Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

Market risk is the risk of changes in value of a physical asset or a financial instrument, derivative or nonderivative, caused by fluctuations in market variables such as interest rates, commodity prices, and equity security prices. A derivative is a contract whose value is dependent on, or derived from, the value of some underlying asset or index. The following discussion of our risk management activities includes forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. We handle market risks in accordance with established policies, which may include entering into various derivative transactions. In the normal course of business, we also face risks that are either nonfinancial or nonquantifiable. Such risks, principally business, legal, and operational risks, are not part of the following discussion.

Our risk management objectives are to optimize our physical generating assets and to pursue market opportunities within prudent risk parameters. Our risk management policies are set by a risk management steering committee, which is composed of senior-level Ameren officers, with Ameren board of directors’ oversight.

Interest Rate Risk

We are exposed to market risk through changes in interest rates associated with:

We manage our interest rate exposure by controlling the amount of debt instruments within our total capitalization portfolio and by monitoring the effects of market changes on interest rates. For defined pension and postretirement benefit plans, we control the duration and the portfolio mix of our plan assets. See Note 1 – Summary of Significant Accounting Policies and Note 10 – Retirement Benefits under Part II, Item 8, of this report for additional information related to asset retirement obligations, goodwill, and the defined pension and postretirement benefit plans.

The estimated increase in our annual interest expense and decrease in net income if interest rates were to increase by 100 basis points on variable-rate debt outstanding at December 31, 2018 is immaterial.

The return on equity component under Ameren Illinois’ electric distribution service and its electric energy-efficiency investments formula ratemaking recovery mechanisms is equal to the annual average of the monthly yields of the 30-year United States Treasury bonds plus 580 basis points. Therefore, Ameren Illinois’ annual return on equity for its electric distribution business is directly correlated to the yields on such bonds, which are outside of Ameren Illinois’ control. A 50 basis point change in the annual average of the monthly yields of the 30-year United States Treasury bonds would result in an estimated $8 million change in Ameren’s and Ameren Illinois’ net income, based on its 2019 projected rate base. Interest rate levels also influence the return on equity allowed by our regulators in our other ratemaking jurisdictions.

Credit Risk

Credit risk represents the loss that would be recognized if counterparties should fail to perform as contracted. Exchange-traded contracts are supported by the financial and credit quality of the clearing members of the respective exchanges and carry only a nominal credit risk. In all other transactions, we are exposed to credit risk in the event of nonperformance by the counterparties to the transaction. See Note 7 – Derivative Financial Instruments under Part II, Item 8, of this report for information on the potential loss on counterparty exposure as of December 31, 2018.

Our revenues are primarily derived from sales or delivery of electricity and natural gas to customers in Missouri and Illinois. Our physical and financial instruments are subject to credit risk consisting of trade accounts receivables and executory contracts with market risk exposures. The risk associated with trade receivables is mitigated by the large number of customers in a broad range of industry groups who make up our customer base. At December 31, 2018, no nonaffiliated customer represented more than 10% of our accounts receivable. Additionally, Ameren Illinois faces risks associated with the purchase of receivables. The Illinois Public Utilities Act requires Ameren Illinois to establish electric utility consolidated billing and purchase of receivables services. At the option of an alternative retail electric supplier, Ameren Illinois may be required to purchase the supplier’s receivables relating to Ameren Illinois’ distribution customers who elected to receive power supply from the alternative retail electric supplier. When that option is selected, Ameren Illinois produces consolidated bills for the applicable retail customers to reflect charges for electric distribution and purchased receivables. As of December 31, 2018, Ameren Illinois’ balance of purchased accounts receivable associated with the utility consolidated billing and purchase of receivables services was $33 million. The risk associated with Ameren Illinois’ electric and natural gas trade receivables is also mitigated by a rate adjustment mechanism that allows Ameren Illinois to recover the difference between its actual net bad debt write-offs under GAAP and the amount of net bad debt write-offs included in its base rates. Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois continue to monitor the impact of increasing rates on customer collections, as applicable. Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois make adjustments to their respective allowance for doubtful accounts as deemed necessary to ensure that such allowances are adequate to cover estimated uncollectible customer account balances.

Investment Price Risk

Plan assets of the pension and postretirement trusts, the nuclear decommissioning trust fund, and company-owned life insurance contracts include equity and debt securities. The equity securities are exposed to price fluctuations in equity markets. The debt securities are exposed to changes in interest rates.

Our costs for providing defined benefit retirement and postretirement benefit plans are dependent upon a number of factors, including the rate of return on plan assets. Ameren manages plan assets in accordance with the “prudent investor” guidelines contained in ERISA. Ameren’s goal is to ensure that sufficient funds are available to provide benefits at the time they are payable, while also maximizing total return on plan assets and minimizing expense volatility consistent with its tolerance for risk. Ameren delegates investment management to specialists. Where appropriate, Ameren provides the investment manager with guidelines that specify allowable and prohibited investment types. Ameren regularly monitors manager performance and compliance with investment guidelines.

The expected return on plan assets assumption is based on historical and projected rates of return for current and planned asset classes in the investment portfolio. Projected rates of return for each asset class are estimated after an analysis of historical experience, future expectations, and the volatility of the various asset classes. After considering the target asset allocation for each asset class, we adjust the overall expected rate of return for the portfolio for historical and expected experience of active portfolio management results compared with benchmark returns, and for the effect of expenses paid from plan assets. Contributions to the plans and future costs could increase materially if we do not achieve pension and postretirement asset portfolio investment returns equal to or in excess of our 2019 assumed return on plan assets of 7.00%.

