Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE AND QUALITATIVE DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
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Our predominant exposure to market risk is related to our role as general partner or investment adviser to the Blackstone Funds and the sensitivities to movements in the fair value of their investments, including the effect on management fees, performance revenues and investment income.
Although the Blackstone Funds share many common themes, each of our alternative asset management operations runs its own investment and risk management processes, subject to our overall risk tolerance and philosophy:
| • | The investment process of our carry funds involves a detailed analysis of potential investments, and asset management teams are assigned to oversee the operations, strategic development, financing and capital deployment decisions of each portfolio investment. Key investment decisions are subject to approval by the applicable investment committee, which is comprised of Blackstone senior managing directors and senior management. |
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| • | In our capacity as adviser to certain funds in our Hedge Fund Solutions and Credit segments, we continuously monitor a variety of markets for attractive trading opportunities, applying a number of traditional and customized risk management metrics to analyze risk related to specific assets or portfolios. In addition, we perform extensive credit and cash flow analyses of borrowers, credit-based assets and underlying hedge fund managers, and have extensive asset management teams that monitor covenant compliance by, and relevant financial data of, borrowers and other obligors, asset pool performance statistics, tracking of cash payments relating to investments and ongoing analysis of the credit status of investments. |
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Effect on Fund Management Fees
Our management fees are based on (a) third parties’ capital commitments to a Blackstone Fund, (b) third parties’ capital invested in a Blackstone Fund or (c) the net asset value, or NAV, of a Blackstone Fund, as described in our Consolidated Financial Statements. Management fees will only be directly affected by short-term changes in market conditions to the extent they are based on NAV or represent permanent impairments of value. These management fees will be increased (or reduced) in direct proportion to the effect of changes in the fair value of our investments in the related funds. The proportion of our management fees that are based on NAV is dependent on the number and types of Blackstone Funds in existence and the current stage of each fund’s life cycle. For the years
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ended December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, the percentages of our fund management fees based on the NAV of the applicable funds or separately managed accounts, were as follows:
| Year Ended December 31, | ||||||||
| 2018 | 2017 | |||||||
| Fund Management Fees Based on the NAV of the Applicable Funds or Separately Managed Accounts | 38 | % | 33 | % |
Market Risk
The Blackstone Funds hold investments which are reported at fair value. Based on the fair value as of December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, we estimate that a 10% decline in fair value of the investments would result in the following declines in Management Fees, Performance Revenues, Net of Related Compensation Expense and Investment Income:
| December 31, | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 2017 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Management Fees (a) | Performance Revenues, Net of Related Compensation Expense (b) | Investment Income (b) | Management Fees (a) | Performance Revenues, Net of Related Compensation Expense (b) | Investment Income (b) | |||||||||||||||||||
| (Dollars in Thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10% Decline in Fair Value of the Investments | $ | 104,582 | $ | 1,475,206 | $ | 199,072 | $ | 95,004 | $ | 1,183,211 | $ | 171,136 |
| (a) | Represents the annualized effect of the 10% decline. |
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| (b) | Represents the reporting date effect of the 10% decline. |
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Total Assets Under Management, excluding undrawn capital commitments and the amount of capital raised for our CLOs, by segment, and the percentage amount classified as Level III investments as defined within the fair value standards of GAAP, are as follows:
| December 31, 2018 | ||||||||
| Total Assets Under Management, Excluding Undrawn Capital Commitments and the Amount of Capital Raised for CLOs | Percentage Amount Classified as Level III Investments | |||||||
| (Dollars in Thousands) | ||||||||
| Real Estate | $ | 101,396,925 | 84 | % | ||||
| Private Equity | $ | 69,014,765 | 70 | % | ||||
| Credit | $ | 73,553,005 | 34 | % |
The fair value of our investments and securities can vary significantly based on a number of factors that take into consideration the diversity of the Blackstone Funds’ investment portfolio and on a number of factors and inputs such as similar transactions, financial metrics, and industry comparatives, among others. See “Part I. Item 1A. Risk Factors” above. Also see “— Item 7. Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations — Critical Accounting Policies — Fair Value.” We believe these fair value amounts should be utilized with caution as our intent and strategy is to hold investments and securities until prevailing market conditions are beneficial for investment sales.
Investors in all of our carry funds (and certain of our credit-focused funds and funds of hedge funds) make capital commitments to those funds that we are entitled to call from those investors at any time during prescribed periods. We depend on investors fulfilling their commitments when we call capital from them in order for those funds to consummate investments and otherwise pay their related obligations when due, including management fees.
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We have not had investors fail to honor capital calls to any meaningful extent and any investor that did not fund a capital call would be subject to having a significant amount of its existing investment forfeited in that fund; however, if investors were to fail to satisfy a significant amount of capital calls for any particular fund or funds, those funds could be materially and adversely affected.
