Item 3. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK

Market risk is the risk of incurring losses due to adverse changes in market rates and prices. Included in market risk are potential losses in value due to credit and counterparty risk, interest rate risk, currency risk, commodity price risk, equity price risk and inflation risk.

In our asset management business, our predominant exposure to market risk is related to our role as investment manager and general partner for the funds we manage, and the sensitivity to movements in the fair value of their investments and resulting impact on performance fees and management fee revenues. Our direct investments in the funds also expose us to market risk whereby movements in the fair values of the underlying investments will increase or decrease both net gains (losses) from investment activities and income (loss) from equity method investments.

Our retirement services business is exposed to market risk through its investment portfolio, its counterparty exposures, as well as its hedging and reinsurance activities. Athene’s primary market risk exposures are to credit risk, interest rate risk, equity price risk and inflation risk.

For a discussion of our market risk exposures in general, please see “Item 3. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk” in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended March 31, 2022, which is accessible on the Securities and Exchange Commission’s website at www.sec.gov and is incorporated by reference into this report.

There have been no material changes to market risk exposures from those previously disclosed in Apollo and Athene’s 2021 Annual Reports other than those disclosed below.

Retirement Services

Interest Rate Risk

Athene assesses interest rate exposure for financial assets and financial liabilities using hypothetical stress tests and exposure analyses. Assuming all other factors are constant, if there was an immediate parallel increase in interest rates of 25 basis points from levels as of September 30, 2022, Athene estimates a net decrease to its point-in-time pre-tax income from changes in the fair value of these financial instruments of $749 million. The net change in fair value for these financial instruments would directly impact the current period gross profits and assessments used in the calculations of DAC and DSI amortization and changes in rider reserves, resulting in an offsetting increase to Athene’s pre-tax income of $24 million. If there were a similar parallel increase in interest rates from levels as of December 31, 2021, Athene estimates a net decrease to its point-in-time pre-tax income from changes in the fair value of these financial instruments of $511 million with an offsetting increase to pre-tax income of $17 million from DAC, DSI and VOBA amortization and changes in rider reserves. The increase in sensitivity was primarily due to (i) the election of the fair value accounting option for Athene’s mortgage loan portfolio, and (ii) materially different offsets stemming from DAC, DSI, and VOBA balances as a result of purchase accounting. The financial instruments included in the sensitivity analysis are carried at fair value and changes in fair value are recognized in earnings. These financial instruments include derivative instruments, embedded derivatives and certain fixed maturity securities. The sensitivity analysis excludes those financial instruments carried at fair value for which changes in fair value are recognized in equity, such as AFS fixed maturity securities.

Assuming a 25 basis point increase in interest rates that persists for a 12-month period, the estimated impact to spread related earnings would be an increase of approximately $30 to $40 million, and a 25 basis point decrease would generally result in a similar decrease. This is driven by a change in investment income from floating rate assets and liabilities, offset by DAC and DSI amortization and rider reserve change, all calculated without regard to future changes to assumptions. Athene is unable to make forward-looking estimates regarding the impact on net income (loss) of changes in interest rates that persist for a period of time as a result of an inability to determine how such changes will affect certain of the items that Athene characterizes as “adjustments to income (loss) before income taxes.” See Item 2. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Summary of Non-U.S. GAAP Measures for the reconciliation of net income (loss) attributable to AGM common stockholders to adjusted net income, of which spread related earnings is a component. The impact of changing rates on these adjustments is likely to be significant. See above for a discussion regarding the estimated impact on net income of an immediate, parallel increase in interest rates of 25 basis points from levels as of September 30, 2022, which discussion encompasses the impact of such an increase on certain of the adjustment items.

The models used to estimate the impact of a 25 basis point change in market interest rates incorporate numerous assumptions, require significant estimates and assume an immediate change in interest rates without any discretionary management action to counteract such a change. Consequently, potential changes in Athene’s valuations indicated by these simulations will likely be different from the actual changes experienced under any given interest rate scenarios and these differences may be material. Because Athene actively manages its assets and liabilities, the net exposure to interest rates can vary over time. However, any such decreases in the fair value of fixed maturity securities, unless related to credit concerns of the issuer requiring recognition of credit losses, would generally be realized only if Athene were required to sell such securities at losses to meet liquidity needs.

Public Equity Risk

Athene assesses public equity market risk for financial assets and financial liabilities using hypothetical stress tests and exposure analyses. Assuming all other factors are constant, if there were a decline in public equity market prices of 10% as of September 30, 2022, Athene estimates a net decrease to its pre-tax income from changes in the fair value of these financial instruments of $244 million. The net change in fair value for these financial instruments would directly impact the current period gross profits and assessments used in the calculations of DAC and DSI amortization and changes in rider reserves, resulting in an offsetting increase to Athene’s pre-tax income of $15 million. As of December 31, 2021, Athene estimates that a decline in public equity market prices of 10% would cause a net decrease to Athene’s pre-tax income from changes in the fair value of these financial instruments of $392 million with an offsetting increase to Athene’s pre-tax income of $131 million from DAC, DSI, and VOBA amortization and changes in rider reserves. The decline in the DAC, DSI, and VOBA amortization as of September 30, 2022 when compared to that as of December 31, 2021 is driven by (i) the decline in the market value of the equity options and (ii) materially different offsets stemming from DAC, DSI, and VOBA balances as a result of purchase accounting. The financial instruments included in the sensitivity analysis are carried at fair value and changes in fair value are recognized in earnings. These financial instruments include public equity investments, derivative instruments and the FIA embedded derivative.