Ameren Missouri also maintains a trust fund, as required by the NRC and Missouri law, to fund certain costs of nuclear plant decommissioning. As of December 31, 2018, this fund was invested in domestic equity securities (62%) and debt securities (37%). By maintaining a portfolio that includes long-term equity investments, Ameren Missouri seeks to maximize the returns to be used to fund nuclear decommissioning costs within acceptable parameters of risk. Ameren Missouri actively monitors the portfolio by benchmarking the performance of its investments against certain indices and by maintaining and periodically reviewing established target allocation percentages of the trust assets to various investment options. Ameren Missouri’s exposure to equity price market risk is in large part mitigated because Ameren Missouri is currently allowed to recover its decommissioning costs, which would include unfavorable investment results, through electric rates.

Additionally, Ameren and Ameren Illinois have company-owned life insurance contracts with net asset values of $131 million and $9 million, respectively, as of December 31, 2018. Changes in the market values of these contracts are reflected in earnings.

Commodity Price Risk

Ameren Missouri’s and Ameren Illinois’ electric and natural gas distribution businesses exposure to changing market prices for commodities is in large part mitigated by the fact that there are cost recovery mechanisms in place. These cost recovery mechanisms allow Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois to pass on to retail customers prudently incurred costs for fuel, purchased power, and natural gas supply.

Ameren Missouri’s and Ameren Illinois’ strategy is designed to reduce the effect of market fluctuations for their customers. The effects of price volatility cannot be eliminated. However, procurement and sales strategies involve risk management techniques and instruments, as well as the management of physical assets.

Ameren Missouri has a FAC that allows it to recover or refund, through customer rates, 95% of the variance in net energy costs from the amount set in base rates without a traditional rate proceeding, subject to MoPSC prudence reviews. Ameren Missouri remains exposed to the remaining 5% of such changes.

Ameren Illinois has cost recovery mechanisms for power purchased, capacity, and zero emission credit and renewable energy credit costs and expects full recovery of such costs. Ameren Illinois is required to serve as the provider of last resort for electric customers in its service territory who have not chosen an alternative retail electric supplier. In 2018, Ameren Illinois supplied power for 23% of its kilowatthour sales to its electric customers. Ameren Illinois purchases energy and capacity through MISO and through bilateral contracts resulting from IPA procurement events. The IPA has proposed and the ICC has approved multiple procurement events covering portions of years through 2020 for capacity and 2021 for energy. Ameren Illinois has also entered into ICC-approved contracts for zero emission credits through 2026 and for renewable energy credits with 15-year terms commencing on the date of first renewable energy credit delivery. Ameren Illinois does not generate earnings based on the resale of power or purchase of zero emission credits or renewable energy credits but rather on the delivery of the energy.

Ameren Missouri and Ameren Illinois have PGA clauses that permit costs incurred for natural gas to be recovered directly from utility customers without a traditional rate proceeding, subject to prudence review.

The following table presents, as of December 31, 2018, the percentages of the projected required supply of coal and coal transportation for Ameren Missouri's coal-fired energy centers, nuclear fuel for Ameren Missouri’s Callaway energy center, natural gas for Ameren Missouri's retail distribution and purchased power for Ameren Illinois that are price-hedged over the period 2019 through 2023. The projected required supply of these commodities could be significantly affected by changes in our assumptions about customer demand for our electric generation and our electric and natural gas distribution services, generation output, and inventory levels, among other matters.

Our exposure to commodity price risk for construction and maintenance activities is related to changes in market prices for metal commodities and to labor availability.

Also see Note 14 – Commitments and Contingencies under Part II, Item 8, of this report for additional information.

Commodity Supplier Risk

The use of ultra-low-sulfur coal is part of Ameren Missouri’s environmental compliance strategy. Ameren Missouri has agreements with multiple suppliers to purchase ultra-low-sulfur coal through 2022 to comply with environmental regulations. Disruptions to the deliveries of ultra-low-sulfur coal from a supplier could compromise Ameren Missouri’s ability to operate in compliance with emission standards. The suppliers of ultra-low-sulfur coal are limited, and the construction of pollution control equipment requires significant lead time. If Ameren Missouri were to experience a temporary disruption of ultra-low-sulfur coal deliveries that caused it to exhaust its existing inventory, and if other sources of ultra-low-sulfur coal were not available, Ameren Missouri would have to use its existing emission allowances, purchase emission allowances to achieve compliance with environmental regulations, or purchase power necessary to meet demand.

Currently, the Callaway energy center uses nuclear fuel assemblies of a design fabricated by only a single supplier. That supplier is currently the only NRC-licensed supplier able to provide fuel assemblies to the Callaway energy center. Ameren Missouri is pursuing a program to qualify an alternate NRC-licensed supplier, and expects to obtain NRC approval in 2021.

Fair Value of Contracts

We use derivatives principally to manage the risk of changes in market prices for natural gas and power, as well as the risk of changes in rail transportation surcharges through fuel oil hedges. The following table presents the favorable (unfavorable) changes in the fair value of all derivative contracts marked-to-market during the year ended December 31, 2018. We use various methods to determine the fair value of our contracts. In accordance with authoritative accounting guidance for fair value hierarchy levels, the sources we used to determine the fair value of these contracts were active quotes (Level 1), inputs corroborated by market data (Level 2), and other modeling and valuation methods that are not corroborated by market data (Level 3). See Note 8 – Fair Value Measurements under Part II, Item 8, of this report for additional information regarding the methods used to determine the fair value of these contracts.

The following table presents maturities of derivative contracts as of December 31, 2018, based on the hierarchy levels used to determine the fair value of the contracts: