Item 7. MANAGEMENT’S DISCUSSION AND ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL CONDITION AND RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

OVERVIEW

Our company is comprised of two reporting segments: North America and Rest of World. Our Rest of World segment is primarily comprised of China, Europe and India. Both segments manufacture and market comprehensive lines of residential and commercial gas and electric water heaters, boilers, tanks and water treatment products. Both segments primarily manufacture and market in their respective regions of the world. Our Rest of World segment also manufactures and markets in-home air purification products in China.

In our North America segment, we project our sales in the U.S. will grow in 2019 compared to 2018 due to higher residential water heater and boiler volumes resulting from expected industry-wide new construction growth and expansion of replacement demand. We expect the North America commercial water heater industry to be flat in 2019, after declining over five percent in 2018 following growth of 11 percent in 2017, partially due to an anticipated regulatory change. Our sales of boilers grew nine percent in 2018, and we expect ten percent sales growth in 2019, driven by the continuing U.S. industry transition to higher efficiency products and our introduction of new products. We continued to expand our North America water treatment platform in 2018 by being named exclusive supplier of water treatment products to Lowe’s, with sales commencing in August 2018. We expect sales of North America water treatment products to increase by 35 to 40 percent in 2019, compared to 2018, primarily due to volume growth and a full year of sales to Lowe’s.

In our Rest of World segment, we expect China sales to decline in 2019 at a rate of between seven and 10 percent in U.S. dollars and three to six percent in local currency, as we believe the Chinese economy will continue to be weak and the Chinese currency will depreciate compared to the U.S. dollar by approximately four percent in 2019 compared with 2018. In addition, we expect our sales in India to grow over 30 percent in 2019 from approximately $34 million in 2018.

Combining all of these factors, we expect our consolidated sales to grow one to 2.5 percent and between 2.5 to four percent in local currency terms in 2019.

Our stated acquisition strategy includes a number of our water-related strategic initiatives. We will seek to continue to grow our core residential and commercial water heating, boiler and water treatment businesses throughout the world. We will also continue to look for opportunities to add to our existing operations in high growth regions demonstrated by our introduction of water treatment products in India and Vietnam and air purification products in China in 2015.

RESULTS OF OPERATIONS

Our sales in 2018 were a Company record $3,188 million surpassing 2017 sales of $2,997 million by 6.4 percent. The increase in sales in 2018 was primarily due to pricing actions related to higher steel costs and higher sales of boilers and residential water heaters in the U.S. as well as higher sales of water treatment products in China. Our global water treatment sales grew to approximately $400 million in 2018. Sales in China grew four percent in 2018. Excluding the impact of the appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese currency, our sales in China increased almost two percent in 2018. Our sales in 2017 were higher than 2016 sales of $2,686 million by 11.6 percent, primarily due to higher sales in China as well as higher sales of water heaters and boilers in North America. Our sales in China grew 15.9 percent in 2017 to over $1 billion, and excluding the impact of the appreciation of the U.S dollar against the Chinese currency, sales in China grew 17.9 percent in 2017 compared to 2016.

Our gross profit margin in 2018 of 41.0 percent was essentially flat compared to our gross profit margin of 41.1 percent in 2017. Our gross profit margin in 2017 decreased from 41.5 percent in 2016. The slightly lower margin in 2017 compared to 2016 was due to significantly higher steel costs that more than offset pricing actions taken in 2017 in North America and China.

Selling, general and administrative (SG&A) expenses were $31.0 million higher in 2018 than in 2017. The increase in SG&A expenses in 2018 to $753.8 million was primarily due to higher advertising expenses related to brand building and higher product development engineering expenses in China. SG&A expenses were $60.3 million higher in 2017 than in 2016 primarily due to higher selling and advertising expenses to support increased volumes and brand building in our newer product categories.

On March 21, 2018, we announced a plan to close our Renton, Washington plant and transfer water heater, boiler and storage tank production to our other U.S. plants. The majority of the consolidation of operations occurred in the second quarter of 2018 and the Renton plant was fully closed in the third quarter of 2018. As a result of the relocation of production, we incurred pre-tax restructuring and impairment expenses of $6.7 million in the first quarter of 2018, primarily related to employee severance and compensation-related costs, building lease exit costs and the impairment of assets. These activities are reflected in “restructuring and impairment expenses” in the accompanying financial statements.

