Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE
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Item 7A. QUANTITATIVE
QUANTITATIVE
AND QUALITATIVE
DISCLOSURES ABOUT MARKET RISK
Financial Instrument Market Risk
We and certain of our subsidiaries hold and issue derivative contracts and financial
instruments that expose our
cash flows or earnings to changes in commodity
prices, foreign currency exchange rates
or interest rates.
We
may use financial and commodity-based derivative
contracts to manage the risks produced by changes
in the
prices of natural gas, crude oil and related products;
fluctuations in interest rates and foreign currency
exchange rates; or to capture market opportunities.
Our use of derivative instruments is governed
by an “Authority Limitations” document
approved by our Board
of Directors that prohibits the use of highly leveraged
derivatives or derivative instruments without
sufficient
liquidity.
The Authority Limitations document also establishes
the Value
at Risk (VaR) limits for the
company, and compliance with these limits is monitored daily.
The Executive Vice President and Chief
Financial Officer, who reports to the Chief Executive Officer, monitors commodity price risk
and risks
resulting from foreign currency exchange rates and
interest rates.
The Commercial organization manages our
commercial marketing, optimizes our commodity
flows and positions, and monitors risks.
Commodity Price Risk
Our Commercial organization uses futures, forwards, swaps
and options in various markets to accomplish
the
following objectives:
●
Meet customer needs.
Consistent with our policy to generally
remain exposed to market prices, we
use swap contracts to convert fixed-price sales
contracts, which are often requested by natural
gas
consumers, to floating market prices.
●
Enable us to use market knowledge to capture opportunities
such as moving physical commodities to
more profitable locations and storing commodities
to capture seasonal or time premiums.
We may use
derivatives to optimize these activities.
We use a VaR
model to estimate the loss in fair value that
could potentially result on a single day from the
effect of adverse changes in market conditions on the derivative
financial instruments and derivative
commodity instruments we hold or issue, including
commodity purchases and sales contracts
recorded on the
balance sheet at December 31, 2020,
as derivative instruments.
Using Monte Carlo simulation, a 95 percent
confidence level and a one-day holding period, the
VaR
for those instruments issued or held for
trading
purposes or held for purposes other than trading
at December 31, 2020 and 2019, was immaterial
to our
consolidated cash flows and net income attributable
to ConocoPhillips.
Interest Rate Risk
The following table provides information
about our debt instruments that are sensitive to
changes in U.S.
interest rates.
The table presents principal cash flows and related
weighted-average interest rates by expected
maturity dates.
Weighted-average variable rates are based on effective rates at the reporting date.
The
carrying amount of our floating-rate debt approximates
its fair value.
A hypothetical 10 percent change in
prevailing interest rates would not have a material
impact on interest expense associated with our floating-rate
debt.
The fair value of the fixed-rate debt is measured
using prices available from a pricing service
that is
corroborated by market data.
Changes to prevailing interest rates would not
impact our cashflows associated
with fixed rate debt,
unless we elect to repurchase or retire such
debt prior to maturity.
Millions of Dollars Except as Indicated
Debt
Fixed
Average
Floating
Average
Rate
Interest
Rate
Interest
Expected Maturity Date
Maturity
Rate
Maturity
Rate
Year
-End 2020
2021
$
8.47
%
$
0.22
%
2022
2.53
1.12
2023
7.03
-
-
2024
3.51
-
-
2025
5.33
-
-
Remaining years
11,793
6.28
0.11
Total
$
13,209
$
1,083
Fair value
$
18,023
$
1,083
Year
-End 2019
2020
$
-
-
%
$
-
-
%
2021
6.24
-
-
2022
2.54
2.81
2023
7.20
-
-
2024
3.52
-
-
Remaining years
12,143
6.25
1.65
Total
$
13,188
$
Fair value
$
17,325
$
Foreign Currency Exchange Risk
We have foreign currency exchange rate risk resulting from international operations.
We do not
comprehensively hedge the exposure to currency
exchange rate changes although we
may choose to selectively
hedge certain foreign currency exchange rate exposures,
such as firm commitments for capital projects
or local
currency tax payments, dividends and cash returns from
net investments in foreign affiliates to be remitted
within the coming year, and investments in equity securities.
At December 31, 2020 and 2019, we held foreign
currency exchange forwards hedging cross-border
commercial activity and foreign currency exchange
swaps for purposes of mitigating our cash-related
exposures.
Although these forwards and swaps hedge exposures
to fluctuations in exchange rates, we elected
not to utilize hedge accounting.
As a result, the change in the fair value of these foreign
currency exchange
derivatives is recorded directly in earnings.
At December 31, 2020,
we had outstanding foreign currency exchange
forward contracts to sell $0.45 billion
CAD at $0.748 CAD against the U.S. dollar.
At December 31, 2019, we had outstanding foreign
currency
exchange forward contracts to sell $1.35 billion
CAD at $0.748 CAD against the U.S. dollar.
Based on the
assumed volatility in the fair value calculation,
the net fair value of these foreign currency
contracts at
December 31, 2020 and December 31, 2019, were
a before-tax loss of $16 million and $28 million,
respectively.
Based on an adverse hypothetical 10 percent
change in the December 2020 and December 2019
exchange rate, this would result in an additional
before-tax loss of $39 million and $115 million,
respectively.
The sensitivity analysis is based on changing
one assumption while holding all other
assumptions constant, which in practice may be
unlikely to occur, as changes in some of the assumptions may
be correlated.
The gross notional and fair value of these positions
at December 31, 2020 and 2019, were as follows:
In Millions
Foreign Currency Exchange Derivatives
Notional
Fair Value*
2020
2019
2020
2019
Sell Canadian dollar, buy U.S. dollar
CAD
1,350
(16)
(28)
Buy Canadian dollar, sell U.S. dollar
CAD
-
Sell British pound, buy euro
GBP
-
-
-
Buy British pound, sell euro
GBP
-
-
*Denominated in USD.
For additional information about our use of derivative
instruments, see Note 13—Derivative
and Financial
Instruments, in the Notes to Consolidated Financial
Statements.
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