A Dark Vector Cognition product

Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.

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Item 7A. Quantitative and Qualitative Disclosures About Market Risk.

The Company’s earnings and financial condition are exposed to interest rate risk, credit quality risk, market valuation risk, foreign currency risk, commodity risk and operational risk.

Evaluation of Interest Rate and Credit Quality Risk

The Company manages interest rate risk by seeking to maintain a tight match between the durations of assets and liabilities when appropriate. The Company manages credit quality risk by seeking to maintain high average credit quality ratings and diversified sector exposure within its debt securities portfolio. In connection with its investment and risk management objectives, the Company also uses derivative financial instruments whose market value is at least partially determined by, among other things, levels of or changes in interest rates (short-term or long-term), duration, prepayment rates, equity markets or credit ratings/spreads. The Company’s use of these derivatives is generally limited to hedging risk and has principally consisted of using interest rate swaps, treasury rate locks, forward contracts, futures contracts, warrants, put options and credit default swaps. These instruments, viewed separately, subject the Company to varying degrees of interest rate, equity price and credit risk. However, when used for hedging, the Company expects these instruments to reduce overall risk.

Investments

The Company’s investment portfolio supported the following products at December 31, 2019 and 2018:

In millions20192018
Experience-rated products$1,100$1,063
Remaining products18,58717,191
Total investments$19,687$18,254

Investment risks associated with experience-rated products generally do not impact the Company’s operating results. The risks associated with investments supporting experience-rated pension and annuity products in the large case pensions business in the Company’s Corporate/Other segment are assumed by the contract holders and not by the Company (subject to, among other things, certain minimum guarantees). Assets supporting experience-rated products may be subject to contract holder or participant withdrawals.

The debt securities in the Company’s investment portfolio had an average credit quality rating of A at both December 31, 2019 and 2018 with approximately $4.4 billion and $3.9 billion rated AAA at December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively. The debt securities that were rated below investment grade (that is, having a credit quality rating below BBB-/Baa3) were $1.2 billion and $1.1 billion at December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively (of which 4% and 6% at December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively, supported experience-rated products).

At December 31, 2019 and 2018, the Company held $333 million and $373 million, respectively, of municipal debt securities that were guaranteed by third parties, representing 2% of total investments at both December 31, 2019 and 2018. These securities had an average credit quality rating of AA and AA- at December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively, with the guarantee. These securities had an average credit quality rating of A+ and A- at December 31, 2019 and 2018, respectively, without the guarantee. The Company does not have any significant concentration of investments with third party guarantors (either direct or indirect).

The Company generally classifies debt securities as available for sale, and carries them at fair value on the consolidated balance sheets. At both December 31, 2019 and 2018, less than 1% of debt securities were valued using inputs that reflect the Company’s assumptions (categorized as Level 3 inputs in accordance with accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America). See Note 4 ‘‘Fair Value’’ included in Item 8 of this 10-K, for additional information on the methodologies and key assumptions used to determine the fair value of investments. For additional information related to investments, see Note 3 ‘‘Investments’’ included in Item 8 of this 10-K.

The Company regularly reviews debt securities in its portfolio to determine whether a decline in fair value below the cost basis or carrying value is other-than-temporary. When a debt security is in an unrealized capital loss position, the Company monitors the duration and severity of the loss to determine if sufficient market recovery can occur within a reasonable period of time. If a decline in fair value is considered other-than-temporary, the cost basis or carrying value of the debt security is written down. The write down is then bifurcated into its credit and non-credit related components. The amount of the credit-related component

is included in net income, and the amount of the non-credit related component is included in other comprehensive income (loss), unless the Company intends to sell the debt security or it is more likely than not that the Company will be required to sell the debt security prior to its anticipated recovery of the debt security’s amortized cost basis. Accounting for other-than-temporary impairment (“OTTI”) of debt securities is considered a critical accounting policy. See “Critical Accounting Policies - Other-Than-Temporary Impairment of Debt Securities” in the MD&A included in Item 7 of this 10-K for additional information.

Evaluation of Market Valuation Risks

The Company regularly evaluates its risk from market-sensitive instruments by examining, among other things, levels of or changes in interest rates (short-term or long-term), duration, prepayment rates, equity markets and/or credit ratings/spreads. The Company also regularly evaluates the appropriateness of investments relative to management-approved investment guidelines (and operates within those guidelines) and the business objectives of its portfolios.

On a quarterly basis, the Company reviews the impact of hypothetical net losses in its investment portfolio on the Company’s consolidated near-term financial condition, operating results and cash flows assuming the occurrence of certain reasonably possible changes in near-term market rates and prices. Interest rate changes (whether resulting from changes in treasury yields or credit spreads or other factors) represent the most material risk exposure category for the Company. The Company has estimated the impact on the fair value of market sensitive instruments based on the net present value of cash flows using a representative set of likely future interest rate scenarios. The assumptions used were as follows: an immediate increase of 100 basis points in interest rates (which the Company believes represents a moderately adverse scenario and is approximately equal to the historical annual volatility of interest rate movements for intermediate-term available-for-sale debt securities) and an immediate decrease of 15% in prices for domestic equity securities.

Assuming an immediate increase of 100 basis points in interest rates and an immediate decrease of 15% in the prices for domestic equity securities, the theoretical decline in the fair values of market sensitive instruments at December 31, 2019 is as follows:

•The fair value of long-term debt would decline by approximately $4.5 billion ($5.7 billion pretax). Changes in the fair value of long-term debt do not impact the Company’s operating results or financial condition.
•The theoretical reduction in the fair value of investment securities partially offset by the theoretical reduction in the fair value of interest rate sensitive liabilities would result in a net decline in fair value of approximately $420 million ($530 million pretax) related to continuing non-experience-rated products. Reductions in the fair value of investment securities would be reflected as an unrealized loss in equity, as the Company classifies these securities as available for sale. The Company does not record liabilities at fair value.

Based on overall exposure to interest rate risk and equity price risk, the Company believes that these changes in market rates and prices would not materially affect consolidated near-term financial condition, operating results or cash flows as of December 31, 2019.

Evaluation of Foreign Currency and Commodity Risk

As of each of December 31, 2019 and 2018, the Company did not have any material foreign currency exchange rate or commodity derivative instruments in place and believes its exposure to foreign currency exchange rate risk and commodity price risk is not material.

Evaluation of Operational Risks

The Company also faces certain operational risks, including risks related to information security, including cybersecurity. The Company and its vendors have experienced and continue to experience a variety of cyber attacks, and the Company and its vendors expect to continue to experience cyber attacks going forward. Among other things, the Company and its vendors have experienced automated attempts to gain access to public facing networks, brute force, SYN flood and distributed denial of service attacks, attempted malware infections, vulnerability scanning, ransomware attacks, spear-phishing campaigns, mass reconnaissance attempts, injection attempts, phishing, PHP injection and cross-site scripting. The Company also has seen an increase in attacks designed to obtain access to consumers’ accounts using illegally obtained demographic information. The Company is dedicating and will continue to dedicate significant resources and incur significant expenses to maintain and update on an ongoing basis the systems and processes that are designed to mitigate the information security risks it faces and protect the security of its computer systems, software, networks and other technology assets against attempts by unauthorized parties to obtain access to confidential information, destroy data, disrupt or degrade service, sabotage systems or cause other damage. The impact of cyber attacks has not been material to the Company’s operations or operating results through December 31, 2019. The Board and its Audit Committee (the “Audit Committee”) and Nominating and Corporate Governance Committee are regularly informed regarding the Company’s information security policies, practices and status.

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