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We are providing non-GAAP measures (adjusted earnings, adjusted earnings per share (EPS), and adjusted segment earnings) that exclude Renton related restructuring and impairment expenses and one-time expenses associated with the U.S. Tax Cuts & Jobs Act (U.S. Tax Reform). Reconciliations to measures on a GAAP basis are provided later in this section.

Interest expense was $8.4 million in 2018 compared to $10.1 million in 2017 and $7.3 million in 2016. Higher interest rates in 2018 were offset by lower debt levels, primarily due to the repatriation of approximately $312 million of cash from outside of the U.S., which was primarily used to pay down floating rate debt, as well as, to fund our share repurchase activity and dividend payments. The higher interest expense in 2017 compared to 2016 was primarily related to higher interest rates as well as higher overall debt levels primarily due to increased share repurchases and acquisitions completed in 2016 and 2017.

Other income was $21.2 million in 2018 compared to $21.3 million in 2017 and $18.1 million in 2016. The increase in other income in 2017 compared to 2016 was primarily due to higher non-service cost related pension income and higher interest income.

Pension income in 2018 was $8.7 million compared to $9.1 million in 2017 and $6.9 million in 2016. The service cost component of our pension income is reflected in cost of products sold and SG&A expenses. All other components of our pension income are reflected in other income.

Our effective income tax rate was 20.4 percent in 2018, compared with 43.1 percent in 2017 and 29.4 percent in 2016. The significant increase in our effective income tax rate in 2017 compared to prior years was due to one-time charges associated with U.S. Tax Reform of $81.8 million, primarily related to the mandatory repatriation tax on undistributed foreign earnings that we are required to pay over eight years. Excluding the impact of the U.S. Tax Reform one-time charges, our adjusted effective income tax rate was 27.4 percent in 2017. Our effective income tax rate in 2018 was lower than our adjusted effective income tax rate in 2017 due to lower federal income taxes related to U.S. Tax Reform. Our adjusted effective income tax rate in 2017 was lower than our effective income tax rate in 2016 primarily due to lower U.S. state income taxes and higher deductions for share-based compensation. We estimate our annual effective income tax rate for the full year 2019 will be approximately 21.5 percent.

North America

Sales in our North America segment were $2,045 million in 2018 or $140 million higher than sales of $1,905 million in 2017. The increase in sales in 2018 compared to 2017 was primarily due to pricing actions related to higher steel costs and higher volumes of boilers and residential water heaters in the U.S. North America water treatment sales, including a full year of sales from Hague and the launch of products at Lowe’s commencing in August 2018, incrementally added approximately $29 million of sales in 2018. Sales in 2017 were $162 million higher than sales of $1,743 million in 2016. The increase in sales in 2017 compared to 2016 was primarily due to higher volumes of water heaters and boilers, price increases in the U.S. for water heaters largely related to steel cost increases as well as our customers’ pre-buy of commercial water heaters in advance of an anticipated 2018 regulatory change. North America water treatment sales, comprised of Hague, acquired in September 2017 and Aquasana, acquired in August 2016, incrementally added approximately $40 million of sales in 2017.

North America segment earnings were $464.1 million in 2018 compared to segment earnings of $428.6 million and $385.9 million in 2017 and 2016, respectively. Segment margins were 22.7 percent, 22.5 percent and 22.1 percent in 2018, 2017 and 2016, respectively. Adjusted segment earnings and segment margin in 2018, which exclude restructuring and impairment expenses, were $470.8 million and 23.0 percent, respectively. The higher adjusted segment earnings and adjusted segment margin in 2018 compared to 2017 were primarily due to the favorable impact from higher sales of residential water heaters and boilers and pricing actions in the U.S. that were partially offset by higher steel costs and one-time expenses associated with the launch of water treatment products at Lowe’s. The higher segment earnings and segment margin in 2017 compared to 2016 were primarily due to higher water heater and boiler volumes and pricing actions which were partially offset by higher steel costs. We estimate our 2019 North America segment margin will be between 23 and 23.5 percent.

