Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

Overview Regarding Market Risks

Our businesses are exposed to and proactively manage market risk. Our primary market risk exposure is to the price of commodities, particularly electricity, oil, natural gas, coal, and environmental credits. In addition, our businesses are exposed to lower electricity prices due to increased competition, including from renewable sources such as wind and solar, as a result of lower costs of entry and lower variable costs. We operate in multiple countries and as such, are subject to volatility in exchange rates at varying degrees at the subsidiary level and between our functional currency, the USD, and currencies of the countries in which we operate. We are also exposed to interest rate fluctuations due to our issuance of debt and related financial instruments.

The disclosures presented in this Item 3 are based upon a number of assumptions; actual effects may differ. The safe harbor provided in Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Exchange Act shall apply to the disclosures contained in this Item 3. For further information regarding market risk, see Item 1A.—Risk Factors, Fluctuations in currency exchange rates may impact our financial results and position; Wholesale power prices may experience significant volatility in our markets which could impact our operations and opportunities for future growth; We may not be adequately hedged against our exposure to changes in commodity prices or interest rates; and Certain of our businesses are sensitive to variations in weather and hydrology of the 2021 Form 10-K.

Commodity Price Risk

Although we prefer to hedge our exposure to the impact of market fluctuations in the price of electricity, fuels, and environmental credits, some of our generation businesses operate under short-term sales or under contract sales that leave an unhedged exposure on some of our capacity or through imperfect fuel pass-throughs. These businesses subject our operational results to the volatility of prices for electricity, fuels, and environmental credits in competitive markets. We employ risk management strategies to hedge our financial performance against the effects of fluctuations in energy commodity prices. The implementation of these strategies can involve the use of physical and financial commodity contracts, futures, swaps, and options.

The portion of our sales and purchases that are not subject to such agreements or contracted businesses where indexation is not perfectly matched to business drivers will be exposed to commodity price risk. When hedging the output of our generation assets, we utilize contract sales that lock in the spread per MWh between variable costs and the price at which the electricity can be sold.

AES businesses will see changes in variable margin performance as global commodity prices shift. As of September 30, 2022, we project pre-tax earnings exposure on a 10% (uncorrelated) appreciation of commodity prices would be less than a $5 million gain for power and coal, less than a $5 million loss for oil and natural gas. Our estimates exclude correlation of oil with coal or natural gas. For example, a decline in oil or natural gas prices can be accompanied by a decline in coal price if commodity prices are correlated. In aggregate, the Company’s downside exposure occurs with lower power, higher oil, higher natural gas, and higher coal prices. Exposures at individual businesses will change as new contracts or financial hedges are executed, and our sensitivity to changes in commodity prices generally increases in later years with reduced hedge levels at some of our businesses.

Commodity prices affect our businesses differently depending on the local market characteristics and risk management strategies. Spot power prices, contract indexation provisions, and generation costs can be directly or indirectly affected by movements in the price of natural gas, oil, and coal. We have some natural offsets across our businesses such that low commodity prices may benefit certain businesses and be a cost to others. Exposures are not perfectly linear or symmetric. The sensitivities are affected by a number of local or indirect market factors. Examples of these factors include hydrology, local energy market supply/demand balances, regional fuel supply issues, regional competition, bidding strategies, and regulatory interventions such as price caps. Operational flexibility changes the shape of our sensitivities. For instance, certain power plants may limit downside exposure by reducing dispatch in low market environments. Volume variation also affects our commodity exposure. The volume sold under contracts or retail concessions can vary based on weather and economic conditions, resulting in a higher or lower volume of sales in spot markets. Thermal unit availability and hydrology can affect the generation output available for sale and can affect the marginal unit setting power prices.

68 | The AES Corporation | September 30, 2022 Form 10-Q

In the US and Utilities SBU, the generation businesses are largely contracted, but may have residual risk to the extent contracts are not perfectly indexed to the business drivers. At Southland, our existing once-through cooling generation units (“Legacy Assets”) have been requested to continue operating beyond their current retirement date and the OTC policy establishing retirement deadlines has been extended for between one and three years. These assets have contracts in capacity and have seen incremental value in energy revenues.

In the South America SBU, our business in Chile owns assets in the central and northern regions of the country and has a portfolio of contract sales in both. The majority of our PPAs include mechanisms of indexation that adjust the price of energy based on fluctuations in the price of coal, with the specific indices and timing varying by contract, in order to mitigate changes in the price of fuel. For the portion of our contracts not indexed to the price of coal, we have implemented a hedging strategy based on international coal financial instruments for up to three years. In Colombia, we operate under a shorter-term sales strategy with spot market exposure for uncontracted volumes. Because we own hydroelectric assets there, contracts are not indexed to fuel. Additionally, in Brazil, the hydroelectric generating facility is covered by contract sales. Under normal hydrological volatility, spot price risk is mitigated through a regulated sharing mechanism across all hydroelectric generators in the country. Under drier conditions, the sharing mechanism may not be sufficient to cover the business' contract position, and therefore it may have to purchase power at spot prices driven by the cost of thermal generation.