Exchange Rate Risk
The Blackstone Funds hold investments that are denominated in non-U.S. dollar currencies that may be affected by movements in the rate of exchange between the U.S. dollar and non-U.S. dollar currencies. Additionally, a portion of our management fees are denominated in non-U.S. dollar currencies. We estimate that as of December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, a 10% decline in the rate of exchange of all foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar would result in the following declines in Management Fees, Performance Revenues, Net of Related Compensation Expense and Investment Income:
| December 31, | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 2017 | |||||||||||||||||||||||
| Management Fees (a) | Performance Revenues, Net of Related Compensation Expense (b) | Investment Income (b) | Management Fees (a) | Performance Revenues, Net of Related Compensation Expense (b) | Investment Income (b) | |||||||||||||||||||
| (Dollars in Thousands) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10% Decline in the Rate of Exchange of All Foreign Currencies Against the U.S. Dollar | $ | 18,289 | $ | 339,152 | $ | 32,810 | $ | 17,301 | $ | 260,236 | $ | 32,308 |
| (a) | Represents the annualized effect of the 10% decline. |
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| (b) | Represents the reporting date effect of the 10% decline. |
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Interest Rate Risk
Blackstone has debt obligations payable that accrue interest at variable rates. Interest rate changes may therefore affect the amount of our interest payments, future earnings and cash flows. Based on our debt obligations payable as of December 31, 2018 and December 31, 2017, we estimate that interest expense relating to variable rates would increase on an annual basis, in the event interest rates were to increase by one percentage point, as follows:
| December 31, | ||||||||
| 2018 | 2017 | |||||||
| (Dollars in Thousands) | ||||||||
| Annualized Increase in Interest Expense Due to a One Percentage Point Increase in Interest Rates (a) | $ | — | $ | 28 |
| (a) | As of December 31, 2018 Blackstone had no such debt obligations payable outstanding. |
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Blackstone has a diversified portfolio of liquid assets to meet the liquidity needs of various businesses. This portfolio includes cash, open ended money market mutual funds, open ended bond mutual funds, marketable investment securities, freestanding derivative contracts, repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements and other investments. If interest rates were to increase by one percentage point, we estimate that our annualized investment
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income would decrease, offset by an estimated increase in interest income on an annual basis from interest on floating rate assets, as follows:
| December 31, | ||||||||||||||||
| 2018 | 2017 | |||||||||||||||
| Annualized Decrease in Investment Income | Annualized Increase in Interest from Floating Rate Assets | Annualized Decrease in Investment Income | Annualized Increase in Interest from Floating Rate Assets | |||||||||||||
| (Dollars in Thousands) | ||||||||||||||||
| One Percentage Point Increase in Interest Rates | $ | 6,641 | (a) | $ | 24,602 | $ | 17,526 | (a) | $ | 22,480 |
| (a) | As of December 31, 2018 and 2017, this represents 0.1% and 0.3% of our portfolio of liquid assets, respectively. |
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Blackstone has U.S. dollar and non-U.S. dollar based interest rate derivatives whose future cash flows and present value may be affected by movement in their respective underlying yield curves. We estimate that as of December 31, 2017, a one percentage point increase parallel shift in global yield curves would result in the following impact on Other Revenue:
| December 31, | ||||||||
| 2018 | 2017 | |||||||
| (Dollars in Thousands) | ||||||||
| Annualized Increase in Other Revenue Due to a One Percentage Point Increase in Interest Rates | $ | 14,210 | $ | 22,699 |
Credit Risk
Certain Blackstone Funds and the Investee Funds are subject to certain inherent risks through their investments.
Our portfolio of liquid assets contain certain credit risks including, but not limited to, exposure to uninsured deposits with financial institutions, unsecured corporate bonds and mortgage-backed securities. These exposures are actively monitored on a continuous basis and positions are reallocated based on changes in risk profile, market or economic conditions.
We estimate that our annualized investment income would decrease, if credit spreads were to increase by one percentage point, as follows:
| December 31, | ||||||||
| 2018 | 2017 | |||||||
| (Dollars in Thousands) | ||||||||
| Decrease in Annualized Investment Income Due to a One Percentage Point Increase in Credit Spreads (a) | $ | 52,051 | $ | 37,250 |
| (a) | As of December 31, 2018 and 2017, this represents 1.1% and 0.7% of our portfolio of liquid assets, respectively. |
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Certain of our entities hold derivative instruments that contain an element of risk in the event that the counterparties may be unable to meet the terms of such agreements. We minimize our risk exposure by limiting the counterparties with which we enter into contracts to banks and investment banks that meet established credit and capital guidelines. We do not expect any counterparty to default on its obligations and therefore do not expect to incur any loss due to counterparty default.
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