Rest of World

Sales in our Rest of World segment in 2018 were $1,174 million or $58 million higher than sales of $1,116 million in 2017. Sales in China grew four percent in 2018 primarily due to higher sales of water treatment products, including consumables, which were partially offset by lower sales of electric water heaters and air purifiers. The appreciation of the U.S. dollar against the Chinese currency contributed approximately $23 million to segment sales in 2018. Excluding the benefit of the U.S. dollar appreciation, sales in China increased 1.9 percent in 2018. Water heater and water treatment sales in India increased $8 million, over 30 percent, in 2018 compared to 2017. Sales in our Rest of World segment in 2017 were $150 million higher than sales of $966 million in 2016. Sales in China grew 15.9 percent to over $1 billion in 2017 due to higher demand for our

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consumer products, led by water treatment and air purification products and pricing actions primarily due to higher steel and installation costs. Excluding the impact from the appreciation of the U.S. dollar in 2017, sales in China increased 17.9 percent. Water heater and water treatment sales in India increased $8 million, over 40 percent, in 2017 compared to 2016.

Rest of World segment earnings were $149.3 million in 2018 compared to segment earnings of $149.3 million and $129.1 million in 2017 and 2016, respectively. Segment margins were 12.7 percent in 2018 compared to 13.4 percent and 13.4 percent in 2017 and 2016, respectively. Segment earnings in 2018 were flat compared to 2017 primarily due to higher water treatment product sales and improved performance in India that were offset by lower sales of electric water heaters and air purifiers as well as higher SG&A expenses. Higher SG&A expenses in China were primarily due to higher advertising expenses related to brand building and higher product development engineering expenses. Segment margin declined in 2018 compared to 2017 as a result of the factors above. Higher segment earnings in 2017 compared to 2016 were primarily due to higher sales in China, which included a price increase, partially offset by higher steel costs, higher fees paid to installers and increased SG&A expenses. Higher SG&A expenses in China were primarily due to the expansion of water treatment and air purification product retail outlets in tier 2 and tier 3 cities, higher advertising expenses related to brand building in our newer product categories and higher water treatment product development engineering costs. We expect our 2019 Rest of World segment margin will be approximately 12 to 12.5 percent due to lower sales and profitability in China.

LIQUIDITY AND CAPITAL RESOURCES

Our working capital was $853.2 million at December 31, 2018 compared with $973.1 million and $791.2 million at December 31, 2017 and December 31, 2016, respectively. Approximately $312 million in foreign cash was repatriated in 2018 and utilized to repay floating rate debt, pay dividends and repurchase shares. The decline in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities balances more than offset sales-related increases in accounts receivable, and explains the majority of the decline in working capital in 2018. Cash generation in China and sales-related increases in accounts receivable, and inventory levels led to the majority of the increase in working capital in 2017. As of December 31, 2018, essentially all of our $645.0 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities was held by our foreign subsidiaries. We expect to repatriate approximately $150 million in the first half of 2019 and use the proceeds to repay floating rate debt.

Cash provided by operating activities during 2018 was $448.9 million compared with $326.4 million during 2017 and $446.6 million during 2016. The increase in cash flows in 2018 compared to 2017 was primarily due to higher earnings and lower outlays for working capital in 2018. The decline in cash flows in 2017 compared to 2016 was primarily due to higher outlays for working capital than the below normal levels experienced in 2016, which more than offset the impact of higher earnings in 2017.

Our capital expenditures were $85.2 million in 2018, $94.2 million in 2017 and $80.7 million in 2016. We broke ground in 2016 on the construction of a new water treatment and air purification products manufacturing facility in Nanjing, China, to support the expected growth of these products in China. The facility became operational in May 2018. Included in 2018 capital expenditures were approximately $13 million related to capacity expansion in China. Included in 2017 capital expenditures were approximately $24 million related to capacity expansion in China. Included in 2016 capital expenditures were approximately $13 million related to capacity expansion in China as well as approximately $11 million related to the continuation of our enterprise resource planning (ERP) system implementation. For 2019, we project approximately $85 million of capital expenditures and approximately $75 million of depreciation and amortization expense.

