act) in effect at March 31, 2024. Based on the evaluation performed, our principal executive officer and principal financial officer concluded that the disclosure controls and procedures were effective. During the fiscal quarter covered by this quarterly report on Form 10-Q, other than additional controls associated with the integration of Energy Harbor due to the Energy Harbor Merger, there have been no changes in our internal control over financial reporting (as such term is defined in Rules 13a-15(e) and 15a-15(e) of the Exchange Act) during the most recently completed fiscal quarter that have materially affected, or are reasonably likely to materially affect, our internal control over financial reporting.

PART II. OTHER INFORMATION

**Item 1.**LEGAL PROCEEDINGS

Reference is made to the discussion in Note 15 to the Financial Statements regarding legal proceedings.