In the MCAC SBU, our businesses have commodity exposure on unhedged volumes. Panama is highly contracted under financial and load-following PPA type structures, exposing the business to hydrology-based variation. To the extent hydrological inflows are greater than or less than the contract volumes, the business will be sensitive to changes in spot power prices which may be driven by oil and natural gas prices in some time periods. In the Dominican Republic, we own natural gas-fired assets contracted under a portfolio of contract sales, and both contract and spot prices may move with commodity prices. Additionally, the contract levels do not always match our generation availability; as such, our assets may be selling the excess above contract levels at spot prices or buy the deficit in the spot market to satisfy contractual obligations.

In the Eurasia SBU, our assets operating in Vietnam and Bulgaria have minimal exposure to commodity price risk as it has no or minor merchant exposure and fuel is subject to a pass-through mechanism.

Foreign Exchange Rate Risk

In the normal course of business, we are exposed to foreign currency risk and other foreign operations risks that arise from investments in foreign subsidiaries and affiliates. A key component of these risks stems from the fact that some of our foreign subsidiaries and affiliates utilize currencies other than our consolidated reporting currency, the USD. Additionally, certain of our foreign subsidiaries and affiliates have entered into monetary obligations in USD or currencies other than their own functional currencies. Certain of our foreign subsidiaries calculate and pay taxes in currencies other than their own functional currency. We have varying degrees of exposure to changes in the exchange rate between the USD and the following currencies: Argentine peso, Brazilian real, Chilean peso, Colombian peso, Dominican peso, Euro, and Mexican peso. These subsidiaries and affiliates have attempted to limit potential foreign exchange exposure by entering into revenue contracts that adjust to changes in foreign exchange rates. We also use foreign currency forwards, swaps, and options, where possible, to manage our risk related to certain foreign currency fluctuations.

AES enters into foreign currency hedges to protect economic value of the business and minimize the impact of foreign exchange rate fluctuations to AES’ portfolio. While protecting cash flows, the hedging strategy is also designed to reduce forward-looking earnings foreign exchange volatility. Due to variation of timing and amount between cash distributions and earnings exposure, the hedge impact may not fully cover the earnings exposure on a realized basis, which could result in greater volatility in earnings. The largest foreign exchange risks over the remaining period of 2022 stem from the following currencies: Brazilian real, Colombian peso, and Euro. As of September 30, 2022, assuming a 10% USD appreciation, cash distributions attributable to foreign subsidiaries exposed to movement in the exchange rate of the Euro and Brazilian real are projected to be impacted by less than $5 million loss, and less than $5 million gain for Colombia peso. These numbers have been produced by applying a one-time 10% USD appreciation to forecasted exposed cash distributions for 2022 coming from the respective subsidiaries exposed to the currencies listed above, net of the impact of outstanding hedges and holding all other variables constant. The numbers presented above are net of any transactional gains or losses. These sensitivities may change in the future as new hedges are executed or existing hedges are unwound. Additionally, updates to the forecasted cash distributions exposed to foreign exchange risk may result in further modification. The sensitivities presented do not capture the impacts of any administrative market restrictions or currency inconvertibility.

Interest Rate Risks

69 | The AES Corporation | September 30, 2022 Form 10-Q

We are exposed to risk resulting from changes in interest rates as a result of our issuance of variable and fixed-rate debt, as well as interest rate swap, cap, floor, and option agreements.

Decisions on the fixed-floating debt mix are made to be consistent with the risk factors faced by individual businesses or plants. Depending on whether a plant’s capacity payments or revenue stream is fixed or varies with inflation, we partially hedge against interest rate fluctuations by arranging fixed-rate or variable-rate financing. In certain cases, particularly for non-recourse financing, we execute interest rate swap, cap, and floor agreements to effectively fix or limit the interest rate exposure on the underlying financing. Most of our interest rate risk is related to non-recourse financings at our businesses.

As of September 30, 2022, the portfolio’s pre-tax earnings exposure for 2022 to a one-time 100-basis-point increase in interest rates for our Argentine peso, Brazilian real, Chilean peso, Colombian peso, Euro, and USD denominated debt would be less than $5 million on interest expense for the debt denominated in these currencies. These amounts do not take into account the historical correlation between these interest rates.