In November 2016, we issued $45 million of fixed rate term notes in two tranches to two insurance companies. Principal payments commence in 2023 and 2028 and the notes mature in 2029 and 2034, respectively. The notes carry interest rates of 2.87 and 3.10, respectively. We used proceeds of the notes to pay down borrowings under our revolving credit facility.

In December 2016, we completed a $500 million multi-currency five year revolving credit facility with a group of nine banks. The facility has an accordion provision which allows it to be increased up to $700 million if certain conditions (including lender approval) are satisfied. Borrowing rates under the facility are determined by our leverage ratio. The facility requires us to maintain two financial covenants, a leverage ratio test and an interest coverage test, and we were in compliance with the covenants as of December 31, 2018. The facility backs up commercial paper and credit line borrowings, and it expires on December 15, 2021. As a result of the long-term nature of this facility, the commercial paper and credit line borrowings as well as drawings under the facility are classified as long-term debt.

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At December 31, 2018, we had available borrowing capacity of $398.6 million under this facility. We believe that our combination of cash, available borrowing capacity and operating cash flow will provide sufficient funds to finance our existing operations for the foreseeable future.

Our total debt declined to $221.4 million at December 31, 2018 compared with $410.4 million at December 31, 2017. We repatriated approximately $312 million cash and paid down debt, which was partially offset by share repurchase activity exceeding cash generation in the U.S. As a result, our leverage, as measured by the ratio of total debt to total capitalization, was 11.4 percent at the end of 2018 compared with 19.9 percent at the end of 2017.

Our U.S. pension plan continues to meet all funding requirements under ERISA regulations. We were not required to make a contribution to our pension plan in 2018. We forecast that we will not be required to make a contribution to the plan in 2019, and we do not plan to make any voluntary contributions in 2019. For further information on our pension plans, see Note 12 of the Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

In 2018, we repurchased 3,797,800 shares at an average price of $53.34 per share and a total cost of $202.6 million. Our Board of Directors increased the number of shares we are authorized to repurchase by 2,500,000 shares and 5,000,000 shares at its July 2018 and December 2018 meetings, respectively. A total of 6,075,253 shares remained on the existing repurchase authorization at December 31, 2018. Depending on factors such as stock price, working capital requirements and alternative investment opportunities, such as acquisitions, we expect to spend approximately $200 million on share repurchase activity in 2019 using a combination of a 10b5-1 repurchase plan and opportunistic purchases.

We have paid dividends for 79 consecutive years with annual amounts increasing each of the last 27 years. We paid dividends of $0.76 per share in 2018 compared with $0.56 per share in 2017. We increased our dividend rate twice in 2018, and the five year compound annual growth rate of our dividend is approximately 30 percent.

Aggregate Contractual Obligations

A summary of our contractual obligations as of December 31, 2018, is as follows:

(dollars in millions)						Payments due by period
Contractual Obligations		Total				Less Than 1 year				1 - 2 Years				3 - 5 Years				More than 5 years
Long-term debt		$	221.4			$	—			$	115.0			$	16.9			$	89.5
Fixed rate interest			30.0				4.0				7.2				6.3				12.5
Operating leases			69.1				14.8				20.0				11.0				23.3
Purchase obligations			144.0				143.6				0.4				—				—
Pension and post-retirement obligations			46.8				4.7				6.7				2.1				33.3
Total		$	511.3			$	167.1			$	149.3			$	36.3			$	158.6

As of December 31, 2018, our liability for uncertain income tax positions was $8.3 million. Due to the high degree of uncertainty regarding timing of potential future cash flows associated with these liabilities, we are unable to make a reasonably reliable estimate of the amount and period in which these liabilities might be paid.

We utilize blanket purchase orders to communicate expected annual requirements to many of our suppliers. Requirements under blanket purchase orders generally do not become committed until several weeks prior to our scheduled unit production. The purchase obligation amount presented above represents the value of commitments that we consider firm.

Recent Accounting Pronouncements

Refer to Recent Accounting Pronouncements in Note 1 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

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Critical Accounting Policies

Our accounting policies are described in Note 1 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements. Also as disclosed in Note 1, the preparation of financial statements in conformity with accounting principles generally accepted in the U.S. requires the use of estimates and assumptions about future events that affect the amounts reported in the financial statements and accompanying notes. Future events and their effects cannot be determined with absolute certainty. Therefore, the determination of estimates requires the exercise of judgment. Actual results inevitably will differ from those estimates, and such differences may be material to the financial statements.

The most significant accounting estimates inherent in the preparation of our financial statements include estimates associated with the evaluation of the impairment of goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets, as well as significant estimates used in the determination of liabilities related to warranty activity, product liability and pensions. Various assumptions and other factors underlie the determination of these significant estimates. The process of determining significant estimates is fact-specific and takes into account factors such as historical experience and trends, and in some cases, actuarial techniques. We monitor these significant factors and adjustments are made as facts and circumstances dictate. Historically, actual results have not significantly deviated from those determined using the estimates described above.

Goodwill and Indefinite-lived Intangible Assets

In conformity with U.S. Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets are tested for impairment annually or more frequently if events or changes in circumstances indicate that the assets might be impaired. We perform impairment reviews for our reporting units using a fair-value method based on management’s judgments and assumptions. The fair value represents the estimated amount at which a reporting unit could be bought or sold in a current transaction between willing parties on an arm’s-length basis. The estimated fair value is then compared with the carrying amount of the reporting unit, including recorded goodwill. We are subject to financial statement risk to the extent that goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets become impaired. Any impairment review is, by its nature, highly judgmental as estimates of future sales, earnings and cash flows are utilized to determine fair values. However, we believe that we conduct thorough and competent annual valuations of goodwill and indefinite-lived intangible assets and that there has been no impairment in goodwill or indefinite-lived assets in 2018.

Product warranty

Our products carry warranties that generally range from one to ten years and are based on terms that are generally accepted in the market. We provide for the estimated cost of product warranty at the time of sale. The product warranty provision is estimated based upon warranty loss experience using actual historical failure rates and estimated costs of product replacement. The variables used in the calculation of the provision are reviewed at least annually. At times, warranty issues may arise which are beyond the scope of our historical experience. We provide for any such warranty issues as they become known and estimable. While our warranty costs have historically been within calculated estimates, it is possible that future warranty costs could differ significantly from those estimates. The allocation of the warranty liability between current and long-term is based on the expected warranty liability to be paid in the next year as determined by historical product failure rates. At December 31, 2018 and 2017, our reserve for product warranties was $139.3 million and $141.2 million, respectively.

Product liability

Due to the nature of our products, we are subject to product liability claims in the normal course of business. We maintain insurance to reduce our risk. Most insurance coverage includes self-insured retentions that vary by year. In 2018, we maintained a self-insured retention of $7.5 million per occurrence with an aggregate insurance limit of $125.0 million.

We establish product liability reserves for our self-insured retention portion of any known outstanding matters based on the likelihood of loss and our ability to reasonably estimate such loss. There is inherent uncertainty as to the eventual resolution of unsettled matters due to the unpredictable nature of litigation. We make estimates based on available information and our best judgment after consultation with appropriate advisors and experts. We periodically revise estimates based upon changes to facts or circumstances. We also utilize an actuary to calculate reserves required for estimated incurred but not reported claims as well as to estimate the effect of adverse development of claims over time. At December 31, 2018 and 2017, our reserve for product liability was $39.3 million and $40.1 million, respectively.

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Pensions

We have significant pension benefit costs that are developed from actuarial valuations. The valuations reflect key assumptions regarding, among other things, discount rates, expected return on plan assets, retirement ages, and years of service. Consideration is given to current market conditions, including changes in interest rates in making these assumptions. Our assumption for the expected return on plan assets was 7.15 percent in 2018 and 7.50 percent in 2017. The discount rate used to determine net periodic pension costs decreased to 3.65 percent in 2018 from 4.15 percent in 2017. For 2019, our expected return on plan assets is 7.15 percent and our discount rate is 4.32 percent.

In developing our expected return on plan assets, we evaluate our pension plan’s current and target asset allocation, the expected long-term rates of return of equity and bond indices and the actual historical returns of our pension plan. Our plan’s target allocation to equity managers is approximately 30 to 60 percent, with the remainder allocated primarily to bond managers, private equity managers and real estate managers. Our actual asset allocation as of December 31, 2018, was 40 percent to equity managers, 48 percent to bond managers, 10 percent to real estate managers, and two percent to private equity managers. We regularly review our actual asset allocation and periodically rebalance our investments to our targeted allocation when considered appropriate. Our pension plan’s historical ten-year and 25-year compounded annualized returns are 8.9 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively. We believe that with our target allocation and the expected long-term returns of equity and bond indices as well as our actual historical returns, our 7.15 percent expected return on plan assets for 2019 is reasonable.

The discount rate assumptions used to determine future pension obligations at December 31, 2018 and 2017 were based on the Aon AA Only Above Median yield curve, which was designed by Aon to provide a means for plan sponsors to value the liabilities of their postretirement benefit plans. The AA Only Above Median yield curve represents a series of annual discount rates from bonds with AA minimum average rating as rated by Moody’s Investor Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings. We will continue to evaluate our actuarial assumptions at least annually, and we will adjust the assumptions as necessary.

We recognized pension income of $8.7 million, $9.1 million, and $6.9 million in 2018, 2017, and 2016, respectively.

Costs associated with our replacement retirement plan in 2018 were approximately $6 million, consistent with 2017. We made changes to our pension plan including closing the plan to new entrants effective January 1, 2010, and the sunset of our plan for the majority of our employees on December 31, 2014. Lowering the expected return on plan assets by 25 basis points would decrease our net pension income for 2018 by approximately $2.0 million. Lowering the discount rate by 25 basis points would increase our 2018 net pension income by approximately $0.1 million.

Non-GAAP Measures

We provide non-GAAP measures (adjusted earnings, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and adjusted segment earnings) that exclude restructuring and impairment expenses in 2018 and the impact of a one-time charge associated with U.S. Tax Reform in 2017.

We believe that the measures of adjusted earnings, adjusted EPS and adjusted segment earnings provide useful information to investors about our performance and allow management and our investors to better compare our performance year over year.

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A. O. SMITH CORPORATION

Adjusted Earnings and Adjusted EPS

(dollars in millions, except per share data)

(unaudited)

The following is a reconciliation of net earnings and diluted earnings per share (EPS) to adjusted earnings (non-GAAP) and adjusted EPS (non-GAAP):

		Years ended December 31,
		2018				2017
Net Earnings (GAAP)		$	444.2			$	296.5
Restructuring and impairment expenses, before tax(1)			6.7				—
Tax effect of restructuring and impairment expenses			(1.7	)			—
U.S. Tax Reform income tax expense(2)			—				81.8
Adjusted Earnings		$	449.2			$	378.3
Diluted EPS (GAAP)		$	2.58			$	1.70
Restructuring and impairment expenses per diluted share(1)			0.4			$	—
Tax effect of restructuring and impairment expenses per diluted share			(0.1	)			—
U.S. Tax Reform income tax expense(2)			—				0.47
Adjusted EPS		$	2.61			$	2.17

The following is a reconciliation of reported segment earnings to adjusted segment earnings (non-GAAP):

		Years ended December 31,
		2018				2017
Segment Earnings (GAAP)
North America		$	464.1			$	428.6
Rest of World			149.3				149.3
Total Segment Earnings (GAAP)		$	613.4			$	577.9
Adjustments
North America (1)		$	6.7			$	—
Rest of World			—				—
Total Adjustments		$	6.7			$	—
Adjusted Segment Earnings
North America		$	470.8			$	428.6
Rest of World			149.3				149.3
Total Adjusted Segment Earnings		$	620.1			$	577.9

(1)	We recognized $6.7 million of restructuring and impairment expenses in connection with the move of manufacturing operations from our Renton, Washington facility to other U.S. facilities. For additional information, see Note 4 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

(2)	Excluding the impact of one-time U.S. Tax Reform charges, our 2017 adjusted effective income tax rate was 27.4 percent as compared to our effective income tax rate of 43.1 percent in 2017. For additional information, see Note 14 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

Outlook

We expect continued strong boiler and residential water heater sales in North America in 2019. We project that sales in China will decline by seven to ten percent in U.S. dollar terms and three to six percent in local currency in 2019. The decrease is due to our expectation of relatively flat consumer demand in China and without the increase of the channel inventory build in China that we experienced primarily in the first quarter of 2018 which we estimate was at least five percent of 2018 China sales. As a result, we expect our consolidated sales to grow one to 2.5 percent and between 2.5 to four percent in local currency terms in 2019. We expect to achieve full-year earnings of between $2.67 and $2.77 per share, which excludes the potential impact from future acquisitions.

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OTHER MATTERS

Environmental

Our operations are governed by a number of federal, foreign, state, local and environmental laws concerning the generation and management of hazardous materials, the discharge of pollutants into the environment and remediation of sites owned by the company or third parties. We have expended financial and managerial resources complying with such laws. Expenditures related to environmental matters were not material in 2018 and we do not expect them to be material in any single year. We have reserves associated with environmental obligations at various facilities and we believe these reserves together with available insurance coverage are sufficient to cover reasonably anticipated remediation costs. Although we believe that our operations are substantially in compliance with such laws and maintain procedures designed to maintain compliance, there are no assurances that substantial additional costs for compliance will not be incurred in the future. However, since the same laws govern our competitors, we should not be placed at a competitive disadvantage.

Market Risk

We are exposed to various types of market risks, primarily currency. We monitor our risks in such areas on a continuous basis and generally enter into forward contracts to minimize such exposures for periods of less than one year. We do not engage in speculation in our derivatives strategies. Further discussion regarding derivative instruments is contained in Note 1 of Notes to Consolidated Financial Statements.

We enter into foreign currency forward contracts to minimize the effect of fluctuating foreign currencies. At December 31, 2018, we had net foreign currency contracts outstanding with notional values of $210.9 million. Assuming a hypothetical ten percent movement in the respective currencies, the potential foreign exchange gain or loss associated with the change in exchange rates would amount to $21.1 million. However, gains and losses from our forward contracts will be offset by gains and losses in the underlying transactions being hedged.

Our earnings exposure related to movements in interest rates is primarily derived from outstanding floating-rate debt instruments that are determined by short-term money market rates. At December 31, 2018, we had $101.4 million in outstanding floating-rate debt with a weighted-average interest rate of 2.9 percent at year end. A hypothetical ten percent annual increase or decrease in the year-end average cost of our outstanding floating-rate debt would result in a change in annual pre-tax interest expense of approximately $0.3 million.

Forward-Looking Statements

This filing contains statements that we believe are “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements generally can be identified by the use of words such as “may,” “will,” “expect,” “intend,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “forecast,” “guidance” or words of similar meaning. All forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated as of the date of this filing. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from these expectations include, among other things, the following: a further weakening of the Chinese economy and/or a further decline in the growth rate of consumer spending or housing sales in China; negative impact to our businesses from international tariffs and trade disputes; potential weakening in the high efficiency boiler segment in the U.S.; significant volatility in raw material prices; our inability to implement or maintain pricing actions; potential weakening in U.S. residential or commercial construction or instability in our replacement markets; foreign currency fluctuations; our inability to successfully integrate or achieve our strategic objectives resulting from acquisitions; competitive pressures on our businesses; the impacts of potential information technology or data security breaches; changes in government regulations or regulatory requirements; and adverse developments in general economic, political and business conditions in key regions of the world. Forward-looking statements included in this filing are made only as of the date of this filing, and we are under no obligation to update these statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances. All subsequent written and oral forward-looking statements attributed to the Company, or persons acting on our behalf, are qualified entirely by these cautionary statements.